Posted originally on Apr 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Netherlands has changed its press directive to exclude non-accredited journalists from court hearings. Beginning on June 1, 2025, only members of ONE association, the Dutch Association of Journalists, will be able to create audiovisual reports of legal cases. This ensures that the government can control the media’s narrative as it spirals into the grips of war.
How does a journalist join the Dutch Association of Journalists? They must earn a specific amount of money from a predetermined list of media companies. Your livelihood must depend on reporting according to the government’s narrative if you want access to hearings. This is an all-out attack on free speech.
Potkaars, who personally has interviewed me numerous times, was denied membership in 2021 as they were not beholden to a media mogul or corporation that has the government’s approval. They have filed numerous lawsuits against the government to no avail. If judges deviate from the press directive, the restriction had to be recorded in a register under the old press directive. Potkaars protested twice against the failure to register a decision and was proven right in both cases ( Court of Appeal in The Hague, Court of Appeal in Amsterdam ). Journalists may not appeal against a judge’s decision to deny them access. The updated terms will permit judges to restrict press access arbitrarily without reason.
The judiciary hired an association to carry out the accreditation process. They want journalists who abide by the Digital Services Act implemented by the European Union, which requires third-party media companies to censor “misinformation” on behalf of the government.
My source has told me that the Netherlands is training its military to recover body bags as part of an annual drill. This was not required training in previous annual exercises—the Dutch are preparing for war, and the government wants to silence free speech to prevent the public from knowing the truth.
Posted originally on Apr 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Thank you for your private blog. I can see that the turning points laid out in Socrates are indeed pressure points that then cause people to react as Trump just did. You were right. The 7th held. These people get hysterical and blab out forecasts on emotions, as you said.
Thank you for the training.
WY
COMMENT #2: My Dear Mr. Armstrong much can be said and argue about these Tariffs you can write endless post about it but the bottom line is Trump and his advisors choose the WORST time in history ?to implement them -is like all hell broke loose !
Regular working class will pay the price already here in Ontario company are starting to fired people blaming guess who ? Unfortunately that how the game is play somebody has to be blame
You must be very busy ,but don’t neglect your well being please !
GR
REPLY: You are correct. We are all human and will respond to similar events in the same way and in the same amount of time, regardless of the country. The computer gave us the timing months in advance. The “fundamental” does not matter. My concern is that we are heading into a recession that started May 7th, 2024. I agree that the Democrats and media will blame Trump and his tariffs when this is part of the business cycle that will move into 2028. We are facing a sovereign debt crisis that will wipe out all debt by 2034.
However, we are facing significant economic stress that pushes the Europeans to seek an external distraction, and that is Russia, to avoid dealing with the crumbling EU structure. They stripped Hungary of a right to vote and changed the rules that unanimous votes were necessary. Once you establish a centralized government, they will always see more and more power. This is also why no government has ever survived long-term.
Thrasymachus warned that JUSTICE is the same in every form of government – it is only the will of those in power. He said that more than 2000 years ago, and nothing has changed ever since. It is never a question of IF something will occur; it is merely a question of TIME – WHEN it will unfold. It is not a question of whether a society will rise against its oppressor; it is only a question of how much time it will require to move the majority of people to action. This is the same formula that governs when a market will crash. You may be able to raise your arm, but you cannot keep it up. You will run out of energy. So will markets or politics.
As I explained on the private blog, you can raise your arm but not keep it there. You will run out of energy, and it will become so heavy that you have to let it down. Markets are no different. As the white rabbit in Alice in Wonderland kept saying, “I’m late. I’m late.”
It is the last frontier – It’s Just Time.
As Margaret Thatcher said at our World Economic Conference
Posted originally on Apr 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I wanted to throw my two cents into this tariff mess. I have lost all respect for Bloomberg. They are the fake news. The political bias dominates all of their articles. I saw what they did to you and refused to ever publish the truth. They kept telling the world you were in contempt for $1 billion that was missing when it was $1.3 million, and never fessed up that the bank stole the money and had to plead guilty and repay your clients. The mere fact that you had no restitution said it all, yet they kept you in prison on civil contempt to turn over assets for something you never owed. They have covered stories of Trump with the same dishonesty. Pronouncing the NASDAQ was in a bear market, with the S&P 500 soon to follow, was the final straw.
