JOINT STATEMENT – Today, Ambassador Lighthizer and Minister Kim are pleased to announce that the United States and the Republic of Korea have reached an agreement in principle on the general terms of amendments and modifications to the United States-Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). The nations have also agreed on terms for a country exemption for the Republic of Korea from tariffs imposed on steel imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 pursuant to Presidential Proclamation 9705, as amended.  The arrangement with respect to steel imports is expected to take effect on May 1, 2018.  (link)

Ever since the original 2012 US-Korea free trade agreement (KORUS) went into effect, the U.S. trade deficit in goods with Korea increased by over 73 percent from $13.2 billion to $22.9 billion (2017), while the overall deficit increased by 70 percent from $6.3 billion to $10.7 billion (2017).  President Trump committed his administration to changing this immediately and renegotiating a deal that benefited the United States.

“The improved KORUS agreement reflects the President’s leadership in delivering more reciprocal trade outcomes benefiting U.S. workers, exporters, and businesses. The United States and Korea have strengthened an important economic relationship by agreeing to substantial improvements to KORUS that will help rebalance our trade, reduce our trade deficit, and expand U.S. export opportunities.”  ~ U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer

Here’s the historic details:

♦ 1. PROCESS FOR KORUS AMENDMENTS AND MODIFICATIONS

As directed by the President and with authority provided under the terms of KORUS, the U.S. Trade Representative has worked to resolve issues through the Joint Committee process under the Agreement.

In July 2017, Ambassador Lighthizer initiated trade discussions with Korea, leading to special sessions of the KORUS Joint Committee in 2017 and further negotiations for KORUS amendments and modifications in 2018.

Once completed, the amendments and modifications to KORUS will undergo the United States’ and Korea’s respective domestic review procedures. For the United States, modifications to the U.S. tariff schedule will undergo consultation and layover procedures provided under the implementing act for the KORUS Agreement, which include a 60-day consultation period with Congress.

♦ 2. KEY NEW KORUS FTA OUTCOMES

In these discussions, the United States achieved steps to improve the large trade deficit in industrial goods and to address KORUS implementation concerns that have hindered U.S. export growth.

◊ U.S. Truck Tariffs: Korea will extend the phase out of the 25% U.S. tariff on trucks until 2041, or a total of 30 years following the implementation of the KORUS FTA in 2012. (currently scheduled to phase out by 2021).

◊ Growing U.S. Auto Exports: Exports of U.S. motor vehicles to Korea will be improved through the following steps:

• Greater Access for U.S. Exports: Korea will double the number of U.S. automobile exports, to 50,000 cars per manufacturer per year, that can meet U.S. safety standards (in lieu of Korean standards) and enter the Korean market without further modification.
• Harmonization of Testing Requirements: U.S. gasoline engine vehicle exports will be able to show compliance with Korea’s emission standards using the same tests they conduct to show compliance with U.S. regulations, without additional or duplicative testing for the Korean market.
• Recognition of U.S. Standards for Auto Parts: Korea will recognize U.S. standards for auto parts necessary to service U.S. vehicles, and reduce labeling burdens for parts.
• Improvements to CAFE Standards: Korea will expand the amount of “eco-credits” available to help meet fuel economy and greenhouse gas requirements under the regulations currently in force, while also ensuring that fuel economy targets in future regulations will be set taking U.S. regulations into account and will continue to include more lenient targets for small volume manufacturers.

◊ Customs Improvement: Korea will address long-standing concerns with onerous and costly verification procedures through agreement on principles for conducting verification of origin of exports under KORUS and establish a working group to monitor and address future issues that arise.

◊ Pharmaceutical Reimbursements: Within 2018, Korea will amend its Premium Pricing Policy for Global Innovative Drugs to make it consistent with Korea’s commitments under KORUS to ensure non-discriminatory and fair treatment for U.S. pharmaceutical exports.

♦ 3. CURRENCY AGREEMENT

◊ The U.S. Department of the Treasury is leading discussions on currency with Korea’s Ministry of Strategy and Finance.

