December Retail Sales Drop -1.1%, November Sales Data Revised Lower to -1.0%


Posted originally on the CTH on January 18, 2023 | Sundance 

There is something predictable about Main Street economics, eventually what you see around you overwhelms the great pretending.  CTH has been outlining the state of the consumer economy in great detail for quite a while, and though it is difficult to note when the outcomes will surface, eventually they do surface. [Reminder Here]

CONTEXT. CTH outlined the moment when the purchasing power of the U.S. middle class actually began contracting.  It was March and April of 2021 when that Rubicon was crossed.  We saw it in the second and third quarter data from 2021, but few were willing to admit.

What changed in those two months back in ’21 was a dramatic drop in the “unit sales” of stuff within the consumer economy.  The drop in unit sales was hidden because it happened simultaneously with the first wave of massive spike in prices.  Prices rose so fast the sales data was giving an artificial impression of sales growth, but in the background the actual unit sales dropped.   Those analysts correcting and adjusting historic data to ‘inflation adjusted terms’ are now noticing.

Additionally, and not coincidentally – because the metrics are connected, you will note this line from the Wall Street Journal review of the producer price index. “The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose 6.2% in December from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the slowest annual pace since March 2021.”  In essence, the current rate of wholesale price increase on materials is now returning to the rate of price increase that happened in the period when prices spiked.  Again, this is predictable.

Inflation is the measure of the ‘rate’ of price increase over time.  March and April of 2021 were the beginning of the first inflationary spike.

Driven almost entirely by the supply side shock from Biden energy policy, in the subsequent 20 months the rate of price increase skyrocketed, peaked August 2022, and now the rate of increase starts returning.  This does not mean price declines; this means the rate of growth in the price increase is lessening.

This is a cyclical outcome.

After 20 months of dropping unit sales, a result of massive price increases; and as the rate of inflation now starts to moderate created by the cyclical nature of it; what we now see is the inability of the price increases to continue hiding the drop in unit sales.   [Background pdf Data] Total retail sales data is now exposed and that’s why we will see this increasing story about negative sales data as the inflation cycle plateaus.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – Retail spending fell in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates, still-high inflation and concerns about a slowing economy pinched American consumers.

Purchases at stores, restaurants and online, declined a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in December from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales were also revised lower in November and have fallen three of the past four months.

The decline in retail spending late last year adds to signs that the U.S. economy is slowing. Hiring and wage growth eased in December, U.S. commerce with the rest of the world declined significantly in November, and existing-home sales have fallen for 10 straight months. The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that industrial production slumped in December, led by weakness in the manufacturing industry.

S&P Global downgraded its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth by a half percentage point to a 2.3% annual rate after Wednesday’s data releases. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month expect higher interest rates to tip the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year.

“The lag impact of elevated inflation weighs heavily on U.S. households, it’s very clear that the median American consumer is still reeling from the loss of wages in inflation-adjusted terms,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “We’re moving towards what I would expect to be a mild recession in 2023,” he added. (read more)

When the Baghdad Bob economic pretenders say, “mild recession,” anticipate something more akin to a mild nuclear meltdown, something with breadlines and soup kitchens.

Now, you must keep in mind that almost every financial media outlet used the same Retail Federation talking point about anticipating an 8% increase in holiday sales last year.  [Reminder] Apparently, collective pretenses must be maintained.  Meanwhile, news crews and camera crews were having a desperate time finding any holiday shopping to use as background footage for the claims that sales were strong.  Here we are in January and the pretending has hit reality.

Negative retail sales in November and December when prices are roughly +10% over the prior year, means the unit sales collapse was far more dramatic…. Far more.

Trying to survive policy driven price increases in housing costs, energy costs, electricity costs, home heating, food and fuel costs has forced consumers to reevaluate purchasing decisions.  Consumer demand for non-essential items has collapsed, and Americans are dig deep into their savings just to sustain unavoidable expenses.  Eventually, pretending this is not happening is going to run into the wall of reality.

