Tag Archives: Keynesian Economics
Interview: The Fall of Western Civilization
Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jun 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Watch the video above or click here to view the latest interview.
Martin Armstrong returns to the Outer Limits of Inner Truth Podcast to discuss: what Socrates is saying about the 2024 election, the likelihood that CBDCs will not succeed based on what happened in Africa, the fall of Western Civilization, where the elites want to take humanity, and how to preserve your liberty in these trying times.
May Jobs Report Show 339,000 Jobs Gained, Worked Hours Declines, Unemployment Rate Increases to 3.7%
June 2, 2023 | Sundance
There is a strong divergence within the May jobs report as released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) [DATA HERE]. Payrolls increased 339,000 in May from April and previous months were revised up by 93,000. That is good news. However, the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, showed employment down 310,000 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
One of the aspects driving higher payroll starts are the number of people taking on additional part-time jobs. This aspect is noted in a decline for the number of hours in the average workweek. As more PT jobs are added, the number of hours in a workweek declines. As noted in the BLS data, “the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in May.”
There were 161.0 million people working in April. There are 160.7 million people working in May.
There were 5.7 million people unemployed in April. There are 6.1 million unemployed people in May.
The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.7%.
There are 310,000 fewer people working in May than were working in April. However, payrolls increased by 339,000 over the same timeframe. See graph above for where those jobs were gained.
(NBC) – […] Job gains were broad-based last month with health care contributing 52,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 48,000. Food services and drinking places led the increase in the latter industry, which had been adding an average of 77,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
Overall, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs for the month, much better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in May against the estimate for 3.5%. The jobless rate was the highest since October 2022, though still near the lowest since 1969.
Olu Sonola, head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings, said the jobs report is a mixed bag.
“The strength of the payroll survey is clearly a big surprise, largely on the back of robust job growth in the healthcare sector and the business and professional services sector,” said Sonola. “However, the 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate is the highest monthly increase since April 2020.” (more)
WAGES – As noted within the BLS report, “In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $33.44. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3 percent.” Wage growth still lags inflation; the middle class is getting poorer. However, with the fed focused on wage growth as the leading indicator of their false pretenses to combat inflation, wage growth is too high (they want around 3.0%).
The Biden economic and monetary policies are delivering the results they want. Higher energy prices, higher costs of living, lower real wages and increased middle class pressure. The serf model.
The BLS was forced to admit yesterday their Real Hourly Compensation growth was previously flawed. [CHART DATA SOURCE]
That chart of revisions to real wages tells us a lot about the economic pain being felt by the working class in the U.S. If it feels like you are working harder and going backwards in your ability to afford basic essentials, that’s because you are.
The prices for essential goods and services have risen at a much greater rate than the wages needed to afford them. This is the result of Joe Biden’s energy policy, economic policy, and now magnifying monetary policy.
Our goods and housing costs are higher. Our wages are not growing much. The cost to borrow money to afford the gap is increasing. This is unsustainable.
In my opinion, the economy overall – as a measure of units produced and sold – has been in a contracting position since the fourth quarter of 2021. The appearance of economic growth, the value of goods and services, is an illusion that has been created by higher prices, ie. inflation.
Senate Passes Debt Ceiling on Schedule
Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Jun 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, the Senate passed the Debt Ceiling. It is amazing how Socrates shows there was no debt crisis. As you wrote “When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling.” I do not know how it does this, but what you have created is truly a gift to humankind.
REPLY: I never expected that linking everything together would predict wars, civil unrest, or financial crises. There is a lot we can learn from Socrates.
Debt Ceiling & War Crisis
Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
When we look at our Computer’s timing arrays for the 30-year bond, it did show a target last week with a Directional Change. So far the market has held that low and has been consolidating. When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling. However, the next Fed Meeting is July 25-26 and when we look at our Array, we see that is when there is a Panic Cycle.
There is NOBODY in Washington who is ever interested in actually paying off the debt. Even AOC has come out and said there should be no debt ceiling – just print until the cows come home, but that may be a problem when Bill Gates and the WEF want to kill all the cows.
