Do Tall Buildings Signal a Recession or Depression?


Madison Square Garden was constructed in New York City and was opened on September 29, 1891. The 304-foot (92.66 m) building had been completed a year earlier and was the second-tallest in New York City, just in time for the Panic of 1893. It was named after James Madison, the fourth president of the United States. The first garden, leased to P. T. Barnum, had no roof and was inconvenient to use during winter.

It was demolished after 11 years and a new Madison Square Garden was designed by noted architect Stanford White. It was constructed by a syndicate which included J. P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, P. T. Barnum, Darius Mills, James Stillman, and W. W. Astor. The third version began construction in 1925 after it was demolished and that lasted until 1968. The fourth version began construction in 1968 and was completed in 1969. That too was timed with the Panic of 1968.

The Flatiron Building marked the Panic of 1903. This was a triangular 22-story building that became the landmark building at the time. Construction was completed in 1902, and it was one of the tallest buildings in the city at 20 floors high. For the Panic of 1907, it was the Singer Tower on Broadway. With 47 stories, it was the tallest building in the world from 1908-1909.

There is the well-known story of how the Empire State Building, which was 102 stories, became the symbol of the Great Depression in the 1930s. The design for the Empire State Building was changed fifteen times to make it the world’s tallest building as a symbol of hope during the Great Depression. Construction began on March 17, 1930, and the building opened thirteen and a half months afterward on May 1, 1931. Despite the publicity surrounding the building’s construction, its owners failed to make a profit until the early 1950s.

As you can see from the chart above, after the 45% correction in the Dow, the market began to bounce. The project of the Empire State Building went ahead. Many assumed that the market was recovering and new highs would come again. Little did they know that most of Europe, South America, and Asia permanently defaulted on their debts in 1931.

The original World Trade Center destroyed in 2001 was a large complex of seven buildings in the Financial District of Lower Manhattan. It opened on April 4, 1973. This became the symbol of the 1974 Crash and the beginning of Stagflation. Likewise, the Aon Center in Los Angeles opened in 1973 which also marked a peak in the economy.

The 1987 Crash was marked by One Liberty Place in Philadelphia, and then the SEC later destroyed Drexel Burnham with Michael Milkin because of their competition with New York City. The SEC never has destroyed any firm in New York City as they have done in Philadelphia and Chicago.

Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur became the symbol of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and the 1998 Crash due to Long-Term Capital Management. That was the mass liquidity crisis from the emerging market collapsed that began in Russia.

In New York City, construction began on April 27, 2006, of the new One World Trade Center just in time for the Panic of 2007. It did not open until November 3, 2014.

The  Burj Khalifa, known as the Burj Dubai, also became the symbol of the 2007-2009 crash.

Like the wise tale that markets go up with women’s skirts and fall when then drop back to their ankles (i.e. Roaring 20s), the competition to create skyscrapers and always build the biggest in the world has also been an interesting correlation to major crashes in the world economy. The Jeddah Tower(Arabic: برج جدة‎), also known as the Mile-High Tower, was to begin construction in 2008. It was put on hold. This promised to be the tallest building in the entire world. It appears that plans for such buildings coincide with the boom days. All work was paused with the tower about one-third completed due to labor issues with a contractor following the 2017–19 Saudi Arabian purge. This too seems to be the symbol of this correction and the crisis in the Middle East.

Iran & War


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for Iran back in 2012 has been correct. It picked 2016 which in January the International economic sanctions on Iran were lifted after UN said it was satisfied with progress on fulfilling the nuclear agreement. President Rouhani then embarked on the first European state visit of an Iranian president for 16 years. But that same month is when the serious rift in relations took place after Saudi Arabia executed a leading Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. During May 2017,  Hassan Rouhani won re-election as president.= and by June that is when there was a co-ordinated attack on parliament and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini. That is when the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. That sparked major protests in December 2017 over economic grievances. The next year in 2018, President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran in turn warned that it will begin increasing its uranium enrichment capacity if the deal collapses as a result of the US move.

