Punishing Traders for What Central Bankers Do All the Time

Bloomberg is reporting the fate of Christian Bittar who was the top trader at Deutsche Bank AG. He earned a bonus of $126 million in 2008 for betting that as the economy would melt down, banks would refuse to lend to each other until the dust settled so short-term rates would soar. While he is sitting now in prison as the UK went to find the banks in the interest rate rigging scandal, they pursued criminal charges against high-profile traders, unlike the direction that was taken in the USA.

The irony of this entire affair is that the government are criminally charging traders for manipulating interest rates, which is PRECISELY what they do all the time. Let us not forget Mario Draghi who when history is written about how the West Fell, his name will rank very high on the list. It was Drahi who have sought to push rates NEGATIVE to try to manipulate the economy to create inflation.

While traders go to prison for rigging front-running and trying to push trading levels to kick off stops, they have NOT put at risk the ENTIRE financial system. They have not even altered the trend of interest rates or markets. Compared to the deliberate manipulations by central banks, what is at risk now is the entire pension system and European banks are still sitting on the edge of a cliff with no hope of recovery so Draghi simply postpones the accounting to that be that final push. Unfortunately, central banks do not share the same fate as traders.


Mexico & the 112 Year Cycle

QUESTION: Dear Martin

As usual, I have no words to thank the sincere and incomparable work that you did for us, and almost for free. People like you should be a reference for future generations. You really are a Punk, in the best sense of the word [anti-autoritaritharism, DIY, direct action..].

I’m writing you because the last events in Spain are terrifying me.
You were writing a lot about it when the Catalonian Issue happened. I did not support it because it is creating strong division among the population for a bargain, and the leaders were (as demonstrated now) completely fake.

However, let me enumerate the latest news:

A Satiric magazine publishes a picture of a bullfighter with an ‘alien’ body and is fined with 40keur.
A rap singer is going to jail for 2.5 years for criticizing the power and political classes in a song.
– In a national art expo a picture showing catalan politicians in jail is banned.
A book explaining with names demonstrated cases of contacts of politicians in Galicia with narcos has been forbidden.

All this in the last 1.5 months

Uncountable cases of journalists fired from TVE (Spanish public television) for giving a different point of view as stated by the gov.

I live in Switzerland and I love my country but I’m afraid that I will not be back soon because of the high taxes and all these issues. However, Switzerland is not a better case. The police control is really intense also here.

I use to go to Mexico very often, and besides the critical situation, I work with really intelligent and courageous people.

Sometimes I’m thinking in abandon Europe and going to Mexico. I would like to think that they are bottoming and they will take off soon.

What do you think, cyclically speaking?

Sorry for such a lo email, and thank you very much again.

Sincere Salutations



ANSWER: The next major upheaval in Mexico appears to be on schedule for around 2029. There is a 112-year cycle perfectly in sync with the 224-year Cycle of Political Change. Nevertheless, Europe probably faces a greater risk of political upheaval than what you will see in North America. There are separatist movements everywhere from Canada and USA down into Mexico. Most people do not realize that Greenland is geographically part of North America, but is politically connected to Europe and here too there is a separatist movement to split from Europe.

We rarely hear about the internal struggle for independence within Mexico. I have visited the area Chiapas and engaged in political discussions to seek a better understanding of the issues. This is the home of the ancient Maya. Effectively, this is the home to one of the largest indigenous populations in the country with twelve federally recognized ethnicities. What was explained to me is very interesting. When the Spanis came to South America, they were interested in the lands of gold. Since there was no famed gold in that region, the Spanish never invaded that part. Therefore, you still have the indigenous Maya living there and you can distinctly tell the difference just looking at them. I was told that marriages are normally arranged by parents and Maya marry only Maya.

The Zapatista Army of National Liberation, commonly known as Zapatistas, has been a left-wing revolutionary political and militant group based in Chiapas. This is the southernmost state of Mexico. They are an armed group, formed by a large majority of Southern Mexican natives in Chiapas, who rebelled in 1994 claiming their territory in what has been called the “war against the forgotten” by the Zapatistas.

