Pennsylvania Senate Republican Race is a Dead Heat as Candidates Make Closing Arguments


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

The republican primary race in Pennsylvania is essentially a three-way tie going in to voting day tomorrow.  All three of the top candidates are carrying approximately 25 percent of the vote with around 15 percent still undecided.   It really is anyone’s race.

President Trump has sent robocalls into Pennsylvania to support Mehmet Oz as a last-minute effort to push his endorsement over the line. “I’ve just spent a lot of time with him. I did endorse him, and the reason is he’s tough, he’s smart and he really loves our country and he wants to do a great job for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”

Fox News Sean Hannity also hosted Mehmet Oz on his evening broadcast to deliver his closing arguments, while Fox News Laura Ingraham provided the same opportunity for David McCormick.  In the counterbalancing effort, Steve Bannon hosted Kathy Barnette for an interview Monday providing her the opportunity to speak to the Bannon audience.

The wild aspect to this race is the still high number of undecided voters as the final hours count down.   McCormick representing the party candidate, with both Oz and Barnette splitting the MAGA base.  Pennsylvania undecideds have a tough decision.

Mehmet Oz is not trusted by the base despite President Trump’s endorsement.  Kathy Barnette is the landing place for many base voters who do not want to support the establishment McCormick and cannot bring themselves to vote for Oz.  However, democrats and left-wing media are already showing their intent to weaponize Barnette’s attendance at the J6 rally in Washington DC, if she should win the primary {Video Here}.

As expected, David McCormick’s current position tying all three of them at the top of the polling, appears to have resulted as a splitter strategy from the fractured MAGA base.

Many people just cannot support Mehmet Oz because of his prior positions on issues of importance.  Oz is by far President Trump’s most controversial endorsement of the year.  As an outcome, those who refuse to vote for Oz lean heavily toward Kathy Barnette.

(Via Politico) – […] “You are seeing people move to McCormick because he is a trustworthy conservative,” said James Schultz, a former Trump White House lawyer who is close to McCormick’s campaign. “We have seen for this entire cycle Mehmet Oz’s struggle with the truth. With Barnette, there have been many questions surrounding her truthfulness as well.”

Messaging from McCormick’s campaign on Monday appeared to concede that he is one of multiple candidates crowded at the front of the pack. The campaign wrote in an election eve press release that McCormick would make the case to Republicans that he is “the only front-runner who grew up in Pennsylvania and shares the same conservative values as PA voters.”

A series of other twists in recent days have added to the sense of volatility ahead of Tuesday’s primary election. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the leading Democratic Senate candidate, remains hospitalized after suffering a stroke over the weekend. And Trump, on Saturday weighed in with a last-minute endorsement in the governor’s race, picking Doug Mastriano, the candidate who is publicly backing and campaigning with Barnette.  (read more)

This race will be very interesting to watch on Tuesday as the votes come in.  However, with the race so close, and with all three of the leading candidates willing to request a recount, we might not even know the results tomorrow.


Project Veritas Releases Video of Senior Twitter Engineer Describing Culture and Ideology of The Platform


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance 

A senior engineer working for the Twitter social media platform is captured on undercover video explaining the culture and ideology of the people who work within the organization.

In the video Twitter Sr. Engineer, Siru Murugesan, a self-described communist, explains why most of his colleagues are freaked out about Twitter being purchased by Elon Musk and operating as a capitalistic company.  Many might have to work more than 4 hours a week to earn their salary. WATCH:

[NEW YORK – May 16, 2022] Project Veritas published explosive undercover footage on Monday night featuring one of Twitter’s senior engineers discussing the dynamics behind internal reactions to the acquisition of the tech company by business magnate, Elon Musk.

In the video, Twitter Sr. Engineer, Siru Murugesan, says many of his colleagues have voiced “this would be my last day if it happens,” referring to Musk’s high publicized intended purchase of Twitter. He also says employees at Twitter are “stress-eating” and “worried for our jobs.”

More significant than those soundbites are the reasons he says employees at Twitter feel this way. (read more)

The Twitter Bot Inquiry Intensifies as Musk is Seemingly Stiff Armed


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

The ramifications for Twitter surrounding fake users or algorithmic bots are considerable.  One issue is overcharging advertisers for ad impressions based on mDAU’s, which are “monetized Daily Active Users.”  The second issue is an outcome of the first and relates to the valuation of Twitter.  If Twitter bots are higher than Twitter estimates, then the mDAU rate is overstated.

