Trump’s Polls Not Affected by Impeachment


What is really driving the Democrats crazy is that they still refuse to comprehend why Trump was elected to begin with. He was an anti-career politician. Even the Republicans did not get it. This impeachment nonsense would stick ONLY if the people actually believed that Biden and Hillary were honest and Trump was wrong. But Biden’s son getting hired in Ukraine when Ukraine was seeking aid from the USA just does not look ethical regardless of the situation. Hillary’s emails and her brother getting a contract for a gold mine when he had nothing to do with mining just does not seem honest.

The general polls are showing that this latest scandal is just another trumped-up version of Russiagate against Trump. At the end of the day, they will need 2/3 of the Senate to remove Trump, which they will never get.

They have turned politics into a corrupt sewer and the stench is overwhelming the nation. There is just no return to a normal government that at least functions. From here into 2032, it will only get worse.

My concern is still what comes AFTER Trump! Our computer projected Trump as the winner long before the candidate was even selected. Our computer projected at the start of this 51.6-year wave (1985.65) that by 2016 the door would open for a possible third party candidate. That meant 2107.05 which was Wednesday, January 18, 2017. Trump was inaugurated on Saturday, January 21, 2017, 12:00 AM GMT+7. So we were close — off by 2.5 days for a forecast made 31.4 years prior ((1985.65 + 31.4) = 2017.05).

Even AOC overthrew a career Democrat they expected to be speaker of the House. She won for the very same reason as Trump — she was the anti-career politician. Those in Washington just do not comprehend that the people are fed up with all their lies and nonsense. This is BY NO MEANS a Republican v Democrat confrontation. We have moved beyond political parties but they do not wish to see it that way for it means having to accept responsibility for all their mismanagement.

You need not even be pro-Trump to see the incompetence in Washington. Instead of solving problems, the Democrats simply oppose whatever Trump does and seek to remove him. They are idiots for even if they regained the White House, the Republicans will do the same to them. Functioning government has ceased to exist. This is exactly what the computer projects into 2032.

From here on out into 2032, the government will get very aggressive because it knows it is losing control. I am very concerned for the government will attempt to seize control and tighten its grip.

Even if we look at the Pi Turning Point on the previous wave that began 1934.05 with Roosevelt confiscating gold, 31.4 years later was 1965.45, and again on Wednesday that week is when Vietnam started to become a warzone. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara announced in Washington that 22,000 additional American troops were being sent to South Vietnam. The additional deployment would raise the number of U.S. soldiers and officers in South Vietnam to 72,000. That would eventually grow to 9,087,000 military personnel who served on active duty during the Vietnam Era with the peak in troop strength reached 543,482 (April 30, 1968). A total of 58,202 were killed in action with 303,704 wounded.

The Pi target 1913.85 was November 26, 1913. The previous wave that began 1882.45 fell in the middle of the two major acts: the Income Tax passed on October 3, 1913, and the Federal Reserve Act passed on December 23, 1913.

These Pi targets have been rather important political-economic events. Even in Mexico, 1913 was the Mexican Revolution.

Hong Kong & the Continuing Protests


There is no question that the rioting in Hong Kong has been violent as protesters even set cars on fire. Business is very concerned for as this continues, it does threaten the shift of the financial hub to Singapore. We have clients on every side of this issue over here as we have three offices in Asia. So we have the concerns from all sides. There is a fear that if China is forced to send in troops that this may break the peg and result in financial business moving to Singapore. So the stakes are rather high over here.

Tony Tsang, the 18-year-old Hong Kong student protester who was shot in the chest by police at close range as he fought an officer with a metal pipe on Tuesday. He was charged with rioting. He faces a maximum 10-year sentence for assaulting a police officer. Police have urged the government to impose curfews as the violence continues to escalate. China has increased its troop strength on the border and the Hong Kong economy has been taking a nosedive.

The extradition bill that began the protests has been withdrawn. However, that is only one of their five demands. The protesters have also demanded an independent probe into the use of force by police; amnesty for arrested protesters; a halt to categorizing the protests as riots; and the implementation of universal suffrage.