Once again, we have a line of demarcation between ethnic differences that even include language. Therefore, the position I explained about Catalonia falls in a distinct global trend. Catalonia also is distinct and have their own language. We see the same trend in Ukraine – east v west based upon ethnic differences and language. Politicians may view their countries as fiefdoms, but society moves through a grand cycle like Big Bang and the universe, There is a central point altogether and an event takes place and everything separates and moves apart. Then, gravity will overtake the movement and pull it all back inward to a central core. This is how human society has always worked throughout history. There are the separate states that they ban together typically against a foreign enemy, and then there is a union and a larger consolidated state. This pattern is true for the United States, Canada, Mexico and it has been the ides behind the European Project to federalize Europe.

The Delian League (or Athenian League) was an alliance of Greek city-states led by Athens and formed in 478 BC to liberate eastern Greek cities from Persian rule. It was to also be a defense against any possible revenge attacks from Persia after the Greek victories at Marathon, Salamis, and Plataea in the early 5th century BC. This unification of Greek city-states under Athenian rule led to resentment and finally the Peloponnesian war where Athens was defeated by Sparta and rebelling Delian League members. The number of members of the League changed over time but around 330 are recorded in tribute lists who had to pay into the central treasury much like the EU structure today. Initially, members swore to hold the same enemies and allies by taking an oath.

The actions we saw with Spain invading Catalonia were the very same reactions that Athens took against Naxos who sought to leave the Delian League in 467BC when it became obvious that the purposed to defend against the Persians no longer made sense. The League and its requirement of tribute/taxes was a major factor behind separatist movements. An example of the refusal to relinquish power can be seen when Naxos who sought to secede around 467 BC. Athens responded in dramatic fashion by attacking the island and making it a semi-dependency, albeit with a lower tribute.

I have stated many times that History is a roadmap to the future because the human response will ALWAYS be the same given the same set of circumstances. Therefore, Mexico will also split and the indigenous Maya will reclaim their independence and that may come by 2029. The Mexican Revolution began in 1910 led by Emiliano Zapata. Then in 1911, President Porfirio Diaz, who ruled as a dictator for 35 years, was overthrown and replaced with revolutionary Francisco Madero. The last major event was the adoption of the Constitution in 1917.


How Can the Majority Be Wrong if they ALL Expect Interest Rates to Rise?

QUESTION: Today most analysts think higher interest rates are on the way. If the majority is always wrong how does that play into the expectations for higher interest rates?


ANSWER: With the Federal Reserve stating they must “normalize” interest rates since 2014, of course, the majority will view that will be the trend. We are at a 5,000 low in rates historically. Naturally, the only direction is now UP, UP, and AWAY! There are two ways that they will be wrong and that has to do with their interpretation.

First, they will not comprehend just HOW fast rates will rise of WHY!

Second, they will interpret higher rates as BEARISH for equities, as they traditionally do.

Therefore, the way the MAJORITY will be wrong is not in the mere fact that rates will rise, they read the statement of the central banks. It is the interpretation of what will follow from the simple trend.

The Unsound Theory of Inflation

QUESTION: You defend central banks yet the Rothschilds when clearly Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild said: “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws.”  Any comment?


ANSWER: No problem. He never said any such thing it was completely made up. It was attributed to him in 1838 when he was already dead for 26 years. Besides that, what is very clear is that this is based on the assumption that money is fiat. The USA began to issue paper money in 1861. During the period that Mayer lived, the money supply was primarily coined.  The only plausible reference would be implied that he debased them. He was a banker and never produced the coinage.

It would be nice just for once that you bothered to actually understand the role of central banks as originally set forth. What they do today with Quantitative Easing has proven that the entire theory of an increase in money supply will be inflationary is outright BOGUS.

In every case of HYPERINFLATION, not even once did inflation ever begin by increasing the money supply. Inflation begins when PEOPLE lose CONFIDENCE in the government and they spend the currency as fast as they can or outright refuse to accept it. I have explained that the Japanese Emperor used a different approach. He DEVALUED all outstanding money to 10% of his new coinage. That led to the collapse in CONFIDENCE to the point that the people never trusted the government and as a result, the Japanese lost the ability to produce money for 600 years.

The definition of what creates inflation is entirely wrong. Even Gresham’s Law needs to be placed in context. Gresham worked in the foreign exchange markets in Amsterdam. Henry VIII debased the English coinage. But coinage traded on foreign exchange markets according to its metal content. The inflation Gresham referred to was experienced in the foreign exchange markets so what he truly observed was the decline in the British coinage value on international markets. Don’t forget, this predates the central Bank of England which was established in 1694.

