Freedom of Religion under Attack by Australian Gov’t


OK, believe it or not, the Australian government wants sweeping changes in the Catholic Church and other organizations, including making celibacy voluntary for clergy, but the real kicker is that they want priests to report people who confess sins in church. Politicians no longer have respect for religion or the beliefs of people. To them, there is no God, only their power. This is getting really insane.

Taxing the Per Mile you Drive – Hunt for Taxes


There are a number of states now looking into imposing a tax on every mile you drive your car. The leader of the pack has been the West Coast.  I previously reported that California wanted to tax space shots per mile they flew into the sky. Then California wants to tax taxi drivers per mile they drive.  Oregon was looking into taxing per mile you drive. Illinois was looking at taxing motorists 1.5 cents per mile they drive.

Well, California is losing money as oil prices are down and people are shifting to electric cars more so there than perhaps anywhere else in the country. So what is the solution to needing more money? Of course, you guessed it, California now says what the heck, let’s just tax everybody per mile they drive and that will make up for the loss at the gas pump.

Bitcoin = Money, Commodity, or Shares?


QUESTION: I read your article on Bitcoin. I found it fascinating that defining what it is changes everything. You did not actually say what you thought it was, money, stock, or a commodity. Curious as to what you would classify Bitcoin as.

All the best

ANSWER: The definitions I presented are from the government perspective of taxation. They will naturally define it to be whatever produces the greatest tax for themselves.

Economically speaking, anything that can be exchanged to facilitate a barter transaction becomes a MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE. That really can be anything. It has been food, sheepskins, seashells, cattle, bronze, silver, gold, or a derivative of something as paper money began.

Pictured here is a bronze ingot of the Minoan society. It is bronze cast in the form of a sheepskin. This reflects the transition from sheepskin to the Bronze Age. Above is a Roman ingot with the picture of a bull, which also reflects that this was a transition for cattle that was money previously.

Cryptocurrency is the next transition from tangible items being used for money moving toward electronic. It is a Medium of Exchange and that makes it really a currency and not the object itself of desire. Money will always exist in different forms because humans are not all equal in motivation, only human rights and that depends if the government has something to gain then you have no rights at all at that moment.

The Practicality of Cryptocurrencies – Not Really Ready for Prime Time


Trying to actually use Bitcoin in the economy is anything but something that will replace any government currency. The transaction fees are outrageous typically 3 to 4 times that of a cash withdraw from an ATM. In this video, a journalist tries to actually use Bitcoin. The pizza ends up costing him $76.16 and the fee to use Bitcoin is $9.47.

To use Bitcoin, there are middlemen who are the equivalent of a foreign exchange broker. It can take hours to get a simple order in to buy a pizza.

From a practical viewpoint, cryptocurrencies are not quite ready for prime time. They are all hype and offering a futuristic vision of beating the governments, but the computing time it takes to actually use cryptocurrency and the complexities, demonstrate that what we are dealing with is by no means some instant success story that has beaten paper currency or a credit card, which is really also electronic money.

U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley Outlines Evidence of Growing Threats From Iran…


In a stunning display of international transparency, U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley presents actual, physical, incontrovertible and, yes, uncomfortable, evidence of Iranian weapons that have been used by proxy fighters against allied nations.  The presentation takes place at joint base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, DC and consists of formerly classified intelligence gathering presented openly to the international community.

Ambassador Nikki Haley presents an assembly of actual Iranian missiles and weapons that have been fired against mid-east allies within the peace coalition.  After a brief speech outlining the material on display, Mrs. Haley takes questions from international media.

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[Transcript] It’s really important that you be here today, because we have a story to tell, and the story is a very important one. And it’s not just important for the United States, it’s important for the entire international community. As President Trump announced on October 13, the United States is taking a new approach to Iran by focusing on all of the regime’s destabilizing behavior. That means we are focused not just on the nuclear program.

We’re also taking a hard look at Iran’s ballistic missile program, its arms exports, and its support for terrorists, proxy fighters, and dictators.

Our new strategy was prompted by the undeniable fact that the Iranian regime’s behavior is growing worse. The nuclear deal has done nothing to moderate the regime’s conduct in other areas.

Aid from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to dangerous militias and terror groups is increasing. Its ballistic missiles and advanced weapons are turning up in warzones across the region. It’s hard to find a conflict or a terrorist group in the Middle East that does not have Iran’s fingerprints all over it.

Four days ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif wrote an op-ed assuring the world that Iran has been misunderstood. He wrote, “Iran’s military capabilities comply with international law and are entirely defensive.”

Instead of stoking violence, Zarif promised that Iran and its partners, “labor to put out fires [while] the arsonists in our region grow more unhinged.”

