The Rising Tide of Civil Unrest Globally


QUESTION:

Dear Marty , what do you’re models say about the unrest in South America (Chili, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentinia) .

It looks like the whole continent is on flames.

All the best,

ciao G

ANSWER: I will update the Cycle of War in 2020. As I have stated many times, the computer has correlated both the international war among nations as well as the civil unrest which leads to revolutions. Normally, these two separate models move at different times. When they align, we get the most dramatic changes. This is what is taking place right now on a global scale. We have rising civil unrest around the globe. There is no place that is exempt.

We will see even the US 2020 elections become much more violent. It will be similar to the 1960s, but this is not over race. This time economics is driving the cycle which is being articulated in the battle between socialism v capitalism. Never before in history do we see the losing side simply refuse to accept their loss and move on. This nonsense that Trump is “#NotMyPresident” reflects the rising discontent which will turn to violence next year.

Then the socialists are out to destroy capitalism using climate change. This is also a cleverly orchestrated movement that is political beneath the surface. Shutting down fuel, ending cars and air travel — people have no idea that the agenda is to send society back to the Stone Age and end, not just industrialization, but capitalism.

This is not going to end well. The stupidity of people to ascribe to climate change without looking closely at the proposals is just an illustration of how easily the mob can be fooled. They are being convinced to surrender all their freedoms on the pretense that we face extinction in 12 years.

The Big Bang and the Process Unfolding into 2025


QUESTION:  Hi Martin, I am a long time follower and devoted to your blogs. It’s something that goes well with that first cup of coffee in the morning. In your responses to some people regarding an alternate place to escape from government tyranny, I would suggest that it is not easy for many who have a spouse, family or grandchildren (if if you have the means to do so). Another aspect is how does one assess whether the place they are moving to will have a stable government five years from now or longer, because there is always the threat from another country wanting your resources, workers, strategic land, etc. I don’t think it is easy for anyone to up and move away from family and friends whom they would leave behind – and contact via social media, well, that’s doesn’t work for me.

Thank you.

PP

ANSWER: The cracks in the system will begin to appear next year. This is part of the Big Bang that began 2015.75, and was the PEAK in government confidence. As this unfolds, it will become clearer as to where to go. Keep in mind that the collapse in governments is predominantly in the West. There will be rising separatist movements, so we will see varying pockets of political unrest. We are just too far away from that for me to speak without guessing. It does appear that Asia will be the better place in general. They are not embracing socialism or this insane climate change agenda

Artificial Intelligence v Sophisticated Analytics


QUESTION:

Socrates vs Aladdin

I would like to start by saying thank you for all the knowledge in an altruist way you provide to the world. Reading your blog is part of my daily activities for years now. And what i difference it has made in opening my mind.

I would like if you could comment in which way is different Socrates’ capabilities to Blackrock Aladdin. Since they state exactly what Socrates stands for, unbiased worldwide analysis.

On another topic, read a far fetch theory the other day, that are about 8 to 8.5k people worldwide that control the BIS, making them the lords of all this chaos and nonsense of economic imbalances we live in (life of constant debt). If you find convenient, could you please elaborate on your words of knowledge on the topic.

Many thanks and best regards

PG

ANSWER: Blackrock Aladdin® is only an operating system for investment managers. It does provide information which is the typical standard money management tool. It involves the standard array of sophisticated risk analytics used in portfolio management. It is not Artificial Intelligence that writes an analysis on its own. It is a platform with tools where the manager must still make informed decision-making and use effective risk management.

Here is the screen on the NASDAQ. What you see is a number of tools you can look at. The Global Market Watch pinpointed the 18th as a “Potential Key High,” which was based upon true AI. The difference is the computer is providing its conclusion. The rest of the tools are there for your personal informed decision-making. Then Socrates writes a report on each level of the market as well and provides a summary overview. This, again, is AI.

Providing an algorithm that is a tool like a stochastic is standard in the world. We have the standard risk models you can look at as well. All of that is NOT Artificial Intelligence for you are making the decision based upon a standard tool. The tool is not telling you its conclusion. There is nothing out there that writes a report after analyzing the entire world.

As far as the BIS is concerned, that is just a conspiracy theory. Even the Kenneth Rogoff told Bloomberg: “A joke, which I have been telling since the last meeting in Davos, culminates in the fact that the predictions made in Davos are always wrong… No matter how unlikely, the most likely event is the one that is the opposite of the Davos consensus.” In fact, he may have said it was a joke, but it is true. They have never made a single forecast that was correct at any of these gatherings. They lack the tools of the global economy and ONLY someone who has actually traded in the markets can possibly understand the true capital flows.

