The Hidden Order & The Motive For Something Greater Than the Norm


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong;
What I have witnessed from your Socrates and the private blog the past two days, Nov. 29, 30, 2017, has got to be one of the most incredible man-made technological wonders ever created.
I am only a few years into your models but the past two days has left me stunned. The Socrates system and your blogs have captured, analyzed, and translated what I used to call the mood of the markets. I could for some time see underlying patterns and capture general ideas of trends by market fundamentals and of course political/investor influences, but how to analyze it all yet capture the actions of a human driven market to a precise time is nothing short of earth shattering (with a touch of “I told you so” if I may add).

There is a natural explanation captured within the Socrates analysis, which to me boggles my mind as most algorithms, codes, formulas are not at all natural. I recall reading the night when you said the outputs of your models “came to you”. The computer was giving answers but how to translate them was the key. That moment must have been like no other.

Your market skills were proven, then you set out to offer this public service, commercial free no less, which naturally has pissed off the ones that wanted an unearned advantage, credentials, and limelight. Strange how the pure-hearted always come out on top.

During my formal engineering career, I have had a nose for finding the best tool, system or person for the job, and finding your work crushes other analysts, those who are now, as you have put it so eloquently “getting their face smashed into the sidewalk.”

I want you to know that I am one of the little people you seem to want to help. One that relies on the savings over time and can now guide not only my own future but others as well. I am fortunate because I had to save on my own, employers don’t give benefit packages to cripples, because if they did I wouldn’t have got the job. At investing I wasn’t bad at nailing a few market trends but I had to learn on my own since nothing I came across made any sense to me, but learning your system is dominating knowledge. I want you to know that I study your writings a good sixty hours a week because I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but there’s no sense in not trying. I’m not that good yet but I can’t get enough.

You gave me this confidence sir, so as petty as this letter is, I just want you to know that this is one life that is bettered because of your generosity and those people in your organization who must be some of the best to offer such an incredible gift.

I owe you one;

RH

REPLY: The entire objective of what is behind my motives here is to demonstrate that we can manage the economy if we understand its true nature and how everything is linked together. Granted, perhaps only an international hedge fund manager has such an opportunity to see a world from a very high altitude, whereas a domestic fund manager just looks at the local headlines and the latest cryptic ramblings from the Fed. In the international arena, you have to pay attention to everything everywhere. When I was in Singapore, the election took place the night before in the neighboring country. I had to know what took place and who was involved. I cannot say, oh let me get back to you on that, and then go ask Google. We have to pay attention to politics everywhere because that implicates COUNTRY RISK – the #1 criteria on investment strategy.

I have poured all my experience into training Socrates. I taught it HOW to analyze, and turned it loose upon the world. There is NOTHING out there like it. It cannot even be copied. It incorporates my personal trading experience of more than 50 years combined with my understanding of programming.

That said, my motive is to try to make a difference in this world for my own family in the future. This is not about making money for me. If that was my objective, I would be selling advertising and people’s names. We get a lot of requests to advertise on our sites. I reject that because people trust me and they might take that as some sort of endorsement. The best thing is not to accept advertising because I cannot stand behind what others are doing.

 

 

We will have an opportunity in 2032 to reshape society. It is my hope that the more people who witness Socrates will realize this is not me personally writing over 1,000 reports daily on instruments around the world. Then its accomplishments will prove that there is a hidden order behind the veil of chaos. When we run the Dow through our Chaos Models, a clear pattern is revealed confirming that this is no random walk. This is also why there are some who are desperate to prevent people from listening to Socrates or me. They want to keep the status quo. Others try to criticize me as if I was one of them and offering just personal opinion. They cannot get their head around that this is a computer that sees everything on a global scale, with the most sophisticated models in the world, and it can articulate completely on its own. It is something that will survive my death, which was my goal.

As they say, you can’t take it with you. So the answer — find a way to leave it behind!

The Risk of War between Pakistan & India


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your model which forecasts the start of rising tensions between Pakistan and India for 2019 has been absolutely correct. What do you see now going forward?

KED

ANSWER: The history of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan began on August 14, 1947 (1947.619) when the country became an independent nation within the British Commonwealth as the result of the partition of India. This has been a divide based upon religion and there lies the threat of war. The target for 2019 was 72 years from the beginning of the modern state of Pakistan. The threat here is one of nuclear war between the two and the impact that could have on the global environment. Make no mistake about it, reason takes a secondary position to religion.

The target year of 2019 was the beginning. The tensions will continue to rise and reach a peak in 2025. If there is a risk of a nuclear war, that would probably be at its greatest point by January 2025. The ancient history of the region is very complicated. It has been part of many overlapping various empires from Greek to Indo.

