German Treasury Secretary of Hesse Commits Suicide


It is with deep regret that the German Treasury Secretary of the federal state of Hesse, Thomas Schäfer, killed himself on March 28th, 2020. He oversaw Hesse‘s biggest city, Frankfurt, where we would hold our conferences and it remains the European capital for international banks. I know he was deeply concerned that this Coronavirus-Crisis was being used to destroy the economy. Thomas understood what was taking place and also understood he would not be able to deal with the absurd expectations of the general public about financial relief that was being pushed over a crisis that did not appear to warrant such a reaction.

Thomas was one of the good guys. My deepest condolences to his family. I understand his pessimism for what is to come post-Coronavirus. It is extremely difficult to watch something unfold and be unable to do anything to stop the momentum. Suicide becomes the option when it is just easier to leave than it is to stay.

Manipulating the World Economy Update


The books we listed on eBay are delayed in being mailed out because they are being printed in Pennsylvania. Our printer is located there but actually does print for hospitals so he is designated essential. So the problem was not the printing. The problem became that we cannot hire some temp workers up there to mail out the books. So they will be delayed probably for another week until the chaos clears and the governor of Pennsylvania comes to his senses. I have been told that some are selling the Second Edition on eBay. I presume they are not in Pennsylvania.

We are ordering more books since they keep selling out. I support this is a sign of the time – sheer chaos.

 

Sorting the Nonsense & Prejudices from the Truth of Reality


COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong; I want to say thank you so much. I am not sure you are even aware of how right you have been during this entire debacle and I am not referring to just your forecast of the decline in the stock market which saved my future. While everyone was regurgitating the worst scenarios and how this disease was going to kill so many you stood your ground against the world. The conspiracy theories were this was a biological weapon, but you said no. Some claimed the government was hiding how bad it would get and others were predicting we would be segregated into internment camps. You alone said these were exaggerated and that your models showed that the real disease would be in 2022 not now. I read even __ which gathers all the newsletters but interestingly avoids you because you are different and are not a gold bug that they only quote and this doomsday prophecy we were all going to die from a disease. They only aided the panic and never once would report what you had to say proving they too are just fake news.

Your computer has proven to be reliable, dispassionate, and the only such model that has ever been correct on a consistent basis. You deserve more than the Nobel Prize because I question if that is even prestigious enough. They hand it out to like candy and then their accomplishment proves to be fake like Black and Scholes or just political Obama getting the peace prize when he wanted to invade Syria.

The contribution to humanity you try so hard to accomplish is having an impact.

Thank you so much. I cannot express how much of a difference you have made during this entire crisis.

BH

COMMENT #2: Hi Marty
thanks for keeping us informed to whats really happening in the world. You are the only person I actually read and listen to concerning this sham.
You said that the Uk Government has downgraded the threat of the virus. That hasn’t been announced in the UK or in Scotland where I am. Any idea why they are still keeping people in lock down when they know this isnt dangerous at all.
All the best to you
maria

COMMENT #3: Hi Martin, I wanted to share something: this is not socialism coming. It is totalitarianism. What we have had so far is not Capitalism, it’s Cartelism. This is now a bloodless international coup taking place to centralize all power, to reduce the world’s masses to total utter dependency on the global elite technocrats, with a militarized police state protecting the elites from civil unrest. Small businesses are NEVER coming back. Mark my words.
Thank you for all your work!
SP

COMMENT #4 HI Marty
I was aware of the virus downgrade report on the UK Govt health website. It’s been there for about a week. And, if you do a search, there is …… s i l e n c e …. [sound of crickets chirping]….. No major media outlet has reported it.
An email to the BBC, politely asking where they have reported it, remains unanswered.
Power grab coup – all govts being sat on from above.
JF – Liverpool, UK

REPLY: Thank you. I hope one day we can show the world there is a better way to manage our economy instead of trying to manipulate it for political gain. It is interesting why governments are not reversing themselves in like of the bogus studies. This smells like indeed a convenient opportunity for power. Just can’t hand it back now.

