The Consent of The Governed…


In a video spreading quickly on social media, a Seattle man is shown attempting to speak to the Seattle City Council. What comes next highlights how the ruling class view the electorate… WATCH:

The Business Cycle


Armstrong Economics Models

Defining the Business Cycle

BusinessCycle-Waves of Creative Destruction

By Martin Armstrong

There are those that adamantly deny the existence of a Business Cycle for one simple reason; if a regular Business Cycle exists, then man and his government, driven by special interests, are incapable of manipulating its outcome. The entire foundation of Marxism was the recognition of the Business Cycle and the idea that it could be eliminated by confiscating all the wealth of the people. Even John Maynard Keynes(1883–1946) followed this basic tenet of Karl Marx (1818–1883) and assumed that government had a role it could play in preventing the Business Cycle from rising and falling. Yet in the midst of such adversity, what these ideas ignored is that man learns from his mistakes as an individual as well as a group. It has been through the Business Cycle that all advancement and thus economic evolution emerges. Joseph Schumpeter (1883–1950) called these Business Cycle events – Waves of Creative Destruction. Unless oil rises in price to excessively high price levels, alternative fuels will never be developed. There must be a viable economic foundation to open the door to whatever new alternative might exist. This becomes the economic evolution within society.

 

This assumption that man is even capable of altering the Business Cycle at will is the delusion of demigods. Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expressed in his 1979 Rediscovery of the Business Cycle:

“Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment. … By the early 1970s, the persistence of inflationary pressures, even in the face of mild recession, began to flash some danger signals; the responses of the economy to the twisting of the dials of monetary and fiscal policy no longer seemed quite so predictable. But it was not until the events of 1974 and 1975, when a recession sprung on an unsuspecting world with an intensity unmatched in the post-World War II period, that the lessons of the ‘New Economics’ were seriously challenged.”

Burns Arthur

Keynes-5Even the previous Chairman of the Federal Reserve Arthur Burns (1904-1987) shared the same view. Government with all its power and endorsement of John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) who argued that the economy can be managed to eliminate the Business Cycle, has been unable to prevent recessions and economic booms.

AmBusCycle-1

Indeed, the Business Cycle is as regular as the four seasons for even weather is incorporated within it. As weather has fluctuated according to a 300-year cycle in the energy output of the sun, mankind has been driven hither and yon in search of better weather and food supply. Thus, migration throughout the world has also been a byproduct of the Business Cycle. Even if we look at the economic composition of society since the late 1700s, we can see how nothing remains stagnant but is always captured within the fluctuations of the Business Cycle.

CW-FORCETo a large extent, society was still 70% agrarian in major countries during the mid-19th century. By 1900, still about 41% of the civil work force was employed in agriculture, which fell to 3% finally by 1980. Consequently, one can neither manipulate the weather nor dictate to God what he prefers to see economically. Simply put, you cannot pass a law to prevent droughts or make it rain.

Bus-Cyc1795-1945

During the 19th century, there were great waves of innovation that certainly helped to bring about recoveries within the U.S. economy. Nonetheless, while these stages of the Industrial Revolution were unfolding to propel the economy out of the depths of recession or depression, money supply was also unpredictable. Because the monetary standard was gold at the time, this cause havoc with the economy for great waves of inflation were unleashed upon the population purely as a factor of new discovery. There was the 1849 Gold Rush is California. This was followed by the Australian Gold Rush where between 1851 and 1861, Australia produced one third of the world’s new gold supply. The silver discoveries in Colorado took place in 1864 and this eventually fueled the huge inflationary boom flooding the economy with silver dollars after 1878 that led to the Panic of 1893. Then in Alaska gold was discovered in large quantities in the Klondike on August 16, 1896. This created another great expansion of money supply. These were similar devastating economic booms and busts  to the great import of precious metals from the New World by Spain that sparked massive inflation for Europe during the 16th and 17th Centuries that resulted in the bankruptcy of Spain.

ECO-1895-MA

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a refined theory of the Business Cycle by Martin Armstrong. The Business Cycle has been observed by many over the centuries and the driving mechanism is indeed complex, but it certainly incorporates many aspects from the repetitive forces of nature as in the changing seasons to the human passions of man that to a large extent result in the repetitive forces driven by the passions of man.

PRESELEC-3

Everything is incorporated within the Business Cycle from weather to politics. Nothing moves in a straight line. Even your heart beats in a cycle. Nothing is free of a cycle as long as it lives.

Dec&Fall-Silver

If we look at the Roman Empire, we see the same cyclical forces at work. There is in fact no Empire, Nation, or City-State that has survived the ravages of time and circumstance for all societies are buried within a common grave

Understanding the ECM


From Armstrong Economics Models

Martin Armstrong We are Now Alone

The key to comprehending the Global Economy lies in the realization that we are not alone. Everything is connected in an intricate dynamic nonlinear network where the slightest change in one region can set in motion a ripple effect of dramatic proportions around the world. Understanding this dynamic nonlinear global network is the first step in restructuring government and our idea of managing our political-social-economy.

The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends. For example, the wave that peaked in 1929 was a PRIVATE wave where people had great confidence in the private sector. When the crash came, we turned toward the government creating a more conservative wave of PUBLIC investment where bonds do better than stocks.

The peak of that PUBLIC wave was marketed by the peak in interest rates during March 1981. Confidence shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and the Dow Jones finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. The takeover boom began as stocks had been ignored during the PUBLIC wave and actually bottomed in 1977 from a book value perspective. The takeover boom was caused by the realization that you could buy companies, sell there assets, and double your money. Stocks were seriously undervalued.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts. Gold has a 8 year cycle that is fractal building into a 64 year cycle. It peaked in 1980 and declined for 19 years until its model turned in 1998. Because gold has been used as money periodically, you must understand that in a gold standard, inflation means gold declines, whereas it is the opposite during a free market. Therefore, while the 64 year model shows an idealized peak for 1998, it is a turning point rather than a particular high of low. The low in gold at that time sets it up for its ultimate high against government 64 years later.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration. Hence, 1929 was a concentration of capital in the USA as money fled Europe and correctly so since they by and large defaulted on their national debts in 1931. This drove the dollar to historic highs, confused politicians who then adopted protectionism, all because capital was fleeing. Today, capital is fleeing Europe in fear of defaults once again.

Its proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

This is why there was a bubble top in US in 1929 and 1989 in Japan. It is global capital flows. Each market has its own cycle that is separate and unique. It is when that individual market lines up with the ECM that you get the big moves.


The 2007.15 turning point picked precisely to the day the peak in the real estate indexes. That was the real turning point. The pressed called it Armstrong’s Revenge. But this is simply how these function. Capital concentrates into a single sector within a single region. It is that concentration of capital that makes that market explode.

The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. This is a frequency that is inherent in everything and is fractal in nature. Its proper use is determining the shifts in capital flows to yield the boom bust cycle in the economy (global investment). It is by no means a universal model for every market. Cycle duration in Agriculture tend to be shorter and more volatile because they are also lined up with weather. The markets in financials (stocks & bonds) tend to be the longer than commodities, with the longest cycle duration being real estate.

This cycle has been present even in ancient data. So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live

The Economic Confidence Model


From Armstrong Economics Models

ECM-Wave-2011-2020The business Cycle is something everyone admits exists, yet they refuse to accept that it can be defined and forecast with accuracy.  The future to most seems to be an intangible part of time itself.  It has no shape, no definition, no substance, yet politicians claim vote for them and they will force the future to comply with your desires. Nonetheless, simultaneously they argue that the future cannot be measured for we do not know its limitations or its boundaries. The future is very much an intangible, yet not when it comes to soliciting votes.

Fortuna-2Yet is it true that we do not know whether there lies ahead thousands of years or if tomorrow may exhaust the supply of time held within future’s grasp. The Roman goddess Fortuna was pictured holding a cornucopia in one arm with the other on the rudder of ship symbolizing she could change the course of your future any time she so pleased. Only the past and the present are tangible. They can be measured, studied, written about, philosophized about or even ignored for that matter. Yet the past and present remain the quantified tangible part of time itself for they are the only surviving evidence that time even exists.

Burns Arthur

Nevertheless, there were two former Federal Reserve Chairmen Arthur Burns and Paul Volcker have concede that the business has defeated all attempt to manipulate society. Paul Volcker even called it the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle The entire theory that government can steer the economy has been proven to be so wrong it is no longer funny.

Throughout recorded time, man has pursued an unrelenting search of some method, some scheme that would steal the very secrets held captive by the future. Mankind’s pursuit of the future has not only caused him to search the far corners of the world, but that of the universe as well.

