The Panic Cycle in September A Warning for the Future


Posted originally on Oct 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

GCNYNF W Tech 10 4 24
DJIND M Tech 10 4 24

QUESTION: Marty, it appears that the September panic was on the upside, and it also appears to be a turning point. It looks like it may be a high in the Dow and Gold on a closing basis. I must say, it’s far easier to see now that this election may be the last. Does making a panic to the upside and a high dovetail into a war scenario you have been warning about for the election?

Kerry

ANSWER: I laid out the risks in gold on the private blog. Yes, the Panic was to the upside (see Glossary), and you are correct; this does not bode well for the near future. A Panic to the Downside would have provided a buying opportunity in October, but this pattern is sending up a red flare. A Panic to the Upside is a clear warning that the pattern unfolding is very serious, and it indeed includes the high probability of major civil unrest that will hurt domestic markets as nobody will accept the outcome. The problem we have is what I warned about throughout this year. There remains a risk that our Neocons fear a Trump victory and are pushing for war before the Election.

Israel attacked a Russian airbase under the pretense that Iran dropped off supplies there for Hezbolla. Our office in UAE has reported that Russia has warned all Russians to get out of Israel ASAP. Meanwhile, Russia is turning up the heat in Expanding in Ukraine. Zelensky sent a force to invade Russia in hopes that they would attack anything in NATO to claim Russia was the aggressor. Putin is not stupid.

Zelensky’s Victory Plan is to use long-range missiles to wage a full-scale war on Russia to destroy as much as possible prior to a NATO invasion. I have warned that Putin must reverse his position and take this war seriously as a NATO invasion or be overthrown by the Russian hardline Neocons. Our model targeted October for this, so we have just seen Putin reject peace negotiations. He has been forced to see reality. He has authorized glid bombs launched from aircraft, but he may also use the Father of All Bonds, which is the largest non-nuclear weapon that has the impact of a small nuke.

Our office in the UAE is reporting that while Israel attacked the Russian airbase, it seems like the people of Syria are split on whether they like Assad or not. The Kurds are against Hezbollah/Iran/Russia and were quite happy Israel took out Nazrellah. Iranian Khomani spoke to unite the Muslims against Israel. Our staff there commented that it seems like it’s going to kick off when Israel attacks Iran.

It’s a holiday in Israel this weekend, so it is normal to go quiet. However, Biden did respond to a question if attacking Iran’s energy facility is likely. He said he was in discussion with Israel, thereby confirming that the US is involved strategically. That was not very smart. That statement confirms to the Arab world that the American Neocons are involved.

Strait of Hormuz

The other side of this same coin is that Iran could also shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which would send energy prices sky-high in the West using oil as a weapon, as was the case during the 1970s. It was October 7th, 1973 when Iraq nationalized the holdings of the two U.S. oil companies operating in the Arab nation, Exxon and Mobil. They did so to show support for Egypt and Syria in their war against Israel.

1973 Oil Embargo ECM

This was 51 years ago.  Our models show that Crude is likely to press higher, but it will be in 2025 when we see the annual level become a grave issue. We may see a crisis in energy by March 2025 becoming obvious.


Glossary

Panic Cycle – Normally, a Panic Cycle is something that will exceed the previous high and penetrate the previous low. It will traditionally take out both previous session events. However, it can also be just an extreme move in one direction, which is often indicated by opening above the previous high or below the previous session low.

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UPDATE: USMX and Dock Workers Negotiate to the Strike Deadline


U

Posted originally on the CTH on September 30, 2024 | Sundance 

On one side you have the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA), which represents 50,000 East and Gulf Coast dockworkers.  On the other side you have the U.S. Maritime Alliance, or USMX, an organization bargaining on behalf of the port owners, container owners and corporations.  In a few hours the ILA is scheduled to strike against USMX.