The Hong Kong dollar peg will either break or be allowed to readjust and the two targets appear to be November and January. The ideal targets seem to be 789 and 797. This is when the risk will be at its greatest. Keep in mind that it could come prematurely in October or December. The key weeks ahead for turning points appear to be 10/07, 11/04, 11/18, and 12/02.


The View from Business

COMMENT: Marty, you’ve always been vigilant against biased news from FNF (Fake News Factories.) So I’m hopeful I’ll get an audience in you. In your recent blog “Hong Kong & Risks in Asia” (9/27) you’ve finally used the word “violent” to describe the rioting in my hometown.

As usual, you were the first to call it as it is, but then you hastened to add that the police threw tear gas, as if that had precipitated the violence! I must assume you’ve been fed the same fake news that we get here in the west, even though you’re currently in Asia.

The picture the FNFs painted of Hong Kong is a lonely cry for help. However, the flip side they don’t show is the destruction, business closures, loss of jobs, and fear for life and limb that the rioters have brought upon the silent majority. They’ve set fire to cars, homes, and MTR, shut down the airport, beat up tourists and the elderly, even stormed government offices and destroyed everything inside!

Try that on the White House and watch them drop you like flies! If MY police is faulted for “excessive force” in protecting us the same way, then the only thing “excessive” is the taxes I paid the government. To be sure, most Hong Kong residents would welcome universal suffrage, but we denounce terrorism and wish to restore peace and order. However, with the biased media fanning the fire, I can see civil war within the city of Hong Kong by your 2020 ECM turning point.

In summary, may I point out that in the past 3 to 4 decades, Hong Kong has prospered incredibly with the rise of China, and did so without even a semblance of democracy, under the Brits or under China. But what we did have was peace and order. We really like to have that back now. So if the world honestly wants Hong Kong to have something it deserves but isn’t getting, please stop fanning the fire. Hot heads (on both sides) need time to cool.

 

REPLY: I am NOT suggesting that the police acted first with tear gas. That was a response to the riots.

Do the Numbers Really Matter or is it Just a Feeling?


QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Just a little curious after reading your blog on ‘Can Anyone Really Influence Elections?’ , I was wondering if your model actually showed that India would get a majority mandate to the ruling dispensation a second time even though the Economy had been growing weaker over the last few years especially post 2016 (in their first term). From what I understand after reading your blogs is that Economy is a major factor/force in deciding people’s verdict. Would you say that its the ‘ Right ruling parties’ getting dominant globally or that ‘Economy comes after Politics’ that’s the reason?

Many thanks in anticipation,

US (India)

ANSWER: Yes, but the real economy was declining. They can play with the numbers all they want, but the real trend is set in motion by the true “feeling” of the people. The bulk of the people do not listen to the financial news or have any clue as to the numbers the government produces. They vote based upon what they actually see. This is why Trump and Brexit won. Playing with the numbers and trying to manipulate polls does not work. The truth will always surface. That is what makes the trend move. It is why Quantitative Easing has failed. It is why the decline in the economy of India is being blamed on anyone but the government. Canceling the currency in a declining wave was a disastrous move on the part of the government.

Reversals – Energy – A Different Dimension


QUESTION: Hi Marty… I’ve been reading your blog for several years now.

I’ve been trying to understand the basics about your reversal system is with no luck.
Yet I’ve been trading stocks with only simple trend lines for years using basic tech A.

PS I still don’t even understand how the Federal Reserve works either… they don’t teach you that stuff in high school!

Yes, I’ve watched every video or post on reversals on your site and not getting it. I know I’m not that smart but I’m not that dumb either!

Can you pretty please post a very clear layman’s chart using a stock or a commodity with prices like gold to show us dummies so we “GET IT”

Thanks Marty….

A dumb Canuck

ANSWER: Look, the reversals are a black box and I keep it that way along with the Schema Frequencies. This is a physics solution to how the world ticks. It is not a simple moving average, stochastics, or one-dimensional formula. It is highly complex and many people have tried to reverse engineer it but have failed. They may think they have come close but they cannot account for the next number.

Traditionally, economists argue there is a business cycle, but nobody can forecast the cycle. Therefore, with tools of interest rates, taxes, and money supply, governments can manipulate the business cycle. The problem is that even Larry Summers admitted that he cannot forecast the economy. This stems from the problem of their failure to understand cyclical movement,to begin with. The Schema Frequencies resolve the complexity of cyclical movement.