Misrepresenting Our Forecast for the Start of Big Bang 2015.75


COMMENT: I find it really shocking how people are slandering you claiming you forecast that 2015.75 would be the collapse of everything instead of the peak in governments and the beginning of the decline and fall. You have made that very clear that this was the turning point to begin the change. It was the precise day Russia sent troops into Syria. It was the start of the massive migration of refugees to Europe. It was the start of the shift in politics that led to Trump’s victory the following year. It seems that there are people desperate to try to prevent others from listing to you. I think they are conspiring against the people.

HS

REPLY: I know. It is an outright misrepresentation of our forecasts and it is deliberate. Our post back in 2014 laid it out clearly:

“As we approach the start of BIG BANG (2015.75), which is 26 years from the first crack in Marxism 1989 first observed in China followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall within months, ever since the world has been drastically altered economically. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was part of this process. That was not a CIA plot, but the unraveling of the Marxist Era. We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05.”

December 28, 2014

I think the collapse in the confidence of governments has been indeed the pronounced characteristic of this 4.3 year part of the wave. The European and Japanese Bond markets have been destroyed. Both governments are on life support. I think we have some very serious sovereign debt problems and we are looking at that on the state and municipal levels. Why would someone claim we have been wrong and misrepresent that there is no sovereign debt crisis? It certainly seems that they are spreading propaganda to help keep the banks and governments in play.

Socialism is making a major play to win the 2020 elections here in the States. We have an obvious coup unfolding against Trump carried out by the CIA, FBI, and NSA. This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!!The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024.

They simply try to assume this is my personal opinion and they are incapable of looking at the global economy and how it is all connected. Focusing on a single component blinds them from seeing the whole.

I fully appreciate we can bring legal action against them and have sent that question to our lawyers.

Catalonia & the Inevitable Split of Spain


QUESTION: Hi Marty,
I was expecting a blog about Catalonia after the trial. So, here I am. Things have escalated lately and we are seeing violence in the streets. People are getting angry with no solution nor proposal from Madrid on the table for years. Spain will never allow Catalonia to get independence, a referendum nor anything basically. They will do everything they can to avoid it. We did see that so many times already, working very closely with the law. It seems to me that independence has never been so close though. I am expecting PSOE together with PP to rule after 10N. They will make bad decisions again and I see that after that we might see the last part of the journey to finally get independence. I am not sure how this could/will be done. Spanish will jail everyone, beat everyone and call us nazis, violent, not using the law properly, supremacists etc. EU will not support it again. This time though I have the feeling we will make it. What does you/Socrates see here? How can independence be achieved in these circumstances? Spain has the law (theirs) and the power to stopped, but this has gone too far, we really need to do it. Our future and our children’s future are at high risk sticking within Spain.
Thanks for all your work.
M
ANSWER: It was the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella in 1469 which united both crowns and set the stage for the creation of the Kingdom of Spain, at the dawn of the modern era. From a cyclical perspective, Spain will probably split by 2029. The separatist movement for Catalonia remains in play. It is only a question of time. The economic pressure will be to surge in 2021/2022 and that will most likely result in the final separation by 2029 with the potential to come a little early by 2025.

The Ability to Filter Which Stocks to Invest In


QUESTION: Thank you for all your work. I was fortunate to be introduced to you in 1986 by a senior broker while I was working at Drexel, Burnham . Your work saved me, my clients from the ’87 crash.
My question: with Socrates forecast of a shift to China as the new financial power, would it not be worthwhile to begin to identify Chinese companies to invest in that will prosper in the longer term. I recognize that timing of when to establish positions is critical. Thank you.
-BC

ANSWER: We have put all the Chinese stocks on the site since we do have offices there. I have made an effort to bring Socrates into China and our forecasting is available throughout China, which is rare. The government is well aware that our services are written by a computer so they do not have to worry that in paragraph three some line may go against their government.

What we will be introducing next year are filters where the computer will create lists of things that have just elected a reversal on different levels and reflect the gaps to provide a good idea of the next move.

We should have a lot more interesting tools available next year where you can make inquiries like that and the computer will respond. As I have said, my goal is to replace me. I have been coding all my personal experiences as a trader over the years and teaching the computer how I analyze things. At the same time, I have been teaching it how to do the research on its own to enable it to teach me new relationships as they are emerging.

We may be able to accomplish where it can speak to you, but it is a major effort to get it to listen to you over the internet. We have had some people proposing a partnership where someone can develop a stand-alone program that resides on your system (app). This would allow you to talk to Socrates and it will retrieve the information you need.