Yesterday, they wrote that Donald Trump appeared to blink in the face of global, domestic, and perhaps most importantly, Wall Street fury at his single-handed destabilization of stock markets, bonds, and even oil prices. It was the press that caused the crash, not Trump. Everyone knows that Trump plays the art of the deal. The whole tactic was to create free trade. I agree, if Kamala had won, they would be blaming evil capitalists and Republicans, trying to make her look bad.
They have joined the leftist agenda of fake news. I cancelled my subscription.
BQ
REPLY: It is worse than that. Our reports used to be on Bloomberg. They deleted all of our previous reports. Mark Pittman had even written an article on what we were doing in Japan, buying distressed portfolios, and each transaction was approved by the Japanese Minister of Finance (MOF). When the charges were filed, I met Mark at the Hyatt by Grand Central Station. He knew the charges were false and said to me, “We are not going to let them do this to you.” Bloomberg removed Mark from ever covering anything about my story and deleted all the evidence that showed the charges were false.
Bloomberg crossed to the Dark Side.
Then again, it’s Hard to find Any Mainstream News That is not Fake Today
The Real Question is WHY have they become Fake News?
Posted originally on Apr 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Bloomberg has actually come out as proclaimed: “With the Nasdaq 100 already in a bear market, soon it may be the S&P 500’s turn.” All we hear are hysterical forecasts, all emotionally charged because the number one thing they taught in economics class was the Democratic propaganda from the 1932 election – Tariffs & Protectionism caused the Great Depression, and Free Trade is prosperity. Bill Clinton tried that with China, and the Democrats cheered him. It expanded GDP, but it wiped out jobs and even whole towns in China.
Here is a meme on TikTok about making America Great Again. Is this our Competitive Advantage?
I have traded billions and advised on trillions. I managed the only onshore hedge fund for Deutsche Bank – here is the track record. My worst drawdown in a month was 0.41% – unmatched by anyone. I have been in the trenches and traded head-to-head with Soros, Bacon, Goldman Sachs, Phibro et al. I know why capital moves and have testified before the House Ways and Means Committee even on that subject. I do not speak from “theory” or “I think” bullshit from pretend analysts who are spouting out emotional forecasts which confirms that they are NOT an analyst. I have been named hedge fund manager of the year, FOREX Person of the Year, the discoverer of the Secret Cycle, and economist of the decade, among many other things – including the SOB by bankers, or alternatively that MFer.
I am appalled by these people, who the media are parading on TV all hysterical, claiming tariffs will end the bull market if not civilization, and the media loves it because they get to hate Trump for something new, other than Putin’s Puppet or SIGNALgate that they can’t seem to get people interested in. Telling them they will lose everything in a 401K, there goes Social Security, and your house will fall to zero because you did not vote for Hillary or Kamala. While opinions make markets, as I have said countless times, the MAJORITY must always be wrong, for they provide the energy for the reversal of trend.
What Bloomberg reported was entirely LEFTIST propaganda. At the time, the NASDAQ had not even tested the basic uptrend line. Technically, you must break that line, stage a false move that retests that from beneath, and then it turns south again. To imply that the NASDAQ will continue to decline, it must close below 15200 on a monthly basis, raising the possibility of continuing down into May/June.
Democratic Senator Ron Wyden said he will force a vote on repealing tariffs in a test of GOP political support for Trump’s trade war. There are the renegade Republicans who joined the Democrats, demonstrating that they believe the 1932 Democrats’ propaganda to win the 1932 election was utterly false. The rollout of Trump’s tariff strategy has sparked wide-ranging reactions from investors, manufacturers, small businesses, and consumers.
Congress enacted the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (RTAA) of 1934 which was a significant U.S. trade policy enacted during the Great Depression under President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The RTAA empowered the president to negotiate bilateral tariff-reduction agreements without requiring Congressional approval for each deal. This marked a shift from Congress’s traditional control over tariffs (e.g., the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930). The Tariff reductions could be up to 50% of the existing rates.
Roosevelt, then, like Trump, engaged in Reciprocity Agreements that were based on mutual concessions, where the U.S. and partner countries agreed to lower tariffs on each other’s goods, boosting trade in theory, but it had little impact because consumers were not buying, staring at the uncertainty of the future. Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) Clause also took place with tariff reductions negotiated with one country being extended to all other trading partners with MFN status, preventing discrimination and broadening the impact of bilateral deals.
