Is this Unfolding Faster than Expected?


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have been targeting 2021 into 2022 as a critical time. Do you think this is unfolding faster than expected, or is this yet another sucker rally to get people all trapped in again on a bounce and then slaughter them? I find it curious how people get so bullish at every high and it smells that way now. What do you see in the near-term? I saw Socrates traded the rally in gold very good, but the ratio just shifted and it did not make a new high. It looks like weakness is coming back. All these people clamoring that they missed the NASDAQ rally look like they will be separated from their money really soon. What do you think?

FP

ANSWER: You have to subscribe to Socrates for each particular market. I do not have the time to comment on every single market and you cannot make a comment of the Dow and apply to another index any more than gold applies to silver or platinum. They are all different. Socrates is there for a reason. It is objective without bias and is not written by any person – it is totally computer generated which is a good thing in times like this. We all have our prejudices that can get in the way of objectivity. That is why people sell the low and buy highs.

We definitely have to be careful here for it is true that only fools rush in where wise men dare not tread. With all the chaos in the world, these people who think they missed everything with the NASDAQ rally merely illustrates how naive they are to even think the market can rally from here with no problems because some states are opening up. They will simply become the fuel for the moves ahead.

 

Those are the people who inevitably buy the high because they get so caught up always at the top. The pattern which seems to get the emotions flowing the most is always the Knee-Jerk Reaction before the high. This is often the strongest type of move just before the high which sucks them all in at the top thinking this is it and here we go. They want to pretend to be investors, but then they want to really trade every move.

When we look at the German DAX, there we have elected ALL FOUR Monthly Bearish Reversals from the February high but we also elected a Quarterly Bearish Reversal at the end of March. This is a clear warning that we have a very serious shift in the trend moving forward into 2022. We have not elected any Quarterly Bearish Reversal in the Dow, there is obviously a major shift in trend within the US v externally even with the lockdown.

We are NOT ahead of schedule. June remains a Directional Change and July is the next key target. We then have the 2020 elections coming and that will have a major impact upon the confidence behind the dollar into 2022.

Nobody is capable of forecasting this type of market from a gut perspective. This is the entire reason you need to look at Socrates per market and not assume anything. This is something that cannot be judged even fundamentally because there are so many things changing only a fool will assume they can see the future reducing everything to a single cause and effect.

So far, there is nothing that suggests the trend has accelerated. The swings are still within historical movements. The NASDAQ is different for its low was 2002 not 2009. Obviously, you cannot apply the same outlook to the NASDAQ as you see in the S&P500 or the Dow. To each its own, as they say.

We are creating a new index with 30 stocks to reflect the Paradigm Equity Shift. We are working on a special report to cover this event since it is the first time it has taken place since the 1930s.

Buffett Sold All Airlines in Advance


 

The US Share Market Behind the Scenes


October WEC 2019

QUESTION: I noticed going over your blogs that Socrates picked up the divergence between the Nasdaq and the other indexes you commented on before the crash began. I understand you do not have the time to comment on every market and it is best to follow what Socrates writes. But you said at the conference this was unusual and you said it would be a crash that was a combination of 1998 and 2008. Something just does not smell right with the markets as you commented before. Do you have any additional insight as to what is unfolding?

GPK

At this time, there is an all-out war in the financial markets with the Climate Change Activists trying to force major funds to divest of anything that produces CO2. This is undoubtedly a deliberate crash that has been orchestrated with respect to the magnitude of the decline – not when. The computer was picking up these subtle changes beginning last August 2019. As I have said many times, it cannot tell me the person, it can only show the machinations behind the scenes.

Hong Kong Peg to Crack in June?


China’s Communist Party will impose a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong during the annual meeting of its top political body, criminalizing “foreign interference” along with secessionist activities and subversion of state power. This is directed at the protests for independence. It is a very dramatic and bold move that unquestionably undermines Hong Kong’s autonomy. This will threaten Hong Kong as a global financial hub and is already impacting the HK$ peg which may break in June.

This has been a 23-year run under the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed the territory to enjoy a level of autonomy. That is coming to an end. Hong Kong’s political freedoms have been eroding, but now Beijing signaled that the national security law will be a new tool that allows it to directly tackle the political dissent that erupted on Hong Kong’s streets last year.

Hong Kong has been able to hang on thanks to the US Federal Reserve cutting rates. While this has eased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar in the midst of this deepening political crisis intermixed with the Coronavirus Pandemic everyone is using for political gains globally, the clock is ticking on the peg.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is clearly running out of options. Under this new threat from the political changes, the question is how long its currency can hold the line appears shorter by the Day. For the past 37 years, the city has run a managed peg, tying the Hong Kong currency to the US dollar after a long stint being tied to the British pound. Right now, the greenback trades in a narrow band between HK$7.75-7.85.