Lagarde – ECB – Euro


The central banks are keenly aware that they cannot stimulate economic growth, although they will not state that publicly. The wheel of fortune has completed its revolution. The central bankers are quietly lobbying the political side of the aisle to swing back to Keynesian fiscal policy and reverse austerity.

The 63-year-old Christine Lagarde was supported among members of the ECB who disagreed with Draghi. This resulted in a deadlock among Eurozone policymakers that began behind closed doors, but toward the end it began to spill out onto the streets. What I was hearing 2 years ago behind the curtain was starting to leak out. The Eurozone’s faltering economy was creating a huge divergence in ideas with Draghi. This resulted in a serious clash when it came time to the ECB’s rate-setting committee with departing President Mario Draghi’s negative interest rates and never-ending QE. If such policies were to work, it should have done so quickly within a year or two, and not 5 years of negative rates and 11 years of QE.

Lagarde was providing hints that she would seek consensus among politicians in the Eurozone for fiscal policy changes. She knew that the ECB could not win the fight to support the economy by itself. Publicly, Lagarde implied she would follow Draghi’s path and keep monetary policy ultra-loose to lift euro-area inflation. She really had no choice in that regard. Nevertheless, she is aware Draghi’s policy has been a failure but the ECB is trapped. Monetary policy at the ECB is doomed despite the fact she has said that the tools to tackle a downturn are available to the ECB and they must be ready to use them if needed.

Lagarde is steeping into a growing confrontation at a time of rising challenges for central bankers when the economy is turning downward despite all the stimulus and inflation remains subdued. At the same time, interest rates remain artificially low and there are questions over what policymakers have that could do anything to combat a more serious downturn. Lagarde has begun lobbying governments and arguing they need to step in with fiscal stimulus to fill the gap. Central bankers have lost their ability to control inflation or steer the economy while politicians are anything but united in the face of rising political separations and unrest.

Lagarde realizes the economy faces downside risks with inflation in a deflationary position. She has stated it’s “therefore clear that monetary policy needs to remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future.” While she pretends that the ECB can cut interest rates further despite already being at a record-low -0.4%, she also realizes it is causing massive problems. It has become a deterrent for the euro to be considered a reserve currency. There have been other side effects from keeping rates well below zero for too long, such as promoting a pension crisis nobody wishes to address publicly for fear of creating a panic. She acknowledged these problems stating that the “ECB has hit the effective lower bound on policy rates, it is clear that low rates have implications for the banking sector and financial stability more generally.” Lagarde further acknowledged that “it will be essential to closely monitor whether adverse side effects may emerge in the future, the longer low interest rates are in place

North Korea – Famine & Civil Unrest


One of the reasons North Korea has such a large army is not patriotism. Those in the army are fed before everyone else. North Korea has always had a major problem — growing food. From a timing perspective, 72 years from the birth of the 38th parallel brought us to 2017. The War Cycle involving North Korea brings us to 2020.92. The 38th parallel of latitude was established on September 8, 1945 (1945.68). This arrangement proved to be the indirect beginning of a divided Korea that would lead to the Korean War (1950–1953). The war resulted in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and subsequent Cold War. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 deprived North Korea of its main source of economic aid. Without Soviet aid, North Korea’s economy went into an economic freefall in 1992, which was pretty much in line with the Economic Confidence Model calculated from the birth of the 38th parallel.

Kim Jong-il was already conducting most of the day-to-day activities of running the state. His father, Kim Il-sung, died from a sudden heart attack on July 8, 1994. He became the General-Secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party. Kim Jong-un’s power lies in his secret police force, exactly as the Stasi held power in East Germany.

When Korea was split in 1945 into Communist North against the South, the terrain has always dictated the situation. About 65% of Korea’s heavy industry was located in the north, but, due to the harshness of the terrain, only 37% of its agriculture existed in the North. This is why the North often has bouts of famine. The crops are failing in North Korea exactly on time. The BBC has reported that the harvest is expected to be worse than usual, which is going to increase the already severe food shortages in the country and may result in a military crisis. I explained on March 29, 2018:

“The entire world is going to go nuts 2031/2032. There will not be a country that is spared from political and economic events. The risk a serious famine in North Korea which could result in the people rising up will arrive in 2023. That pressure will begin here this year 2018.70 – which will be September 13th, 2018. This appears to the turning point that is not just concerning North Korea. It is appearing around the world in many markets. The risk for political change in North Korea comes into play as soon as 2019/2020.”

We are looking at conditions that would normally lead to a revolution in North Korea. There will be a rise in civil unrest. The question becomes whether the army will stand behind Kim and increase international war tensions or divide to overthrow him. There is nothing like famine to force political change.