When that is finished, then we will consider the IPO to keep this going after my expiration date arrives. I hope that one day politics will understand that there are cycles, and if we live in harmony with them instead of fighting them, just maybe we can improve society for all. Like the global warming nonsense which all based upon linear assumptions, politics is also based upon vote for me and I will give you X, Y, and Z even if the business cycle is moving in the opposite directio

Trump’s Polls Not Affected by Impeachment


What is really driving the Democrats crazy is that they still refuse to comprehend why Trump was elected to begin with. He was an anti-career politician. Even the Republicans did not get it. This impeachment nonsense would stick ONLY if the people actually believed that Biden and Hillary were honest and Trump was wrong. But Biden’s son getting hired in Ukraine when Ukraine was seeking aid from the USA just does not look ethical regardless of the situation. Hillary’s emails and her brother getting a contract for a gold mine when he had nothing to do with mining just does not seem honest.

The general polls are showing that this latest scandal is just another trumped-up version of Russiagate against Trump. At the end of the day, they will need 2/3 of the Senate to remove Trump, which they will never get.

They have turned politics into a corrupt sewer and the stench is overwhelming the nation. There is just no return to a normal government that at least functions. From here into 2032, it will only get worse.

My concern is still what comes AFTER Trump! Our computer projected Trump as the winner long before the candidate was even selected. Our computer projected at the start of this 51.6-year wave (1985.65) that by 2016 the door would open for a possible third party candidate. That meant 2107.05 which was Wednesday, January 18, 2017. Trump was inaugurated on Saturday, January 21, 2017, 12:00 AM GMT+7. So we were close — off by 2.5 days for a forecast made 31.4 years prior ((1985.65 + 31.4) = 2017.05).

Even AOC overthrew a career Democrat they expected to be speaker of the House. She won for the very same reason as Trump — she was the anti-career politician. Those in Washington just do not comprehend that the people are fed up with all their lies and nonsense. This is BY NO MEANS a Republican v Democrat confrontation. We have moved beyond political parties but they do not wish to see it that way for it means having to accept responsibility for all their mismanagement.

You need not even be pro-Trump to see the incompetence in Washington. Instead of solving problems, the Democrats simply oppose whatever Trump does and seek to remove him. They are idiots for even if they regained the White House, the Republicans will do the same to them. Functioning government has ceased to exist. This is exactly what the computer projects into 2032.

From here on out into 2032, the government will get very aggressive because it knows it is losing control. I am very concerned for the government will attempt to seize control and tighten its grip.

Even if we look at the Pi Turning Point on the previous wave that began 1934.05 with Roosevelt confiscating gold, 31.4 years later was 1965.45, and again on Wednesday that week is when Vietnam started to become a warzone. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara announced in Washington that 22,000 additional American troops were being sent to South Vietnam. The additional deployment would raise the number of U.S. soldiers and officers in South Vietnam to 72,000. That would eventually grow to 9,087,000 military personnel who served on active duty during the Vietnam Era with the peak in troop strength reached 543,482 (April 30, 1968). A total of 58,202 were killed in action with 303,704 wounded.

The Pi target 1913.85 was November 26, 1913. The previous wave that began 1882.45 fell in the middle of the two major acts: the Income Tax passed on October 3, 1913, and the Federal Reserve Act passed on December 23, 1913.

These Pi targets have been rather important political-economic events. Even in Mexico, 1913 was the Mexican Revolution.

Hong Kong & the Continuing Protests


There is no question that the rioting in Hong Kong has been violent as protesters even set cars on fire. Business is very concerned for as this continues, it does threaten the shift of the financial hub to Singapore. We have clients on every side of this issue over here as we have three offices in Asia. So we have the concerns from all sides. There is a fear that if China is forced to send in troops that this may break the peg and result in financial business moving to Singapore. So the stakes are rather high over here.

Tony Tsang, the 18-year-old Hong Kong student protester who was shot in the chest by police at close range as he fought an officer with a metal pipe on Tuesday. He was charged with rioting. He faces a maximum 10-year sentence for assaulting a police officer. Police have urged the government to impose curfews as the violence continues to escalate. China has increased its troop strength on the border and the Hong Kong economy has been taking a nosedive.

The extradition bill that began the protests has been withdrawn. However, that is only one of their five demands. The protesters have also demanded an independent probe into the use of force by police; amnesty for arrested protesters; a halt to categorizing the protests as riots; and the implementation of universal suffrage.

The Hong Kong dollar peg will either break or be allowed to readjust and the two targets appear to be November and January. The ideal targets seem to be 789 and 797. This is when the risk will be at its greatest. Keep in mind that it could come prematurely in October or December. The key weeks ahead for turning points appear to be 10/07, 11/04, 11/18, and 12/02.


The View from Business

COMMENT: Marty, you’ve always been vigilant against biased news from FNF (Fake News Factories.) So I’m hopeful I’ll get an audience in you. In your recent blog “Hong Kong & Risks in Asia” (9/27) you’ve finally used the word “violent” to describe the rioting in my hometown.

As usual, you were the first to call it as it is, but then you hastened to add that the police threw tear gas, as if that had precipitated the violence! I must assume you’ve been fed the same fake news that we get here in the west, even though you’re currently in Asia.