I have followed your report and it has been truly remarkable for someone that is covering the entire world. My question is now, your array showed the 2016 turning point which was amazing, but it also showed 2020. There are increasing tensions once again. Do you have an update on this forecast?

Thank you

ABSR

ANSWER: There is a rising tide in Iran toward a confrontation. In February 2020, the hardliners scored big wins in parliamentary elections, but this was with a record low turnout of only 42.6% while any moderate would-be candidates were barred from running for not meeting strict eligibility criteria.

Back in 2013, the State Department blew everyone away after admitting that they officially and intentionally deleted several minutes of video footage from a 2013 press briefing to mislead the press over the Iranian nuclear deal under the Obama Administration. Then in 2o16, Iran also tried to sell oil in euros in a futile attempt to end oil’s link to the dollar. They clearly failed to understand this was not a SERIOUS blow to the USA, but in fact, they took on the currency risk of the euro and lost.

It appears that 2020 is the low for oil and we should see tension rise sharply with Iran which will help oil into 2024.

Socrates & the Whole


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong – as a subscriber to Socrates, I find it remarkable how prescient its analyses have been. (Wish I were a better trader to benefit more financially! But that’s another story – live & learn. At least Socrates has kept me out of trouble, so far.)

My observation/question is, now that Vermont has gone full-on Politburo, directing retailers to “CEASE IN-PERSON SALES OF NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS”:  I wonder if the timeline for the dissolution of the Union has accelerated? When Government decides what is essential, we’re all in trouble.

Thank you again for your work.
N.A.

REPLY: Yes, Socrates has done something that no human could have ever foreseen. Even its forecast that unemployment would be like a slingshot I questioned myself since that has never taken place in history. Only something that can analyze and do so without passion, bias, or conflicts of interest would survive such an event. Not even during the Great Depression did we see unemployment rise so fast.

This has NOT been about merely forecast the collapse of the stock market. This is far greater than any single market forecast. If you cannot see the whole, you will never understand what is taking place within a single market.

Just so everyone understands, Socrates is not even in one location. It is monitoring the world from multiple locations around the globe to prevent it from being blocked at least by a single governmen

Manipulating the World Economy Update


The books we listed on eBay are delayed in being mailed out because they are being printed in Pennsylvania. Our printer is located there but actually does print for hospitals so he is designated essential. So the problem was not the printing. The problem became that we cannot hire some temp workers up there to mail out the books. So they will be delayed probably for another week until the chaos clears and the governor of Pennsylvania comes to his senses. I have been told that some are selling the Second Edition on eBay. I presume they are not in Pennsylvania.

We are ordering more books since they keep selling out. I support this is a sign of the time – sheer chaos.

 

Proposal for a One World Government Being Floated


The former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has urged world leaders to create a temporary form of global government to tackle the twin medical and economic crises caused by the Coronavirus. He is no fool. He knows once there is the formation of anything pretended to be “temporary” it exists forever. Why are these people so intent upon trashing our freedoms and converting the world into an authoritarian paradise for them?

Keynesian Economics is collapsing. They will all be thrown out on the street if not dragged out and hanged when hoards of people who counted on these social programs realize they have been played for fools.

Since the coronavirus model of Neil Ferguson has been shown to be wrong, they will NEVERrelinquish the emergency powers that have seized already. When Ferguson appeared before the British Parliament, they never once criticized him and simply said thank you for your efforts. Why is there no recognition of this?

The stay-at-home should be immediately revoked and businesses should be restored. The fact that this is NOT being done has shown precisely what I was getting from my sources that this was (1) bogus, and (2) there were elites who sold in January everything, including bonds. This is the first collapse where the flight to quality was NOT to bonds, but to cash.

As they say, this ain’t over until the fat lady sings. This is a coup against our freedom because socialism is on the verge of collapse. Yet in Asia, they are trying to resume to normal ASAP unlike what we see in Europe in particular.