Traditionally, when a nation pegs its currency to another, then the differences in market interest rates should be marginal at best. However, this interest rate spread between the greenback and the Hong Kong market rates is warning that the economic differences are surfacing. The demand for the Hong Kong dollar is shifting, and this brings the currency in short supply given the economic contraction due to the virus. Add this new political shift and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will have little choice but to increase the supply of Hong Kong dollars in an effort to support the economy and try to prevent interest rates from rise in the face of a new political risk.

The pressure to crack the peg will begin in June.

Socrates & the Paradigm Equity Shift


QUESTION: Marty; Thank you so much for Socrates and the private blog. Most analysts only focus on price. Very few understand time. I get it how you try to keep that on the private blog for Gates and crew seem to be using your timing to have known when to act. I sure hope you are right that Gates may have reached the peak of his career in April.

It is fascinating how Socrates has been very bullish electing bullish reversal after reversal in the Nasdaq but not the Dow and S&P500. Your analysis of this paradigm shift is very enlightening. It takes someone with a historical understanding to even see this right before your eyes. Thank you again.

When will you have your indexes available? Soon I hope?

HW

ANSWER: Yes. We are working on that because this is part of the incredible paradigm equity shift in how markets are functioning. The last time this took place was the 1930s. It is on top of the whole capital flow issue internationally. This is a serious paradigm equity shift with the share markets that must be understood moving forward. This is a very profound change in the structure of the market that is so critical to grasp in order to invest properly into the years ahead.

We are putting this all together in a global share market report that will include more than just the US. These are very trying times.

How Can Socrates Forecast Thing Well in Advance?


QUESTION: Martin –
In the video link you see the blank answer by former Fed Chairman Bernanke when asked, in a 60 Minutes interview, as to where he saw unemployment going/peaking in the last crisis of 2008 (at minute 3:27). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKx1BZd9bjQ
How do you best explain Socrates being able to pick up so far in advance, the heights that unemployment would reach in this crisis; rivaling or exceeding that of the Great Depression, even with this seemingly contrived “virus” being such a curve ball, out of left field?
I’ve been to a David Copperfield magic show before, but this latest call by Socrates beats any illusion I can recall from his show.
T

ANSWER: It is very difficult to Explain. Everything is connected. I learned with the Cycle of War that the computer was picking up the subtle movements of capital well in advance. It becomes clear that if you were going to start a war, you move your money in advance. This is what these people have been doing. I believe it began last summer with the sudden collapse in confidence in Europe. We ended up with the REPO Crisis hitting in September and they tried to excuse it as a freak event. But Socrates was correctly forecast that as well. At the May Rome World Economic Conference, I put up this slide as to the key issues to pay attention to – the liquidity crisis which manifested into the REPO Crisis because banks were no longer trusting banks.

You will also notice on that slide #3 the Political Chaos and the Rise of Authoritarianism. The computer is monitoring absolutely everything. You cannot hide from Socrates. My job is only to relay what it is showing. This forecast is not me personally. Major institutions and government call on me for they know it is the computer – not me personally. No human can possibly analyze global trends with such proficient skills.

I know it is hard for some to accept because everyone is used to analysts claiming they called this or that. Most of these people make one lucky call and then lose their shirt thereafter. NOBODY can be trusted with forecasting from a gut perspective. You can get lucky once, but not consistently.

I had inside info that there were elites who knew there would be a virus “coming” and sold out. That was my connection. Personally, I questioned that forecast of how could unemployment rise so fast when even in the Great Depression it took 3 years to reach 25%. NEVER in my wildest dreams would I have personally been able to forecast that unemployment would reach Great Depression levels in a matter of weeks. We cannot make such forecasts in reality as a human being. Anyone who claims they did is a fraud or it was some lucky guess. This has NEVER taken place in history.

Socrates was picking up everything. It works out the trend from these subtle movements. This is why I had stated from the outset this was FAKE, it was manipulated, and their claims this virus would last for 18 months was a fraud. We have every disease in the system and there is NO precedent whatsoever for any virus do that. I reported the timing was for the peak would be the week of April 6th. Again, that was no some personal guess. I reported how long SAR lasted. There was absolutely ZERO support for this virus extending to 18 months. That was an outright FRAUD and it was without any scientific support.