The Democrats had made such a big deal out of the tariffs, remaining dead silent on the Sovereign Debt Defaults, and that is what led to the propaganda we were taught in school that tariffs are bad and free trade is good. Aimed to reverse the trade-collapsing effects that they blamed on the Smoot-Hawley Act, which had exacerbated the Depression by sparking global tariff wars, they ignored the sovereign debt defaults that drove the dollar to record highs that made foreign imports even cheaper.
John Kenneth Galbraith, in his seminal work The Great Crash 1929, did not attribute the stock market collapse of 1929 to tariffs. That was not practical since they came in June 1930 after the CRASH. Instead, Galbraith emphasized factors such as speculative excess, margin buying, fraudulent corporate structures, and weak banking practices as the primary causes of the crash. His analysis was focused on the immediate financial mechanisms and psychological factors driving the bubble and its burst. While he acknowledged broader economic vulnerabilities, he did not highlight tariffs as a direct cause of the crash itself.
However, tariffs, particularly the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, are often cited as exacerbating the Great Depression that followed the crash, thanks to the Democrats who use it simply because the sponsors were both Republican. Since Smoot-Hawley was enacted after the crash, Galbraith did not blame it for the market collapse but might have recognized its role in worsening global trade and economic relations during the 1930s.
The assertion that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff caused the Great Depression was used during the 1932 election by the Democrats. However, it is not widely attributed to a single individual among reputable economists or historians today. Most scholars view the tariff as a contributing factor that exacerbated the global economic downturn rather than its primary cause, since it was not enacted until the following year. However, several figures have prominently criticized its role:
Economist Milton Friedman: While Friedman emphasized monetary policy failures by the Federal Reserve as the primary cause of the Depression, he and co-author Anna Schwartz noted in A Monetary History of the United States (1963) that Smoot-Hawley worsened international trade tensions.
Political Figures: Opponents of Herbert Hoover, such as Franklin D. Roosevelt, criticized the tariff during the 1932 election, though they focused more on its role in deepening the crisis rather than claiming that they originated it.
Cordell Hull: As Secretary of State under FDR, Hull vehemently opposed protectionism and worked to reverse the Smoot-Hawley Act through reciprocal trade agreements, blaming it for damaging global commerce. As Secretary of State, he championed the RTAA as part of his vision for liberalized trade and international cooperation. However, the RTAA required periodic Congressional renewal (extended 11 times by 1945).
Economic Historians: Scholars like Barry Eichengreen and Charles Kindleberger discuss Smoot-Hawley in the context of 1930s protectionism and its role in stifling international cooperation, but they do not single-handedly credit it with causing the Depression.
The claim that the Smoot-Hawley Act “caused” the Great Depression is oversimplified and more commonly found in political rhetoric or popular discourse of the Democrats, who used it as a campaign argument to blame Republicans when it was a response to the high tariffs first imposed by Europe. Academic consensus recognizes it as one of many factors (alongside stock market collapse, banking crises, and monetary policy) that deepened and prolonged the crisis. No major economist or historian is definitively cited as claiming it was the sole cause.
When the economy turned down in 1937, there was widespread panic. People feared that this would be 1929 all over again. They called for raising margins and even curtailing short-selling, as always.
The tariff reforms did not prevent the Crash of 1937. Tariffs were NOT the cause of the collapse of 9,000 banks. We are being subjected to another media attempted coup to undermine Trump and hopefully embarrass the Republicans to vote Democrat against him. They will do whatever they can to destroy Trump.
Posted originally on Apr 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
There has been ongoing speculation about America’s holdings of foreign gold reserves. Elon Musk’s request to audit Fort Knox pushed the issue into the headlines once more. Now, the new incoming German government is discussing pulling their gold reserves from the New York Fed due to a lack of transparency and the public is asking—where is the gold?
I personally toured the New York Fed many years ago, and while there is gold there, I cannot verify the quantity or quality; no one has ever accomplished such a feat. The last full audit of US gold reserves occurred in 1953 under President Eisenhower. Auditors from the US Treasury and Mint verified domestic and limited foreign-held gold at the New York Fed and Fort Knox. Third-party auditors were not permitted, but there were US Congressional observers. Treasury Secretary George M. Humphrey and Mint Director William H. Brett were in charge of overseeing this audit.