Delphi-5
In ancient times, men of celebrated wisdom and stature would go to great lengths to travel from the remotest parts of the Hellenistic world to listen to the riddles spoken by a virgin in the lofty mountain tops at Delphi. The tradition of consulting the oracle at Delphi persisted throughout the centuries. The oracle of Delphi compelled even the emperors of Rome hundreds of years later to embark on that very same pilgrimage in search of the answers to the future.

Within every society, man has sought after the illusive secrets that he has envisioned being held captive in a golden cage by the future. Human kind has sought not merely oracles, but fortune tellers, sibyls, soothsayers, seers, mystics, and some noted charlatans and has listened to the interpretations of everything from tarot cards, the entrails of animals they kill, the flight of an owl, to the path of a comet in the night sky. The secrets of the future have forged the human soul into the supernatural.

From a purely objective viewpoint, humankind has stumbled upon curious means that have had some success. Astrology has divided man and his very personality into twelve sun signs. Upon close inspection, although this science is far from being completely accurate, one will notice a sense of striking reality. Parts of this are amazingly accurate in assigning traits and even predicting the future in regards to an individual’s emotions.

Too often we are compelled to make fun of or shun new concepts. Many people believe completely in the occult and will testify to the accuracy of tarot cards and astrological charts. It is said that Napoleon and Hitler both directed their many battles in coordination with the readings and predictions derived from the stars. Such methods obviously are not completely accurate or today we would have been ruled by Adolph Hitler, Jr. or Napoleon X.

 

But nevertheless, there is some sense of truth that lies hidden within the stars. Is it possible that man did indeed stumble gracefully upon some mystical force? The universe itself was, after all, conceived upon a pattern of cycle. If it were not for this cyclical pattern, we would be unable to predict such common place events as winter, summer, spring and fall. Even everyday events such as watching the weather on television comes from a a study of its past or cyclical movements. With the study of the past, man has attained some success in forecasting the future.

The key to comprehending the Global Economy lies in the realization that we are not alone. Everything is connected in an intricate dynamic nonlinear network where the slightest change in one region can set in motion a ripple effect of dramatic proportions around the world. Understanding this dynamic nonlinear global network is the first step in restructuring government and our idea of managing our political-social-economy.

The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends. For example, the wave that peaked in 1929 was a PRIVATE wave where people had great confidence in the private sector. When the crash came, we turned toward the government creating a more conservative wave of PUBLIC investment where bonds do better than stocks.

The peak of that PUBLIC wave was marketed by the peak in interest rates during March 1981. Confidence shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and the Dow Jones finally broke through the 1,000 barrier. The takeover boom began as stocks had been ignored during the PUBLIC wave and actually bottomed in 1977 from a book value perspective. The takeover boom was caused by the realization that you could buy companies, sell there assets, and double your money. Stocks were seriously undervalued.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts. Gold has a 8 year cycle that is fractal building into a 64 year cycle. It peaked in 1980 and declined for 19 years until its model turned in 1998. Because gold has been used as money periodically, you must understand that in a gold standard, inflation means gold declines, whereas it is the opposite during a free market. Therefore, while the 64 year model shows an idealized peak for 1998, it is a turning point rather than a particular high of low. The low in gold at that time sets it up for its ultimate high against government 64 years later.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration. Hence, 1929 was a concentration of capital in the USA as money fled Europe and correctly so since they by and large defaulted on their national debts in 1931. This drove the dollar to historic highs, confused politicians who then adopted protectionism, all because capital was fleeing. Today, capital is fleeing Europe in fear of defaults once again.

Its proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

This is why there was a bubble top in US in 1929 and 1989 in Japan. It is global capital flows. Each market has its own cycle that is separate and unique. It is when that individual market lines up with the ECM that you get the big moves.


The 2007.15 turning point picked precisely to the day the peak in the real estate indexes. That was the real turning point. The pressed called it Armstrong’s Revenge. But this is simply how these function. Capital concentrates into a single sector within a single region. It is that concentration of capital that makes that market explode.

The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. This is a frequency that is inherent in everything and is fractal in nature. Its proper use is determining the shifts in capital flows to yield the boom bust cycle in the economy (global investment). It is by no means a universal model for every market. Cycle duration in Agriculture tend to be shorter and more volatile because they are also lined up with weather. The markets in financials (stocks & bonds) tend to be the longer than commodities, with the longest cycle duration being real estate.

This cycle has been present even in ancient data. So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live.

