A Bear Market is Not Likely in the Most Hated Bull Market in History?


Well here we go again. These people who claim to be experts are warning that it is the fallout from the global coronavirus outbreak that has caused the crash and one says this could be “worse than the financial crisis” of 2008. Another claims to have forecast the 2008 Financial Crisis is now saying the idea of a major global recession “doesn’t sound too farfetched.” These people who always claim the market will crash then claim to have forecast the crash but only one out of 50 such forecasts are ever correct. They then also market themselves to please buy their newsletter because they were right.

The German top newspaper, Die Welt, commented on the stock market decline mentioning our perspective correctly February 28, 2020:

The crucial question for investors is now whether the stock market is drifting into a bear market, whether it is losing 20 percent or more, or whether there is a quick and strong recovery. Martin Armstrong currently believes a bear market is unlikely: “The rally that started in 2009 was the most hated rally in stock market history,” says the capital market expert from independent research firm Armstrong Economics.
Yes, I have forecast all the great crashes. That was actually the easy part. The difference in such forecasts sometimes go over everyone’s head. The 1987 Crash I forecast even that the market would fall basis the S&P500 futures from 286 to 181 in two days. True, that impressed even me. But the fact that the crash came on October 19th, 1987 which was the very day of the Economic Confidence Model confirmed what all my other models were screaming – we would make new highs by the peak of the ECM in December 1989. Both the NewYorker and even Bloomberg News had to admit that we correctly forecast the 1987 Crash.
That forecast may have impressed me, but what impressed the entire world was not forecasting the crash, but that the market would then make NEW HIGHS by 1989. Then what impressed our clients even more, was the fact that the December 1989 high not merely forecast that Japanese Bubble top, but that market would NOT make new real value highs, which was SUBSTANTIALLY a different forecast from the 1987 Crash.
As far as the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis, Barron’s commented on my forecast that the market would move back into a long-term bull market. They reported that ONLYbecause they thought it was nuts. Not a single US major financial newspaper would ever report this forecast, because they too filter the news. Overseas press will report, but not the American press. They prefer to put forth the fake forecasts for they are giving them the news they want to print.
So to all the people who ask why the press will never report our forecasts, all I can say is that it would upset the apple-cart. They are only selling media. They need people willing to talk all the time so they are usually the people who do not really have a serious business and are in constant search for new clients.

World Share Markets & the Mother of All Financial Crises


Armstrong Economics Blog/Stock Indicies

QUESTION: Marty,
Socrates has really been off the charts. I moved 401k and Roth money to cash in mid January and can not thank you enough!
In a private blog post in October, you showed the quarterly S&P with a possible high in Q1, and decline thereafter. Is it now possible that, given the directional changes this coming week, and in March, that the share markets could rise from here into 2021? That would also fit the quarterly array as well I believe. There are no other monthly directional changes after March on the array, and I think if this virus is overblown I don’t see how we go lower for a year from here unless this is truly end of days stuff. Can you ‘forecast’ 😉 what comes next?
Once again, thank you for your advice!
RK

ANSWER: I want to thank all the emails coming in with thanks for calling this correction, correctly. I am writing now the report on all the world share markets to provide the outlook into 2021. We are staring in the face the Mother of All Financial Crises and you always need the move in the opposite direction before pulling off what is the true direction of the markets.

What I hope to do is to prove to the world that this is not some random walk nor is the economy and markets play-things for economists and politicians. This is our future people are toying with. The negative interest rates have destroyed the central banks and nobody seems to have even figured that one out yet.

This is not some experiment to to allow people to try theories that are unsound. It is not just finances and money that is on the table of life. Everything flows from this right down to revolutions and war. As I have said, Marx’s theory to create Utopia, the cornerstone of socialism today, has been responsible for over 200 million deaths and counting.

While if I fail to wake up one morning, I would be relieved that I do not have to watch what these fools do and how history repeats without society ever learning a single damn thing. But I too have a family, an I fear for their future. I get to depart before so I have hope I can escape this madness. I would like to leave behind something to give them hope. Just maybe one day society will wake up and see the light at the end of the tunnel and understand that we have become addicted to repeating history and war.

