Why I Look at the Dow First


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Nov 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Why do you focus on the Dow over the S&P 500 and others?

ANSWER: New analysts claim that the S&P 500 provides a better picture of the markets compared to the Dow. Although the S&P 500 obviously has a larger catalog, the Dow is a direct reflection of international capital flows. Look toward the Dow to see where big money is moving.

The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index. The NASDAQ typically reflects retail, often tech-heavy, and usually does not peak at the same time. Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the big money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital based on currency. You will also notice the Dow tends to top out first because the big money tends to pull out first also due to currency.

Capital is flowing like never before, and the smart money is on the move. Socrates users have access to our capital flow heat map that shows where money is moving in real time. The USD remains the last safe haven, and money is pouring into the US. Look to the Dow for the best international perspective.

Not Just Recession—Massive Economic Shift!


Lee Camp Published originally on Rumble on November 26, 2022 

This is not just a Recession — it is a Massive Economic Shift!

New Interview: Energy, Russia/Ukraine, Cryptos, US Civil War, Real Estate Crash


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media

Posted Nov 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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“This Week in Money

Meloni Set to Abolish Italy’s Welfare State


Armstrong Economics Blog/Italy Re-Posted Nov 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Italy’s new PM Giorgia Meloni revealed her first economic initiatives with a budget of 21 billion euros. The Italian government will no longer provide free handouts to those who simply refuse to work. This should not be controversial.

For starters, anyone eligible for welfare must actually reside in Italy. Those capable of working will have eight months to find employment before their free paycheck runs out. Alternatively, if someone refuses a job, they will be excluded from receiving welfare. The 5-Star’s citizens’ wage will be abolished by next year as the system has been abused by many who simply do not want to work. They are reviewing the pension system as well, but it’s too late to save the pension funds.

Italy’s first female PM is also encouraging couples to start families amid a birth rate crisis. Women may take a sixth month of maternity leave and still receive 80% of their salary. Meloni cut taxes on goods for newborns and feminine hygiene. Couples will receive a 50% increase in the “baby bonus,” and families with over three children will receive more incentives. Italy needs future taxpayers.

Everyone cheered when America appointed its first female vice president, but Kamala Harris has done nothing for women who still pay the pink tax and do not have access to maternity leave. It is astonishing how controversial this move has become with the papers calling Meloni a Fascist dictator for preventing working taxpayers from paying for those unemployed by choice.

Australians Safe from Fifth Jab


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania Re-Posted Nov 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

After taking four vaccines and failing to curb the transmission of the coronavirus, Australian health officials will not recommend a third booster shot. Health Minister Mark Butler said the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (ATAGI) admitted that a fifth dosage of the mRNA vaccine would have “minimal” effect toward reduction efforts.

Australia once had some of the strictest COVID restrictions in the world, and this is huge news. ATAGI member Allen Cheng, Ph.D., mentioned that the risk of myocarditis in younger people is troubling. “Vaccinations are beneficial and protective even for younger people but the more doses you get the less benefit you derive from them and then we start to worry about causing side effects,” Cheng said.

Butler said that new booster recommendations will be made in early 2023. Australians are not off the hook yet. Everyone over the age of 30 has been eligible for a second booster since July. The government still recommends staying “up to date” on vaccinations despite that standard constantly changing.

Ukraine Supporters & Denial of History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Nov 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

UN Agreement Ukraine 1994

I apologize, the proposal began in 1991 for Russia to join NATO. But the final agreement with respect to Ukraine’s nukes was not in Belgrade but in Budapest. History has been rewritten to support the war against Russia for climate change. I have never seen any account of history that reports NATO invited Russia to join in 1991. Some people are so pro-Ukrainian that it is insane. They are really cheering for World War III and no doubt believed in COVID, Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, and Hillary’s RussiaGate. They refuse to open their eyes to see that they have been played for fools as always to justify war.

