Migrants Rioting in Malta


The migrants trying to get into Europe for free welfare rioted on Monday in Malta setting cars on fire and attacking staff. Malta had agreed to house them temporarily in a detention center waiting for other EU countries to accept them for settlement. This illustrates the fears of many in Europe about all of these migrants who have been allowed to enter without skills in language or fields that would be suitable for employment. Despite the violence, European politicians simply cannot admit that this has been a huge mistake.

*UPDATE* Canadian Election Night – Open Discussion Thread – Trudeau Wins Reelection…


UPDATE – RESULTS: Everyone Declared Victory.

Justin Trudeau celebrated an overwhelming victory following the results of the Canadian election – SEE RESULTS HERE –  The Liberal party lost 21 seats but remained the majority parliamentary winner albeit without a majority. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a “solid mandate from the election results.”  The Conservative party gained 27 seats and the most national votes, but remain the losing party.  The New Democrat Party lost 15 seats and declared the 2019 election a major success for their agenda.

It’s all weird.

During their post election speeches the Liberals (Trudeau), Conservatives (Sheer), New Democrat Party (Singh) and the Green Party (May), all declared victory.  It seemed like a hot mess of political messaging; but hey, that’s Canada.

Congratulations, I guess.

Liberals (RED), Conservatives (BLUE), New Democrats (Orange)

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to @JustinTrudeau on a wonderful and hard fought victory. Canada is well served. I look forward to working with you toward the betterment of both of our countries!

14.5K people are talking about this

Tonight the results of the Canadian election will start to be announced.  Canada is a parliamentary system and therefore voters do not vote for a national candidate, instead they vote for a local representative, MP’s, who belong to a national party.

There are 338 separate district races called ‘federal ridings’ from coast to coast.  In order for a party to win outright they need to win 170 district seats.

If a party doesn’t win 170 seats they need to form a government in combination with one, or more, of the other parties.  Whichever party wins the majority of the seats elects a leader to become Prime Minister.

Currently there are 177 Liberal seats; 95 Conservative seats; 39 New Democratic Party seats; 10 Bloc Quebecois seats; 2 Green seats; 1 People’s Party of Canada seats; and 8 Independent seats.  Early results should start coming in around 7:00pm Eastern.

CTV News Election Results Here – O’Canada Election Results Here

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Howie Baetjer explains what Communism is!


How is Communism described in theory, and how does it play out in the real world? Join us for our question and answer series with Prof. Howard Baetjer

The Death of Europe, with Douglas Murray


185K subscribers

Recorded on June 3, 2019 In this episode of Uncommon Knowledge, Peter Robinson is joined by author and columnist Douglas Murray to discuss his new book The Madness of Crowds: Race, Gender and Identity. Murray examines the most divisive issues today, including sexuality, gender, and technology, and how new culture wars are playing out everywhere in the name of social justice, identity politics, and intersectionality. Is European culture and society in a death spiral caused by immigration and assimilation? Robinson and Murray also discuss the roles that Brexit and the rise of populism in European politics play in writing immigration laws across the European Union.

Europe – How Bad Can This Get?


QUESTION: Hi Marty,

I’m based here in South of England, within the commuter belt into London. The ECM forecasts an economic downturn 18.01.2020, and Europe looks to be at the epicentre. My own research tells me the job cuts in the auto sector in Germany are quite severe.

How does all this play out after January? We have already witnessed companies collapsing, Thomas Cook, and many teetering on the very of edge of collapse. How bad is this going to be, and how does this compare to 2008?

Of course, the next 3 months of 2019 are going to be very volatile, what I’m trying to understand is how does all this look like to the average city worker within finance, law or professional services.

Within my own peer group most are clueless on what is going on and perhaps they should be thinking of income protection rather than going out and buying £60k Range Rovers. The apathy never ceases to amaze me.

I welcome your insight. Thanks for your great work which keeps us mere mortals informed.

Cheers IB

ANSWER: The answer is very bad. The structure of the Eurozone is an absolute disaster. It is promoted as a single country, but it lacks everything that stands behind a currency. Just look at the tariffs starting between the USA and the EU. It is IMPOSSIBLE to negotiate a trade deal with Europe because each country can veto any deal, proving this is not a single country, and thus there is no substance behind the single currency. This is why I say Brexit is the only way for Britain to survive. It cannot negotiate any trade deals with the USA, China, Canada, or whoever because any other state can veto it. They surrendered their sovereignty and it is undermining the European economy.