When will we ever learn that we are all connected? Perhaps that is what the coronavirus will teach everyone how the global economy is interdependent

Will There be Coordinated Central Bank Action This Week?


The Coronavirus has been exploited by the press to unbelievable levels. Even hop on a domestic flight in the USA and the majority of people are wearing masks. Fed is being pressured to do a coordinated rate cut this week. We should see rate cuts in China and Hong Kong where the economy has been complete decimated. Our target weeks for action by central banks will be this coming week of March 2nd and March 23rd. Based on information and belief, the press has been told to knock this off. They are creating a global panic without justification just as they created the Spanish American War.

Politics & the Great Awakening


QUESTION: Marty; I understand you do not support either side in politics, but what happens if the Democrats split?

KW

ANSWER: The Republicans were opposed to Trump when he was elected. You had people like John McCain who refused to even allow him to speak at his funeral. Once upon a time, the Republicans and Democrats worked together after elections. Today, the hatred in politics is really beyond all belief.

Trump simply represented a threat to their very existence. But Trump wrongly listened to the Washington elite and brought in people who were the very problem like Bolton. Trump was naive from the standpoint that he was not one of the oligarchs who funded government to further his business. That was the bankers, press, and military establishment. All three have been his enemies ever since. They are the primary donors who have filled their troughs regularly. Trump was just a lowly real estate guy that really did not have direct influence in that field – it was mostly state and local.

The split in the Democrats is indicative of the philosophy shift. They have pandered to the socialist agenda assuming these people are stupid and would never hold them to the promises they have made. This is coming back to haunt them as Bernie leads the pack.

Yes, Biden won South Carolina. But he has all the charisma of watching grass grow. The Democrats have spent $1 billion for the primaries which the press loves, but Bloomberg is $500 million of that. Hillary tried to buy the White House, and Bloomberg will fail. He is probably the most dangerous person ever to run for President in either party.

The Democrats will split over this philosophy for you have the core of the Party will rig the game against Bernie. Do we see the rise in violence against the corruption of the Democratic Party or against Trump? It is true that the there is an element of the Democrats who have been brainwashed to hate Trump and I really do not see what he has done which has been such a threat. Bloomberg suspended the Constitution with his stop-and-frisk that any rational period should have known was illegal. Then Bloomberg outlawed 2 liter bottles of soda, and removed term limits because he refused to leave office. The decisions behind all three of these moves gives me serious pause about this guy. Neither Trump nor anyone else in either party has acted so arbitrarily.

The breakup of the Democrats is not something that becomes a win simply for Republicans. We are looking at a clash of philosophies and if Bernie does not win the nomination, this may be more of the spark to violence than the hatred against Trump.

I have said many times, my concern is what comes AFTER Trump. I do not see someone stepping up from the private sector with sound mind. Bloomberg is a demagogue who is highly dangerous. I think the split of the Democrats will cause an unstable political base that will also infect the Republicans.

The older generation is losing its grip. The Clintons will be gone for 2024. The entire playing field will start to change. From there into 2032 we should witness the disintegration of government for all the socialistic programs will become unsustainable. What happens then when the people who counted on those promises realize it is all a lie? Will this be the political Great Awakening

The ECM & the Market Crash


QUESTION #1: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
Might the current correction be the set up for the long awaited slingshot move?
Regards,
BE

COMMENT #1: I just wanted to say thank you. I sold out on the ECM and bought puts on the market. You just paid off my mortgage.

God bless you!

HJ

COMMENT #2: Marty, you are the only person who has the guts to make forecasts in the middle of a panic up or down. Your calls are beyond belief. No wonder the big boys call you.

KE

COMMENT #3: Hi Martin. Do you think the Fed and other Central Banks will cut rates due to the coronavirus and/or the market decline?
Socrates really helped me avoid this correction and even make some money.