 

Sorting the Nonsense & Prejudices from the Truth of Reality


COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong; I want to say thank you so much. I am not sure you are even aware of how right you have been during this entire debacle and I am not referring to just your forecast of the decline in the stock market which saved my future. While everyone was regurgitating the worst scenarios and how this disease was going to kill so many you stood your ground against the world. The conspiracy theories were this was a biological weapon, but you said no. Some claimed the government was hiding how bad it would get and others were predicting we would be segregated into internment camps. You alone said these were exaggerated and that your models showed that the real disease would be in 2022 not now. I read even __ which gathers all the newsletters but interestingly avoids you because you are different and are not a gold bug that they only quote and this doomsday prophecy we were all going to die from a disease. They only aided the panic and never once would report what you had to say proving they too are just fake news.

Your computer has proven to be reliable, dispassionate, and the only such model that has ever been correct on a consistent basis. You deserve more than the Nobel Prize because I question if that is even prestigious enough. They hand it out to like candy and then their accomplishment proves to be fake like Black and Scholes or just political Obama getting the peace prize when he wanted to invade Syria.

The contribution to humanity you try so hard to accomplish is having an impact.

Thank you so much. I cannot express how much of a difference you have made during this entire crisis.

BH

COMMENT #2: Hi Marty
thanks for keeping us informed to whats really happening in the world. You are the only person I actually read and listen to concerning this sham.
You said that the Uk Government has downgraded the threat of the virus. That hasn’t been announced in the UK or in Scotland where I am. Any idea why they are still keeping people in lock down when they know this isnt dangerous at all.
All the best to you
maria

COMMENT #3: Hi Martin, I wanted to share something: this is not socialism coming. It is totalitarianism. What we have had so far is not Capitalism, it’s Cartelism. This is now a bloodless international coup taking place to centralize all power, to reduce the world’s masses to total utter dependency on the global elite technocrats, with a militarized police state protecting the elites from civil unrest. Small businesses are NEVER coming back. Mark my words.
Thank you for all your work!
SP

COMMENT #4 HI Marty
I was aware of the virus downgrade report on the UK Govt health website. It’s been there for about a week. And, if you do a search, there is …… s i l e n c e …. [sound of crickets chirping]….. No major media outlet has reported it.
An email to the BBC, politely asking where they have reported it, remains unanswered.
Power grab coup – all govts being sat on from above.
JF – Liverpool, UK

REPLY: Thank you. I hope one day we can show the world there is a better way to manage our economy instead of trying to manipulate it for political gain. It is interesting why governments are not reversing themselves in like of the bogus studies. This smells like indeed a convenient opportunity for power. Just can’t hand it back now.

Life is a quest for knowledge. When there is nothing left to explore, it is time to die. Being an international adviser and hedge fund manager, I had a front-row seat in the world economy. I have been taught by my clients. I observed that the sum of the whole was indeed made up of the parts. Tracking the movement of money for investment flows showed the ebb and flow of global confidence. While others created indexed based on trade, like the dollar index, I found such presumptions ludicrous. Trade is such a small portion of capital flows that such biases cloud our judgment and blinds us to the trend.

In studying history I came to realize that there was a cycle to innovation as well. I agreed with Schumpeter‘s view of Creative Destruction. I set out to construct a model that was free to explore the world and to return like a dog in a game of go fetch. It proved to me it was making some profound discoveries that people are too prejudiced to ever see.

I appeared with Walter Bressert I believe in 1982 or 1983 on Financial News Network in California which began in 1981 and became CNBC in 1991. I gave the forecast on the British pound that it would fall from $240 to par by 1985. The host turned to Walt and asked about that outrageous forecast. Walt said he would never bet against my computer.

I had to develop speech capability back then just to be able to communicate because it was making what I thought were impossible forecasts. I worked with Dragon Systems in the ’80s when the speech was all hardware. I needed to be able to inquire how it came up with such a forecast as it did on the British pound. For it has also projected that the politics would flip (i.e. Margaret Thatcher) and that the British economy would invert and align more with the USA against continental Europe. That prediction seemed to be really off-the-wall. I inquired: why?