Life is a quest for knowledge. When there is nothing left to explore, it is time to die. Being an international adviser and hedge fund manager, I had a front-row seat in the world economy. I have been taught by my clients. I observed that the sum of the whole was indeed made up of the parts. Tracking the movement of money for investment flows showed the ebb and flow of global confidence. While others created indexed based on trade, like the dollar index, I found such presumptions ludicrous. Trade is such a small portion of capital flows that such biases cloud our judgment and blinds us to the trend.

In studying history I came to realize that there was a cycle to innovation as well. I agreed with Schumpeter‘s view of Creative Destruction. I set out to construct a model that was free to explore the world and to return like a dog in a game of go fetch. It proved to me it was making some profound discoveries that people are too prejudiced to ever see.

I appeared with Walter Bressert I believe in 1982 or 1983 on Financial News Network in California which began in 1981 and became CNBC in 1991. I gave the forecast on the British pound that it would fall from $240 to par by 1985. The host turned to Walt and asked about that outrageous forecast. Walt said he would never bet against my computer.

I had to develop speech capability back then just to be able to communicate because it was making what I thought were impossible forecasts. I worked with Dragon Systems in the ’80s when the speech was all hardware. I needed to be able to inquire how it came up with such a forecast as it did on the British pound. For it has also projected that the politics would flip (i.e. Margaret Thatcher) and that the British economy would invert and align more with the USA against continental Europe. That prediction seemed to be really off-the-wall. I inquired: why?

Socrates showed a correlation with the discovery of North Sea Oil. In 1970, British Petroleum made its first discovery of commercial oil in the large Forties Field, although oil was not produced until 1976. By 1974, it was apparent that North Sea oil could provide a massive source of energy, and also revenue. The computer picked up the capital flows and determined that the British economy would align with the United States as it was becoming a commodity-linked economy.

The success of Socrates is entirely based upon the fact that it is NOT dependent upon human assumptions for as this crisis has proven, a faulty assumption produces serious mistakes coming out – Garbage in – Garbage out. You cannot create a model that starts with a human presumption or bias. Create a model that is hard-wired that assumes interest rates up and the stock will crash will never work. That is not a mode, it is a flawed program that just repeats human mistakes and prejudices.

Real Artificial Intelligence is not an expert system where it simply looks up human conclusions. So many pretend to have AI but all they do is simply look up predetermined conclusions. True AI must explore and reason for itself. Only then can we rely upon such computer programs.

I have never seen any Neural Network accomplish actually work nor any Expert System which is just looking up the answers in a list created by humans. The Neural Network simply tried to mimic the construction of the human brain and assumes that if you throw in enough data it will learn. Even IBM’s Watson failed. Socrates is the ONLY fully functioning Artificial Intelligence system in the world that is monitoring the entire global economy and all its components – PERIOD!

Money cannot buy everything in life. I turned down $500 million for Socrates where it would have just provided analysis for a single user. I rejected the request of the CIA to build a version for the US government. I offered to run any study they asked and was told they “had to own it.”

I do not need money. I suppose because I have had that luxury in life of having a talent to be a trader it has allowed me to be independent. Sure there are people who hate my guts because they cling to old theories like the Austrian-School of Economics and refuse to review the fact that the world economy is not determined by the simple Quantity Theory of Money (QTM). That is what Keynesian Economics is based on and how central banks operate.

This entire QTM is just a fool’s game for they just ignore the fact that China, Japan, and Germany all rose without gold. Under their theory, Russia should be the leading world economy having gold, silver, diamonds, and energy. Their minds are closed and they would persecute anyone who disagreed just as those who rejected the idea that the earth was not flat or that the Wright Brothers could fly even after they were doing it for 2 years preferring to call them frauds.  Heinrich Schliemann who discovered Troy, Mycenae and many other places mentioned in Homer they also called a fraud because he proved they too were wrong. The academics also declared Historia Augusta to be fake because it mentioned Roman emperors they never heard of during the 3rd century. When two gold coins were discovered in Egypt of Saturninus, the book they called a fraud showed it was the academics who were wrong again just as we have witnessed with the virus.

So I believe I am in good company.

The dark side of humanity is the prejudices we harbor. We have to surrender that to the universe and be willing to follow the logic and the facts. Until then, humans are incapable of emotionally evolving. This is why history repeats because the passions of humankind never change through the centuries. Those who are the naysayers will cling to their prejudices and they would love to burn me at the stake as they did to Bruno. I really do not care because I know they will leave nothing behind but the obstruction of knowledge and are incapable of ever having an original thought.

The WEC & Networking


COMMENT #1: Martin attending the WEC for 4 years now has been the greatest PHD program, in reality, one could ever get.  And the most important thing you have taught me is, “We are all connected.”  It’s no accident that the trees in the fall look like a frozen lightning bolt, our veins, the pattern of a river from the sky and also your lungs.

And something you were doing that I didn’t understand till this crisis started.  Networking.  I have made many friends at these conferences and we have stayed in touch…But once this crisis started I now have a team and I mean team of people reaching out form around the world contacting me giving info, explaining things I don’t understand and more than a trade, Looking out for my feature.  I am closer to these people that many families and lifetime friends.

This, as you have described is turning out to be one big, poorly written story in which that masses have take hook line and sinker.  Repeat, Repeat, Repeat the lie.
This conditioning was what common core was all about and there are so many agendas being ticked off the Marxist box it’s frightening.  From forced vaccination to Robotics.  My wife works for a defense company. And now that an older man has come down with the virus the question becomes, Do we shut down the office every time someone gets a virus.

With that as the background, If this is so dangerous, Why is Governor Cuomo bringing his Daughter, a non Government, non-essential to work.

And the panicked mayor goes to the gym?

P.S. You are more than a blessing and I went to you thinking I’d understand the Economy better and have left learning how to be a better human.

Thank you.

AW

COMMENT #2: I was skeptical about your events. I met someone who attended. He said you do not try to raise money or solicit something. I attended your Orlando WEC last year. You have saved my financial life. I heard at the event people saying you spend $750,000 just on the food for everyone. I wanted to say thank you from the bottom of my heart.

DK

REPLY: Yes, the WEC events have become a tradition. The networking is tremendous. It is very gratifying to see how everyone connects and develops friends internationally. If you throw a wedding for your child, you know the cost is outrageous. Not that is supplying just one dinner. We have to provide three meals a day and then the cocktail party. The drinks alone cost usually between $75,000 to $100,000. They are certainly not boxed lunch affairs.

It was very disappointing that we had to can the WEC in Shanghai. So many people from the West wanted to meet the like-minded in China. We still have our fingers cross for Europe, but declaring emergency power for one year in Germany makes me wonder.

I did TV show in Germany and there was a girl dress in jeans. I assumed she was just part of the film crew but she was just sitting listening to me. To get into this facility required clearance. I had to bring my passport to prove I was the person invited. When I finished, this girl got up and quickly left. I saw her rush out and jumped on a motorbike and sped off. She was there to monitor what I was saying.

I think Orlando will be OK. Just not sure about Europe yet if this is a major power-grab.

Managing Money v Teaching You How to Survive


QUESTION: Marty, they have always called you the Legend. You have proved that you are probably the greatest trader that ever existed. You not only have choreographed when the correction would start, but you have held our hand through this entire decline. Again you said the market would decline into the 23 of March and that should be the temporary low. Nobody forecasts markets like you do and that is why everyone tries to ignore you while others hate you out of jealousy. Won’t you return to funds management? Please! We could really use you in these troubling times.

SH

ANSWER: I greatly appreciate the fact that many people have been writing in to say thank you. I prefer working on Socrates. Only on the private blog do we provide forecasts to the day. We do not provide that on the open blog. If I just managed money, I would not have the time to write or program. I believe in the old saying, if you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.

My goal is to prove that markets are orderly and it is total nonsense that there is some random walk. That is an excuse for someone who is not a student of the markets and cannot see the order because they take no responsibility for their own losses. It is easier to always blame someone else.

Yes, they have called me the legend. I suppose that is better than the oracle given that strategy is just to buy and hold so you look like a hero in bull markets and take massive losses in every decline. Markets rise and markets fall. You NEVER marry the trade! That is the sure-fire way for a fool to be separated from his money.

The object here is to understand how markets function for if we grasp that revelation, then we can manage our economy and live WITH the cycle instead of always fighting against it. Academics try to reduce the market to theories yet they fail to understand human emotion. They will advocate lowering interest rates as if someone will borrow when they see no future. The absurdity of Keynesian Economics is beyond belief yet they have attempted to manage the world economy based upon a theory that has never worked even once. Even Pail Volcker admitted that in his book on Rediscovery of the Business Cycle.