Thank you.
AG

COMMENT #4: Hi Martin,
I don’t recall you ever commenting on the NYSE Composite Index. Just in case you don’t know. The all time high for the NYSE Comp Index is January 17, 2020. Right in sync with the ECM turn on Saturday Jan. 18. Most peoples focus is on the indexes that are tradable. So it is understandable that most people do not know the NYSE Comp index synced up perfectly with the ECM.
Perhaps you could mention this on your blog when commenting on the US stock market monthly closing today.
This weeks BIG down move will only increase your legendary status as the worlds top financial adviser.
Thank you so much for the private blog post last Sunday giving everyone a big warning of what was about to happen this week. The high for the week in the SP500 futures was last Sunday night at the 6 pm open.
Big Time Move Martin. Thank you from the bottom on my heart.
Sincerely,
DP

REPLY: The #1 golden rule is simple: What goes up, also comes down! Experience is something we gain through life. It is not easily acquired. We must make mistakes in order to gain knowledge. If someone wants to become an analyst, you must be in the game a long time to learn the twists the markets will always throw at you.

In the New Yorker Article on me back in October 2009, they wrote: “Armstrong remembers him coming out of his office in September 1998, two months after he’d got short in front of the ruble crisis. Monica Lewinsky was on TV. ‘My oscillators just turned,’ Armstrong announced. He booked his profits, pulled out of the market, and went to his beach house, on the Jersey Shore.” The 1998 turn saw the S&P 500 peak the very day of the ECM. That warned me that there would be a serious crisis and that became the Long-Term Capital Management debacle when the Fed bailed out a hedge fund.  The currencies peaked 8/17 and the games began in September.

Here we had the NYSE, and even the Dow peaked on the ECM, but the Dow followed the NASDAQ into its high which was due in February. Our Panic Cycles were due this week into March. What I have learned over the years is the real opponent is not the market — it is yourself! People always want to blame someone else for their loss. They will be the sort of people who are incapable of ever mastering the markets because they are incapable of ever learning from their mistakes. Always remember, you are battling against your own emotions.

I have come to LEARN that the harder it is to do a trade, the more likely it is absolutely correct. That statement in the New Yorker that I went to the beach after closing my short positions was not a celebration. It was discipline, for it was very hard to cover shorts and flip to a long position emotionally when the entire world says there will be no tomorrow.

 

The entire purpose of the Reversal System is to provide definitive levels in a market that is NOTdependent upon human emotion — mine or yours!

It does not matter if we are looking at 1987, 1998, 2007, or 2020. The numbers are the numbers. In the case of the 2007 ECM, the very day of the panic began on February 27, 2007. I have explained many times that I discovered the frequency from a list of international panics between 1683 and 1907 spanning 224 years with 26 events. The high in 2007 came intraday on October 11, 2007, which was 26.2 intervals of 8.6 days, or in other words it was fractal. However, the highest daily closing was two days before on 10/09, which made it precisely 224 days.

There are people who are so desperate to discredit the Economic Confidence Model and that remains a mystery to me. Are they the Flat Earth types that simply refuse to consider anything? Or are they paid for by “The Club” who are desperate to make money trading against the people and manipulating them at will? I really do not know. All I can do is say, “Hey look at the interesting order!” This proves the world is not just random chaos. There is a Secret Cycle or hidden order behind the curtain.

 

Insofar as the pressure on the Federal Reserve, we can see that pressure has been building in the form of the Repo Crisis into February. There is a Directional Change here with February and we should expect higher volatility in April/May where we have a turning point and a Directional Change. The entire Repo Crisis may begin to cause a severe crisis of confidence by the time we reach May/June.

Yes, this appears to be the beginning of a slingshot move

Corporate Profits to Decline into 2021?


QUESTION: You posted that there should be a recessionary trend starting here in 2020 even in the United States. Does that mean corporate profits will decline which impacts the stock market?

JB

ANSWER: Yes. I warned at the WEC that we were approaching a point where we could see a correction unfold in US equities. Corporate earnings should have peaked after a 19-year rally in 2019. There was a major spike rally into 2018-2019 that has been impacted by the Trump tax cuts and the corporate buy-backs so earnings rise in proportion to outstanding shares. There should be a two-year correction into 2021.