Now, the government declared the audit to be a “full” inspection. However, only 3 of the 22 compartments at Fort Knox were examined, accounting for only 13.6% of gold holdings. Around 88,000 bars (34.4M oz) were meticulously counted, and auditors weighed around 9,000 bars (130 tons). Only 26 gold bars, selected at random, were drilled to confirm purity. Auditors confirmed that US gold certificates matched physical holdings at the New York Fed, but due to limited sampling and a lack of transparency, suspicions rose. “We have no reason to believe other melts would differ [from assay results],” the joint commission stated.
The gold examined was mainly domestic. Germany’s holdings, for example, were not part of the audit. Public confidence in the US government was on the decline at this period amid Cold War secrecy. Around the same time of the audit, the CIA admitted it to Operation Ajax—a covert operation to overthrow Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and install Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This was the first time that the US government openly admitted to orchestrating a coup and installing a leader in a foreign nation. How could the public and/or foreign nations trust the US under these conditions?
(Sources: Treasury 1953 Report, Sound Money Defense League, FRASER).
The GAO/Treasury conducted the next audit in 1974, reviewing 21% of gold holdings at Fort Knox. This occurred in the post-Bretton Woods period after Nixon abandoned the gold standard. Again, third-party auditors were not permitted to attend, and this time, auditors did not weigh bars. Some called the September 1974 examination a “show audit” and a publicity stunt as only 1 of the 13 vaults was examined. The “real” audit occurred the following month by a joint GAO-Treasury committee, but as mentioned, only 91,404 bars of 367,500 were examined. Random samples were tested for purity, but there was no assaying or weighing.
Continuing audits were ongoing, and the US government pledged to inspect 10% of its gold holdings annually from 1975 to 1983. As of 1985, the government stated it had audited 89% of its gold holdings, but only through seal verifications and limited sampling. Again, only the US government had access to these vaults.
The matter was ultimately laid to rest until 2012, when US politicians like Ron Paul and foreign governments demanded another audit. Germany was threatening to relocate their US holdings at the time due to a lack of transparency, and had been increasingly calling for an audit in the decades leading up to 2012. To appease doubters, the Treasury OIG conducted another limited audit.
The 2012-2013 NY Fed Audit scope included 34,201 US-owned gold bars (418 tons). Less than 1% (367 bars) were tested for purity. Auditors did not weigh the gold, nor did they conduct a full inventory. All compartments were to remain sealed unless they had reason to suspect tampering. Again, no independent assayers were admitted. Worse, foreign holdings were not inspected. Germany’s gold, for example, was not reviewed but they maintained trust in the US government despite some backlash.
Fast-forward to 2025: DOGE is uncovering government waste and mismanagement and has set its sights on Fort Knox. The US Treasury declared any audit a breach of national security. A true audit of Fort Knox, not including the NY Fed, would take 18-24 months and require 44,000 hours. Foreign governments now have a seemingly plausible reason to point their finger at the US and call “FOUL PLAY!”
Here’s the thing–no nation completely audits its gold holdings. The UAE, for example, implemented mandatory annual audits but only examined 10-20% of its holdings. There is limited transparency as their audits are classified, but they do permit third-party audits and follow London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) standards. Switzerland also follows LBMA standards and conducts regular audits, but auditors only check seals as there is no physical count. Switzerland is far more transparent about its auditing process, but again, they are only looking at a small percentage of overall holdings and not weighing or physically assessing the gold. Any nation could point the finger at another and question the validity of its stockpile.
As for US gold holdings, there have not been any official sales. If anything is missing, then that means it was stolen. However, the media is honing in on the US without understanding that no foreign nation conducts a full audit of their gold holdings. It all comes down to trust in the government, not only the current administration but every administration that has come to pass.
Posted originally on Apr 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Nancy Pelosi strongly supported tariffs before Donald Trump came into the picture. Trump is accomplishing what Pelosi dreamed of achieving nearly three decades ago. In 1996, on the House floor, Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) gave a speech highlighting America’s trade imbalance with China.
“How far does China have to go? How much more repression? How big a trade deficit and loss of jobs to the American worker? And how much more dangerous proliferation has to exist before members of this House of Representatives say ‘I will not endorse the status quo?’” Pelosi touted.
