Inflation to Rise into 2034?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation continued to surge, reaching 5.4% in September. Janet Yellen has never been right about anything and keeps calling this “transitory,” as if it will vanish in a few weeks. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is supposed to measure a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, came in at 5.4% in September from a year earlier, well beyond expectations. However, our model was projecting a rise in inflation into 2021 which is 13 years up from the November 2008 low. It is interesting how the COVID restrictions with lockdowns came in on target with our computer’s forecast. Curious how events seem to fulfill the forecast when it is done by a computer rather than human judgment.

Nevertheless, as you can see from the chart, inflation has bounced on a month/month basis, but it has not yet reached the Downtrend Line. The long-term forecast beyond a mere decade projects the historical high will be due in 2034, which should exceed all previous highs. A month/month number above 1.05% will signal that inflation is breaking out, and we will indeed make all-time record highs going into 2034.

4.3 Million Quit Jobs in August – Vaccines?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The numbers are out — 4.3 million people in the US quit their jobs in August. This is the largest number since 2000. The leading sector is hotels and restaurants. I have a friend who has a daughter who had two jobs. She worked as a waitress/bartender at night and at a health food store during the day. She was very industrious, to say the least, and quite impressive. However, she quit the health food job because they demanded a vaccine. She said the bar owner was going to impose a vaccine rule and more than 50% of the staff said they would quit.

Meanwhile, New York’s bars and restaurants are hurting for business because of the vaccine mandates. Our most honorable leaders, who are most likely taking money from Pfizer lobbyists worldwide, are realizing that resistance is not futile. You can mandate vaccines and pretend they are 100% safe, but the truth always surfaces. The people can bring down the entire system if they simply refuse to participate.

Many journalists are too busy selling Biden’s propaganda about the vaccines. The FDA admits there are risks, but they, in their sole discretion, announced they “believe” the benefits outweigh the risk without any explanation of the analysis or a single word of caution (e.g., if you have certain conditions, you should not take the vaccine) despite doing so for other vaccines. So while the press and the Biden Administration are ignoring the facts and the trend, this only raises the question: How much has Pfizer and Moderna paid you?

Jen Psaki Tells Stunning and Dangerous Lies About Transitory Inflation, Claims Price Increases Will Stop – They Won’t


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2021 | Sundance | 249 Comments

I do not expect White House Spokesperson Jennifer Psaki to understand how her bosses policies are driving massive price increases; nor do I expect Psaki to understand economics and inflationary impacts.  However, the scale of her false statements surrounding inflation are not just false, they are now dangerous.

Following the release of the consumer price index [SEE table 2], in her press briefing today, Jen Psaki outlined the White House perspective on inflation, and specifically the Fed claims surrounding “transitory inflation.”

In her statements today, Psaki referenced people comparing the prices of 2021 consumable goods to 2020 and 2019.  [Video prompted below] Within the statements, the scale of falsity is off the charts.  WATCH [Video at 19:00 to 22:42, prompted]

There is not one single thing about that three minute verbal exchange that is accurate.  Fast turn consumable goods, groceries etc., did not drop in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic.  Factually, all goods but especially consumable goods increased in price throughout the pandemic, because demand actually increased and the supply chains were unable to keep up.

Example.  A loaf of bread at $2.50 in 2019, climbed to $3.00 in 2020.  That price jumped again to $3.75 this year (2021) and will likely continue rising as monetary policy driven inflation continues devaluing our currency.

Even if, as Psaki claims, inflation slows down  (not likely) – “decelerating inflation” does not mean declining prices; it means a slower rate of price increase.   Stuff still costs more, it just costs more at a slower rate.  Consumable goods will cost more in 2022 than they do this year.  The 2022 loaf of bread likely to climb to $4.00; it will never return to the 2019 price of $2.50 because the dollar is worth less.

♦ Ask the White House: Why did Joe Biden increase food assistance benefits by 25% if inflation was transitory?

[The Consumer Price Index was released today.  The producer price index for Sept will be released tomorrow]

This massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration in combination with the spending spree.  Inflation is a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. The first group to admit what was obvious were banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the primary cause.

You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.

Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years.

With Donald Trump’s policies, we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling.  The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.

Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.

China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.

When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods.

Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.

In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so, when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S.-EU importers was the same as the outcome for U.S.-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.

In the middle of this, there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency, the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.

From 2017 through early 2020, U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where actual deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy.

For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada.  However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.

Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.

♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation.

The JoeBama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy, via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending, drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.

With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets.  Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.

Simultaneously, a lower dollar value means cheaper exports for the massive multinational conglomerates who now control our farms and farming resources (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. food and raw material at a lower price. That means less food and raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers.

It is a perfect storm.  Higher costs for imported goods (durable goods) and higher costs for domestic consumable goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological Green New Deal policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.

Annualized inflation is now around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing in the short term. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means household purchasing of durable goods drop because people have less disposable income.

Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.

This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending.

If the spending continues, the Fed keeps printing money.  The dollar continues to be weakened.  As a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.

Tucker Carlson hit this point very well last night:

Hillary Clinton Heckled as “War Criminal” During Chancellor Invocation Ceremony at Queens University in Belfast


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 25, 2021 | Sundance | 148 Comments

Hillary Clinton was feeling very full of herself yesterday as she was invoked as the first women’s chancellor at Queens University in Belfast, Northern Ireland.  However, a large protesting crowd was not so happy.  WATCH:

Hillary was being heckled by the far-left group Lasair Dhearg.

If Greta Thunberg and Damien from The Omen had a child…

Wait Until He Gets to The Vaccine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 25, 2021 | Sundance | 221 Comments

He’s got a long way to go.  But he’s slowly getting there, and he’s bringing his audience with him.  Russell Brand discovers “Russia-Gate“:

The Trump-Russia investigation was based on a fraudulent premise, purposed for use by a weaponized and politicized intelligence apparatus including the CIA, DoS, DOJ and FBI.  It is also the origin of the feces that holds the greatest risk to those who constructed the surveillance operation.

Some of the intentional misinformation stems from intelligence officials telling direct lies (ex. telling President-elect, and President Trump he was not under investigation).  Other aspects were lies of omission surrounding the Steele Dossier during the January 6th, 2017, intelligence briefing session with the President-elect in Trump Tower.

There were many misleading and false statements, with varying scales of severity, during the period from November 9th, 2016, through 2017.  The FBI, DOJ, ODNI, CIA and intelligence officials were intentionally not being direct and honest with President Trump and key members of his new administration.  Obviously their lack of honesty was a serious issue, and in some cases had serious ramifications.

The expressed finding by Robert Mueller’s two-year probe of ‘no Trump-Russia collusion, no Trump-Russia conspiracy, and no Trump-Russia obstruction’, led to some hindsight reviews by media voices where they attempted to pretend they did not know the real origination of the narrative.

However, there was also a trap laid here.  At 12:15pm, on January 20th, 2017, Obama’s outgoing National Security Advisor Susan Rice wrote a memo-to-self.  Many people have called this her “CYA” (cover your ass) memo, from the position that Susan Rice was protecting herself from consequences if the scheme against President Trump was discovered.  Here’s the email:

“On January 5, following a briefing by IC leadership on Russian hacking during the 2016 Presidential election, President Obama had a brief follow-on conversation with FBI Director Jim Corney and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates in the Oval Office. Vice President Biden and I were also present.
President Obama began the conversation by stressing his continued commitment to ensuring that every aspect of this issue is handled by the Intelligence and law enforcement communities “by the book“.

The President stressed that he is not asking about, initiating or instructing anything from a law enforcement perspective. He reiterated that our law enforcement team needs to proceed as it normally would by the book.

From a national security perspective, however, President Obama said he wants to be sure that, as we engage with the incoming team, we are mindful to ascertain if there is any reason that we cannot share information fully as it relates to Russia.

[Redacted Classified Section in original release: “Director Comey affirmed that he is proceeding “by the book” as it relates to law enforcement.” … “Comey said he does have some concerns that incoming NSA Flynn is speaking frequently with Russian Ambassador Kislyak.”  “Comey said that could be an issue as it relates to sharing senssitive information.”  “President Obama asked if Comey was saying that the NSC should not pass sensitive information related to Russia to Flynn.”  “Comey replied “potentially.””  “He added that he has no indication thus far that Flynn has passed classified information to Kislyak, but he noted that “the level of communication is unusual.”]

The President asked Corney to inform him if anything changes in the next few weeks that should affect how we share classified information with the incoming team. Corney said he would.”

Susan Rice ~ (pdf link)

As stated, many have looked at this as a “CYA” memo, but that’s not what this is.

This is a justification memo, written by an outgoing National Security Advisor Susan Rice, to document why there have been multiple false and misleading statements given to the incoming President Trump and all of his officials.

This is not a “CYA” memo, this is a justification memo for use AFTER the Trump-Russia collusion/conspiracy narrative collapsed; if the impeachment effort failed.
The “By The Book” aspect refers to President Obama and Susan Rice being told by CIA  Director John Brennan, FBI Director James Comey, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, that President Trump was the subject of an active counterintelligence investigation to determine if he was under the influence of the Russian government.