All I can say is that the trend can be determined by Socrates because like war, instead of moving your money ahead of an invasion, this time they were doing that ahead of the revelation that they would use this virus as a psychological tool to shut down the world economy for Climate Change but use the scare tactic of the virus to create a global lockdown.

2032 – How Do We Approach Uncharted Waters?


QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong
Thanks for your efforts. you are truly amazing!
You have said that we should expect inflation to increase due to decreased supply. How should we prepare for that?
I do not have the stomach for investing in commodities futures. However, investing in the shares of commodities producing companies is something that I can handle. Does Socrates have anything to say to me about the best way to prepare for this new inflationary cycle?
Respectfully,
J

ANSWER: We have Socrates running studies on every individual company looking to assemble a group for this wave that should be the best of the lot. It really takes something like this because human opinion is not going to be worth much when we are heading into unprecedented waters where charts have never gone before.

Make sure you buy one year’s worth of food in cans. If you have the space to do vertical farming, it might come in handy in the years ahead.

Socrates & the Ability to Forecast the Whole


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I find it intellectually dishonest why the mainstream media refuses to cover your forecasts and others plagiarize you when Socrates has been the biggest breakthrough perhaps in human history. I attended the Orlando WEC in 2019 and your forecasts on gold and the stock market were brilliant. When it came to this virus, you held your ground against all others and said this was not a biological weapon, and on March 9, you forecast the virus would top out in April and subside.

There is nothing out there and certainly, nobody has been able to forecast the world no less a single market. Even your letters to the President have an impact around the world. The Youtube post on that has shown your passion to help society.

My God man, you have been a voice in the wilderness we all should be promoting.

God bless;

PF

REPLY: Thank you. As they say, a prophet is never accepted in his own time or his own country. I am not a prophet, just a programmer who had a vision and was trained by my international client base to see the world through everyone’s eyes. Perhaps the day will come after 2032 when I am gone and there is no more messenger to attack and hate they will at last look at the message. Of course, that does not help society right now.

Download: Armstrong Petition for Rehearing

On May 1st, the Supreme Court will decide if they will hear my case against the government. It is such a long-shot, but if they did, there might appear a crack in the brick wall that would allow some light perhaps to shine in on the corruption that has seized the government in New York which is far deeper than the swamp mentioned by Trump. It is an ocean. If you want to help, write letters to the Supreme Court in support of granting a hearing. That is the only way to perhaps make a move in the opposite direction and push back just for once.

China – Sanctions & War


QUESTION: Marty; Now Lindsey Grahm is calling for sanction against China. This is starting to seem like the war drums are beating. What do you think?

WH

ANSWER: I am thoroughly disgusted with this entire pandemic nonsense. There is no way there is any evidence whatsoever that convinces me that this was some plot on the part of China. This insane lockdown was by no means contrived by China. The blame for that belongs on the shoulders of Bill Gates and his control of all the health organizations. The fact that Sweden did not lockdown and shows that their experience with this virus is no different than countries that locked down.

It gives me no pleasure to gloat about our forecasts being correct. Perhaps deep inside I had hoped that if I exposed the cycle, we would have some common sense to respect this and exercise restraint. In that respect, I am a fool to have any faith that we perhaps could learn from the cycle and act accordingly. I do not know what more I can do. I am in the middle. I see the authoritarian desires of the left who want to suppress all of us and the extreme authoritarian right which far too often believe confrontation and war as an answer.

There should be a REAL investigation of the call for this lockdown rather than blaming China. To me, this is like going after the gun manufacturer rather than the guy you robbed the store and kill people. Even if China intentionally leaked this virus, it was NOT even as lethal as the flu. This to me is just total BS. If it was some biological weapon, that is different. There is ZERO evidence of that. All the evidence so far shows that if it was a leak, it was certainly not intentional. That does not warrant sanctions.

Once you impose sanctions, you create a cold war. Look at Russia. Nixon opened China to divide and conquer. Are we really that stupid to close China and encourage them to join Russia in a cold war that will further destroy the world economy and most likely lead to real war? Unfortunately, 2020 was the year for a sharp rise in volatility so this is on target. This cycle should peak out by 2027.

TED Talks


QUESTION: Marty you should do a TED talk. I understand you are swamped with real clients and politicians. But a TED talk for us peons would be appropriate. How about it?

JA

ANSWER: I would agree to do another brief one. But I am not sure you can do any sort of a gathering right now. Maybe here in Florida where we are not locked-down. The previous one I did was in Vermont. Certainly, I cannot fly there right now. Otherwise, I guess it would have to be a virtual event I suppose. Not sure they do that.