I have stated many times that Karl Marx killed more people than any religious war and in fact, all wars put together. He was responsible for hundreds of millions of deaths. Yet the left keeps trying to force his theories upon society creating havoc, hatred, and class warfare. They violate even the very Ten Commandments which aside from religion, appears to have been a pearl of respected ancient wisdom we refuse to listen to. Why does the left keep trying to push Marxism upon society? They simply covet what other people have and want to punish others for being more successful.

We have shut down the entire world economy for less than 20,000 deaths worldwide? This is a joke. Either John Hopkins University has deliberately been part of a plot to further Marxism or they are outright ignorant of what they are doing. They have supported the destruction of human rights and liberty advocating you kill the patient to cure the disease. More people die in car crashes annually than this death toll no less the annual flu which kills hundreds of thousands of people. We do not surrender our rights and close the economy for such events. So why this virus?

The red dots of John Hopkins University are outright propaganda. They are not current. They do not disappear with the virus subsiding. Look at China. They are deliberately misleading and make it appear as if whole countries are infected supporting stay at home and marshal law. This is propaganda they have been promoting and we have governments declaring emergency powers to end democratic processes thanks to this misleading graphic which is historical rather than current and the dots may represent just one case, not the entire state.

We are fools for what is taking place. There are dark forces whipping this up into a panic for the sole purpose of creating authoritarian powers because they do understand my models and they are scared of losing power. We have Democrats holding parties calling this the Trump Virus. They are cheering the destruction of the economy just to get rid of Trump. Their hatred of him is deeply concerning for the veneer of civilization has been removed and we stand on the precipice of civil unrest and bloodshed all in the name of Marx. I recently asked a Democrat why do they hate Trump so much. They could not articulate a single act he has done. They simply said presidents shouldn’t Tweet.

Governments can see the Monetary Crisis Cycle coming to destroy their systems. This is the best way for them to fight back. I have warned my concern was what comes AFTER Trump. My deepest fear is the loss of all civil liberties and fools are cheering this on without understanding what they are wishing for.

I am concerned about the future for my posterity. They will NEVER know the world in which I grew up in.

There is a government now who wants to openly use our models to trade. They have one of the top 5 wealth funds in the world. I believe they will open it up to manage money using our models. But I have ZERO interest in returning to funds management. Other countries in Asia have openly admitted they are using “Capital Flow Analysis” which is our model at the central bank level.

Again, I greatly appreciate the trust and confidence. But I prefer to teach you how to fish for a lifetime rather than to feed you for just one day. This is a picture of my backyard. It is my sanctuary from the craziness of the world. I will feed the birds. They know where to get a free meal. That will last only when I am here – not forever. What we face is more serious. We have to learn that the world is not a toy for us to manipulate as they are doing right now to retain power. They will fail for the system they seek is just not sustainable. So I prefer to teach you how to see the world so you can survive rather than manage money like feeding the birds for a day.

Why the Dow is Different From S&P 500 & NASDAQ


QUESTION: Hello,
I have been following you for several years and being retired your emails along with my coffee are a great way to start the day. I want to stay limber and laser focused on one index. I chose the S&P because of the volume; both ETF and options.
I know a rising tide lifts all boats; but you seem to be all about the DOW. Of the two (or three IWM); any comments about which one(s) are more for trading than investing?
Thank you again
CS

ANSWER: Socrates covers over 1,000 markets daily. The Dow is a reflection of the big money and international capital flows. The S&P 500 is more domestic oriented and used among institutions and fund managers, whereas the NASDAQ has more of a tendency to be retail. On the rally up from 2009, the Dow led. Note that at the peak here in 2020, the Dow peaked first, then the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ made new highs into February taking the lead from the Dow. That was the kiss of death and confirmation that a sharp correction was then possible.

Socrates is now Opening for Small Business ( I ENDORSE THIS – you have nothing to lose)


EMAIL: AEInstitutionalServices@Gmail.com

This comment is added to Armstrong’s offer by Centinel2012.  I have been following Marty for a long time now and his advise is the best, by far, of anyone on the planet either private of government.