◊ An agreement is being finalized on robust provisions to prohibit competitive devaluation and exchange rate manipulation in order to promote a level playing field for trade and investment. Strong commitments on transparency and accountability are included in the provisions.

♦ 4. OUTCOMES FOR SECTION 232 EXEMPTION FOR KOREA

• The President’s action under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, is designed to protect U.S. national security given the massive and persistent global excess capacity for steel and aluminum and the threatened impairment of U.S. national security from imports of such products.
• As the President’s proclamations state, the United States is willing to work with any country with which we have a security relationship to find alternative ways to address the threatened impairment of the national security caused by imports of steel and aluminum.
• The United States has a strong and enduring security relationship with Korea.
• U.S. negotiations with Korea have resulted in a satisfactory alternative for addressing U.S. national security concerns with respect to steel imports.
• Korean imports of steel products into the United States will be subject to a product-specific quota equivalent to 70% of the average annual import volume of such products during the period of 2015-17. This will result in a significant reduction in Korean steel shipments to the United States.

(Link to USTR News Release)

White House Director of Trade and Manufacturing policy Peter Navarro discusses the revamp of the KORUS trade deal with South Korea.  In addition Navarro discusses the ongoing Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as plans to impose tariffs on Chinese products surrounding violations of intellectual-property rights.

[NOTE: Final USTR 301 Report on China was released last night]

It was only six months ago when the international media and U.S. left-wing pundits were proclaiming how we were on the cusp of thermonuclear war with North Korea.  As outlined HERE there was almost no-one paying attention to the approach taken by President Donald Trump to creating the “Magnanimous Panda” outcome.

Well, today those same media are reporting on North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and committing to a denuclearized Korean peninsular:

SEOUL, March 28 (Yonhap) — North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has visited China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping and reaffirmed his commitment to denuclearization during their first summit, the two countries’ media said Wednesday.

The North’s leader made an “unofficial” visit to China from Sunday to Wednesday, accompanied by his wife Ri Sol-ju and key officials, including de facto No. 2 figure Choe Ryong-hae, according to the North’s state-run radio.

It was Kim’s first foreign trip since he took office in late 2011.  The summit came as Kim plans to meet the leaders of South Korea and the United States in the coming months. (read more)

Well, well, well,…. doesn’t this look like the “Magnanimous Panda” outcome previously discussed?

August 2017 […] The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; a group of nations promising economic assistance (size TBD), and some official enterprise of ASEAN partners enters as an agency to oversee nuclear compliance under carefully negotiated terms. Big Panda (Xi Jinping) promises the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein. Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.  SEE HERE and HERE

Funny how that works?...

“complicated business folks,…. complicated business”..

…. And likely no-one in media will ever recognize exactly how it all came together.

August 29th, 2017

August 30th, 2017

China’s objective is conquest.  China’s tool for conquest is economics.  President Trump’s entire geopolitical strategy, using economics in a similar way, is an existential threat to China’s endeavor.  Communist Beijing calls the proverbial DPRK shots.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. Trump and Mnuchin just sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue.  Venezuela now needs more money.  China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding.  Now China and Russia will need to loan more, directly.

♦Squeeze #2.  China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal.  Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has driven down energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria.  Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent.

♦Squeeze #3. Trump and Tillerson just put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China.  If U.S. pulls or reduces financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India.  President Trump has just embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals.  The play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India.  That’s a big play.

♦Squeeze #5.  President Trump has launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property.  This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

♦Squeeze #6.  President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA.  One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

♦Squeeze #7. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation.

♦Squeeze #8.  President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #9.  President Trump has formed an economic and national security alliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan.   It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired his missile over the Northern part of Japan.  Quite simply, Beijing told him to.

Add all of this up and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical economic strategy toward China.  The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of “all of it”, coming.