Even the timing of the memo, written 15 minutes prior to the end of the Obama administration, is ex-post-facto useful as evidence of the author’s intent.

Put aside the nonsense aspect to the origination of the investigation for a moment; that part doesn’t apply here.   Accept their position ‘as if’ it is substantive.

We are talking about Brennan, Comey, Clapper and Yates telling President Obama and NSA Susan Rice that President-elect Trump is under a counterintelligence investigation where the suspicion is that Donald J Trump is an agent of a foreign power.

Under the auspices (fraudulent though it may be), the incoming President is a counterintelligence investigation target. A potentially compromised Russian asset. Under this auspices all of the officials would be permitted to lie and mislead their target, so long as they did so “By The Book.”

That’s their justification for a lengthy series of lies and false statements.

That’s why FBI Director James Comey can lie to the President and tell him he’s not the target of the ongoing Russia investigation.  That’s the justification for keeping the accusations inside the Steele Dossier (remember, the Dossier is evidence) from the President-elect.  That’s the justification for all of the officials to lie to President Trump, and even mislead the media if needed.

The Susan Rice email is one big Justification Letter; setting the stage for all of the participants to have a plausible reason for lies to anyone and everyone.
Call out John Brennan for telling Harry Reid about the Steele Dossier during his gang-of-eight briefing, but not telling Go8 member Devin Nunes about it.  Brennan escapes by saying Nunes was on the Trump transition team; and briefing a conflicted politician on the dossier would have compromised the FBI investigation.  See how that works?

Call out James Comey for lying to President-elect Trump during the January 6th Trump Tower meeting…. Comey escapes by saying Trump was a target of the FBI investigation for potential compromise as a Russian asset; informing the target of the evidence against him would have compromised the investigation. See how that works?

Every lie, every omission, every false and/or misleading statement, must first be filtered through the “By The Book” prism of Trump being considered a Russian asset.  This is the justification trap democrats are waiting to exploit for maximum damage and diminishment of counter attack.

The “By the Book” justification, where every action could have been taken because Trump might have been an actual Russian operative, is the weapon under the camouflage tarp as the radical left lures in their political opposition.  They shrug their shoulders and say in condescending voices: ‘Well, we didn’t know; we had to be prudent‘, etc.

Getting outraged about the Obama administration’s lies, misstatements and fabrications can backfire if you don’t first think about it from their constructed frame-of-reference.

The “By the Book” framework is based on a false premise; but the action, just about any action, taken to mislead (even undermine) the incoming administration is excusable under this carefully crafted justification memo.   That’s exactly why Susan Rice wrote it; and each of the participating members knows they can use it, when needed.

However, during an interview on April 26, 2019, former Deputy National Security Advisor to President Obama, Ben Rhodes, told a journalist the Obama White House didn’t even know there was an FBI investigation into President-elect Trump or Michael Flynn.  WATCH:

If the White House didn’t know about an FBI investigation into Michael Flynn (per Ben Rhodes), then how does President Obama tell the FBI to conduct their investigation “by the book” according to Ben Rhodes’ boss, National Security Advisor Susan Rice?  See the basic problem that remains?

Arizona Senate Hearing on Results From Maricopa County Audit – 4:00pm EST Livestream Links


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 24, 2021 | Sundance | 368 Comments

Today the Arizona Senate will release its long-awaited audit report of the 2020 election in Maricopa County, AZ.  Senate President Karen Fann, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Warren Petersen, will receive the report on the Senate floor at 1:00pm local / 4:00pm EST, followed by a detailed discussion of the report findings.

Keep in mind, the AZ website is likely to get swamped by viewers, and there are likely to be massive numbers of leftist cyber trolls attempting to disrupt the broadcast.  That said, the links and embeds to livestreams are below.   The primary AZ Video Link is HERE

RSBN YouTube Livstream LINK – RSBN Rumble Livestream Link – AZ Senate Hearing Link

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Crocodile Done Dee


Posted originally on GrrrGraphics.com on SEP 23, 2021 AT 11:45 AM

Crocodile Dundee has long been a well-loved figure here in America. He represents freedom and confidence. Most Americans feel an amity with Australians and it bothers us to see them oppressed by the jaws of tyranny. Covid has been used as an excuse to cancel their freedoms. They no longer have freedom of movement. They are tracked, monitored, controlled, and insulted. Their freedom of speech is squelched. And, of course their firearms were confiscated. Walkabout Creek has been replaced with the Lock ‘Em Up Swamp.

The words “New World Order” has already been used by their top politicians, who have sent out uniformed thugs to put down rightful protests. Australians are getting the Great Reset whether they like it or not. Their Prime Minister, Scott Morrison is on the same page as Joe Biden. Dementia Joe called the Australian leader “The fella from down under.” Both leaders want to destroy freedom.