In that regard, we are only making things chaotic. The government should just print the money and not borrow in the first place for they are competing with the private sector which is the ONLY real creator of worthwhile jobs.
Meanwhile, the Neocons are hoping to start a war with massive air drills in Europe going to even Church, which they do not believe in God, and lighting candles just in case he does exist to please make Russia attack. If not, hell, they will just say Russia attacked as they lied and claimed that Vietnam attacked us and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. War is on the horizon and that is the MOST inflationary influence of all.
Ukraine Preparing to Engulf the Entire World in Death & Carnage
Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Some people have been sending hate mail claiming I am a Putin supporter. My advice to you is to grab a gun and go volunteer to fight for Zelensky. ALL my sources have been screaming from the beginning that this Ukrainian war has been instigated by the US which has been taken over by a silent coup of the Neocons. Then some just hate Trump and are so blinded by it that they are walking into their doom.
Ukraine is out to create World War III. Russia has NOT been using military aircraft in Ukraine. They have only used missiles and drones. Ukraine has NO NEED for F16 jets other than to launch a war on Crimea to try to destroy the Russian fleet and they will use them to attack Moscow directly. They want the F16s from Briden but the long-range missiles from Germany. They are giving the Neocons cover so they can pretend that they did not supply those weapons to Moscow and when they attack a NATO country, then World War III will begin.
Get your head out of the sand. Wake up! Pull that COVID mask off of your eyes and get your head out of the sand.
You are taking your family down a very dark path.
Russia will have NO CHOICE but to protect its own people and that will be through Nuclear Confrontation
UKRAINE is the ENEMY of the Entire World – They Only Seek Death & Destruction
Had the Minsk Agreement Been Honored – there would have been NO war!
South Africa Offers Putin Diplomatic Immunity Ahead of BRICS Summit
Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, South Africa) alliance is stronger than ever. The 15th annual meeting will be hosted in Cape Town, South Africa, and government leaders are urging all to attend. However, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has an outstanding warrant for the arrest of Vladimir Putin and South Africa is a member state.
President Cyril Ramaphosa understands the importance of the BRICS alliance and considered abandoning the ICC entirely before backtracking on his stance. Instead of leaving the ICC, South Africa now declares that it will grant diplomatic immunity to Putin to permit him to attend. “It is hereby published for general information that the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, in terms of section 6(2) of the Diplomatic Immunities and Privileges Act 2001, has recognised (the meetings),” the department said. The terms in the United Nations Convention should prevent the ICC from arresting Putin, who is considered a war criminal for the invasion of Ukraine.
Specifically, the ICC charged Putin “for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute).” Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, is also wanted by the ICC for the same charges. The Kremlin has denied that the deportations were forced and said that they were attempting to save Russian children living in Ukraine. Ukraine only entered the ICC in March of 2022, but numerous countries, including China and the United States, do not recognize “the court of last resort.” Lvova-Belova told news outlets that she was proud of her work in removing children from an active war zone. “It’s great that the international community has appreciated the work to help the children of our country, that we do not leave them in the war zones, that we take them out, that we create good conditions for them, that we surround them with loving, caring people,” she stated.
So, will Putin take the risk? On the one hand, his presence would signal that he is unafraid of international law. On the other hand, the Neocons would delight in an opportunity to arrest the Russian president to begin WW3. A country would need to be extremely careful to arrest the head of a country with nuclear capabilities in the middle of a war.
Biden on Gay Marriage (2006)
Armstrong Economics Blog/WOKE Re-Posted May 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Politicians echo the popular opinion of the time to gain votes. They act in their own self-interest and do not care about the people. Joe Biden now prides himself of being the wokest president in American history, but those views are not his own. Biden in 2006 is a completely different person from Biden in 2023, highlighting his steep mental decline in recent years that prevents him from speaking clearly. “I can’t believe the American people can’t see through this,” Biden said in 2006.