The entire observation of inflation began with Gresham. However, it was extended by David Hume (1711-1776) who made observations BEFORE paper money began. This observation is not respected even today. David Hume showed why net exporting in exchange for gold currency, which then increased the domestic money supply and was hoarded by Britain, could not actually enhance wealth. Hume’s argument was essentially the monetarist quantity theory of money which would influence others over time. Prices in a country would change directly with changes in the money supply. Hume explained that as net exports increased and more gold flowed into a country to pay for them, the prices of goods in that country would rise with the economic boom. The USA saw this through the course of World War I and World War II ending up with 76% of the world’s official gold reserves. Consequently, an increased flow of gold into England would not necessarily increase England’s wealth substantially was Hume’s argument because the increase in domestic prices due to the gold inflow would discourage exports and encourage imports. Hence, this trend then counter-reacts with trade and automatically this will start limiting the amount by which exports would exceed imports. The more money that flowed into a country, like the USA, the higher the prices and this would then reduce exports. Adam Smith’s attack on mercantilism and argument for free trade, strangely ignored Hume’s argument. Hume’s view of capital flows can be verified throughout history and is really the underlying foundation of the balance-of-payments issues that Trump fails to understand. Hume also advanced the idea of “creeping inflation” that takes placed with a gradual increase in the money supply that would lead to economic growth. This is largely correct, but money supply growth must also keep place with population growth or you will produce deflation – more people and less money to go around.

With the introduction of paper money during the mid to late 18th century, the relationship between the over-supply of banknotes and a resulting depreciation in their value was noted by earlier classical economists such as David Ricardo (1772-1823). However, the issue of paper money during the American Colonial period must also take into consideration two factors: (1) England starved America and extracted money assuming they were using Spanish coinage, and (2) the American Revolution which was funded by creating paper money. There was again a lack of CONFIDENCE to the extent that when the American Revolution ended, the Constitution prohibited States from issuing money again and federally no paper money was issued again until the American Civil War in 1861.

Therefore, most HYPERINFLATION periods are associated with war like the American and French experiences. However, in Lydia, the very first government to issue coins, we see the debasement unfold as a direct result of war. Therefore, there is no evidence of hyperinflation unfolding absent a collapse in the CONFIDENCE of the people in that government.

In the case of Venezuela, obviously there has been a collapse in CONFIDENCE. The same was true in Zimbabwe after it seized all the property of white farmers. Foreign investors refused to ever participate again.

The German HYPERINFLATION came with the Communist Revolution in 1918. That sent capital into hiding and fled overseas, primarily to the United States.

Defining a Cycle Inversion

QUESTION: Can you define cycle inversion and answer the below?

1. What are the specific requirements to confirm a cycle inversion? I have found three elements discussed in the writings, but I am somewhat unclear whether all must be present to confirm a cyclical inversion.

i. The period following the turning point must close higher than the prior period.

ii. The period following the turning point must exceed the high of the prior period.

iii. The period following the turning point must not breach the low of the prior period.

Kindly elaborate.

2. Can a cyclical inversion be confirmed beyond the month immediately following the turning point? Notably, the turning points referenced above have been evenly spaced, each separated by a single month. What if each of the turning points were separated by 5 or 6 months?

Could a high on Month 3 (which is not itself a turning point, but rather mid-way between two turning points) indicate a cycle inversion? Wouldn’t a high on Month 3 (which is not a turning point) suggest an error in the array?



ANSWER: In the immediate instance, simply exceeding the January high would imply the next turning point would invert into a high. Corrections are confined to a maximum of 3 timing intervals, which means April. A failure to make new highs and a penetration of the February low after April would imply a correction moving into probably July. Just exceeding the January high intraday MAY BE good enough to qualify as a cycle inversion, but typically you need to CLOSE ABOVE it or it could be just a double top formation. The same is true in reverse with lows.

You can normally assume a cycle inversion once that event is exceeded or broken on a closing basis. We previously warned that exceeding the November high is December would lead to a January high. That confirmed the Cycle Inversion. The same will be true with respect to the January high.

The only time an Array would appear to be wrong where the TOP line fails to produce a definitive turning point tends to be when there is a Directional Change say the month before. A Directional Change can influence and become dominant. However, this is usually when a given market is being influenced by another. A major panic in one important economy can become a SUPERPOSITION influence distorting a local market by a more dominant global trend. This is still rare. The Array typically picks this up in advance. The Array can change shifting the turning point from one month to the next because of such a Superposition Principle.

This will really have to be answered in a more detailed report on cycles.