Socrates showed a correlation with the discovery of North Sea Oil. In 1970, British Petroleum made its first discovery of commercial oil in the large Forties Field, although oil was not produced until 1976. By 1974, it was apparent that North Sea oil could provide a massive source of energy, and also revenue. The computer picked up the capital flows and determined that the British economy would align with the United States as it was becoming a commodity-linked economy.

The success of Socrates is entirely based upon the fact that it is NOT dependent upon human assumptions for as this crisis has proven, a faulty assumption produces serious mistakes coming out – Garbage in – Garbage out. You cannot create a model that starts with a human presumption or bias. Create a model that is hard-wired that assumes interest rates up and the stock will crash will never work. That is not a mode, it is a flawed program that just repeats human mistakes and prejudices.

Real Artificial Intelligence is not an expert system where it simply looks up human conclusions. So many pretend to have AI but all they do is simply look up predetermined conclusions. True AI must explore and reason for itself. Only then can we rely upon such computer programs.

I have never seen any Neural Network accomplish actually work nor any Expert System which is just looking up the answers in a list created by humans. The Neural Network simply tried to mimic the construction of the human brain and assumes that if you throw in enough data it will learn. Even IBM’s Watson failed. Socrates is the ONLY fully functioning Artificial Intelligence system in the world that is monitoring the entire global economy and all its components – PERIOD!

Money cannot buy everything in life. I turned down $500 million for Socrates where it would have just provided analysis for a single user. I rejected the request of the CIA to build a version for the US government. I offered to run any study they asked and was told they “had to own it.”

I do not need money. I suppose because I have had that luxury in life of having a talent to be a trader it has allowed me to be independent. Sure there are people who hate my guts because they cling to old theories like the Austrian-School of Economics and refuse to review the fact that the world economy is not determined by the simple Quantity Theory of Money (QTM). That is what Keynesian Economics is based on and how central banks operate.

This entire QTM is just a fool’s game for they just ignore the fact that China, Japan, and Germany all rose without gold. Under their theory, Russia should be the leading world economy having gold, silver, diamonds, and energy. Their minds are closed and they would persecute anyone who disagreed just as those who rejected the idea that the earth was not flat or that the Wright Brothers could fly even after they were doing it for 2 years preferring to call them frauds.  Heinrich Schliemann who discovered Troy, Mycenae and many other places mentioned in Homer they also called a fraud because he proved they too were wrong. The academics also declared Historia Augusta to be fake because it mentioned Roman emperors they never heard of during the 3rd century. When two gold coins were discovered in Egypt of Saturninus, the book they called a fraud showed it was the academics who were wrong again just as we have witnessed with the virus.

So I believe I am in good company.

The dark side of humanity is the prejudices we harbor. We have to surrender that to the universe and be willing to follow the logic and the facts. Until then, humans are incapable of emotionally evolving. This is why history repeats because the passions of humankind never change through the centuries. Those who are the naysayers will cling to their prejudices and they would love to burn me at the stake as they did to Bruno. I really do not care because I know they will leave nothing behind but the obstruction of knowledge and are incapable of ever having an original thought.

The WEC & Networking


COMMENT #1: Martin attending the WEC for 4 years now has been the greatest PHD program, in reality, one could ever get.  And the most important thing you have taught me is, “We are all connected.”  It’s no accident that the trees in the fall look like a frozen lightning bolt, our veins, the pattern of a river from the sky and also your lungs.

And something you were doing that I didn’t understand till this crisis started.  Networking.  I have made many friends at these conferences and we have stayed in touch…But once this crisis started I now have a team and I mean team of people reaching out form around the world contacting me giving info, explaining things I don’t understand and more than a trade, Looking out for my feature.  I am closer to these people that many families and lifetime friends.