Six Months Later – This week:  •India announces $500 billion investment in U.S. steelworks.  •USTR finalizes section 301 report on Chinese trade practices.  •The U.S. and South Korea sign historic renegotiated “KORUS” trade deal.  •President Trump handing out Steel and Aluminum tariff exemption cards…..  And, oh yeah, North Korea tells China it agrees to a full reversal of nuclear ambitions.

Funny that.

The actual announcement of KORUS (“KOR”+”U.S.”), the renegotiated U.S. and South Korea trade deal, has yet to be made by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. President Donald Trump.  However, more details are surfacing inside KORUS media leaks.  Fantastic job by Lighthizer!

TOP LINES:

• U.S. Gains twice as many exported vehicles into S-Korea (50k per manufacturer, per year).  [No word on possible Kia / Hyundai tariff or quota – RE: “unlikely”]
• South Korea drops ridiculous customs inspection barriers. [Trade trickery ploy]
• U.S. retains 25% Tariff on S-Korea pickup trucks with extension for 20 years.
• South Korea gets two year exemption from a 25% U.S. steel tariff, but must drop steel export level to 70% of prior two years shipments. (A controlled reduction of 30%).

(Via AP) The new deal doubles — to 50,000 — the cars each U.S. automaker can export annually to South Korea, reduces bureaucratic barriers to American products and extends a 25 percent U.S. tariff on South Korean pickup trucks by 20 years, through 2041.

South Korea escapes America’s new 25 percent tariff on imported steel — but must accept quotas on steel exports equal to 70 percent of its average annual shipments to the United States between 2015 and 2017.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the policy ahead of an official announcement.

The United States this month began imposing the steel tariffs, saying imports jeopardized U.S. national security. But it has been suspending the duties on allies like the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

The U.S. Treasury Department is also in talks on a deal to prevent Seoul from deliberately pushing its currency lower to give South Korean exporters a competitive advantage. A formal agreement on currency would be unprecedented — but it wouldn’t have teeth, because it would include no enforcement mechanism.

The U.S. trade deficit in goods with South Korea — nearly $23 billion last year — widened after the original pact took effect in 2012, one reason Trump has denounced it. Trade in autos has been especially lopsided: South Korea last year exported to the United States 929,000 passenger vehicles worth $15.7 billion. By contrast, the U.S. shipped to South Korea fewer than 53,000 autos, worth just $1.5 billion, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

The United States says South Korea has used non-tariff barriers, such as rigorous customs inspections, to block U.S. products.

Trump’s complaints about South Korean trade practices have caused friction between the two allies at a crucial time, as he prepares for a meeting with North Korea’s reclusive leader, Kim Jong Un.

Unions at South Korea’s two-largest automakers, Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp., have already blasted the new agreement for blocking access to the fast-growing U.S. pickup truck market. “It is a humiliating deal that accepts Trump’s strategy to preemptively block South Korean pickup trucks,” Hyundai Motor Company’s labor union said in a statement.  (read more)

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business News for an extensive interview with Maria Bartiromo.  The interview covers a wide spectrum of important topics attached to the U.S. economy and ongoing trade deals.  Two great video segments for the interview will get you up to speed on ongoing initiatives:

♦Segment #1 outlines the upcoming announcement of KORUS, the South Korea and U.S. trade deal.  Additionally, Secretary Ross discusses the steel and aluminum tariffs and how they enmesh in the larger objective of the ongoing trade negotiations with China:

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♦Segment #2 outlines more on the aluminum and steel tariffs; ongoing trade talks with Europe; efforts to renegotiate NAFTA, and the possibility of a deal being reached; Saudi Arabian investment in the U.S. and the Commerce Department plans to bring back a citizenship question in the 2020 Census.

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Worth noting the reaction to Maria Bartiromo at 02:45 of the video centered around the question of the “lefty winning in Mexico“, etc. It would appear, based on hidden grinning, the trade team is anticipating a socialist victory in the Mexican election which would likely end up with Mexico wanting to cancel NAFTA due to loggerheads with the U.S.

It is additionally likely Canada’s Chrystina Freeland would lose her NAFTA cohort Mexican Foreign Minister Ildefonso Guajardo. Through seven rounds of NAFTA talks Freeland and Guarjardo have tag-teamed against Ambassador Robert Lighthizer (U.S.).