On one hand the leaders of large multinationals must pretend everything is splendid; after all, the only acceptable position they can articulate is to support interest rates being raised because demand is just too darned high….  pretending.  But on the other hand – those same suppliers and multinationals are furiously trying to calculate how to avoid being stuck with billions worth of unsold inventory and idle industrial equipment.

Steven Crowder Goes to the Mattresses Against Big Con


Posted originally on the CTH on January 18, 2023 | Sundance 

Steven Crowder is a smart and witty voice, generally a happy warrior who has been in the battle against the cultural and political progressive movement for over a decade.  He’s been in the fight for quite a while and deserves a great deal of praise for bringing a generation of younger people into the fold.  I respect his long-established time in the trenches of the cultural war, and we are helping him deliver his message.

Crowder’s audience, the “Mug Club”, is likely a mix of Gen-Z and Gen-X rebels throwing sand into the machinery. He does a great job producing content that deconstructs the insanity of the political left in a way that works and expands his audience.  Crowder has almost 6 million YouTube subscribers and while I don’t follow him closely, the message he delivered yesterday is very pertinent.

The problem he outlines is an inside baseball dynamic taking place in the background of the conservative media.  It essentially boils down to a financial issue CTH raised a long time ago when the first signals of this troubling trend started.  Most of the “well known” conservative media outlets have been purchased and co-opted by a financial system that ultimately controls their content.  If you have the time, WATCH:

.

What Crowder is discussing is the reason why Michelle Malkin dropped out of the fight.  The “BigCon” Crowder notes is essentially like the Fox News of alternative media. They offer incentives to monetize the content provider (broadcaster, website, pod caster etc.) then lock the content providers into extremely controlling contracts that control the outcomes.

Ultimately, what the audience ends up seeing is an approved finished product that is acceptable to BigCon and Big Tech.  In essence they are in bed together to stop bold and alternative conversation and filtrate the message to shades of soft pastels.

Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA (TPUSA), Posobiec, Tim Poole, Conservative Review, CRTV (Glenn Beck, Blaze), Mark Levin, Dave Rubin, Salem Media [Townhall, Hot Air, Twitchy, Red State, PJ Media], The Daily Wire with Ben Shapiro, Candace Owens, the list of names and outlets who participate in this overall system is very long.   Upstream you will find the same financial underwriters, and all of them have a commonality.

Crowder is at an inflection point and obviously he is unwilling to capitulate to the guiding hands in control that no one is allowed to discuss.

Good for him.  I hope he can leverage his influence to break the control mechanism, give startups an alternative, and continue the rebellion.

Journalists don’t want to defend Biden because his policies have been disastrous: Sen. Ron Johnson


Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson calls out the Biden Family’s alleged corruption on ‘Hannity.’

Nunes: Vice Presidents don’t get to take classified documents home


Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes discusses the ramifications of President Joe Biden’s ongoing Garage Gate scandal on ‘Spicer & Co.,’ January 16, 2023.

IMPEACH THE ENTIRE INSTALLED OBAMA’s THIRD TERM ADMINISTRATION

Who is America’s Enemy? Russia or the other Political Party?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jan 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

In writing the Greatest Bull Market in History, published in 1986, I had to do all the original research. I read all the newspapers daily year after year to come to the realization that attitudes shift back and forth. It became very obvious that before FDR and the introduction of Marxism to the United States, the focus was on markets. With Roosevelt, he weaponized the Federal Reserve and just about everything else to further his agenda. Roosevelt demonized Pierre du Pont for he made a lot of money providing the weapons for World War I. Roosevelt called him the Merchant of Death, but then suddenly needed him again for World War II.

The nation is dividing significantly. This is why the United States cannot stand divided. The latest poll demonstrates that the forecast made by our computer is unsurpassed. The question presented was who is our enemy?