The Energy indicator is against based upon physics and it exposes the true opposing forces at work irrespective of the superficial price levels. The key to this is looking for the divergence when prices are rising and Energy is declining. This is a warning signal that such a rally is NOT sustainable. Likewise, when prices are falling but Energy begins to rise, once more there is a divergence warning that the decline is losing energy and a low is near. Just look at this daily chart on gold. You can see the divergence as Energy peaked well in advance.

These indicators are not your standard variety of analysis. They are entirely beyond the one-dimensional analysis world for the markets are not only all connected globally, but the entire system is fractal. So we have a fractal relationship within each market and then a fractal relationship on a global perspective.

The models do all the calculations that are humanly impossible to carry out before a market even closes. It allows us to stand back and see the overview which then reveals the trends. Many have tried to prevent our forecasts. They have tried to ignore what this computer has been doing in hopes that I will die and that will be the end of it. I see this as a means to an end — to help society manage the business cycle without destroying our human rights and our freedom. I have to protect this because there are those who would use it behind the curtain for personal gain against the world.

Sometimes in life, we stumble upon something like the discovery of penicillin. It has saved lives. People just accept that and do not need to know the formula behind it.

The Coming Economic Crisis told in Spanish


 

Can AI Think?


QUESTION: In George Gilder’s book “Life after Google” he states:
“AI cannot compete with the human intelligence that connects symbols and objects. AI cannot do without the human minds that provide it with symbols systems and language; programs it; structures the information it absorbs in training, whether word patterns or pixels; provides and formulates the big data in which it finds numerical correlations; and sets up the goals and reward schemes and target sequences that allow it to iterate, optimize, and converge on a solution. Consisting of inputs cascading through complex set of algorithms to produce outputs. AI cannot think at all.”

As someone who has developed Socrates I was wondering what your thoughts are as to the future of AI?

CSK

ANSWER: George Gilder is not a programmer. His comment is just skimming the surface. There is no complex set of algorithms that will stand the test of time. A computer cannot think, which is correct. That does not mean it is impossible to beat humans. Even Big Blue defeated the best chess player. A computer can analyze every possible strategy and select the best one whereas a human cannot.

When I designed Socrates, I fully understood that there could be no fixed algorithm that would work because the world was all connected and moving dynamically. After all, no empire ever lasted. Everything rises and then falls.

Feeding everything into the system and designing it to investigate, as I would in the human world, allows AI to make decisions based upon those investigations. It does mimic my thinking process, but it is not a biological entity so it has no soul and cannot think.

I taught it language and how to speak back in the 1980s because it would come up with conclusions that baffled me. I had to devise a way to communicate with it to understand how it reached certain conclusions.

Lebanon Declares State of Economic Emergency


Lebanon has maintained a peg to the US dollar for about two decades and as all pegs go, this one is under pressure as the rise in the dollar imports deflation. The central bank has declared an economic emergency as it attempts to reassure people it will hold the peg. Lebanon is one of the world’s most indebted nations and it maintains its pound to a peg of around 1,507.5 to the dollar. This attempt to reassure investors about the country’s ability to repay its debt and strengthen its currency is not being considered reliable as the start of Sovereign Defaults is underway on an economic pressure. Countries have been borrowing year after year with no intention of paying off their national debts. It has been a fool’s game and we are starting to see this pressure build as it will FIRST on the currency pegs, and then on the inability to meet debt payments.

Welcome to Big Bang (2015.75-2022). We begin with peripherals and state/provincial level as well as municipal

Only a Computer can Forecast What no Human Has witnessed in Modern Times


COMMENT: Marty; I found my ticket to your Japanese session from March 1999 when you warned the audience the club was targeting the yen for March-end. You told everyone how to defeat their manipulation and that was just great. You saved everyone billions that day. They called you Mr. Yen for that one. The club didn’t appreciate that call. I heard that on the phones. I remember the yen went from 117 to 122. They lost a lot that week.

I am coming to this 2019 WEC. For someone who has been following you for decades, I understand what you mean that this is an event that has never taken place before in modern market history so we will really need Socrates this time.

May I suggest that you give a quick demo on how to use Socrates to its fullest for this event. I think it would be really helpful this year.