This, as you have described is turning out to be one big, poorly written story in which that masses have take hook line and sinker.  Repeat, Repeat, Repeat the lie.
This conditioning was what common core was all about and there are so many agendas being ticked off the Marxist box it’s frightening.  From forced vaccination to Robotics.  My wife works for a defense company. And now that an older man has come down with the virus the question becomes, Do we shut down the office every time someone gets a virus.

With that as the background, If this is so dangerous, Why is Governor Cuomo bringing his Daughter, a non Government, non-essential to work.

And the panicked mayor goes to the gym?

P.S. You are more than a blessing and I went to you thinking I’d understand the Economy better and have left learning how to be a better human.

Thank you.

AW

COMMENT #2: I was skeptical about your events. I met someone who attended. He said you do not try to raise money or solicit something. I attended your Orlando WEC last year. You have saved my financial life. I heard at the event people saying you spend $750,000 just on the food for everyone. I wanted to say thank you from the bottom of my heart.

DK

REPLY: Yes, the WEC events have become a tradition. The networking is tremendous. It is very gratifying to see how everyone connects and develops friends internationally. If you throw a wedding for your child, you know the cost is outrageous. Not that is supplying just one dinner. We have to provide three meals a day and then the cocktail party. The drinks alone cost usually between $75,000 to $100,000. They are certainly not boxed lunch affairs.

It was very disappointing that we had to can the WEC in Shanghai. So many people from the West wanted to meet the like-minded in China. We still have our fingers cross for Europe, but declaring emergency power for one year in Germany makes me wonder.

I did TV show in Germany and there was a girl dress in jeans. I assumed she was just part of the film crew but she was just sitting listening to me. To get into this facility required clearance. I had to bring my passport to prove I was the person invited. When I finished, this girl got up and quickly left. I saw her rush out and jumped on a motorbike and sped off. She was there to monitor what I was saying.

I think Orlando will be OK. Just not sure about Europe yet if this is a major power-grab.

Why the Dow is Different From S&P 500 & NASDAQ


QUESTION: Hello,
I have been following you for several years and being retired your emails along with my coffee are a great way to start the day. I want to stay limber and laser focused on one index. I chose the S&P because of the volume; both ETF and options.
I know a rising tide lifts all boats; but you seem to be all about the DOW. Of the two (or three IWM); any comments about which one(s) are more for trading than investing?
Thank you again
CS

ANSWER: Socrates covers over 1,000 markets daily. The Dow is a reflection of the big money and international capital flows. The S&P 500 is more domestic oriented and used among institutions and fund managers, whereas the NASDAQ has more of a tendency to be retail. On the rally up from 2009, the Dow led. Note that at the peak here in 2020, the Dow peaked first, then the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ made new highs into February taking the lead from the Dow. That was the kiss of death and confirmation that a sharp correction was then possible.

Is Anthony Fauci the Destroyer of Worlds?


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

Thank you very much for your dedication and hard-work educating those people that are willing to listen. Thank you for being here with us during these turbulent times and being that beacon of light we need so desperately.

When do you foresee this chaos to end? People are afraid and are acting really crazy, wearing masks, latex gloves and keeping a distance between each other as though everyone has leprosy. Stores like Trader Joe’s are regulating shoppers to a minimum of 30 people, while a huge line forms outside of their store. When shopping, the workers all have latex gloves, and continuously use antibiotic soap. We cannot even stand in front of a register nor hand the cashier money. They expect you to place your bills on the counter and slide it to them. Then they throw the recipe in your grocery bags.  The world has gone mad! Ohio has implemented shelter in place (Stay Home) order to combat COVID-19 going into effect Monday at 11:59 pm and scheduled to last until April 6.

Once again, stay healthy and safe and thank you so much for all that you do,

Sincerely,

K

ANSWER: The computer has been projecting the two target weeks of March 23rd and April 6th since the start of the year. I believe we then see is the dust settles. But Anthony Fauci will go down in history as the Destroyer of Worlds. I have never in my long career ever witnessed such absurdity as this man has created. Yes, it is true if we all stayed at home we can beat the common cold.  For this guy to only look at his field and say that is the solution is beyond comprehension. He is clearly a LINEAR THINKER and the press has been a coconspirator because they have ONLY been interested in selling advertising by hyping this to insane levels but they are foolishly destroying the very people who advertise. The medical profession which just follows orders is unknowingly losing their pension money. Some states may even use this to justify seizure private pensions for the people’s own good.