If the US had to seek the approval of all 50 states before it could do any national policy, nothing would ever get done. The French can block trade deals and the US will look at the EU as a single entity because that is the structure on the surface. So the US could impose tariffs on German cars because of something France refuses to yield on. It is a giant political mess.

The only way for Europe to survive is for the Eurozone to actually collapse. Then each country could negotiate for itself without a veto from another over something irrelevant to their economy.

If the Eurozone were to survive, each country must surrender all autonomy to Brussels on everything retaining only local culture and laws. Brussels is trying hard to make it the United States of Europe, but the first thing that must go is the refusal to consolidate the debts and end the bail-in policy. Anything shy of that is playing with fire.

While the ECM is turning in January 2020, that appears to be impacting more externally to Europe. Europe may see economic turmoil into 2021.

Sweden – How Bad can it Get?


QUESTION: SOS from Sweden:

Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Please take a look at Sweden. I know you can not look at every single country but Sweden would be interesting since it is the country were socialism has gone farthest in the world and totally crazy. One of the most well-organized countries in the world with the oldest Central bank and well run global companies have turned into total chaos. Socialism has turned a peaceful country into a crime capital. Rapes are now among the highest per capita in the world. Robbery likewise. We are flooded with immigrants from MENA countries that have no skills. Many can’t even read. They live on welfare and get better paid than people working. Taxes are going through the roof. Police force under extreme pressure. Jails are overfull. Same with healthcare and education.

The municipals are bankrupt. They borrow via Kommunivest to meet the gigantic burden of immigrants. The loans go to welfare paychecks, not to investments. Kommuninvest issues international bonds and then lend to all municipals. International investors do not know how bad the financial situation is for Kommuninvest. It’s the Black Swedish Swan that is going to blow up soon. Mr. Hans Jensevik is the one person in Sweden that has worked with the municipals economy all his life. He is a very respected old-timer. He has even come out with a video warning international investors from buying Kommuninvest bonds!

 

Government debt is not catastrophic but the municipals are. The Government made the municipals take on the debt when the state unloaded immigrants in all our 290 municipals… Many municipals are now warning they are bankrupt and need emergency finance. So the Government is going to be forced to bail out the municipals very soon.
The state own media dominates TV and radio. Imagine only CNN running TV and radio channels in the US! Competitors only allowed entertainment. State own media pushing agenda on mass-migration, open borders, climate change, pro-euro and hate for Trump. All newspapers are subsisted by Government running the same agenda. Swedish Riksbank is trapped and forced to follow ECB down the drain with subzero rates and more QE. The SEK is tanking. This is not going to end well.

Could you please shed some light and interpret Socrates outlook for Sweden, SEK and OMX30

Thanks for your great work.

SG

ANSWER: The impact of migrants in Sweden has been the worst in Europe. Then you have this climate change nonsense that led to “flygskam” or “flight shame” in Sweden. This provides a threat of a sharp decline in flights as people are being looked down upon for flying, thanks to Greta Thunberg, because it hurts the environment.

There is no question that we also see the dollar rising here as well, The economy of Sweden is turning down very hard on the ECM turning point. A closing for 2019 above the 94600 levels will confirm the greenback’s advance. The share market has been trying to reflect the currency decline and has risen only due to currency inflation.

Using Other People’s Money


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You had said you retired from market-making in the precious metals when in the early ’80s people were claiming to sell Krugerrands for spot with delayed delivery. I think they went bust and went to jail if I recall you said back in 1985. Is this the same thing happening in online brokerage with this no commission scheme? How are they making money?

SY

ANSWER: No, it’s not the same. If I remember correctly, it was a firm delaying the delivery of the gold coins by 90 days. They were playing the bear market, assuming gold prices would always be lower based on the fact that the Fed raised interest rates to 14% in 1981. Back then, I was making more money on the float in my account than I was on the gold. The cost on the Krugerrands was spot +4%, so they were making +15% using the money in overnight markets, plus delaying delivery, and they would not buy the coins until the price declined from where they sold them to you. That was pure speculation and I decided I would retire rather than play that game. If I had to speculate to pay salaries it made no sense. They went bust in 1985 and ended up in jail, if I recall, when gold rallied out of the 1985 low and they could not cover all the promises they had made on the coins.