For Democrats, the top three results named Russia (31 percent) as our “greatest enemy,” followed by Republicans (26 percent) and China (16 percent).

For Republicans, the top three are China (35 percent), Russia (33 percent), and Democrats (12 percent).

We now are starting to see that we have an enemy within – the opposite political party. This is absolutely essential for it confirms the forecasts of our computer that have been common since our 2011 WEC.

The Madoff Cover-Up


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Jan 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

For those who just read the news and believe whatever they report, in the industry, everyone talks all the time. If Madoff was losing billions trading, everyone would have known. It is one thing to have a portfolio of assets that itself collapses in value which would NOT involve trading, then that presents a more private issue but everyone would suspect something for the news would be circulating around as to what he bought. There is just no way money vanishes. The likely prospect is that Bernie was aware of the dark side of Wall Street and perhaps facilitated that for a price.

Bernie’s case began on December 10th, 2008. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns both collapsed and the Fed took over Fannie & Freddie. The collapse of Lehman shocked the world and that unleashed real panic. That above all took down Madoff, but then came the bailout of AIG which was really to save Goldman Sachs. No doubt, Bernie was hit with withdrawals and on whatever investment he did have in place, he would have lost a fortune without a Ponzi scheme. With the practice of laundering money going on in NYC, no doubt the counterparty risks collapsed. That most likely pushed Bernie over the edge.

Understand one thing. Madoff did not collapse in isolation. His losses were curiously suddenly attributed to a Ponzi scheme. That was very convenient. Calling something a Ponzi scheme as a matter of law meant that EVERY transaction was a fraud. Therefore, that cuts off all investigations to understand what really happened. It is no longer needed because everything and every transaction need not be investigated because it was all Bernie as a fraud.

As long as they called it a “Ponzi Scheme” there was no investigation into money laundering.

In the Before Times….


Posted originally on the CTH on January 17, 2023 | sundance

Be rebellious and have fun doing it.

Live your best life.

Manipulated Economic News on Inflation – Prepare for Bad Corporate Earnings Reports as a Result of Poor Holiday Sales


Posted originally on the CTH on January 17, 2023 | sundance 

There has always been a general shaping and interpretation surrounding economic news, specifically as it relates to the impact of pricing on consumers and corporations. However, against the backdrop of supply side inflation, the financial gaslighting from the Wall Street Journal stands out at the top.

Without pretending, and looking directly at the Main Street reality, CTH has outlined inflation as a matter of monetary and energy policy.  From that standpoint the timing and scale of price increases (inflation measured over time) was predictable.  Our current status is an inflationary plateau, where prices remain high but stabilize for likely two quarters.

What the Wall Street Journal outlines as a “shopper rebellion against high prices” is complete hogwash.  Notice in the construct of the narrative, the demand side (consumers) is identified as the cause of diminished revenue & profits for corporations.  They continue pretending that inflation was not driven by energy costs.

(WSJ) – […] Many companies raised their prices substantially last year to offset higher fuel costs and higher prices for ingredients, parts and labor. As fuel prices have dropped and pandemic supply-chain snarls have eased, some of those costs have come down.

That is a good sign for the economy. It suggests that some inflation in the past year resulted from extreme supply-demand imbalances brought on by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine and which are now fading.

Notice the transparent lack of mentioning ‘energy policy’ as the inflation driver.

[…] The study, by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, found that higher markups—the gap between what a firm charges and what it costs to produce an item—were a major driver of inflation in 2021.

They concluded that companies in some cases were raising prices in 2021 in anticipation of future cost pressures, rather than because of market power or outsize demand. Andrew Glover, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City who was involved in the study, doesn’t expect prices to fall this year, he said, but he anticipates that the pace of increase will continue to slow.

Inflation is the rate of increase over time. We have experienced two years of massive price increases. Yes, the rate of those increases will moderate, this is the plateau, but the price will never drop. The current prices are a direct result of fixed energy policy.