At the time, bipartisan support existed to grant China Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status, but a younger Pelosi firmly disagreed and believed China was taking advantage of the US. “China should not receive most favorite nation status,” she declared. Similar to Trump’s reciprocal tariff charts, Pelosi provided a chart on the status quo of America’s $34 billion trade deficit with China in 1995, which was expected to rise to $40 billion in 1996.
“Since the Tiananmen Square massacre, this figure has increased 1,000% from $3.5 billion to $34 billion now. In terms of tariffs, I think it’s interesting to note that the average US MFN tariff on Chinese goods coming into the United States is 2%, whereas the average Chinese MFN tariff on US goods going into China is 35%. Is that reciprocal? On exports, China only allows certain industries into China, and therefore, only 2% of US exports is allowed into China. On the other hand, the US allows China to flood our markets with a third of their exports.”
Fast-forward to 2025 when her political opponent implemented tariffs on China. Suddenly, Pelosi believes a tariff on China is “reckless” and told her party to repeat the message that Trump’s tariffs will damage the US economy and hurt the American people. “Donald Trump’s reckless tariffs will cause chaos in our economy, raise prices for consumers, and hurt hardworking American families. This is not a strategy — it’s the largest tax hike on the American people in history,” Pelosi wrote on X.
Yet, in 1996, Pelosi believed the opposite to be true and stated that China was stealing millions of US jobs. “In terms of jobs, this is the biggest and cruelest hoax of all, not only do we not have market access, not only do they have prohibitive tariffs, not only our exports not let in very specifically, but China benefits with at least, at least, 10 million jobs from U.S.-China trade. The president in his statement, requesting the special waiver said that China trade supports 170,000 jobs in the United States whereas our imports from China support a 10 million jobs at least … the fact is that U.S.-China trade is a job loser.”
Pelosi visited Tiananmen Square in 1991 to protest China’s suppression of protestors. She was extremely critical of China’s trade practices, ethics, and human rights abuses. At the time, her views expressed a desire to strongly distance the US from China in general.
In 2018, the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) found that the US-China trade deficit send 3.4 million jobs offshore. Manufacturing, a sector that has been on the decline in recent years, accounted for 74% of all job losses to China. As for Pelosi’s home state, 560,000 jobs were lost to China, the largest loss by state in the nation, followed by Texas, which lost 314,000 positions.
The deficit has widened and Chinese goods have continued to flood the US market. The only thing that has changed is the person paving the way for these tariffs. Pelosi’s flip is yet another example of a politician expressing views that express their self-interest rather than the interest of the American public.
Posted originally on Apr 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I just saw you here on RT (Russia Today) explaining the tariffs. What a marvelous job. Nobody knew that interest and dividends are part of what people call the trade deficit. You appear on TV in Russia explaining the world, but not in America. They are still prejudiced by what the bankers did to you. Thank you for your insight into Trump’s being a businessman, not a politician. The world needs to understand him better.
Yuri
REPLY: I have been criticized by some I know in Washington for appearing on Russian TV. My response is blunt – I don’t give a shit. As President Kennedy said, we all breathe the same air and are all human with our flaws and strengths. I do not subscribe to being prejudiced against a whole people for past events or one person. I have gone to dinner with outright Neocons who, personally, I believe are traitors to humanity. My father taught me long ago to NEVER judge others by your own standards. You must understand their thinking process to grasp why they acted in the past and why they may respond in the future. Everyone and every creature will act in their own self-interest.
I learn as much by doing an interview in Russia as they get from me. I like to hear the questions, for it shows me what is at the top of their thinking process. It is the Neocons who tell leaders never to talk to the enemy. Why? Because you may come to an agreement and settle on peace.
Posted originally on Apr 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
China is the world’s largest car producer and exporter. A little-known fact is that China first became the world’s largest car exporter back in 2023, with low-cost EV companies BYD and Chery in the spotlight. The nation’s auto sector has been steadily expanding since then, with Chinese brands reaching an all-time high of 69.4% of domestic passenger vehicle market share in Q1 2025.