Here we have a similar issue with making money indirectly. Stockbrokers get kickbacks or rebates from the market-makers for steering the business and they make money on the spread between bid and ask. So the retail brokers are still making money that way. But then they also get to use your funds to earn interest. In place of commissions, they make money from charging traders who buy stocks on margin.

Therefore, you have:

  • Interest they earn on your money
  • Rebates from market-makers
  • Interest they charge on margin

This is more legitimate than the gold brokers who were speculating with other people’s money back in the ’80s

Should Americans Hoard Cash?


 

QUESTION: Martin, I appreciate all the information that you provide and just got done reading about money shortage and hoarding. Would it be good for US citizens to hoard also? Is there any difference in hoarding dollars or gold and silver coins? Thanks for your comments.
DM

ANSWER: In order for gold and silver to be a medium of exchange, it requires the general population to accept that. The older generations know what a silver quarter or a $20 gold coin might be. However, the younger generation does not. Paper dollars will still be best to hoard for every day use until about 2022. At that time, we will have to reassess the climate of the monetary system. There are those videos where people were offered a 10 oz bar of silver of a chocolate bar. They took the chocolate.

Gold and silver should be in coin form. Bars will not be easily used among the average person.

Precious Metals Desk at JP Morgan Criminally Charged


The precious metals Desk at JP Morgan Chase on September 16, 2019, was criminally charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with being a criminal enterprise for approximately eight years in its manipulation of the prices of gold, silver, and other precious metals. The head of that desk and two other precious metals traders were charged with racketeering under the RICO statute which was originally passed to target organized crime.

The Justice Department said that the traders and their co-conspirators “conducted the affairs of the desk through a pattern of racketeering activity, specifically, wire fraud affecting a financial institution and bank fraud.”

 

Why Did the Dollar Rally Only After the 1929 High?


QUESTION: Hello, I am having trouble understanding how capital flows into the US, which helped the Dow double from ’27-29 didn’t move the dollar. Instead, the dollar moved up abruptly when inflows collapsed. It doesn’t make sense to me. Can Marty cover this at the WEC or help me understand in an email or blog response.

Thanks,

Norm

ANSWER: This period was when there was a fixed exchange rate so you will not see the change in the dollar. The capital flows turned out as the crisis took place in Europe and they needed to repatriate capital to cover losses at home.

However, 1931 was the Sovereign Debt Default, which meant the fixed exchange rate system collapsed. This is when the dollar really rose for this was the true value of the dollar during the 1920s due to capital inflows, but it was fixed and sort of like what happened with the Swiss peg.

You see the same identical issue with the Swiss franc. The capital inflows were intense as people were buying the Swiss and selling the euro. The capital inflows reflected the move, but the peg was holding. It was that intense capital inflow that broke the peg. The same pattern took place during the 1920s. The capital inflows to the dollar were intense as capital fled Europe due to the war. However, you do not see it in the currency because of the fixed exchange rate. It was this intense inflow that caused the Sovereign Debt Crisis in 1931 and suddenly you see what the dollar would have been in a free market.

I have explained that there is also currency inflation. The tangible assets will rise in a country when the currency declines IF there remains underlying confidence in the nation at large. If not, the tangible assets may rise in hopes of a revolution, which may be bloodless as in Germany 1923, but there must still be confidence in the nation surviving. When there is no confidence as in Communist takeovers in Russia, China, Venezuela, tangible assets will NOT rise.

Applying this understand to Japan for the Bubble 1989 top, we see the combination of the rise in the Nikkei in proportion to the decline in the currency which was orchestrated by the Plaza Accord in September 1985. Confidence in Japan was not in question politically. However, the 1987 Crash was a currency move where the fear became whether the dollar would fall another 40%. This caused the Japanese to sell US assets and repatriate their capital home, which then was causing the Nikkei to rise WITH the currency.

If you look closely, you will see that the Nikkei rallied more in US$ than in yen going into the 1989 Bubble top. This is the same pattern currently of how the Dow has rallied from 2009 into 2019 leading the S&P 500 and NASDAQ because it was rising more in euros than in dollars. The 1989 Bubble top in Japan was so severe like 1929 BECAUSE it had attracted capital from around the world which intensified the rally. But when the foreign investors sold, Japan crashed and burned because nobody understood the consequences of capital flows.

Even when the CIA came to us and wanted me to build this model for them and I declined, they understood we invented capital flow analysis and it was the key to the rise and fall of nations.