I have spoken to a fairly large company that is still not in what we would classify as “big business” and the solution that they have come to is they will stop paying bills to preserve cash. Others have said where they had been looking at reducing high paying jobs easing them out over the next year, they have brought that forward and are using this crisis as the excuse. These decrees that small business must shut down, has anybody bothered to decree that their rents must also be suspended?

Anthony Fauci has created a Great Depression and unemployment will jump from the lowest since the 1960s and may retest the Great Depression high of 20%. There was a forecast that unemployment would retest the lows going into 2019 and then rise into the 2023 period where it could be a slingshot up to retest the Great Depression highs. It has always been my job to just report what the computer projects. Some people try to challenge me on a personal level. You cannot fight the message, so attack the messenger. I have said every time that I second guess the models, I am the one who is wrong. This was one such forecast I was uncertain about. I could not see fundamentally how the economy could collapse so fast. But low and behold, fate has given us Anthony Fauci which I believe will have destroyed more businesses and wiped out more jobs than any economic event historically surpassing the Great Depression and war.

  • The US Congress is still debating its relief bill. They have no idea what is unfolding.
  • Illiquidity is exploding and hedge funds puke their guts out all over the street. Even some bond funds in Europe and Sweden, as well as Denmark, have suspended all redemptions.
  • The panic to the US dollar has been massive. This will only undermine emerging market debt. The Fed can try to inject dollars, but this will have no effect since the demand far exceeds the supply.
  • The fear factor the medical industry has created over Covid19 is unbelievable where 13% of Americans think they are infected. There is now little doubt that this fear factor has overwhelmed the markets and the economy. Trump has delegated the response to the States, which may be a mistake. Some states are overreacting and many have started to shut down their economies ordering people to stay home into the week of April 6th. Universities have switched to online and many may have just closed for the year. German chancellor Angela Merkel is in quarantine as in US Senator Rand Paul. A member of the Vice President’s team tested positive but not the Vice President.
  • There still remains the risk that Europe may close its financial markets as they did in World War I. There remains also the risk that they will declare a BANK HOLIDAY and they are still looking at using the crisis to cancel all paper currency.

I do not see where Fauci’s recommendations have been warranted. This may be a little more aggressive than the flu, but we are still not talking about it reaching an epidemic. It has already subsided in China and South Korea. My discussions with medical doctors in Italy suggest that nobody has died from this virus alone. They have some precondition and then the complications lead to death when severe. This is not the Black Plague

I was told – Read your Own Book!


I had a very interesting conversation about what appears to be a grab for power with someone high up. I was told: Read tour own book! I concluded in the Manipulating the World Economy that the central banks lost all power and the solution would require political action and reform. The very issues I made clear would need to change have just changed – Germany surrenders austerity. However, I was pessimistic that such reform would be possible because of the political polarization. The answer appears to be creating a James Bond plot to save the world.

There are numerous political people who sold their stocks on insider information in the USA and Europe. I have detailed information about very high-level elites in Europe who were tipped off as well it appears for they also sold on the ECM turning point and it was not because they followed the ECM. It is curious that the sales took place at the ECM +- 2 days. They were not our clients. This does make me wonder if someone else used the ECM to target when to bring this operation into play.

We still have people justifying these powers arguing the virus will take off exponentially as if we will all die. It is this very type of scare-mongering which is providing the cover for the greatest political power grab in human history. This comes directly from the political playbook that has been around for thousands of years. The flight to quality is simply cash. Even the bonds had fallen as well as gold. This is the most drastic flight to quality ever. Normally, sell stocks run to bonds. This time they are liquidating everything.