Cheers;

GC

REPLY: Nice to hear from you. Wow, you still have a ticket from Tokyo. That is an excellent suggestion. You are correct. I will do a demo and show how to look for the indicators because it will indeed take a computer to do what no human has ever seen before in modern times.

All the best

A Nose for Trading


QUESTION: I realize my opinion is of little consequence; but I find something interesting and needed to share. After doing a lot of backtesting using many criteria over many stocks my unqualified opinion is that no fixed criteria can be used analyze stock charts over time and many stocks.

I worked with a well respected radiologist in digital imaging. In the early days of digital imaging he perform studies on what resolution and how much time was required to accurately diagnosis a digital image. He told me it came down to a very experienced person would look at an image and get an “impression” of it and not so much looking for #1, #2… etc.

From 20 years of looking at many thousands of stock charts I understand this. As a human I will never be able to write a program that will capture all the nuances my mind will in an instant look at an image. I assume Socrates writes its’ own using an immense amount of data that continually changes. Maybe Socrates can write a program to diagnosis medical images – correct a lot of mistakes.

Bruce

ANSWER: You are absolutely correct. We call it having a “nose” for trading. There is no single algorithm that you can devise or cycle that will predict every turn in a market. The reason for this is because such analysis is attempting to be employed in total isolation. Everything is connected. The Economic Confidence Model has called every turning point in the global economy, right down to the economic decline currently into January 2020.

What you must understand is that this is a global business cycle and you must view it in that fashion. For each wave, the focus shifts. One wave will be a commodity is the hot investment. The next might be real estate, This may be followed by stocks or bonds. Then the focus will shift also around the globe so the “hot” market becomes Japan, then Southeast Asia, then Europe, then America.

Then there is the major trend insofar as the sentiment. We have all witnessed bullish news unfolds yet the market responds in a bearish mode. This is because there is also an oscillating trend to how we interpret events. Just recently, the Fed lowered rate at the top of the stock market in July 2019. The market crashed instead of rallying with lower rates. The interpretation suddenly shifted and people saw it as anticipation of an economic crisis to come.

Nevertheless, the world economy turns with the cycle; some are making highs while others are makings lows. At the same time, we have the rise and fall of nations economically. This is why I say it cannot be forecast by looking at the trend of a single market in motion. While you can do technical analysis on any market, you should never lose track of the entire process. It is the global trend that will swamp a local market and a financial contagion will impact everything during a liquidity crisis. That is what happened in 1998 with the Long-Term Capital Management crisis. The problem was a loss in Russian bonds which could not be liquidated. To cover the losses, they began selling everything else to raise money. Even the Japanese yen rallied with the dollar falling from 147 to 103 in just weeks.

Global Market Watch: DJIND-D

Socrates is monitoring everything so it looks for things differently than a human analyst. Here is the Global Market Watch on the Dow Jones Industrials. It is entirely pattern-recognition. This is a different method of analysis altogether, demonstrating that a computer can have a “nose” for changes by studying the patterns in far more detail than a human. This allows Socrates to look just at the patterns and get that sixth-sense.

Advising Trump


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; you deny advising Trump. Yet you are the only person who had forecast that the US was holding up the rest of the world economy which he also now says. You also said Trump was making a mistake with China, and at the G7 he admitted he may have made a mistake. You previously advocated cutting payroll taxes and has come out and said that is a possibility.

Is it all just a coincidence that he has turned to all of your recommendations? You had Nigel Farage speak for free at the WEC and he is friends with Trump. He wasn’t paid. So he volunteered. Rumor has it you have been advising Asian leaders and you did an interview from there admitting you had clients on both sides of the China issue. You have your finger in the mix. Just admit you advise Trump.

JN

ANSWER: I do not advise President Trump. I do not deny that there are people in his administration and Washington who are well aware of our computer. Yes, Nigel publicly admitted we were the only ones to forecast a BREXIT victory and Trump. Politicians take notice of such forecasts.

If the Trump administration has articulated our forecasts, I cannot say for sure. They may throw them into the pot, shake it rather than sir like James Bond, and then articulate what comes out.

Once again, I am NOT advising Trump directly. If he is being told what our computer is forecasting by others I cannot confirm or deny. I have not had any specific conversations to that effect so far.