The picture the FNFs painted of Hong Kong is a lonely cry for help. However, the flip side they don’t show is the destruction, business closures, loss of jobs, and fear for life and limb that the rioters have brought upon the silent majority. They’ve set fire to cars, homes, and MTR, shut down the airport, beat up tourists and the elderly, even stormed government offices and destroyed everything inside!

Try that on the White House and watch them drop you like flies! If MY police is faulted for “excessive force” in protecting us the same way, then the only thing “excessive” is the taxes I paid the government. To be sure, most Hong Kong residents would welcome universal suffrage, but we denounce terrorism and wish to restore peace and order. However, with the biased media fanning the fire, I can see civil war within the city of Hong Kong by your 2020 ECM turning point.

In summary, may I point out that in the past 3 to 4 decades, Hong Kong has prospered incredibly with the rise of China, and did so without even a semblance of democracy, under the Brits or under China. But what we did have was peace and order. We really like to have that back now. So if the world honestly wants Hong Kong to have something it deserves but isn’t getting, please stop fanning the fire. Hot heads (on both sides) need time to cool.

 

REPLY: I am NOT suggesting that the police acted first with tear gas. That was a response to the riots.

Do the Numbers Really Matter or is it Just a Feeling?


QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Just a little curious after reading your blog on ‘Can Anyone Really Influence Elections?’ , I was wondering if your model actually showed that India would get a majority mandate to the ruling dispensation a second time even though the Economy had been growing weaker over the last few years especially post 2016 (in their first term). From what I understand after reading your blogs is that Economy is a major factor/force in deciding people’s verdict. Would you say that its the ‘ Right ruling parties’ getting dominant globally or that ‘Economy comes after Politics’ that’s the reason?

Many thanks in anticipation,

US (India)

ANSWER: Yes, but the real economy was declining. They can play with the numbers all they want, but the real trend is set in motion by the true “feeling” of the people. The bulk of the people do not listen to the financial news or have any clue as to the numbers the government produces. They vote based upon what they actually see. This is why Trump and Brexit won. Playing with the numbers and trying to manipulate polls does not work. The truth will always surface. That is what makes the trend move. It is why Quantitative Easing has failed. It is why the decline in the economy of India is being blamed on anyone but the government. Canceling the currency in a declining wave was a disastrous move on the part of the government.

Reversals – Energy – A Different Dimension


QUESTION: Hi Marty… I’ve been reading your blog for several years now.

I’ve been trying to understand the basics about your reversal system is with no luck.
Yet I’ve been trading stocks with only simple trend lines for years using basic tech A.

PS I still don’t even understand how the Federal Reserve works either… they don’t teach you that stuff in high school!

Yes, I’ve watched every video or post on reversals on your site and not getting it. I know I’m not that smart but I’m not that dumb either!

Can you pretty please post a very clear layman’s chart using a stock or a commodity with prices like gold to show us dummies so we “GET IT”

Thanks Marty….

A dumb Canuck

ANSWER: Look, the reversals are a black box and I keep it that way along with the Schema Frequencies. This is a physics solution to how the world ticks. It is not a simple moving average, stochastics, or one-dimensional formula. It is highly complex and many people have tried to reverse engineer it but have failed. They may think they have come close but they cannot account for the next number.

Traditionally, economists argue there is a business cycle, but nobody can forecast the cycle. Therefore, with tools of interest rates, taxes, and money supply, governments can manipulate the business cycle. The problem is that even Larry Summers admitted that he cannot forecast the economy. This stems from the problem of their failure to understand cyclical movement,to begin with. The Schema Frequencies resolve the complexity of cyclical movement.

The Energy indicator is against based upon physics and it exposes the true opposing forces at work irrespective of the superficial price levels. The key to this is looking for the divergence when prices are rising and Energy is declining. This is a warning signal that such a rally is NOT sustainable. Likewise, when prices are falling but Energy begins to rise, once more there is a divergence warning that the decline is losing energy and a low is near. Just look at this daily chart on gold. You can see the divergence as Energy peaked well in advance.

These indicators are not your standard variety of analysis. They are entirely beyond the one-dimensional analysis world for the markets are not only all connected globally, but the entire system is fractal. So we have a fractal relationship within each market and then a fractal relationship on a global perspective.

The models do all the calculations that are humanly impossible to carry out before a market even closes. It allows us to stand back and see the overview which then reveals the trends. Many have tried to prevent our forecasts. They have tried to ignore what this computer has been doing in hopes that I will die and that will be the end of it. I see this as a means to an end — to help society manage the business cycle without destroying our human rights and our freedom. I have to protect this because there are those who would use it behind the curtain for personal gain against the world.

Sometimes in life, we stumble upon something like the discovery of penicillin. It has saved lives. People just accept that and do not need to know the formula behind it.

The Coming Economic Crisis told in Spanish