Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Nov 3, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
A Biden victory or even a continued round of uncertainty into early December may set off a serious liquidation before year-end. The risk of a significant tax increase next year under the Democrats would warn that you better take whatever capital gains you have this year. Some state like California has extended their ballot counting to 17 days past election day. We are looking at simply uncertainly in many respects. In a tight election and so many aspects up in the air, we can easily see this election end up in the US Supreme Court.
While some try to pretend that the market will rally under Biden, that is very unlikely with significant tax increases both on investors and corporations. A Biden victory may follow the traditional 2-year decline into 2022 which follows an 11 years rally. A decline in the market in the midst of uncertainty cannot be ruled out simply because it would be prudent to sell in 2020 before even a possible Democratic victory which unfolds with a 2021 economic seachange.