National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro appeared on CNBC, prior to today’s massive U.S. stock market increase, to discuss ongoing trade initiatives.

U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer is currently conducting simultaneous bilateral trade negotiations with South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, China (way-points), Japan, Mexico/Canada (NAFTA) and the European Union.

The passage of the defense spending portion of the Omnibus bill ultimately means there will be increased demand for U.S. steel and aluminum within new defense equipment. The contracts within the procurement process will predictably require the use of U.S. parts.

Add the increase in defense spending with the pending global tariffs on steel imports, and the environment is created for foreign investment in domestic steel and metal manufacturing…. Then add into the mix the geopolitical economic relationship developed between India’s Prime Minister Modi and President Trump… And you discover the backdrop for this announcement from India owned JSW Steel:

(Reuters) – India’s JSW Steel Ltd said on Monday it would spend $500 million to build out its U.S. operations in Texas, amid heightened global trade tensions following U.S President Donald Trump’s decision to pursue steep import tariffs.

The company has signed an agreement with the Texas governor’s office, under which the governor has approved a grant worth $3.4 million to the company’s unit, the steelmaker said in a statement here.

The unit, JSW USA, sells high-quality carbon plates to the energy, petrochemicals, defense and other heavy equipment industries.

The company will use $150 million of the funds to improve and modernize its plant in Baytown, Texas, while the rest will fund a new facility, it said.  (read more)

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Remember, a key part of MAGAnomics is changing the investment dynamic where the ‘best play’ is to invest in the U.S.

The entire landscape of modern geopolitics is an assembly of various nations specifically focused on their economic interests.  Fundamentally, the economics of a nation is the cornerstone for their ability to hold, advance, influence and present their ideology.

Without the underlying economic capability to provide sustainability and stability, the nation, any nation, cannot maintain itself regardless of the underlying political outlook.  In short, as the old verse presents: “money makes the world go ’round“.  Everything boiled down to it’s essential core – is about economics.

The shock to the system of modern multinational financial interests was created by an earthquake known as Trump; which created a seismic shift via the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome.

The tectonic political and economic shift was so unsettling to the global elites -who created a decades-long system of global financial interests- they have been thrashing around desperate to regain footing ever since.

All modern political alliances are based on this economic reality, and every single action taken by every member within each grouping is based on their affiliated and interconnected self-interest in the underlying economic equation.

At first, every nation positioned themselves to push-back against a realignment in geopolitical power based on the nationalistic economic shifting created by U.S. President Donald J. Trump.  However, as time progresses, and the clear strategy of President Trump begins to take shape, allies and adversaries have begun to accept that POTUS Trump is not going to retreat.  Access to a $20 trillion U.S. market is the biggest economic leverage in the world.

It doesn’t matter which continent you point to. If you pull back to the larger view and overlay the economic maneuvering you will find the reason behind the strategic relationship always revolves around economics.  War or peace, it’s all about the economics within the equation.

If you scale market economies on a linear continuum according to freedom (size of government in their economic market), and line up the individual nations as flags according to their political outlook on the same linear scale, you will quickly see how the groups cluster in both political ideology and similar economics. [Big government communist nations cluster together; big government socialist nations cluster together; and smaller government fair markets cluster together.] It has always been thus.

The scale of market freedom, in direct proportion to the wealth of the individual within each nation, is the one constant in an ever changing universe.

This is the essential issue with global trade agreements which seek to enjoin free/fair market nations within larger trade deals that also encompass more socialistic political forms of governance. It simply doesn’t work. Generally speaking the free/fair market nations get screwed because they are forced to acquiesce to the insufferable dictates -and rules- of the big government institutional nations. (TTIP and TPP examples)

President Trump has assembled economic SME’s (Subject Matter Experts)to deal with this geopolitical dynamic.  Each person specifically skilled to navigate this complex network of internal interests.  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer, AG Secretary Sonny Perdue, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and more recently Trade Adviser Peter Navarro.