[…] Unit sales of food and beverages fell 3% last year, but on a dollar basis they rose 10%. That showed consumers were willing to pay higher prices for groceries but bought fewer items.

[…] “People need to eat,” said Krishnakumar Davey, a president at IRI. Shoppers are nonetheless buying less when possible and, in many cases, buying less expensive versions of necessities such as toilet paper and laundry detergent.  (read more)

Meanwhile the Fed is worried that wages will be forced to increase.  Here is the real worry for the Wall Street Journal, “If consumers believe high prices will persist, they could seek bigger raises, and businesses, seeing higher labor costs, could continue raising prices.”  Yes, workers, forward inflation is your fault.

Government policy drives up prices, but workers needing wage increases to pay for those higher prices… well, that is not acceptable to the government, comrade proles.

The Majority MUST Always be Wrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools Re-Posted Jan 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Following the crowd of what is popular and supposed to be the cutting edge of investment, Robert Belfer, the oil Barron, lost billions with ENRON and then Bernie Madoff. Then he became a shareholder in FTX. With a track record like that, you certainly would be firing your financial adviser.  The inside joke about DAVOS is that whatever the theme forecast they put out and what they all talk about has NEVER been right. The joke is to do the opposite of the DAVOS forecast and you will make money. Andy Serwer, editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance, asked Warren Buffett in a 2019 interview about the DAVOS forecasts. He responded: “Well, I pay none as a guideline to doing anything,” Buffett responded. I have said many times, the majority MUST be wrong for they provide the market energy to create the boom/bust cycle. Because the majority buy the high, when they sell, you get the crash. When everyone is short at the bottom, you get the rally.

Madoff – Hiding the Real Fraud


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Jan 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I know you saved Mercedes making back their $1 billion lost all because they listened to the fake news about how the pound and the dollar would crumble in the face of the euro. I read the 2011 Barron’s article on your forecast. It was OK to publish that when they thought you would be wrong. Where is the follow-up when you proved to be the only one who was correct? The same can be said of the New York Times and especially Bloomberg. It is obvious that they will not report on the success of your forecasts because they are leading society at the direction of the Deep State.

Keep up the good work. We need someone independent in this time of darkening clouds.

JWN

REPLY: Let me explain something. All the hype about Bernie Madoff is also FAKE NEWS. On December 10th, 2008, Madoff’s sons Mark and Andrew covered themselves most likely at their father’s direction, and told authorities that their father had confessed to them that the asset management unit of his firm was a massive Ponzi scheme. They even supposedly told them it was “one big lie”. The next day, agents from the FBI arrested Madoff and charged him with one count of securities fraud. There was no possible way the FBI would arrest someone like that without an independent investigation.

The Securities and Exchange Commission had previously conducted numerous investigations into his business practices. Vere did ANY audit uncover such a massive fraud. It was then on March 12th, 2009, when Bernie Madoff simply pleaded guilty to 11 federal felonies and admitted to turning his wealth management business into a massive Ponzi scheme. He was not even indicted. He pled simply to what is known as an “information” so nothing was even presented to a grand jury. That is UNPRECEDENTED!

The banks all claimed that they had “no idea.” Before he died, Madoff did an interview where the headline was that the Banks had to have known. There is ABSOLUTELY no way that the banks were NOT involved or had no idea.  That is legally impossible. As a client of a bank of that size especially, the bank must fill its files with KNOWN YOUR CLIENT rules.

In my case, we had companies set up for each note in Turks & Caicos. The bank actually sent someone down there to audit the legal structure behind every account. There is simply no way a bank can even claim it had no idea. That was a serious RED FLAG that the Madoff case was not what it appeared.

Everyone just skipped over the fact that the SEC conducted multiple audits and found nothing. That included looking at bank accounts and positions on hand. That did NOT add up to a PONZI scheme where you are taking money from one person to pay another which is the actual structure of Social Security. The current generation’s contributions are tasked to pay the previous generation.

Add to that, HSBC, which has been itself indicted for money laundering more than once, stood out as the largest “victim” of Madoff’s scheme – $1.5 billion. HSBC pays countless fines for every scandal they seem to be in the middle of.

In my case, the Bank said they had no idea where the money was after they stole it. How does $1 billion leave a bank without a withdrawal of some sort? Had it not been for my clients standing with me and doing what I told them to do and then sued HSBC, they would have gotten nothing, the government would have claimed I lost it all and the ban was not responsible. The government then put a gag order on me to stop me from helping my clients against the bank! If the bank was not trying to take my client’s money to cover their losses in Russia, then why put a gag order on me if the bank did not do anything wrong?

Then to hide my profits, the receiver handed the notes we issued to HSBC for them to redeem for $606 million pocketing $400 million profit stolen from my company. A former employee bumped into a former HSBC official and he asked what the hell went on. The bankers bluntly told him, the deal offered by the government was too good to pass up. When I asked a NY lawyer why no banker ever is charged or goes to jail, he laughed and said: “You don’t shit where you eat!”

Remember the 1995 collapse of the British Barings Bank because of a “rogue” trader? Nicholas William Leeson was an English former derivatives trader whose claimed fraudulent, “unauthorized and speculative trades” resulted in the 1995 collapse of Barings Bank, the United Kingdom’s oldest merchant bank. Leeson was convicted of financial crime in Singapore court and served over four years in Changi Prison. At the time, I owned a Brokerage House I was asked to bail out by the Japanese government. At our Hong Kong office, Barings wanted to open an account to trade with Leeson in charge.

I knew the corruption of the banks and if the trade went wrong, they would claim he was not authorized. That was the standard operational procedure. Knowing the inside of the industry out, I insisted on a letter from the Board of Directions expressly laying out the credit line for Leeson they requested from my company. I got the letter. So when Leeson supposedly went belly up, guess what. I was quietly paid when everyone else it was said Leeson was a rogue trader.

The New York Post journalist Isabel Vincent who wrote Gilded Lilly, the wife of Edmond Safra, had called me and asked that since I had said that Republic National Bank, Edmond Safra’s, had been illegally trading in my accounts, did I think they were laundering money for the Russian mafia “as they were doing in Madoff’s?” I said I did not know. All I could tell was there were countless errors constantly being put into my accounts and then backed out. At first, I assumed they were “parking trades” in my accounts to use my cash for their margin. Of course, if the “error” was backed out to a different account, they indeed, they were engaging in money laundering.

The court-appointed forensic accountant even wrote to the court about the unprecedented errors in the accounts. The government refused to provide account information to allow them to audit what was going on. The court-appointed counsel, David Cooper, I believe was doing everything he could to help the government cover everything up. The forensic accountant then sent letters to the Judge, and he took no action.

You now have the FTX scandal. You will see that there will NEVER be a trial that would expose all the money laundering where the Democrats had Zelensky, which supposedly needed money to defend his country and fee starving Ukrainians, hand the money to FTX who then happened to be the #2 donor to the Democrats for the midterms. Guess what! Sam Bankman-Fried was charged in the most corrupt court in the nation – the Southern District of New York. The Court of Appeals admitted on page 97 of US v Ziccehtello, that judges are altering transcripts and changing the very words spoken in court.  That is 20 years in prison if you or I alter court documents. They do it all the time. When I confronted Judge Richard Owen about this practice, so many people showed up in court to see what would happen. The lawyers said you can’t accuse a federal judge of committing a crime. I said you all say they do it. They responded. Yes, but you cannot accuse them of doing it. The judge got scared and admitted it in public but claim it wasn’t material.

All the press was there AP, New York Times, Bloomberg, NT Post, you name it. NOT a single member of the press reported what took place that day. OMG! Exposing the federal courts corruption? Impossible!

If a case is a high profile, you will NEVER see the truth in the media.