The growing popularity of higher-tech, EV cars has aided China’s auto sector. BYD overtook Tesla to become the world’s top EV company. BYD actually surpassed Tesla in terms of revenue back in 2018, but the two companies had tight competition. As of 2024, BYD exported 4.27 million vehicles worldwide, compared to Tesla’s 1.79 million vehicle sales. In 2025, BYD delivered 416,388 BEVs, exceeding Tesla’s 336,681 vehicles for two consecutive quarters. BYD surpassed Tesla in annual revenue for the first time in 2024, generating $107 billion (29% YoY increase) after experiencing a 40% increase in battery electric and hybris vehicle sales. Tesla posed a slight 0.95% YoY growth in 2024, generating $97.7 billion in revenue, but auto sales accounted for only $72.5 billion of total revenue.
Overall, China exported 5.86 million vehicles in 2024, a 19.3% annual increase. Mexico, Russia, Brazil, and the UAE were the top buyers. China sold4.96 million passenger vehicles (19.7% YoY increase), 900,000 commercial vehicles (17.5% YoY increase), and 1.28 million new energy vehicles, as well as 987,000 battery-electric vehicles.
Japan is the world’s second-largest car exporter, exporting 4.22 million vehicles in 2024. This marked a -4.5% decline from 2023. Toyota remains Japan’s leading vehicle, accounting for $312.28 billion in revenue and 830,048 million vehicles.
Germany is holding onto third place in auto exports. In 2024, Germany exported 3.4 million passenger cars, marking a 2.5% annual increase. Around 25.9% of all vehicles exported from Germany last year were electric. Volkswagen Group remains Germany’s star, generating $354.86 billion in revenue for the year.
In February 2025, China’s autos accounted for 27.5% of total auto sales globally. Now, these cars are not only cheaper than what other nations like Germany or the US can produce but also more technically advanced. Governments have been placing levies in China’s auto sector for the past few years, as there is a belief China has an unfair advantage. Chinese companies are not separate from the government.
The CCP has been injecting tons of capital into private companies to expand rapidly and undercut competitors’ prices. These companies also have reduced risk as they have the government’s backing. Labor costs are far cheaper in China, and the nation does not need to export vehicle parts for production. Overall, China has been able to rapidly infiltrate the global auto markets and become the global leader.
Posted originally on Apr 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
President Javier Milei saved Argentina from the despair of socialism. Poverty reached a two-decade high between January and June of 2024 at 52.9% when Milei was working diligently to undo decades of poor fiscal policies. New data suggests the number of citizens under the poverty line has fallen to 38.1%
Before taking office, around 57% of adults in the Argentina were unemployed. Bloated government programs were costing the nation $6 million daily. Argentina was forced to stop printing money back in 2022 after inflation surpassed 60% in July of that year, and their currency became utterly worthless. here were mass strikes since their money could not fund basic goods. Even if they could find employment, what incentive would the people have when the currency is worthless?
Images of Milei with a chainsaw went viral as he swore to begin rapidly cutting government waste and eliminating the ever-growing public sector. He removed price controls and devalued the currency by 54%. Transport and fuel subsidies were eliminated. It was noted that these measures would at first hurt PPP before the economy could begin to heal. Imagine inflation cooling in February at 276% — the situation was dire. The International Monetary Fund awarded Argentina a $44 billion credit program. The nation is beginning to stabilize very slowly, and it took decades of deteriorating economic conditions for someone to come in and clean house.
The situation worsened before healing could begin. Milei called his measures a form of “shock therapy” for Argentina’s economy. Milei agreed to devalue the nation’s peso from around 350 to 800 pesos per USD. He has eliminated quotas on imports and exports and removed the licensing that was difficult to obtain. There is a temporary rise in taxes for non-agricultural trade that brings it on par with industry standards. Transportation and energy subsidies have been eliminated.
Annual inflation hit 289% in April 2024 as the economy was adjusting to new policies. In a dramatic turn of events, inflation cooled to 2.4% in March 2024. Argentina posted its first surplus in over a decade last April at $589 million. Argentina then hit its first budget surplus in December 2024—the first budget surplus in 123 years. The unemployment rate as of Q4 2024 fell to 6.4%, and labor force participation rose to 48.8%.