A late breaking development:

[SOURCE] – [pdf Specifics]

I am not sure how this is going to eventually end but suffice to say at least a one-week strike is built into the current dynamic.  I doubt any last-minute negotiations will stop that from happening, but you never know.

Below is a video reflecting the firm position expressed by ILA President Harold J. Daggett, who represents the interests of the workers.  There are many who may not like the tone or expressed strike intent of Mr Daggett; however, given the nature of modern corporatism as it stands, what workers have been doing hasn’t been working to change the dynamic.

Here is the full video interview:

East Coast Dock Workers Scheduled to Strike Starting Tomorrow


Posted originally on the CTH on September 30, 2024

First, my perspective for new readers.  I generally support private sector labor unions. I did not always support them.  I do not support public sector unions, nor the leadership of most labor unions in general who politicize their activity.  In our modern era, the baseline for organized labor to support the interests of their blue-collar workforce is valid.

Against the backdrop of the larger geopolitical dynamic, I would make the case that, similar to the solidarity movement of the mid 1980’s, organizing the general workforce is going to be the last-resort backstop measure to block ideological western government and corporate intentions.

Populism, nationalism and MAGA specifically, needs a unity alliance with organized private sector labor.

I also believe President Trump sees the looming importance of this relationship as made visible by his support for the Teamsters union during the RNC convention.

Consider what we witnessed and endured with the forced worker vaccination programs of 2021.  I do not like the idea of politicized labor but contemplate how organized labor could have been used to pushback against the diminishment of liberty. There is a potential for value; thus, I evaluate organized apolitical labor as a potential pragmatic ally.

That said, let us discuss the looming strike by The International Longshoreman’s Association, which represents 50,000 East and Gulf Coast dockworkers.

There are a lot of economic impacts that can be created by a dockworker strike; they range from inconvenient to severe depending on the industry and sector therein.  With the U.S. manufacturing base diminished, imported goods now represent the system to deliver essential products into our nation.

Example: Within the network of essential goods, refined fuel is a critical component.  I am not sure how the Port of Tampa and Port of Everglades would be impacted, but most fuel deliveries into Florida come from these two ports. I would consider fuel a vital and essential product.  Stop the offloading of fuel and things can get sketchy quickly for the Florida economy.

On a global scale, stopping the export of USA generated Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) could be a potential problem for Europe. The EU is now dependent on non-Russian energy stores, the USA exports are a component of those needs.  The U.S. Maritime Alliance, or USMX, an organization bargaining on behalf of the dockworkers’ employers, claims that only 25,000 workers will be impacted by the likely work stoppage. I don’t think we quite know which sectors would be most affected.

On the agricultural side, deliveries of perishable imports like bananas would likely lead to almost immediate price increases if those products were stopped.  However, the USA produced farm products would likely drop in price if exports stopped and could potentially offset any increase in import price for agriculture goods at retail.  Again, bottom line – no one is sure the impact.

♦ One angle is predictable.  If there are shortages of goods that create problems for those in politics, hurricane Helene will likely be used as an excuse for supply chain disruption.  It will be difficult to gauge the accuracy of any deflective claim.  The ability to deflect this scenario, it’s not the ports – it’s the bridges and roads, can be exploited by the Biden administration.

The Wall Street corporations have a narrative to push, represented by ABC News:

[…] A strike lasting a matter of months could cause a shortage of raw materials that brings some manufacturing activity to a halt, leading to layoffs at affected plants as well as in related industries such as shipping and logistics, some experts said.

“If there aren’t shipments to pick up, it would have a boomerang effect across the whole nation,” Bill Stankiewicz, owner of Georgia-based logistics consulting company Savannah Supply Chain, told ABC News.

At the heart of a potential disruption, shortages of parts would prevent manufacturers from assembling and shipping out final products, Miller said. The auto sector would be heavily impacted but the slowdown would affect “all types of industries,” he added.

“If you start having a very extended strike you’ll be looking at temporary layoffs because plants can’t get their parts,” