The Panic in Interest Rates is Just Getting Started


QUESTION: Marty; You warned that there would begin a cash shortage and real rates would rise in the private sector starting in September after Labor Day. Ok, it’s about 15 days past that marker and Repo rates have gone completely nuts hitting 10% forcing the Fed to intervene. They were calling it Armstrong’s revenge here in the dealing room. It certainly appears the Fed has lost control of short-term rates as you warned. Is this the start of the chaos you have warned about?

GD

ANSWER: It’s not my revenge, it’s fiscal mismanagement. Look, this is the chaos we have coming and sorry, it is the beginning, not the end. It’s not even a fluke or a blip. So get used to it. Indeed, the Fed has lost control of short-term rates. Trump can jawbone all he wants for zero to negative rates. Sorry! The free markets are showing something else lies in wait.

The Repo Rate reached a high of 10% by about 9 am just before the stock market opened. The fed funds rate was testing the Fed’s upper limit. The Fed was forced to intervene I believe for the first time since the 2008 crisis.

On Tuesday, the Fed offered $75 billion through its facility and received $53 billion of demand from borrowers who swap AAA Treasury holdings for cash at minimal rates. On Wednesday, the Fed again offered the same $75 billion facility and received this time $80 billion in bids.

Overnight financing (REPO Rate) is a basic function which holds the economy together. Those who trade on leverage rely on the REPO market (Broker-dealers, hedge funds, and institutional). It is rarely written about for it is not generally seen by the public. The events of the past few days is a clear warning sign of what I have been yelling about which is on the horizon. The central banks are TRAPPED and in Europe, they have destroyed their bond market with more than $15 trillion and perhaps up to $17 trillion in negative-yielding bonds ($1 trillion is corporate).

Before the 2007-2009 crisis, the Repo Rate was actually the only financial instrument which paid a rate of return that could become NEGATIVE under normal market conditions. NEGATIVE Repo Rates can happen when there is a shortage of cash or particular collateral security, like negative-yielding bonds, are put up to borrow against. Therefore, trying to borrow against a negative-yielding bond can present a crisis. The standard Repo contracts, such as the Global Master Repurchase Agreement (GMRA), have been drafted under the implicit assumption that general collateral (GC) Repo Rates would only ever be positive.

What has transpired is the buyers of these negative bonds have been simply traders. They have not bought this stuff to actually hold to maturity. They have been happy to trade them assuming rates would continue lower so it would be a bond rally. We are looking at SERIOUS credit risk once again but instead of the time bombs being mortgage-backed securities, this time it will be negative-yielding bonds issued by governments. The bond markets have been converted into a child’s game of musical chairs. When the music stops, someone will be left holding negative-yielding bonds that will only be salable at even deeper discounts of perhaps as great as 50% in a few years.

About 30% of the bonds issued by governments and companies worldwide are trading at negative yields which is now about $17tn of outstanding debt. This unprecedented reversal of normal practice has raised profound questions about the outlook for bonds. This is seriously impacting core holding for institutional investors.

The interest rate risk that negative-yielding bonds carry is beyond unbelievable. It is totally artificial supported only by punters. The financial system simply doesn’t work with negative rates and this is also contributing to shortages of cash for Repo markets. A slight rise in interest rates will create a massive debt crisis and if you undermine the bond market, that is what creates great depressions. Negative yields have been confined to places outside the USA and the intervention of the Fed implies they are not prepared to allow negative rates to undermine the US economy as they have done in Europe.

Unlike the 2008 crisis where the time bombs were private debt, Tuesday’s abrupt rise in short-term rates wasn’t obvious that the financial system was in trouble because sovereign debt is assumed to be AAA and risk-free. Not sure whoever started that huge lie.

Nevertheless, we have a convergence of forces which are creating the perfect financial storm on the horizon. Immediately, corporate tax payments are due so corps have less cash to sell overnight. Then there are big Treasury auctions as deficits continue to rise for governments always borrow, yet never pay off the debt as if this can continue without end.

I have been warning that we are headed into a major financial crisis that will be a liquidity event which involves government – not simply the private sector as was the case in 2008. So buckle-up. I have been warning this is something NOBODY has ever witnessed before and if Socrates was actually alive, he would be screaming bloody-murder by now. The Institutional Bond Report will be going out to all our Institutional Clients. Those who have been thinking about joining our Institutional client base can purchase a copy $3,500

More Trudeau Pictures Surface – Prime Minister Says Can’t Recall Number of Times He Wore Blackface…


As more pictures of Justin from Canada begin to surface; and with at least three instances currently known by media; the Canadian prime minister said today he cannot remember how many times he wore blackface.

TheLastRefuge@TheLastRefuge2

Prim Minister @JustinTrudeau is the personification of the David Mamet Principle which says (in essence): In order for cultural progressives to force compliance with their ideological demands, they must also pretend not to know things…

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How Free Market Prosperity Enables Bernie, AOC, Gulags and the Slaughter of Millions


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Aleksandr Solzhentisyn, who saw the starvation and brutality of The Gulag Archipelago, said “prosperity breeds idiots.” That helps to explain the existence of AOC, Bernie Sanders and other so-called social-democrats and Progressives. It doesn’t explain why Ocasio-Cortez and countless others like her have learned nothing from the slaughter of millions that came as a direct result of their beloved ideology. Bill Whittle, Stephen Green and Scott Ott bring you five episodes of Right Angle each week thanks to the Members who fund these productions. Join us today at https://BillWhittle.com/register/

 

Hell No, Beto: Here’s How President O’Rourke Could Take Our Guns


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Government Will Never Accept Responsibility for their Actions


COMMENT:  You were right Martin! Demonetization was one of the worst decisions by the Modi government, the country is now suffering from that…. economy has gone down, but the new govt will not admit it. They believe the Millenials are to blame!

JPM (India)

REPLY: After nearly 40 years of dealing with governments throughout the world, I have yet to hear any government EVER admit blame for causing an event.

I was called in for research on the 1987 Crash as we had clients on the Commission. Not only did we forecast the crash to the day, but we came out on the day of the low and forecast new highs by 1989. The Energy models showed the move was over.

Despite all of that, I stressed that the entire crisis was set in motion by the formation of the G5 and their pronouncement that they “wanted” to see the dollar fall by 40% for trade purposes in 1985. The Brady Commission report went into detail about how the foreign exchange markets impacted the event. However, they would not blame the G5.

When Rubin started the same jawboning about the dollar, I wrote to him warning he would create another crash. They backed off.

Flight from Public to Private


QUESTION: Hi. Martin. I have read your blog for many years and I’m blown away about how much I have learned Question can you help explain how the European stock markets Like the day have risen to over 12000. With European interest rates falling.

SH

ANSWER: Capital is beginning to move already. Europe is closing in and hunting taxes. The chaos of Brexit and punishing Britain rather than addressing the economic problems has really doomed Europe.

As you can see, the peak in the PE ratio took place at the LOW in 2009, not the high. When you enter these periods of uncertainty, interest rates, dividends, and expectations of profits no longer mean anything. The primary objective is to park money in a safe place where you get it back. Banks are questionable with bail-in policies and negative interest rates. Now even gold is being targeted. Where else to go but equities