Tag Archives: Cycles and the ECM

Aug 10 2020

China & US War in 3 Months?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Aug 10, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

The former Labor Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has come out in a piece he wrote in Foreign Affairs – Beware the Guns of August—in Asia. Rudd is claiming that the US and China may go to war in three months ahead of the US elections. This is clearly the left trying to claim that Trump will start a war just to win the White House. This seems to be simply part of this entire global quest to usher in socialism and end capitalism. The left simply wants total power. Just look at Melbourne, Australia. This one beautiful city I visited often ios now a prison camp using COVID to strip people of all human rights. The police may now enter anyone’s home without a warrant and they imposed a Curfew 8:00 pm.

This entire issue of rising tensions will not lead to war under Trump. Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops. China is flexing its muscles because the West is committing politic-economic suicide with COVID. China knows the agenda and it is being driven by Bill Gates. Activists have been pushing US institutions to sell all investments in China because they are not yielding to the Climate Change Agenda. This is breaking the economic link that does prevent war.

In addition, China is moving to expand its own domestic consumer economy. It has adopted a different pather than Europe which clings to socialism and Germany is still a mercantilistic economy. China will become the new Financial Capital of the World because it is adopting a domestic view while the Democrats in the USA are trying to follow Europe and subjugate the productive capacity of the nation under Marxist class warfare.

While there is no question that war is coming. However, not simply because Trump needs to win the election. Yes, China has been staging assault practices to invade Taiwan. They have suppressed Hong Kong which was a vital economic link for its economy. The subjugation of Hong Kong shows that China’s economy has matured enough that it no longer needs to funnel business through Hong Kong. Many businesses borrowed in Hong Kong and took the cash directly back to China.

The confrontation cycle between China and Taiwan turned up in 2018 and we should expect this to really escalate into 2023. Nevertheless, underlying models do not look good economically for Taiwan. This entire COVID nonsense has seen as much as a 90% drop in profits for some of the biggest companies in Taiwan.

There is clearly a risk that 2020 could prove to be the major high and a decline into 2024 may unfold. This was a high volatility yearly target and we have witnessed an outside reversal to the upside. This may be the conclusion of this long-standing confrontation. With COVID raging in the West, there will be no economic basis to defend Taiwan from Europe or the USA. China knows the West cannot afford a war after destroying its economy. If I were China, I would wait for these further lockdowns to wipe out the various economics and that will reduce the threat of any retaliation. This will be like Rome expanding after the Greeks fought among themselves dividing their empire.

Macedonia Monetary History | Armstrong Economics

Titus Quinctius Flamininus (c. 228–174BC) was a Roman politician and general who was instrumental in the Roman conquest of Greece. That came 309.6 years from the birth of the Roman Republic. The fall of Greece to Rome came about 224 years from the peak of Greece prior to its conquest by Macedonia. Europe peaked really with the French Revolution. That came 224 years before the peak in government confidence which was 2015.75. From there onward, we have has not just BREXIT, but the election of Trump and the collapse in the basic civility within politics.

The Cycle of War has been edited and is off to the printer. The full scope of what we face has been provided in that book.

Aug 7 2020

Something is Wrong


Blog/Basic Concepts

Posted Aug 7, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: At the WEC in Orlando, you said something was wrong. Was the computer picking up this event of a crash being contrived?

JF

ANSWER: The computer clearly was picking something beginning in August 2019, which corresponded to the start of the Repo Crisis and the reaction high in the Russel 2000. Yes, I warned that there would be a crash with the turn in the Economic Confidence Model in January 2020. A divergence was clearly unfolding and has been very dramatic. The failure of the Dow and Russel 2000 to rally compared to the NASDAQ reflected a Paradigm Shift, which also took place during the Great Depression.

This is by no means a normal market, which is why the fundamental analysis makes no sense. The stock market rises while the economy declines. However, it is only selected segments of the economy, which is why there is such a disconnect between indexes and reality.

Jul 27 2020

The Fall of the United Nations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A

Re-Posted Jul 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Martin, The UN Charter was formed 26 June 1945 86 years will take it to June 2031. Does the UN Agenda 2030 coincide with a collapse of it’s forced agenda?
J
ANSWER: According to our models, the United Nations, as we know it, will come to an end by 2031 following the old League of Nations. They have made a strategic play in an attempt to become the world government by using both this virus and climate change, continually calling for governments to submit to their direction. Our model clearly shows that Bill Gates and Soros will also fail. They have unleashed the destruction of Western Society, and this social distancing is precisely the opposite of what encourages the formation of civilization. What lies ahead will be the topic of a special report after the elections laying out the various paths that we face going into the future.
PS: We have finished the editing process on “The Cycle of War,” and it is going to print shortly.
Jul 22 2020

Was Genoa the Best form of Government?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Jul 22, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Genoa 1481

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

Thank you for your work.
It is not anymore about the economy but about surviving through the mayhem that is on the horizon.
Thank you for doing your part in sharing what you know, for being bold and for
not bending.
I was taught to go after ” independent thinking” and I have followed you for years because of that even though we have different political views.
I appreciate and listen to you because you are an independent thinker.

Send you a hug
Dr. FB from, Spain.

REPLY: Thank you. I believe you must question what is happening and you should NEVER presume the direction or outcome. Some people do not understand my position politically. I am neither Democrat nor Republican. There are aspects I agree and disagree with both. I understand the thinking of what went into the construction of the U.S. Constitution and the mistake the Founding Fathers made — they failed to consider human nature.

Much of the structure was based upon their misunderstanding of the Roman Republican era v Roman Imperial era. They presumed that monarchy was bad and ASSUMED that a Republic was better. They wrongly took the fake news of the day put out by Cicero, painting Julius Caesar as evil, when it was the Optimates led by Cato who were corrupt. Their misunderstanding of history and the true events of the time led even to the naming of the Cato Institute as if he really stood for the people.

The best form of government I have ever encountered was that of the Italian city of Genoa from which Christopher Columbus came. The city was ruled by a Doge (president), who was a member of one of the richest families. This position rotated among the families, but its duration was that of the old Roman Dictator who would be appointed for one year. BECAUSE the position rotated, no Doge would ever impose a draconian law since he and his family would be subjected to it the next year. There was no class warfare because they ran Genoa like a corporation, competing against Florence and Venice, and thus EVERYONE benefited.

This is also why I tend to trust Trump more than any other career politician of either party because he will return to the private sector. A career politician is simply taken care of for life and has nothing to return to. We are the lower class scum to be exploited and disrespected.

 

My bottom-line political philosophy is that the “We the People” should be in charge directly — not career politicians, EVER!. You have your bureaucrats who run the government who are accountable to the people directly. I do not support people like Soros or Bill Gates using their money to take over huge swaths of government. The office of Inspector General is only a symbolic gesture to the old Roman Tribunus plebis, tribune of the people, who could bring charges against any government official. That power should be restored. I do not support “Republics” nor career politicians that can be bought and paid for.