Elon Musk is indicating there may need to be a lowering of the purchase price unless Twitter becomes transparent with how they are calculating the number of bot users at less than 5%.  All outside reviews attempting to estimate the number of fake accounts, or bots, puts the estimations considerably higher than the claims by Twitter.  Elon Musk tweeted:

At “The All In Summit 2022,” Elon Musk gave the impression the purchase price of Twitter may be tenuous.  He said that a deal with a lower price tag is not “out of the question,” Bloomberg reported.  “Currently, what I’m being told is that there’s just no way to know the number of bots… It’s like, as unknowable as the human soul,” Musk said at the Miami conference, per a social media video, Bloomberg added.

Twitter CEO Parag Agrwal has responded to the controversy in a very obtuse twitter thread:

Let’s talk about spam. And let’s do so with the benefit of data, facts, and context…

First, let me state the obvious: spam harms the experience for real people on Twitter, and therefore can harm our business. As such, we are strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can, every single day. Anyone who suggests otherwise is just wrong.

Next, spam isn’t just ‘binary’ (human / not human). The most advanced spam campaigns use combinations of coordinated humans + automation. They also compromise real accounts, and then use them to advance their campaign. So – they are sophisticated and hard to catch.

Some final context: fighting spam is incredibly *dynamic*. The adversaries, their goals, and tactics evolve constantly – often in response to our work! You can’t build a set of rules to detect spam today, and hope they will still work tomorrow. They will not.

We suspend over half a million spam accounts every day, usually before any of you even see them on Twitter. We also lock millions of accounts each week that we suspect may be spam – if they can’t pass human verification challenges (captchas, phone verification, etc).

The hard challenge is that many accounts which look fake superficially – are actually real people. And some of the spam accounts which are actually the most dangerous – and cause the most harm to our users – can look totally legitimate on the surface.

Our team updates our systems and rules constantly to remove as much spam as possible, without inadvertently suspending real people or adding unnecessary friction for real people when they use Twitter: none of us want to solve a captcha every time we use Twitter.

Now, we know we aren’t perfect at catching spam. And so this is why, after all the spam removal I talked about above, we know some still slips through. We measure this internally. And every quarter, we have estimated that <5% of reported mDAU for the quarter are spam accounts.

Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews (in replicate) of thousands of accounts, that are sampled at random, consistently over time, from *accounts we count as mDAUs*. We do this every quarter, and we have been doing this for many years.

Each human review is based on Twitter rules that define spam and platform manipulation, and uses both public and private data (eg, IP address, phone number, geolocation, client/browser signatures, what the account does when it’s active…) to make a determination on each account.

The use of private data is particularly important to avoid misclassifying users who are actually real. FirstnameBunchOfNumbers with no profile pic and odd tweets might seem like a bot or spam to you, but behind the scenes we often see multiple indicators that it’s a real person.

Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5% – based on the methodology outlined above. The error margins on our estimates give us confidence in our public statements each quarter.

Unfortunately, we don’t believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can’t share). Externally, it’s not even possible to know which accounts are counted as mDAUs on any given day.

There are LOTS of details that are very important underneath this high-level description. We shared an overview of the estimation process with Elon a week ago and look forward to continuing the conversation with him, and all of you.  (Link to Twitter Article)

Methinks Parag Agrwal doth protest too much….  Especially if you overlay the ideological incentives that Twitter carries into its operational platform.

If you accept that Twitter is manipulating the public conversation intentionally (they are), then Twitter bots would serve an ideological function.  However, the issue of ‘bots’ operating on the Twitter platform is interesting when you consider the cost of platform operation.

On one hand, extensive auto-generated ‘bots’ would be an issue of cost and data-processing, a net negative.  On the other hand, the use of bots would be a manipulative practice for the creation of false impressions to generate advertising revenue.

If the scale of data-processing was subsidized, an outcome of a network of data processing centers -the AWS cloud- linked to government resources, the bots would not be a cost issue for the operation.  Despite the false impressions generated, bots would, however, under this weird situation, be useful for the manipulation of the conversation.

At the root of Elon Musk’s line of inquiry is the need to discover if this suspicion is true.

If the scale of bots has been underestimated (likely by a willfully blind operation) the advertising fees charged by Twitter were potentially fraudulent.  This is another operational reason (mitigating lawsuits from advertisers) for Musk to make the determination prior to the final purchase of the platform.

Taking Twitter private as a company, eliminating bots (which is essentially removing fraudulent users) then carries the potential benefits of both lowering costs and positioning the company to increase genuine ad revenue from authenticated users as real people.