The Hidden Order & The Motive For Something Greater Than the Norm


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong;
What I have witnessed from your Socrates and the private blog the past two days, Nov. 29, 30, 2017, has got to be one of the most incredible man-made technological wonders ever created.
I am only a few years into your models but the past two days has left me stunned. The Socrates system and your blogs have captured, analyzed, and translated what I used to call the mood of the markets. I could for some time see underlying patterns and capture general ideas of trends by market fundamentals and of course political/investor influences, but how to analyze it all yet capture the actions of a human driven market to a precise time is nothing short of earth shattering (with a touch of “I told you so” if I may add).

There is a natural explanation captured within the Socrates analysis, which to me boggles my mind as most algorithms, codes, formulas are not at all natural. I recall reading the night when you said the outputs of your models “came to you”. The computer was giving answers but how to translate them was the key. That moment must have been like no other.

Your market skills were proven, then you set out to offer this public service, commercial free no less, which naturally has pissed off the ones that wanted an unearned advantage, credentials, and limelight. Strange how the pure-hearted always come out on top.

During my formal engineering career, I have had a nose for finding the best tool, system or person for the job, and finding your work crushes other analysts, those who are now, as you have put it so eloquently “getting their face smashed into the sidewalk.”

I want you to know that I am one of the little people you seem to want to help. One that relies on the savings over time and can now guide not only my own future but others as well. I am fortunate because I had to save on my own, employers don’t give benefit packages to cripples, because if they did I wouldn’t have got the job. At investing I wasn’t bad at nailing a few market trends but I had to learn on my own since nothing I came across made any sense to me, but learning your system is dominating knowledge. I want you to know that I study your writings a good sixty hours a week because I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but there’s no sense in not trying. I’m not that good yet but I can’t get enough.

You gave me this confidence sir, so as petty as this letter is, I just want you to know that this is one life that is bettered because of your generosity and those people in your organization who must be some of the best to offer such an incredible gift.

I owe you one;

RH

REPLY: The entire objective of what is behind my motives here is to demonstrate that we can manage the economy if we understand its true nature and how everything is linked together. Granted, perhaps only an international hedge fund manager has such an opportunity to see a world from a very high altitude, whereas a domestic fund manager just looks at the local headlines and the latest cryptic ramblings from the Fed. In the international arena, you have to pay attention to everything everywhere. When I was in Singapore, the election took place the night before in the neighboring country. I had to know what took place and who was involved. I cannot say, oh let me get back to you on that, and then go ask Google. We have to pay attention to politics everywhere because that implicates COUNTRY RISK – the #1 criteria on investment strategy.

I have poured all my experience into training Socrates. I taught it HOW to analyze, and turned it loose upon the world. There is NOTHING out there like it. It cannot even be copied. It incorporates my personal trading experience of more than 50 years combined with my understanding of programming.

That said, my motive is to try to make a difference in this world for my own family in the future. This is not about making money for me. If that was my objective, I would be selling advertising and people’s names. We get a lot of requests to advertise on our sites. I reject that because people trust me and they might take that as some sort of endorsement. The best thing is not to accept advertising because I cannot stand behind what others are doing.

 

 

We will have an opportunity in 2032 to reshape society. It is my hope that the more people who witness Socrates will realize this is not me personally writing over 1,000 reports daily on instruments around the world. Then its accomplishments will prove that there is a hidden order behind the veil of chaos. When we run the Dow through our Chaos Models, a clear pattern is revealed confirming that this is no random walk. This is also why there are some who are desperate to prevent people from listening to Socrates or me. They want to keep the status quo. Others try to criticize me as if I was one of them and offering just personal opinion. They cannot get their head around that this is a computer that sees everything on a global scale, with the most sophisticated models in the world, and it can articulate completely on its own. It is something that will survive my death, which was my goal.

As they say, you can’t take it with you. So the answer — find a way to leave it behind!

The Risk of War between Pakistan & India


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your model which forecasts the start of rising tensions between Pakistan and India for 2019 has been absolutely correct. What do you see now going forward?

KED

ANSWER: The history of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan began on August 14, 1947 (1947.619) when the country became an independent nation within the British Commonwealth as the result of the partition of India. This has been a divide based upon religion and there lies the threat of war. The target for 2019 was 72 years from the beginning of the modern state of Pakistan. The threat here is one of nuclear war between the two and the impact that could have on the global environment. Make no mistake about it, reason takes a secondary position to religion.

The target year of 2019 was the beginning. The tensions will continue to rise and reach a peak in 2025. If there is a risk of a nuclear war, that would probably be at its greatest point by January 2025. The ancient history of the region is very complicated. It has been part of many overlapping various empires from Greek to Indo.