But the United Nations just released a new report that tells the opposite story. It tells the story of Iran as the arsonist. The report shows the Tehran regime not putting out fires, but fanning the flames of conflict in the region.

This was the Secretary-General’s fourth report detailing Iranian compliance – or noncompliance – with UN Resolution 2231. That resolution places specific prohibitions on Iranian conduct.

In its strongest language yet, the Secretary-General’s report describes violation after violation of weapons transfers and ballistic missile activity.

The United States welcomes this report, as should every nation concerned about Iranian expansion. We are grateful for the depth of the UN’s inspection and analysis. Most telling, the report makes a convincing case that Iran is illegally providing the Houthi militants in Yemen with dangerous weapons. The report provides devastating evidence of missiles, conventional arms, and explosive boats of Iranian origin used by the rebels in Yemen – all of which violate UN resolutions.

The United States and our partners went to great lengths to support the UN investigations into Iranian violations by declassifying evidence so that the world could better be informed of the extent of Iran’s malign activities.

As you know, we do not often declassify this type of military equipment recovered from these attacks. But today we are taking an extraordinary step of presenting it here in an open setting. We did this for a single, urgent purpose: because the Iranian regime cannot be allowed to engage in its lawless behavior any longer. International peace and security depends on us working together against the Iranian regime’s hostile actions.

The fight against Iranian aggression is the world’s fight. The United States is acting today in the spirit of transparency and international cooperation that is necessary to defeat this threat.

In this warehouse is concrete evidence of illegal Iranian weapons proliferation, gathered from direct military attacks on our partners in the region.

Behind me is an example of one of these attacks. These are the recovered pieces of a missile fired by Houthi militants from Yemen into Saudi Arabia. The missile’s intended target was the civilian airport in Riyadh, through which tens of thousands of passengers travel each day.

I repeat: This missile was used to attack an international civilian airport in a G-20 country.

Just imagine if this missile had been launched at Dulles Airport or JFK, or the airports in Paris, London, or Berlin. That’s what we’re talking about here. That’s what Iran is actively supporting.

What is most revealing about this missile is what’s not here. This is a short-range ballistic missile. It is missing the large stabilizer fins that are typically present on these kinds of missiles.

The Iranian Qiam missile is the only known short range ballistic missile in the world that lacks such stabilizer fins and includes nine valves that you will see running along the length of the missile. Those valves are essentially Iranian missile fingerprints.

On your walk through, you will also see missile debris stamped with the logo of Shahid Bagheri Industries, an Iranian manufacturer.

Those are just two of the many pieces of evidence that tell us of this missile’s Iranian origins.

It was made in Iran, then sent to Houthi militants in Yemen. From there it was fired at a civilian airport, with the potential to kill hundreds of innocent civilians in Saudi Arabia.

You will see more than that. In this warehouse there is also material from an anti-tank guided missile. Such missiles have a range of over two miles and can destroy tanks, and even buildings. You will see material from an unmanned aerial vehicle, also known as a kamikaze drone, that can take out radar sites. You will see material from a SHARK-33 explosive boat. These are boats with a warhead inside them that explodes on impact. They can blow six feet wide holes in the hulls of ships.

All of these weapons include parts made in Iran, some by Iran’s government-run defense industry. All are proof that Iran is defying the international community. And not just one time. This evidence demonstrates a pattern of behavior in which Iran sows conflict and extremism in direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

In just a minute, Laura Seal from our Defense Department will walk you through the items gathered here and explain their connection to the Tehran regime. We welcome a thorough examination of this material, not just by the members of the press here today, but by the international community.

Several countries will be sending delegations here to view this material in the next few days. Some have already been here. We are inviting the entire UN Security Council to see it for themselves. And we are inviting all members of Congress to view it.

This evidence is part of what has led the U.S. intelligence community to conclude, unequivocally, that these weapons were supplied by the Iranian regime.

The evidence is undeniable. The weapons might as well have had “Made in Iran” stickers all over it.

The United States stands ready to share what we know to further the cause of peace. We ask our friends and our allies to do the same. Iran is determined to undermine the international consensus against its conduct.

We must speak with one voice in exposing the regime for what it is: a threat to the peace and security of the entire world. We call on all nations to join us in a united front resisting this global threat.  (read more)

Interstate Banking & Changes to the Federal Reserve


QUESTION: 

Hi Marty,

You say, “The one-size-fits-all policy of central banks with regard to interest rates pits East v West in both Canada and the United States. Farmers, oil producers, and miners are forced to pay higher interest rates when their economies are declining because of speculative booms in Toronto or New York.”