Many people suspect the size of the political left on the Twitter platform is manipulated by programatic bots.  Meaning there seems to be more people on the left side of the spectrum because bots are deployed to give the impression of like-minded users.  I am one of the people who believe this suspicion is accurate, because it would be a typical way the ideological left operates.

The bots would be in addition to the deployment of algorithms that are designed to suppress speech the platform operators do not like.

I have long suspected the Twitter algorithm process is essentially assigning certain users into specifically designed data-processing containers where their voice is suppressed.   Some people call this ‘shadow-banning,’ I simply call it suppression.

Elon Musk represents a threat to the way the platform was/is designed to operate.  If Musk removes the discussion constraints, opens the containers and removes the restrictions, while simultaneously eliminating bots and fake accounts, the entire perspective of the platform could change very quickly.  This is what I think the current board and operators are trying to avoid.

Another rudimentary way to look at it…. Think about the last several months of public opinion polls.   Despite the efforts of a compliant media, repeatedly we see a 75/25 split against Biden and leftist policies.  The 3:4 and/or 4:5 ratio has been a consistent pattern for several months.  That ratio shows up in almost every poll.  However, if you look at Twitter that ratio is not present in the “organic” conversation about the same issues.

As CTH has said for many years, there are more of us than them.  However, Big Tech controls the mechanisms we use to communicate – and as a consequence the scale of our assembly is severely understated.

Twitter user fraud is the digital and social media equivalent to voter election fraud.   The voices raised in opposition to researching both issues are exactly the same.

Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious….

Ten People Killed, 3 Wounded, After 18-year-old Gunman Opens Fire in Buffalo Supermarket


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 14, 2022 | Sundance

What appears to be a horrific racially motivated attack has left 10 people dead, including a store security guard at a Buffalo grocery store earlier today.

Police arrested 18-year-old Peyton Gendron at the scene after Buffalo police charged into the store and confronted the gunman in the vestibule.  Press Conference VIDEO:

(Via Daily Mail) – […] Gendron was caught by police emerging from the Tops Friendly Supermarket, at 1275 Jefferson Avenue about 2.30pm after shooting 13 people, 10 fatally. 

Police said 11 of those shot were black, with the other two white, and suggested Gendron had walked through the supermarket looking for specific people to target, although didn’t say whether this was based on the color of their skin.

Aaron Salter Jr, a former Buffalo police officer, is the first victim that’s been named in the attack. The father of three is being hailed as a hero after exchanging gunfire with Gendron inside the market. 

Gendron apparently scrawled the n-word on his rifle before carrying out Saturday’s massacre at Tops Friendly Supermarket in Buffalo. 

Three gunshot victims are being treated for their injuries, and cops say 11 of those shot were black. 

Gendron lived-streamed the assault as he opened fire inside the Tops Friendly Supermarket, at 1275 Jefferson Avenue, at about 2.30pm.

Police described the incident as a ‘heavily armed’ attack. 

‘He exited his vehicle. He was very heavily armed. He had tactical gear. He had a tactical helmet on. He had a camera that he was livestreaming what he was doing,’ city Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia said at a news conference. (read more)

Lying Biden


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden has been lying to the public since he entered his political career decades ago. Yet, he allegedly received more votes than any US president in history. Trust no one.

CNN Claims Pro-Life Supporters Will Turn Violent with SCOTUS Victory, Amish Extremists now Threatening ANTIFA Peacekeepers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 7, 2022 | Sundance

No, it’s not opposite day.  This example is just another example of how the Ministry of Truth operates.  Political violence is speech, unless actual speech is heard from their opposition; then, it becomes violence.  War is peace. Water is dry, etc. George Orwell sighs. {Direct Rumble Link}

Knowing there is an increased likelihood of violence incited by far-left democrat activists and the White House, CNN moves their advance narrative engineering team into place to lay the blame for violence at the feet of their political opposition.  With Roe -v- Wade potentially being overturned, Amish extremists are now going to lay siege to the peaceful assembly of ANTIFA in DC, or something equally stupid.  WATCH:

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If the issues were not serious, this nonsense from CNN would be funny.  Far left activists have been threatening the Supreme Court justices and the White House has been provoking their political allies to keep up the anger against the court.  As a result, every sub-chapter of leftist political activism has been triggered to a state of rage and grievance.  The rhetoric and hatred expressed toward the justices on the court has been extreme.

However, CNN redefines the mob by calling them “right-wing”, the exact opposite of who is making the threats.

Keep in mind, none of the previous ANTIFA or Black Lives Matter violence could take place without the expressed support from the FBI.  If the FBI wanted to stop riots, political violence or the unlawful intimidation of federal judges, they could.

It would be very easy for the FBI to intercept the people making threats and arrest them for intimidation of federal judges.  18 U.S.C. § 1503 – Whoever . . . corruptly or by threats or force, or by any threatening letter or communication, influences, obstructs, or impedes, or endeavors to influence, obstruct, or impede, the due administration of justice, shall be (guilty of an offense).”   The reason the FBI and DOJ are staying silent, is because the FBI and DOJ support the targeting of the Supreme Court.  It really is that simple.

It should be alarming how the Executive Branch of the United States Government is openly targeting the Judicial Branch of the United States Government, but that point seems to be completely missed by everyone.   U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland standing aside while extremists in the democrat party attack supreme court justices only highlights how political the DOJ and FBI have become.

Last night, Fox News host Tucker Carlson drew attention to the media portrayal and the violent targeting now condoned by DHS, DOJ, FBI and the White House. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

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The Fed & The Collapse of Socialism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Been following Martin since 2008 (Gold ride) – he is the only one who has been right AU and AG top 2011.
****Important question for Martin, please
How can the fed raise rates with governments owing so much debt please ???? what are the consequences of debt restructured? 100 year treasury real estate
Thanks you so much for sharing all your insights

JT

ANSWER: The Federal Reserve is independent. Despite all the nonsense that these pretend analysts attribute everything to the actions of the Fed, if they really knew their history, they would realize that the Fed has often been at war with the White House. You cannot be an objective analyst when you predetermine a conclusion based upon a theory you choose to believe. This is the sad state of analysis these days. People start with the conclusion and then cherry-pick the facts to support what they think should be the outcome. This is what has plagued gold analysis, but the very same process has doomed climate change analysis and the destruction of the world economy.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the Quantity Theory of Money, these analysts take the position of politicians and exonerate themselves of all responsibility for their reckless fiscal spending. They endlessly try to bribe the people to vote for them. I have stated many times, pre-1971, when it was illegal to borrow against an E-Bond, for example, the theory was printing money increased the supply and was inflationary. Thus, borrowing did not increase the money supply and was not inflationary. But when you can post T-Bills as collateral and trade the markets, that theory is no longer valid, so debt is now simply money that pays interest the way it began in 1861. We seem to always return to the starting place, like the game of Monopoly where you must pass Go every trip around the board.

Socialism is the worst form of government; just look at the Democrats. They do not know how to run for office without promising free something or other. It is never about the fate of the world, the nation, or our families. They are promoting war because they assume that the people will not change the government in the middle of a war. They have no problem watching our people die.

The Fed has ZERO control over fiscal spending. Nevertheless, the Fed has been itself brainwashed, and because everyone blames them for inflation, they will be compelled to raise rates or suffer the calls for their overthrow. The increased cost in the deficit will never be blamed on them — only the inflation rate. This is why the central banks have ZERO control over the economy anymore. Soon, people will wake up and realize that this statement is true. When they do, we will get a 1987-style panic.

Here is a chart of the dollar index. The dollar had already begun its decline when they stood up at the Plaza Accord, announcing they wanted the dollar down by 40%. As the dollar began to fall rapidly, other member nations complained. In February 1987, they gathered together to announce that the dollar had fallen too far and enough was enough. When the dollar continued lower, the then G7 lost all credibility, and the markets suddenly realized they were not in control.

This is what we will see once again. This type of inflation was caused by the COVID lockdowns. China may really have shut down Shanghai to push inflation even higher in the West, seeking regime change in Washington, hoping the inflation will lead to a political blood-bath for the Democrats to get the world back to some normalcy. When inflation is set in motion because of a shortage, like crop failures, raising interest rates will not suddenly make it rain.

The Fed will act out its role because it has no other choice. Its rate hike this week is only playing catch-up with the market. Rates are rising because they are supposed to reflect the inflation rates plus a profit. That’s without the Fed trying to manage the economy. Just look at the rates and ignore the pundits. You will see that the Fed is chasing the market, it is not driving the market. Hence, the Fed is being compelled to raise rates not by its own desire to prevent inflation, but to keep pace with the markets themselves.

The idiots will blame the Fed as inflation rises and blame them for not acting. There is no saving grace for the Fed. The system is collapsing and this is in fact what gives Klaus Schwab power, for they know in Europe that they can no longer borrow money to fund socialism. The answer is to default on all debt and to hide that, they need to make it sound like they are doing this for you — who they care so much about.

Hence, this default will be disguised as relieving you of all your debt when it is the governments who are defaulting, and unable to raise interest rates in Europe. This is also the backdrop to the Repo Crisis and why US banks withdrew from making markets because they did not want to take European debt as collateral, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in.

Pelosi’s delegation went to Ukraine and said the US does not want peace and it will not accept the status quo. They want total victory against Russia and they have UNCONSTITUTIONALLY declared war on Russia and they are pretending they can act unilaterally and as long as the Ukrainian people are on the ground and not American troops, then it is not formally a war that only the people can declare under the constitution. This is all a cover for the Great Default because Keynesian Economics has completely failed. The central banks CAN NOT stop this inflation nor do they control the fiscal spending. Governments are now spending whatever they want because they know the Great Default is coming. This is all part of the Great Reset pushed as the solution by the World Economic Forum.

As we move head-first into 2032, we are looking at the total collapse of not just socialism because of the inability of European governments to continue to borrow as the Fed raises rates, and they cannot, but we are also staring into the eyes of the collapse of Republican forms of government on a global scale.

The REAL Insurrection – The Office of The President, The Executive Branch, Publicly Declared Support For the Political Targeting of the Judicial Branch


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 5, 2022 | Sundance

You might remember that ancient time in history when American civics discussions involved the separation of powers.  Apparently, those days are long gone in the rubble of what was once considered a constitutional republic.  Forget Joe Biden targeting the President of Russia for assassination, what happened today is far more serious in context.

The most powerful political office in the executive branch of government, the office of The President, is now endorsing the political, potentially violent, targeting of the justices within the most powerful office of the judicial branch of power, the justices of The Supreme Court of the United States.

Pause for a moment and let that settle in.

The President is now endorsing the targeting of Supreme Court justices.   The Executive Branch is now publicly targeting the Judicial Branch.

Separate but co-equal?  Again, think about the ramifications here.  WATCH:

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White House Announces Karine Jean-Pierre to Replace Jen Psaki Effective May 13th, Biden Also Reinstalls Media Fixer Anita Dunn


Posted originally on the conservatives tree house onMay 5, 2022 | Sundance

The White House has announced {SEE HERE} that Karine Jean-Pierre will replace Jen Psaki as chief narrative engineer for the Biden regime effective May 13, 2022.  Anita Dunn will return as media fixer.

[White House Press Release] – Today, President Biden announced Karine Jean-Pierre has been promoted to be Assistant to the President and White House Press Secretary. Karine will step into the Press Secretary role replacing Jen Psaki, who will depart from the White House on May 13.

Statement from President Biden: “I am proud to announce that Karine Jean-Pierre will serve as the next White House Press Secretary.

“Karine not only brings the experience, talent and integrity needed for this difficult job, but she will continue to lead the way in communicating about the work of the Biden-Harris Administration on behalf of the American people. Jill and I have known and respected Karine a long time and she will be a strong voice speaking for me and this Administration. (read more)

Additionally, the White House has announced Anita Dunn will return to the JoeBama administration as senior advisor.  Dunn’s specific expertise is using pressure, blackmail and political leverage to control information distribution by media organizations.

The reappearance of Anita Dunn aligns with the expressed intent of the DHS ‘disinformation’ board.  Dunn’s professional political skillset surrounds being a paid media fixer.   She has done this for multiple democrat politicians including Obama.  It was Anita Dunn who used her position in the Biden campaign to demand that media stop allowing Rudy Guiliani to explain the Biden family ‘pay to play’ financial system of selling influence.

Anita Dunn also advised Harvey Weinstein how to remove media stories of his Hollywood rape issues.

Dunn reappearing makes sense, as the U.S. government objective to control information is now in full swing.

JoeBamanomics, 77 Percent of Americans Rate Economy as Poor, 23 Percent Say Good, 63% of Americans Buying Fewer Groceries


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance 

May 4, 2022 | Sundance | 38 Comments

CNN conducted another poll to evaluate voter trends [pdf data here].  The results show a significant drop in American opinion of the economy with 77% rating the current status as “poor,” and 23% saying it’s “good.”  Additionally, 66% of people polled disapprove of the way Biden is handling the economy.

As CNN painfully noted: “Even within the Democratic Party, just 7 in 10 approve of Biden on the economy (71%) and helping the middle class (71%), considerably lower than the 86% of Democrats who approve of his performance overall. Fewer than half of Democrats say Biden has improved the nation’s economic standing (45%), down from 58% in December.” (article link)

In the video discussion, CNN Political Director David Chalian is just gobsmacked, stunned and amazed that 63% of these people are saying they are buying fewer groceries because stuff is just too expensive. WATCH:

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Whenever voters put democrats in charge of the economy, it just sucks.

Full Poll Pdf HERE }