Visualizing Cycles in Your Mind Helps to Comprehend How to Respond to Events

QUESTION: Is there a way to teach cycles that will enable others to see them more easily?

ANSWER: Oh yes. Students who developed visual mental models of cyclical principles flourish, while students who tried to learn cycles by rote invariably struggled. The mental picture is critical. It is a roadmap to the future. Just visualize the Economic Confidence Model and it will help to comprehend the business cycle and where you are at any given moment.

For example, in 2007 when everyone is buying houses, you can keep this in mind and take a pause, encouraging yourself to wait until next year. The same is true for expanding your business. The first time I really used this model in that decision process was 1976. I signed a lease for space and I got them to give me a 10-year lease. I negotiated the elimination of a CPI clause. Everyone was talking about a depression. My accountant thought I was nuts. I told him this model was never wrong and I was going with it. The space I took at $10 a square foot was $45 by 1980.

This model can provide tremendous guidance if you keep it visualized in your mind.

Roger Scruton: The Utopian Fallacy and The Planning Fallacy

Published on Sep 27, 2017

Sir Roger Vernon Scruton is an English philosopher and writer who specialises in aesthetics and political philosophy, particularly in the furtherance of traditionalist conservative views. In recent years he taught courses in Buckingham University, Oxford University and University of St. Andrews. In this clip he talks about two fallacies of organizing society: The Utopian Fallacy and The Planning Fallacy. Complete video quoted under fair use: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ytp1O… — This channel aims at extracting central points of presentations into short clips. The topics cover the problems of leftist ideology and the consequences for society.

What We Face Requires a Cyclical Perspective



To survive what we face clearly requires an open mind to understand that everything in nature moves through a cyclical pattern. The majority of people see the world only in a linear fashion. Politicians proclaim they can change the world and create perpetual prosperity and/or punish those that cause recessions. Naturally, there are no mirrors in government so the culprit must always exist outside of their shenanigans.

I often get the question WHAT IF everyone followed my work. The answer is simple. That is IMPOSSIBLE. That is like saying why can we all not just vote the same. There will never be a single political party that the people would vote for because there are differences of opinion. The majority of society ignores history because that is the past and somehow irrelevant because we are more sophisticated today and those people ran around in diapers chucking spears at each other. This merely ensures that history repeats because they are far too ignorant to comprehend that life is like a Shakespeare play. It has been performed for hundreds of years and the only thing that changes has been the actors.

Human society as a whole expects a linear life of happily ever after and when that fails, they advocate punishing the person responsible. They cannot dare investigate that just perhaps the world works in a far more complicated manner than just that.

Those who think only linear cannot avoid the crash and burn. Those who see the world cyclically understand there is a time and place for everything.

Cycles in Time – Origin of the Theory & Why It Was Ignored in Western Culture

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Just about every culture outside of Christianity believed in the cyclical aspects of time and nature. Do you have any idea why Western Christian culture failed to incorporate cyclical theory?


ANSWER: If you actually read the Bible, you will find the very similar cyclical references and numbers. It just seems that the mainstream interpretation overlooked it post Dark Age. There is so much in there from the maxim that there is a time and place for everything to the Revelations that forecast the Devil will be cast into the abyss for 1,000 years and then it will begin again between the tribes of God and Magog. That describes a cycle. For some reason, the general religious teaching fails to point that aspect out. This seems to be rooted in the prejudice of the Dark Age for that is clearly a line of demarcation in every field of knowledge that was lost after the barbarian invasions.

Throughout the centuries, there has been an understanding of cycles that have come down to the present age through the corridors of time. There has been a knowledge that comes from the dim ages of past eras, that seems to emanate from all the races, as well as the different schools of thought. Just what is the origin of this basic understanding of cycles cannot be traced to some specific teaching by a single culture or person. There is unquestionably an unbroken direct line throughout the ages that extend further back than even the time of Greeks who the Romans viewed a knowledgeable. There are references to cycles that we find in many extracts that even go back to the ancient Egypt and Chaldea. These appear to have influenced the Pythagoras (about 500 bc) and Ancient Grecian arcane schools of philosophy. Where did they come from? The answer seems to stretch back to still more remote and arcane investigations of the universe and the heavens.