I can see how regional Central Banks could have supplied different stimulus in different regions back in the time of the Fed’s formation when the mediums of communication were not what they are today, but how would that work now. With the ability, today to borrow money electronically from where ever it is cheapest, wouldn’t people in the high-interest regions simply borrow in the regions where the money was cheapest defeating that strategy?

Regards,

F

ANSWER: About 70% of small business are routinely turned down for business loans. The small farmers, miners, and oil producers cannot simply borrow from the cheapest source. I myself always found banks calling me asking if wanted to borrow money when things were great and I never needed it. If you are watching your business model decline, nobody will lend to a ship taking on even a little water. There is a huge difference between a consumer loan on credit cards and a small business.

Consumers already pay interest rates set by a bank which are usually covering various regions. It is true, after the collapse of 9,000 banks with the Great Depression, thereafter banks were prohibited from Interstate Banking. Indeed, Interstate Banking allowing banks across state lines became widespread in the mid-1980s, when state legislatures passed legislation that allowed bank holding companies to acquire out-of-state banks on a reciprocal basis with other states. I had been on the board of a regional bank in the early 1980s. After Interstate Banking was allowed, a New York bank came down and put in a bid for Capital State Bank. It was sold and everyone cashed-in on their shares.

The main point is that there remain regional lending problems. The banks will lend to a market that is booming and will shun away from the regions in trouble. Today, a major bank in New York goes down and it impacts the entire country thanks to Interstate Banking.

So yes, you are correct – things are different today. The regional approach served the local economies. Even the S&L industry was regional and intended to serve the local economies. Today, the restructuring of the central banks eliminating and responsibility for regional disparities combined with Interstate Banking produces a completely different set of problems that will fuel the various separatist’s movements. In Europe, we see a huge disparity between the local economies of Southern Europe v Northern Europe and there too they are trying to impose the one-size-fits-all approach to central banking. Wherever we see economic disparities, we will see separatist movements

The Dow & Trump Tax Reform


The Trump Tax Reform reducing the corporate tax to 21% and taking effect January 1st, 2018 rather than being delayed until 2019, will be one of the biggest positive catalysts for US equities in decades. This is very interesting because it is now fundamentally validating what our computer has been projecting for highs going up to the 40,000 level on the Dow back in 2009.

Many of the domestic and institutional investors overseas are NOT in this market. They will now be forced to reposition their portfolios once the bill is passed. How to Trade a Vertical Market is absolutely critical at this point in time. This is by no means going to be easy.

We are already above the top of the Upward Channel and this will be 21,017.30. Our projections for 2017 stood at 25,648.40 and this rises to 28,045.71 for 2018. This is the next area of resistance. Once we push through that projection, the market will come back to test it. That will be the start of the slingshot upward.

The same model produced the projection at 195.97 for 1928. The year 1928 opened above the projection at 203.40, fell back to retest it dripping to 194.50, and then entered the slingshot running to 301.60 intraday and closed that year at 300.00. Keep in mind our project model gives us 25,648.40 so we are not yet through that level.

This is why I have always warned AGAINST fundamental analysis. The fundamentals ALWAYS unfold to validate what our computer forecasts to start with. Our forecast that BREXIT would win and Trump back in 2016 was possible ONLY because the computer was picking up the change in public sentiment which is driven by economics. The Trump Tax Reform is a reflection of the discontent underlying the economy. The Democrats will naturally vote in block against it because they simply like the higher taxes even if it produces fewer jobs and lower economic growth. They cannot change their color now.

NOBODY could have forecast this back in 2009. Barron’s though we were crazy back in 2011 forecasting the Dow was off to new record highs. Socrates can beat anyone, even me. So why will mainstream media not report our model’s success? Because it is not in the self-interest of themselves or government. Why interview people with opinions to fill their pages if all you have to do is try to figure out why the forecasts Socrates puts out will unfold on schedule? Don’t worry about it. Our big clients prefer that our forecasts are not on their front pages.

After the New Year, we will produce a special report on the US share market for 2018 with the turning point and price objectives for the year.

Australia gives Parking Ticket to Man in His Own Driveway


Once upon a time, police aspired to protect society. Today, police, in general, are more interested in harassing the public to raise money for the government. In Australia, a man was given a parking ticket in his own driveway. The incident has gone viral in Australia and the government claims his car partially blocked the sidewalk.

I had friends who were police decades ago. Something has changed. They were never vindictive and nasty. Today, you literally take you like in your hands just being pulled over by a cop. Every encounter I have had that never ended with any ticket I have found the police starts with an attitude and the assumption everyone is up to something

The Separatist Movements in Canada & One-Size-Fits-All of Marx


Many people are aware of the various attempts of Quebec to separate from Canada. What they are unaware of is the supporters of the Western Independence Party of Alberta. There has been an undertone of the separatist movement in Alberta which actually stems from the Great Depression usurpation of the Federal Reserve by Franklin D. Roosevelt.