Bitcoin v Gold


QUESTION: Do you think that Bitcoin will replace gold as some people claim it is some new reserve asset?

Thank you for being the voice of reason in the middle of all these people p[reaching their own position.

GD

ANSWER: That is really a bizarre question. I do not see how that is possible. As far as it becoming a reserve asset that surpasses everything else, I would have to say that is not plausible. These are proposals propagated clearly by retail people involved in the conspiracy world. Even if we look at the German hyperinflation, the PRIMARY assets to survive was real estate. That became the backing of the replacement currency.

 

Money itself is NEVER a store of wealth. It rises and falls against tangible assets. I have stated plenty of times that Bitcoin is a trading vehicle — nothing more. Just look at the chart. This fluctuates like everything else. That alone proves it will never be some mythical store of value or reserve assets. Our Energy Models have turned negative so it has squeezed out most of the excess which would allow it to make a rally if it exceeds the Weekly Bullish Reversals (see Socrates report for further details — available to subscribers only).

It does not matter what you are talking about. ABSOLUTELY NO instrument will ever be the main “reserve asset” for people will always disagree. There will be people who cling to gold, others to stocks or real estate, and then we have the sublime fools who will hold government debt. You will never convince everyone to create a single reserve asset.

These are usually the rantings of people unfamiliar with how the world economy really functions. Even central banks hold dollars but in bonds to earn interest. They do not hold physical paper dollars. When they were leasing out gold to earn some income, these same people accused them of suppressing the market in a conspiracy.

Institutions need to earn some income. This is why they do not hold gold. Gold shares they can’t hold but bullion must be lent out to earn income. How are they going to hold Bitcoin that pays no interest and fluctuates like any other commodity?

What these people preach sounds great to the retail market who is just looking to make capital gains. But institutions cannot function that way. Pension funds need income to make payments. They can no more hold Bitcoin than gold bullion in a vault without income.

 

Sketchy Cesar Sayoc Pleads Guilty to Federal Charges of Mailing “pipe bombs”…


Everything about last year’s headline story just two-weeks before the mid-term election was weird; including the refusal of the FBI to state what ‘specifically’ was the material suspect Cesar Sayoc was accused of using to create his Acme looking pipe bombs.

[Full Indictment Here]

You might remember: FBI Director Christopher Wray outlined during his remarks that the devices consisted of PVC pipe, clocks, batteries, wiring and “energetic material that can become combustible when subjected to heat or friction”.

The FBI director went out of his way to state: “these were not hoax devices.”  The DOJ then moved to seal all court filings and the case against the nut continued behind the curtain of ‘national security’.  Suspect Cesar Sayoc was scheduled to go on trial this summer on charges relating to the pipe bombs.  However, today he entered a guilty plea before a federal judge in New York.

(Via Washington Post) Cesar Sayoc, the Florida man accused of mailing explosive devices to more than a dozen politicians and media figures who have been critical of President Trump, pleaded guilty Thursday in federal court.

Sayoc, 57, was arrested and charged in October after a series of possible explosive devices were sent to former president Barack Obama, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and the news network CNN, among others. Officials said he sent a total of 16 devices to 13 people across the country.

On Thursday, he appeared in a Manhattan court room and read from a brief written statement in a quiet, raspy voice. Sayoc acknowledging that he created the devices and sent them in the mail.

“I knew these actions were wrong. I’m extremely sorry,” Sayoc said. He briefly lost his composure at one point while speaking, prompting his attorneys to rub his back.

Responding to a question from U.S. District Judge Jed S. Rakoff, Sayoc said: “I was aware of the risk that they would explode.”

Sayoc’s guilty plea had been anticipated since his court docket showed last week that a pretrial conference scheduled for Thursday had been changed to a “plea” hearing. He had previously pleaded not guilty. (read more)

 

Thoroughly-Modern Bernie: Sanders Campaign Hires Women…in 2019!


Published on Mar 21, 2019

SUBSCRIBED 122K

Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign crowed this week about hiring women for 10 of 15 newly-announced staff positions. You recall that presidential candidate Mitt Romney got roasted in the Left-wing media when he said his staff had received “binders full of women” as candidates to staff the executive office when he was governor in Massachusetts. Why would Democrats even need to brag about this in 2019? Shouldn’t they have been doing this since they aligned with feminists in the 1970s? Right Angle is a production of the Members at http://BillWhittle.com