Biden repeatedly states in this video that he firmly believes “marriage is between a man and a woman.” People can love who they want and society has progressed since this video. However, the current definition of progress has taken the gay agenda so far that it threatens basic rights for those in the gay community. We went from gay marriage to discussing childhood castration for kids who “feel” they are a different gender. There was gay and straight, man or women, and now we have 107 different gender identities. The website linked italicizes currently as there will be more than 107 in the years to come as people completely lose touch with reality. In comparison, there were only 72 genders to choose from last year.
There are endless issues facing our nation and the only reason they harp on the woke agenda and promote the CEI score is to create a cultural divide in America that has now become a cultural war. “We already have a law, the Defense of Marriage Act,” a clear-headed Biden said. “We’ve all voted — not, where I’ve voted, and others have said, look, marriage is between a man and a woman and states must respect that. Nobody’s violated that law, there’s been no challenge to that law. Why do we need a constitutional amendment? Marriage is between a man and a woman.” Biden admitted that no one was challenging anyone’s way of life and it was a misuse of Congress’ time to harp over such issues. Yet now something about LGBTQ comes up during every White House press briefing (Joe Biden never attends or addresses the people), and the nation is experiencing a mass mental health and identity crisis.
The Real Hidden Agenda – It’s Time to take the Red Pill
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
I’m gay and I agree with you on this transgender drivel, especially letting male-born athletes compete in women’s sports. It is becoming scary for those of us who are just gay. We are being thrown in the same category as this transgender agenda. I too have been to Thailand. The Ladyboys in Thailand are numerous and are accepted in society. They are smart enough to not make a political issue of it as is taking place here in America.
As for your view of Trump as the only hope to save our politics, I profoundly disagree. I think he is arrogant and ignorant. He doesn’t care if what he says if it is true or not.
REPLY: With respect to Trump, you have to separate the individual from the politics. I understand people hate Trump. The media have spread this BECAUSE he is a threat to the Washington political establishment. Nonetheless, not even Trump can stop the decline and fall of Western Civilization.
People get offended by his crude statements at times. But at least you know what he really thinks. Is it better for a career politician to say everything you want to hear and then look at you as a stupid fool and do the opposite?
I have worked in Washington. There is ABSOLUTELY nobody who is a career politician in either party who will really stand up for the people. They are under pressure all the time to conform to the unelected party bosses.
I have met many heads of state in my 40 years. I have said the truth. Trump was the ONLY such person who ever impressed me as actually being human. His statement that he wanted to bring our boys home from Afghanistan because he was tired of writing letters to their parents to thank them for their son’s sacrifice of dying for his country. He actually said what are we doing there? They are fighting over borders for a 1,000 years. What difference will we make?
No head of state EVER spoke about the people. It was always about their policy. I have come to see that we are just the pawns – expendable pawns at that. There are always more of us to come. They look down upon the people as stupid scum. This whole digital currency thing is to track everything we do.
So you may find Trump’s statement and his arrogance at times as distasteful. We will never find someone perfect. But all of this is irrelevant. For there is NOBODY coming on some white horse to save the day. Trump’s quality was that he was NOT a career politician and what he was doing was for his personal legacy from ending wars to building a wall to protect our borders.
So all I can say is to those who hate Trump so much, you better look closely at the others for they have nothing but contempt for you.
Back in the ’70s, I hired a death mute – Danny. He taught me sign language and we could communicate and laugh together. I had a major surgeon as a client and he said that he probably could restore his hearing. I offered to pay for everything for him and he declined. He was afraid to hear sounds. He grew up that way and was in his late 20s and did not want to change. He taught me that what I thought would be a generous offer was really just me thinking that normal was the ability to hear. We cannot judge others by ourselves.
One of our staff who is black, was rather upset about the whole Black Lives Matter movement. She explained that it was being usurped by non-blacks. There was clearly a strange agenda behind the curtain. Soros and his defund the police agenda was to create civil unrest and cause the country to get prepared for this one-world government.