 

Why is the Western Canada separatist movement caused by Roosevelt’s usurpation of the Federal Reserve? Everyone looks to the United States and assumes whatever structure they adopt must be correct. The Euro was crafted because the USA has a single currency. They did not consolidate all the debts and that has created a nightmare. Canada, likewise, assumed the one-size-fits-all policy of Roosevelt and has been paying the price regionally ever since.

So what is the link with the structural usurpation of the Federal Reserve? When the Fed was created, it was the solution to the Panic of 1907, which was set in motion by the disruption of the internal domestic capital flows caused by the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. The insurance companies were in New York. Consequently, the cash flowed to the West and a shortage developed in the East.

The original structural design of the Fed was to establish 12 branches to manage the capital flows domestically. Interest rates would decline where there was an excess of cash and rise where there was a shortage. This, they believed, would cause capital to move between the branches to balance the national capital flows and economy. Each branch acted independently to manage the capital flows. When crops would come to market, then Kansas would have an excess of cash and rates would decline as we can see from the table showing the rates set by each branch in August 1927.

When Roosevelt comes to power in 1933, he wanted to control the economy for his socialist agenda. He usurped the power of interest rates from the various branches of the Fed and consolidated then into Washington DC making it one-size-fits-all. He, therefore, abandoned the structural design of the Fed and ever since the capital flow focus has been internationally, not domestically.

As a result, the regional problems have resurfaced. The central bank raises interest rates to stop real estate or stock market bubbles in New York and that harms the commodity regions in middle America. When commodities have boomed, the financial regions are normally suppressed. The Fed raises rates to stop stock speculation in New York and prevents farmers from running their operations when commodity prices are at their lows. Canada has done the same thing raising interest rates to stop real estate booms in Toronto while the commodity-based economy in Alberta is sent into bankruptcy.

I have called this the Texas-New York arbitrage. Here is a chart showing when oil peaks in price, it is typically counter-trend to the financial markets. Oil peaked in 2008 when the stock market was crashing. Once again, oil prices are down and Alberta suffers while the financial markets are booming in Toronto.

What is resurfacing is the regional differences within Canada as well as the United States. The one-size-fits-all policy of central banks with regard to interest rates pits East v West in both Canada and the United States. Farmers, oil producers, and miners are forced to pay higher interest rates when their economies are declining because of speculative booms in Toronto or New York.

This is the root cause of the regional separatist movements we are witnessing in Canada. The structure of the central banks was originally intended to manage the domestic capital flows. That has been part of the whole socialit agenda to abandon that policy and create the one-size-fits-all policy of Marxism.

Trading v Socrates


QUESTION: Marty; All of these Robo trading plans are simply a flat model. Socrates is forecasting short and long term rather than just trading a flat model. Am I correct?

PT, Canada

ANSWER: Correct. The approach to modeling is traditionally flat. It will take one market and attempt to create a buy/sell model on that market exclusively to the exclusion of all other markets. This is the reason these flat models will blow up even such things as the Black & Scholls, which won the Noble Prize before it created the Long-Term Capital Management collapse in 1998. That is the subject of the book titled – When Genius Failed.

The flat model approach is a disaster. They will work for a while and the blow up BECAUSE they are incapable of grasping the wildcard contagion. That is what happened in the LTCM collapse. The illiquidity in the collapse of the Russian market led to the selling of all other markets to raise cash. There are plenty of people who are soliciting money claiming they have “mastered” our model. That is absolute nonsense because they are interjecting their own OPINION and that will be a guaranteed loss down the road. This requires NO OPINION and the fact that someone will try to supplement by writing reports on markets shows they are basing their trading on opinion.

Here is the Euro traded by Socrates just using Reversals without cycles from a pure hedging perspective. There is a huge difference between being more active using short and long-term Reversals. Hedging models are either long or short and DO NOT add to positions as they unfold as is the case with Speculation.

 

The Speculation models also differ depending upon using just the long-term Reversals and if you use both the Short and Long-Term.

In both instances, this is using the Weekly Level of activity. You can step back and use just the Monthly level. The trading performance will vary differently depending on what your objectives are.

Obviously, anyone soliciting model trying to claim they are using Socrates are just not telling the truth. They will inject their own OPINION and that will override everything.

We are reviewing REPUTABLE firms that will use our model WITHOUT interjecting OPINION. During the 1987 Crash when the Brady Commission investigated what they thought was caused by computer trading, the discovered that the computers were right, the traders did not follow them.