So cheer all you want. This war will NOT be confined to just Ukraine you can watch it on TV as if it is some video game. Ukraine was the 3rd largest nuclear power. That was a fact. The US paid them to surrender their nukes to Russia and they in turn provided nuclear power rods for electricity. James Baker warned about loose nukes and Ukraine was one of the three republics that ended up with nukes. The difference was, Ukraine wanted to use them on Moscow. All my sources back then were deeply concerned that Ukraine just could not ever be trusted. It was Ukraine that kept the cold war going. Zelensky has supported the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis who have even bragged that they feed the bones of Russian-speaking children to their pet wolves. I have fact-checked that and it is a true statement made to the press.

My dealing with Ukrainian governments has always been: Just show me the money. Ukraine is a corrupt black hole. History will show who is on the right and wrong side if any side survives.

Good luck with your hatred. Remember, there is a funny thing about what we call karma. What you wish on someone else may be what becomes your own undoing. So don’t worry. Your hatred of Russia will end that nation, but it will be a Phryic War and nobody will survive. So cheer the loss of your future. You will get what you deserve in spades.

The Polish Association of Memory of Victims of Crimes of Ukrainian Nationalists documented 135 methods of torture and murder practiced by Ukrainian Nazis. Poland officially called the Ukrainian actions genocide. The Ukrainians have been protected by the CIA for decades ONLY because they hated Russians. They continue to protect the Ukrainian Nazis only because they are waging war against Russia.

The Ukrainians were unprecedented in their war crimes during WWII and the sheer outright cruelty one would expect only exists in some B-Rated horror movies. This included:

  • Running children through with stakes
  • Cutting a person’s throat and pulling their tongue out through the hole
  • Sawing a person’s torso in half with a carpenter’s saw
  • Cutting open the belly of a woman in an advanced stage of pregnancy, removing the fetus, and replacing it with a live cat, before sewing up her abdomen.
  • Cutting open a pregnant women’s abdomen and pouring in broken glass
  • Nailing a small child to a door.

Ignore all the history you want to keep fanning the flames of war. When you lose everything, remember – you asked for this result.

The Crypto Contagion – More Lows into 2023


Armstrong Blog/Cryptocurrency

Posted Nov 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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This FTX scandal is the death nil for cryptos. At first, I assumed that perhaps they lost a ton of money because of the implosion of the bond market. But this was not the case. In fact, this is perhaps the worst I have ever seen and it comes from trading losses from kids that had no experience whatsoever with regard to trading. They obviously did not even understand fiduciary responsibility.  MF Global was taking client money to trade in London and got the market wrong. Bernie Madoff remains a mystery wrapped up in a political enigma.  From 1991 to 2008, Bernie and Ruth Madoff contributed only about $240,000 to federal candidates, parties, and committees. Madoff was not trying to buy influence as was taking place at FTX. Maxwell mysteriously died in 1991 when his trading scandal surfaced, but he was also secretly backing the communist coup against Gorbachev in 1991.

Then there were the accounting scandals of ENRON and Worldcom whereby to hide their losses and failures, they engaged in accounting fraud to cover up the true story. But there were not using other people’s money to trade, they were hiding their bad performance from shareholders hoping to make a comeback.

That is the common denominator. I have been called into many crises. The one thing that always runs through the problem is the refusal to admit a mistake. That seems to lead to losing trades continuing to be held in hope of the infamous COMEBACK. The motive seems to be the same and many of the problems I have been called into to help solve have been in corporations where some strategy went wrong. In these cases of ENRON, Worldcom that were allowed to fester. The trading scandals are perpetuated in the hope that the next trade will win it all back.

Crypto contagion instigated by FTX, has only gotten more interesting since Sam Bankman-Fried sent a series of cryptic tweets spelling out the words “What HAPPENED” after his wealth wipeout. After the collapse of FTX, we are looking at a collapse in confidence in all digital assets.

With this degree of collapse in even Bitcoin, there will be more bankruptcies lining up. Inexperience dominates this young field and facing a stiff recession ahead going into 2023, this meltdown is not over yet. The low in Bitcoin from 2021 high is not likely before 2023. Thus – as they say – it ain’t over until the fat lady sings (a reference to Opera).