Each cabinet member has a role within the larger dynamic that is a policy of economic patriotism benefiting the U.S.A.

New trade deals are being negotiated; NAFTA (Canada and Mexico), Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, ASEAN nations, and then China and the EU [with U.K. coming as soon as Brexit negotiations are complete].

All of the currently visible political alliances, like those witnessed within the G20, are based on their positioning for these upcoming trade deals.  Every supportive or antagonistic expression by each of these nation states is directly tied to their positioning for trade leverage and negotiation with the U.S.

The MSM will sell visible and spoken differences of opinion, differences of political ideologies, and newly formed alliances around a narrative of nations being anti-Trump.  The media like to focus on the cult of personality to create their discussion segments; but that’s nowhere near the full measure of what’s behind international alliances. The actual motives are the underlying economic determinations within each nation.

It has been so long since U.S. economic power was used to the benefit of the U.S., there’s an entire generation that has no concept of this underlying reasoning for national friendliness, or lack thereof, toward each other.  We have given away so much national economic wealth many people have forgotten how to accumulate or compete for it.

The ‘We-Are-The-World‘ type leftist globalism (fair share economics) has been pushed for so long, that many people have completely forgotten what it looks like when nations look out for their own unique economic best interests, and actually strive to achieve them.

Heck, many younger Americans may never have seen the competition at all.

Economic competition, territorial economics, is what drives each nation to excel and innovate.  The unexpected aspect, buried by almost all media, is how President Trump is empowering all nations to reevaluate their trade status by confronting a global trade system that was diminishing sovereignty.

And the WINNING is the best part of M.A.G.A !

“KORUS”

Perhaps as early as this week we should anticipate hearing about completion a significant trade agreement with South Korea.  The deal is known as “KORUS” (KOR+U.S.), and has been in negotiations for over a year.

Part of the recent agreement within the auto-sector of the deal, between Moon Jae-in and President Donald Trump, via Lighthizer and Ross, is an exemption of U.S. steel tariffs for South Korea in exchange for a doubling of U.S. auto exports; from 25,000 to 50,000 American made cars, per U.S. automaker, per year.  (link)

The results within KORUS exhibit the intended outcome of the global tariff proposal from President Trump as leverage to enhance the administration policy of reciprocity.  The world is taking notice, and China is now beginning to signal their understanding of President Trump leading the international discussion of reciprocal trade.

The unspoken background is that all nations, who have acquiesced to the overwhelming demands of China’s trade position, are now beginning to reassess the value of President Trump confronting the equation head-on.  Ultimately it is beginning to sink-in that all nations can benefit from correcting a trade imbalance within their own position.  In essence, U.S. President Trump is moving the entire global trade dynamic.

The timing for a U.S. leveraged KORUS deal could not be better.  On the geopolitical stage President Trump, through his sheer will, has thrown open the doors to a denuclearized Korean peninsular and is about to engage in direct discussions with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The ramifications for peace on the Korean peninsular, and the economic outcomes therein, are seismic for South East Asia.  Thus we see today stunning reports of Kim Jong-un heading to Beijing for discussions of unknown substance.

There is no doubt both Kim Jong-un (DPRK) and Chinese President/Chairman Xi Jinping must engage in talks about the ramifications.  China has long used the DPRK as a proxy province for their own geopolitical strategy against the U.S. and western interests.

POTUS Trump using economic leverage to break down the walls of totalitarian regimes is a stunning position for two nations (China and DPRK) who must have thought such an action would be unconscionable a mere eighteen months ago.

Incredible times of jaw-dropping consequence.  Because, ‘His Excellency’ Trump.

The Era of the Economic Titan is Back!

PS. A U.S./South Korea trade deal enhances the backdrop, and leverage, of U.S. position toward NAFTA. Canada and Mexico have aligned with the TPP multilateral trade deal.  POTUS Trump is negotiating bi-lateral deals with nations within TPP (Japan, Australia, Vietnam, South Korea all ongoing).