There are traces of cyclical theory in the arcane teachings in the records of Persia and Medea. The inspiration for the original philosophical teaching of Gautama, who was the founder of Buddhism, not religion, seems to originate from even older arcane sources. Traces are also to be found in the Hebrew teachings of the “Kabbalah” and the “Zohar.” The Greeks clearly relied upon the arcane teaching undoubtedly obtained directly from Egyptian sources through Pythagoras. The relation connection between the early Grecian teaching and philosophies with the even older school of ancient Egypt predating the Greeks by thousands of years. Pythagoras is known to have received instruction from Egyptian and Persian hierophants, who were priests in ancient that interpreted sacred mysteries or esoteric principles. Many believed that the origin was even yet an older understanding.

The origins of Western astronomy and astrology are interconnected and can be found in Mesopotamia. Here is a clay tablet from 164BC recording the observation of Haley’s Comet which moved through the heavens on a cyclical path. Cycles certainly were understood by merely observing the heavens. The Babylonians conducted a major investigation recording when events in the heavens took place, what were the effects on Earth. Obviously, Western efforts at the beginning of sciences are descendants in a direct line from the work of the late Babylonian astronomers, yet extend even further back to Sumerian astronomy. The earliest Babylonian star catalogues date back to about 1200 BC. Many star names appear in Sumerian, which implies that there is a continuity reaching into the Early Bronze Age.

Hipparchus of Nicaea (c. 190 – 120 bc) was a Greek astronomer, geographer, and mathematician who first discovered the cyclical nature of the universe being the Precession of the Equinoxes which is the journey of our solar system around the center of the universe taking 25,800 years. He is also known as the father of trigonometry, and he compiled a comprehensive star catalogue. He discovered the Precession of the Equinoxes by looking at the star charts of the Babylonians about 1,000 years before his time and noticed how the heavens had moved. The Maya also discovered the Precession of the Equinoxes and studied TIME, which I have written about – The Mayan Discovery of Time.

We have to understand that during the Dark Ages, there was a lot of superstition. Mathematics was seen as the work of pagans and thus the Devil. This meant that to guide a ship, a Christian could not engage in such calculations. This is why the Jews were captains of ships or navigators, as well as bankers. Fibonacci brought back math and numbers from the Arabs and this was acceptable for it was used in gambling. Much of the early mathematicians were clandestinely hired by royalty to win at gambling – the early card counters.

Bathing also was shunned in much of Europe during the  Middle Ages because Roman baths were generally public where mixed sexes attended and often they were frequented by prostitutes or frequent sex. During the 4th and 5th centuries, after the time of Constantine I the Great, Christian authorities allowed people to bathe for cleanliness and health. However, Christians routinely condemned attendance to public bathhouses for pleasure and condemned women going to bathhouses that had mixed facilities. Generally, over time, more restrictions appeared and finally, Christians were prohibited from bathing naked at all. The Church began to disapprove of any “excessive” indulgence in the habit of bathing. Over the course of time, this original association of a bathhouse with prostitution culminated in the Medieval Church authorities proclaiming that public bathing led to immorality, promiscuous sex, and diseases. You would never say you went to take a bath, it was implied you had sex.

Without question, knowledge evaporated during the Dark Ages and superstitions replaced much. Most of the old books had been lost by the invasions of various barbarian tribes. Much of the knowledge resurfaced from three primary sources. First, the fall of Constantinople to the Turks in 1453 saw the scholars fled to Rome and began opening up schools. Secondly, much of the sources of ancient books were preserved by the Arabs and made their way back to Europe. The third source, some have called it How the Irish Saved Civilization. It may be called the Italian Renaissance, but it was the century when ancient Greek and Latin manuscripts preserved in Irish monasteries were discovered and read and discussed once again thus paving the way for the Renaissance. This was the rebirth of antiquity which, in synthesis with Christianity, produced a unique new awakened civilization. By the time of the American Revolution, the Founders were mesmerized by the writings of ancient Rome and sought to overthrow the monarchy as they did and formed a Republic.

Therefore, it is of no surprise that Christianity failed to comprehend the cyclical aspect that ran through the veins of ancient knowledge. Throughout the Bible, there are numerous references to cycles and measuring things in seven or multiples of seven from creating the world in seven days to a woman’s menstrual cycle lasting 7 days. There are seven notes on a piano. We just have not bothered to look at the cyclical nature preserved with Christianity because of the prejudices formed during the Dark Ages. Any hint of using math was seen as the Devil’s work. This is why you also see so many ancient statues that are beheaded because they assumed any statue was a pagan god. The Dark Age was a period of true ignorance.