Milei exclaimed: “The deficit was the root of all our evils — without it, there’s no debt, no emission, no inflation. Today, we have a sustained fiscal surplus, free of default, for the first time in 123 years. This historic achievement came from the greatest adjustment in history and reducing monetary emission to zero. A year ago, a degenerate printed 13% of GDP to win an election, fueling inflation. Today, monetary emission is a thing of the past.”
Argentina is a shining example of how a nation can survive the death grip of socialistic policies when drastic measures are taken. Yet, the West is keen on abandoning capitalism in favor of policies that historically fail and leave citizens in extreme poverty. Milei has continued to preach the success of his policies at every opportunity, warning the world that they are in serious danger if they attempt to adopt the very policies that nearly ruined Argentina.
Posted originally on Apr 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: The media including the financial media really going crazy with this Trump Tariff thing – as if the market wasn’t due for a pull back.
DS
REPLY: We had forecast that we would see a correction by April last year. I answered plenty of questions on various podcasts about whether this would be a big crash and the end of the bull market. I consistently warned that such a scenario was absurd, for that implied the classic flight to quality being government debt. Facing a global sovereign debt crisis, I warned that it was just not realistic. The press has latched onto this normal correction and is deliberately trying to crash the market with constant claims that tariffs will destroy the world economy.
This is the very same political scheme they used in 1932 to blame tariffs on Hoover and the Republicans to win the 1932 election. It was a total lie and a fabrication of history. We are witnessing the attempted coup of Trump by deliberately trying to force the stock market down in a desperate attempt to turn the Republicans against Trump and stop his entire agenda of ending the Democrats’ feeding trough for corruption. I was stunned by the conversation I had yesterday and a deliberate media attempted coup.
Tariffs do not cause a DEPRESSION, no matter how much the media is selling that story now, just as the Democrats did in 1932 to get FDR elected. They also failed to protect any country from the effects of the worldwide depression at the time.
Between 1925 and 1929, there were 33 general revisions or substantial tariff changes, nearly all of which raised tariffs. These included 26 European nations and 17 republics of Latin America. In 1927 and 1928, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand increased and expanded the scope of their tariffs. In Asia, China, Persia, and Siam also raised tariffs during the period. This was all before the 1929 Crash, which the history books omitted along with the 1931 Sovereign Defaults.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 was in response to the protectionism before 1929. During World War I, obviously, capital moved to the USA, as was the case for production, and also to Latin America. It was World War I that ended the sugar production that used to take place in Europe. It migrated to Java, Cuba, and other South American countries. You can see the huge spike in sugar during 1919/1920. After the war, the Europeans tried to bring back their economic dominance to recover their former glory. To try to achieve that, this was the start of the high tariffs that were really imposed against new competitors. That was the real essence of the trade war. Their high tariffs succeeded and brought sugar production back to Europe. The output during 1927-1928 was actually far greater than before the war in 1914.
The Europeans did the same with Cotton and wheat. This had the effect of creating overproduction, for which Europe lost export markets. This was the protectionist agenda that is rarely, if ever, explained beyond blaming the Smoot-Hawley Act.
There was a Tariff Reduction Bill of 1932, but this did not pass Congress. Here’s the breakdown:
Context: After the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930) raised tariffs to record levels, worsening the Great Depression, efforts were made to reverse this protectionist policy. By 1932, Democrats, who generally favored lower tariffs, controlled the House but not the Senate (which remained Republican until March 1933).
Legislative Efforts: Democratic lawmakers proposed tariff reduction bills in 1932, but they faced significant opposition. The Republican-controlled Senate and President Herbert Hoover, a protectionist, opposed lowering tariffs during an economic crisis.
Outcome: No major tariff reduction legislation was passed by both chambers of Congress in 1932. The pivotal shift came later with the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (1934) under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, which empowered the executive to negotiate tariff reductions.
In summary, despite the post-Smoot-Hawley backlash, the political landscape in 1932 prevented tariff reduction bills from passing Congress, as the Democrats were using this as an excuse to vote for FDR. The focus on austerity and revenue-raising measures (e.g., the Revenue Act of 1932) further sidelined such efforts.
The entire Tariff Issue of the 1930s was indeed just political. The Democrats used it to beat the Republicans over the head and pretended that the Tariffs caused the Great Depression. Today, we have the media, which hates Trump as they all tried so hard to defeat him, now they are deliberately blaming tariffs all over again for a normal correction that many kept call for a major crash before tariffs.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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