Our correlation models show that since we actually have global cooling, despite all the desperate manipulation of the data to create an average that is rising, temperatures have been declining where people actually live. This is serious for as the real temperature declines, the flu season gets worse. The last major flu epidemic was 1968 and that became a pandemic that killed more than 1 million people. The overreaction to this coronavirus may be an intentional manipulation of the economy as it undermining the economy. Cyclically, this is right on target. We have a Directional Change in 2021 and that is the next turning point. so I would expect we have seen the high in corporate profits and we have that correction unfolding into 2021

How to Redesign Government for the Next Generation post-2032


QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thank you for your great insights! We are thankful.
Often you have stated that you are happy that you do not have the age of 25, because of the chaos and economic crises coming ahead. Unfortunately, many of us (just like me) are 25 years old at this point in time. What advice do you have for us? How to build up a life? Where to go in life? Especially for those in Europe (for me in the Netherlands) are desperately in need for advice.
Thank you in advance,
Kind regards,
NB

ANSWER: Life used to be simpler I suppose. Governments were perhaps not as aggressive. Everything began to change from the 60s. But today, you can’t get on a plane without ID and you can’t freely take money someplace. The political world has gone insane and the hatred rising up is just astonishing. What is going on in Britain is an example of how Democracy is dead. People simply refuse to accept that their candidate has lost. Merely because a conservative posed with a bag of Yorkshire Tea, people are demanding a boycott of the product. It’s just a reflection as to how society is cascading toward a violent conclusion.

Unfortunately, we are entering a period of dramatic change politically. We are entering the final stages for the collapse of Marxist/Socialism. The year 1989 was the peak of the first 8.6-year wave in this cycle that ends in 2032. The conclusion of this cycle will bring a time for dramatic change where all the old systems are collapsing. The government has never been designed correctly post-World War II. I am trying to get this all out in a book for the average person. This will be a blueprint of how to redesign the government for the next generation when the time comes post-2032.

 

The Rich v Oligarchs


QUESTION: Hello Martin, You have said ‘the rich get richer by investing’; and as well, you’ve said ‘governments are always corrupted’. What history shows (and many of us have learned) is that ‘big money’ is especially adept at manipulating government for its own advantage. Currently, we call this ‘regulatory capture’. (This includes ‘judicial’ capture). The revolving door between corporate and government executive offices is obvious and historical. So I suggest that ‘the rich get richer by investing in corruption’ and suborning every possible corner of the body politic.

You have also said ‘ human nature never changes’. I could dispute that selectively from a religious point of view, but generally, I concur. However, since ‘big money’ understands human nature this is why it bankrolls/sponsors all manner of destructive lusty covetousness among the peoples of the world, (especially including borrowing to speculate) enabling it by easy credit-debt, using force of law, under threat of ‘assassination’, in one form or another, to collect.

You’ve also noted that Moses said “thou shalt not covet” your neighbor’s assets, though, particularly in relation to the principle of ‘socialism/Marxism’. However Moses also renounced, in the name of God, the practice of usury among people of the land, that is, in the body politic.

Also, you’ve mentioned the Mosaic law of the generational debt jubilee for all other kinds of debt in kind. Martin, to my mind, the first way of covetously accumulating capital is through pure force, theft and plunder by conquest, (yet wars must be ‘bankrolled’ too). In times of relative peace the debt-equity swap appears to be the fundamental and intentional principle of accumulation of capital, and, thus, ‘the business cycle’, the inner machinations of which are controlled, as much as possible, by lenders and their ‘legal’ contractual leverage. (Recall, for example, the Jewish ‘Shetar laws’ introduced into England after the conquest by William the Conqueror).

These things being said, and given the prospect of the ‘bankruptcy’ of the current political/economic ‘system’, I am particularly interested if you have any comment upon the super-priority of derivative contracts in business bankruptcy, not to mention, bail-in provisions of bank ‘reconciliation’, as established in various statutes. (Your recent posting of ‘1984 is Here’, and Orwell’s illumination of ‘oligarchical collectivism’ is apropos in exposing the historical link between financial/corporate oligarchy and ‘socialism’, the plantation mentality of mercantilism, etc..