Ruth Bader Ginsberg was the first woman to make it to the Supreme Court. She was an advocate for women’s rights. But she came out and explained that the entire Abortion Movement was a fraud. They called it women’s rights and have indoctrinated many women who passionately take that position. They have been cleverly manipulated by the Gates crowd and the Rockefeller Foundation for their real goal was to reduce the population. Gate’s father started the whole Planned Parenthood and placed them in minority areas to reduce their population on a racist basis. Like his father, Gates has targeted Africa to reduce population.
Now, the total number of people who identify as Transgender is 1.6 million out of a population of 331.9 million (2021). That is 0.0048%. Now, how has this become such a major issue? There is absolutely NO WAY this Transgender group had the money or the clout to turn this into such a huge issue. Diving deep behind the curtain and you will find, just like abortion, it is being funded for the purpose of reducing the population – and has NOTHING to do with Pride or gay rights. They are being exploited just as women were told it was their right to have an abortion – kill that baby and save the planet.
This Transgender nonsense is in fact destroying the right of the Gay Community because they are being thrown in with this Transgender nonsense advocating changing children’s sex without parental knowledge all before puberty. Let’s get real here. This agenda is to promote the reduction in the population and has NOTHING to do with the Gay Community or their rights to inclusion and equality.
This is always the same strategy – manipulating society to achieve its undeclared goal be it war, politics, or women/transgender rights. It is like LIFE Insurance which is really DEATH insurance. They sell fire, accident, theft, and hurricane insurance. But they could not sell DEATH insurance so they called it LIFE insurance and people brag how much they have.
Remember the lockdowns? The whole COVID nonsense was a scam to end commuting and terminate offices bringing in virtual work from home all to reduce gas consumption. That was also a manipulation of society for climate change – not for health. There are people still to this day wearing masks driving alone in a car. They have been mentally damaged by these tactics.
NOTHING is ever what it seems. We are the fools and they are always using sophisticated tactics to manipulate society to achieve objectives that they will never reveal.
It’s just time to take the Red Pill and wake up if you EVER hope to survive as a viable human being or take the Blue Pill and live in your fantasy that government actually cares about you.
Turkey & the Election
Armstrong Economics Blog/Turkey Re-Posted May 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I’m not sure if you remember me. I was with the Islamic bank that our board ordered we were to open a branch in Turkey and we turned to you to create a hedge since the Turkish Lira was not a tradable market. You saved the bank a fortune and I think that was the first synthetic hedge anyone ever created back in the ’80s thanks to your computer correlations.
The press was claiming that Erdogan would lose and that would be a victory for democracy that would send a message to strongmen rulers in other parts of the world. Well, they got that one wrong and we have the same type of democracy that the rest of the West has – career politicians entrenched for life. Now the press is all flustered saying this victory for Mr Erdogan is sending a message to people like Modi in India as he faces his third general election within the next year that he too can win.
I remember the forecast you told the bank back then that come 2026, Turkey might break with NATO and align with Russia in hopes of restoring its former glory of the Ottoman Empire. Well, I thought that was rather way out there back then. Today, I see how that is now perhaps a 50/50 bet.
Has anything ever changed in your computer on that very long-term forecast since the other one you had said the British pound would fall from $2.40 to par and that seemed farfetched as well but the computer was correct. Would you care to comment on Turkey?
ANSWER: Oh yes, I remember you. The ’80s were the wild times. If I am correct, we bumped into each other in the early ’90s in an elevator in London. No, nothing has changed. This was the turning point and it still appears to be building up but a break with NATO is still possible post-2024 increasing in intensity for 2026. Your memory is very good still. Erdogan is not a fool. He sees the Ukraine mess and how the West is deliberately creating WWIII. He sees the opportunity ahead even if he does not articulate it publicly. We have reached the 340-year mark from the 1683 attempt of the Ottoman Empire to conquer Europe. We are approaching the 4th wave from 1683 and that is 344 years. So we are on target and nothing has changed.