Misrepresenting Our Forecast for the Start of Big Bang 2015.75


COMMENT: I find it really shocking how people are slandering you claiming you forecast that 2015.75 would be the collapse of everything instead of the peak in governments and the beginning of the decline and fall. You have made that very clear that this was the turning point to begin the change. It was the precise day Russia sent troops into Syria. It was the start of the massive migration of refugees to Europe. It was the start of the shift in politics that led to Trump’s victory the following year. It seems that there are people desperate to try to prevent others from listing to you. I think they are conspiring against the people.

HS

REPLY: I know. It is an outright misrepresentation of our forecasts and it is deliberate. Our post back in 2014 laid it out clearly:

“As we approach the start of BIG BANG (2015.75), which is 26 years from the first crack in Marxism 1989 first observed in China followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall within months, ever since the world has been drastically altered economically. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was part of this process. That was not a CIA plot, but the unraveling of the Marxist Era. We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05.”

December 28, 2014

I think the collapse in the confidence of governments has been indeed the pronounced characteristic of this 4.3 year part of the wave. The European and Japanese Bond markets have been destroyed. Both governments are on life support. I think we have some very serious sovereign debt problems and we are looking at that on the state and municipal levels. Why would someone claim we have been wrong and misrepresent that there is no sovereign debt crisis? It certainly seems that they are spreading propaganda to help keep the banks and governments in play.

Socialism is making a major play to win the 2020 elections here in the States. We have an obvious coup unfolding against Trump carried out by the CIA, FBI, and NSA. This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!!The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024.

They simply try to assume this is my personal opinion and they are incapable of looking at the global economy and how it is all connected. Focusing on a single component blinds them from seeing the whole.

I fully appreciate we can bring legal action against them and have sent that question to our lawyers.

Catalonia & the Inevitable Split of Spain


QUESTION: Hi Marty,
I was expecting a blog about Catalonia after the trial. So, here I am. Things have escalated lately and we are seeing violence in the streets. People are getting angry with no solution nor proposal from Madrid on the table for years. Spain will never allow Catalonia to get independence, a referendum nor anything basically. They will do everything they can to avoid it. We did see that so many times already, working very closely with the law. It seems to me that independence has never been so close though. I am expecting PSOE together with PP to rule after 10N. They will make bad decisions again and I see that after that we might see the last part of the journey to finally get independence. I am not sure how this could/will be done. Spanish will jail everyone, beat everyone and call us nazis, violent, not using the law properly, supremacists etc. EU will not support it again. This time though I have the feeling we will make it. What does you/Socrates see here? How can independence be achieved in these circumstances? Spain has the law (theirs) and the power to stopped, but this has gone too far, we really need to do it. Our future and our children’s future are at high risk sticking within Spain.
Thanks for all your work.
M
ANSWER: It was the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella in 1469 which united both crowns and set the stage for the creation of the Kingdom of Spain, at the dawn of the modern era. From a cyclical perspective, Spain will probably split by 2029. The separatist movement for Catalonia remains in play. It is only a question of time. The economic pressure will be to surge in 2021/2022 and that will most likely result in the final separation by 2029 with the potential to come a little early by 2025.

The Ability to Filter Which Stocks to Invest In


QUESTION: Thank you for all your work. I was fortunate to be introduced to you in 1986 by a senior broker while I was working at Drexel, Burnham . Your work saved me, my clients from the ’87 crash.
My question: with Socrates forecast of a shift to China as the new financial power, would it not be worthwhile to begin to identify Chinese companies to invest in that will prosper in the longer term. I recognize that timing of when to establish positions is critical. Thank you.
-BC

ANSWER: We have put all the Chinese stocks on the site since we do have offices there. I have made an effort to bring Socrates into China and our forecasting is available throughout China, which is rare. The government is well aware that our services are written by a computer so they do not have to worry that in paragraph three some line may go against their government.

What we will be introducing next year are filters where the computer will create lists of things that have just elected a reversal on different levels and reflect the gaps to provide a good idea of the next move.

We should have a lot more interesting tools available next year where you can make inquiries like that and the computer will respond. As I have said, my goal is to replace me. I have been coding all my personal experiences as a trader over the years and teaching the computer how I analyze things. At the same time, I have been teaching it how to do the research on its own to enable it to teach me new relationships as they are emerging.

We may be able to accomplish where it can speak to you, but it is a major effort to get it to listen to you over the internet. We have had some people proposing a partnership where someone can develop a stand-alone program that resides on your system (app). This would allow you to talk to Socrates and it will retrieve the information you need.

When that is finished, then we will consider the IPO to keep this going after my expiration date arrives. I hope that one day politics will understand that there are cycles, and if we live in harmony with them instead of fighting them, just maybe we can improve society for all. Like the global warming nonsense which all based upon linear assumptions, politics is also based upon vote for me and I will give you X, Y, and Z even if the business cycle is moving in the opposite directio