The globalist oligarchs want to repeat Australia’s fate here in the US. Our freedom of speech is being compromised. All the ‘authorities’ have to do is label free speech as ‘misinformation’ and delete our voices. They don’t bother to refute solid evidence. Instead they’ll merely claim it’s misinformation.

Our freedom of movement is under attack. The tyrants won’t give up on their vaccine passports. Our most important freedom must not be given up—ever. That’s the 2nd Amendment. Australians lack that right and you now see how the tyrants are completely unafraid of their own people.

Our best wishes to the protesters and freedom fighters down under.

— Ben Garrison

Are Former Communist Countries the Only Sensible Places?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Sep 24, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The head of Croatia fires back against a brainwashed journalist complaining that Croatia is only 50% vaccinated compared to the EU. He responds that 50% is enough. He straight-up states: “We need to know what the goal of this frenzy is!” Journalists are aiding Bill Gates and others, terrorizing the people over a virus, with a death rate under 1%, that was perhaps created in a lab to help this agenda. What is going on? We are nearing two years of this panic. The goal of eradicating this virus is absurd when it crosses from animals. That type of virus can NEVER be eliminated just like the flu or the common cold. This is just bullshit, which then clearly raises the question: What is the goal?

He said he starts the day with CNN and it makes him wonder if he is “normal or are they crazy?” He plainly stated the CNN “spreads panic,” and honestly, if I were president, I would shut CNN down and arrest all of the journalists pumping out this fear for nothing but profit. They are a national security risk and have graduated to a security risk for the entire world.

There are no investigative journalists left it seems. Just ask any specialist why they cannot cure the flu or the common cold. ANY virus that has an animal reservoir cannot be eliminated. I simply searched: “Can a virus that exists in animals ever be eradicated?” Below are the top results. I cannot believe that journalists have abandoned humanity to support Fauci, Gates, and Schwab who promote outright lies. Vaccinating the entire world will not eradicate COVID. It turns out that 40% of the deer population now has antibodies against COVID. Proof of what I am saying is that zoos are out to vaccinate the animals against COVID. So why is CNN and others terrorizing the world about COVID that has less than a 1% death rate? They are aiding the destruction of the world economy, which has begun a wave of inflation. Global food shortages threaten to kill far more people than COVID ever did. Are journalists deliberately becoming psychopaths? I would certainly argue that is the case at CNN. It takes less than five minutes to determine this has been one major lie!

White House Announces DHS No Longer Permitting Border Patrol to Use Horses


Posted originally on the conservative house on September 23, 2021 | Sundance | 187 Comments

White House propagandist and narrative engineer Jennifer Psaki informed reporters today that border patrol officers in Del Rio, Texas, would no longer be allowed to use horses during their border security operations.

A mounted border patrol officer looks like a cowboy.  Cowboys are racist symbols of oppression and represent the principles of a sovereign America.  This optic is an unapproved worldview of the open border society ideologues currently occupying the U.S. government.   Also, most mounted border patrol officers are Latino.

Deadline Monday, NY Governor Announces All Healthcare Workers Who Refuse Mandatory Vaccine Will Be Replaced With Foreign Workers ASAP


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 23, 2021 | Sundance | 409 Comments

The deadline for New York healthcare workers to take the mandatory COVID-19 “vaccine” is Monday.  A significant number of nurses, healthcare workers and those who work within the entire system of healthcare will be leaving the medical industry as a result.

While the potential vacancy rate for healthcare workers is yet undetermined -they have to wait to see how many actually leave- New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced earlier today that foreign workers will be hired to replace the U.S. workers who refuse the vaccine.

In a semi-related note, controversial New York Health Commissioner Harold Zucker -a former defender of Andrew Cuomo- announced his resignation a few hours before Governor Hochul made the announcement about replacing missing NY healthcare staff with foreign workers.  The announcement comes at 22:58 of the video below, in response to the question about both issues.  WATCH:

Kathy Hochul says the number of vaccine “holdouts” is unknown.  She has meetings scheduled for the next few days in an effort to be prepared.  She is also looking for ways to “change the healthcare licensing system” to permit out-of-state workers to help fill the void.  However, the NY legislature removed most of the unilateral authority to act under the current declared emergency, so the governor publicly says she is restricted in her authority but is “looking at ways to get around that.”

Keep in mind, the workers in question are not just nurses and direct healthcare providers; the mandate applies to everyone in the healthcare system including: clerical staff, billing offices, coders, janitors, receptionists, technology or IT staff, communication staff, cooks and cafeteria workers, in essence – everyone in the industry.