It seems to me the ‘private wave’ is not necessarily something to be looking forward to, either, actually.) Many regards for your work, and thanks for holding fast to a humane heart. FCB, a Socrates subscriber. (By the way, the date of Jesus’ birth has been remarkably addressed in E.L. Martin’s 1991 work “The Star that Astonished the World”)

FB

ANSWER: I think sometimes I am not always specific in what I say because in my mind I have drawn a distinction that I have not articulated in words. As Einstein said, he thought in concepts, not words. That is a very true statement that has been largely ignored by most programmers who try to mimic the brain with neural networks. That is why IBM’s Watson was unable to find cures. As a programmer, I should know better. You really have to break down every single step in an action to be able to code it. How do you move your arm? It begins with a thought which then moves all the various elements for you to raise your hand up in a classroom.

That confession aside, when I speak of the “rich” who do not make money from wages but investments, I am not referring to the corporate organizations that are not single individuals but are honestly bureaucratic private replicas of government. I have attended board meetings of some of the largest public corporations in the world. I find them to be the same in structure as governments. I was called into a major auto company to resolve a $1 billion loss in hedging. They then referred me to a parent company that held stock in their corporation, for they had the same trade. The parent company had made hedging decisions at the board level and because they lost money by second-guessing their hedging decisions, they passed a resolution that once they took a hedging position, they would let it expire. By the end of the fiscal year, the two were merged to hide the $1 billion loss in the parent company.

There is a substantial difference between an individual who runs a small business and a major public corporation which has become bureaucratic. That is why Apple first removed Steve Jobs because he did not comply with bureaucratic procedures. When they then lost all creativity, they begged him to return.

Insofar as “human nature never changes,” once again I am not speaking of an individual but collectively as a society. We each have our own cycle in this journey for knowledge. If we are not complete fools who blame everyone else for their own mistakes (like Hillary), then we mature and learn from our mistakes. As children, parents inevitably warn their child not to place their finger in the flame of a candle. We all still do because we simply must experience that pain before we understand the power of fire and what it does.

I have also explained that there are no degrees you can get in trading. We all must be self-taught. The very concept of supply and demand was born in the mind of John Law (1671-1729). Since he was charged with murder for killing another man in a fair dual that was declared illegal, everyone else took advantage and plagiarized his discovery including Adam Smith. John Law gave birth to the concept of supply and demand because he was a trader on the floor of the first exchange in Amsterdam. There are some things you will NEVER discover unless you actually are involved in the experience.

Therefore, my statement that “human nature never changes” does not refer to an individual, for most intelligent people do not believe what they may have believed when they were a teenager. Mark Twain’s famous quote is spot-on: “When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.” There is even the quote of King Oscar II on how we are all socialists before 25 and become realists after 25 when we have to pay taxes.

You also mention that Moses renounced, in the name of God, as well the practice of usury. I have stated that we had usury laws up until Paul Volcker wanted to raise interest rates using Keynesian Economics to enable him to raise the discount rate to 14% in March 1981. Congress was eliminating usury laws by March 31, 1980. In order to fight inflation using Keynesianism, they never restored usury rates and thus they transferred a huge amount of wealth to bankers as they were now able to charge 20% on credit cards with no problem.

Private waves are inherently more volatile but the usury laws were all abandoned going into the peak of the Public Wave as the government was fighting for control. The government becomes much more aggressive and totalitarian during a Private Wave as they are losing power. But as they lose power, they ultimately turn against the very oligarchs who fed them to rise from the outset. The next financial crisis may not see Goldman Sachs walking on water. Politicians will turn against their benefactors to survive. This is typical during the final stages of the last 8.6-year wave within a Private Wave formation

Cycle v Free Will


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
You have said that everything has its own cycle and that somehow everything is connected to pi. To me this seems to fit nicely within a deterministic framework. Hence I am curious what your thoughts are on the subject of free will. Could you please elaborate?
Regards, E

ANSWER: We all have our individual free will. Society in a collective state produces the business cycle. As we move through life, we mature and change our thinking based upon experience. This is why there are always Democrats and Republicans. There are some who understand the business cycle and move with it, and others who act in a herd instinct. There is a difference between the individual and the collective cycle which we can call the business cycle.

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