Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events


COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.
Thanks

S

REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction.  They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.

I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.

 

The Difference between 2020 and 2032


QUESTION: Hi Martin,

My girlfriend brought up a point about your work during coffee this morning. Basically, she’s confused about the two dates you often mention, 2020 and 2032. She wants to know which date (2020, 2032) you expect the markets move into crises mode due to the lack of confidence in government. I tried to explain but my insight wasn’t good enough.

Could you explain in a future blog the difference between these dates and what you (Socrates) expect to happen during these points in time?

Thanks,
J

ANSWER: The 2032 date is the conclusion of this Private Wave. That is when the power of the West will begin to shift to China for the next cycle that begins thereafter. The 2020 date is when the confidence begins to noticeably begin to turn down for the AVERAGE person.  You can “feel” it in the air already. What the Democrats have done is simply unbelievable. Sure the people who hate Trump cheer. But they fail to understand the system. Whatever they do to the Republicans sets the stage for what will be considered “normal” for the Republicans to do to the Democrats if power shifts.

I have explained that the Democratic victory in the House was really a disaster for this has allowed nothing but the next two years to be confrontation as we are witnessing on the funding of the wall which is only $5.7 billion. In Fiscal Year 2019, the federal budget will be $4.407 trillion. The U.S. government estimates it will receive $3.422 trillion in revenue. That creates a $985 billion deficit for October 1st, 2018 through September 30, 2019. Not only is this less than a single week’s interest payment of $6.7 billion, it is .001% of the annual budget. It is so meaningless it illustrates my point. The Democrats think all they have to do is demonize Trump and OPPOSE absolutely everything he proposes to win the White House in 2020.

We will be running the computer models on the 2020 election. But preliminary indications show that we will see a sharp rise in violence. Neither side will accept the results.

Central Banks v Clearing


Delos, First Central Bank

QUESTION: Dear Martin

Wonder if you have any insights as to the history of the bank clearing process.
Was the clearing process created mainly so banks could play games and earn interest with peoples’ money
with the reasoning that it was to prevent money laundering?

With technological advances today, one can accept an hour or two for automatic name and account number checks to happen
but 3-7 days seems ridiculous.

Any insights to the creation of the clearing process would be enlightening.

Thank you again

KW

ANSWER: The function of bank clearing began with giro-banking, which originated in the Temple of Delos in Greece. The term refers to the circulation of money. It originated where you could write a check to one person and transfer the payment to their account at the same bank. Effectively, in ancient Greece, you would have an account at the Temple in Delos and instruct a transfer to their account in the Temple. The Romans adopted this concept and thus Roman banking was born.

A central bank emerged after the Dark Ages in the early modern history as a government or state-owned banks. The Dutch were pioneers and financial innovators who not only created this state banking concept, but they also invented insurance. The Wisselbank was the first such bank in Amsterdam which was founded in the Dutch Republic during 1609. The Wisselbank became the model of the central banking system and it spread throughout Europe; first in 1668 in Sweden known as the Sveriges Riksbank and then the Bank of England in 1694.

When smaller private banks began to pop up, the state-owned banks emerged as clearing banks where transfers between the accounts at the central bank took place the same as they did between accounts in ancient Delos.

The Wisselbank actually collapsed in 1790 after it was revealed that the deposits have been used secretly to fund the Dutch East India Company. The manipulation was that they represented themselves as just holding money for safe-keeping. They did not lend money out. So when the bank failed and they had been using the money to fund the Dutch East India Company, the city had to bail out the bank and stand behind the losses.

To eliminate cash, the ECB has a secret project to provide instantaneous transfers for each transaction. Therefore, the central bank was simply a state-owned bank whereas a clearing bank was one where all banks must clear transactions

The Wave of Illegal Aliens Converge on Los Angeles


There is a major battle going on in Southern California as all the people who have come across the border but have no place live. All the posturing against Trump calling him a racist for wanting to put up a wall to stop the influx of illegal aliens and drugs, the real test will be to see just how the Democrats will handle reality in California. The massive increase in transient encampments that now are right in front of million dollar homes in Venice beach will be a real litmus test for this liberalism that fails to respect that a host of other laws prevent employers from hiring illegal aliens to begin with. They advocate letting them in, but then fail to grasp how do they earn an income and pay taxes no less join Obamacare.

Many see this crisis as a true test of Democratic Liberalism. How will California deal with the issue when it is right in your face? It is easy to say let them in and you are being harsh. But when they start camping out next to your home and your children need to walk pass them, the issue becomes personal.

President Trump Remarks: Liawatha’s “I’m gonna git me a beer” Skit, Would Have Been Better From Wounded Knee…


President Trump drawing attention to the severely inauthentic Senator Elizabeth Warren through a little presidential humor:

(Tweet Link)

 

Embedded video

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

If Elizabeth Warren, often referred to by me as Pocahontas, did this commercial from Bighorn or Wounded Knee instead of her kitchen, with her husband dressed in full Indian garb, it would have been a smash!

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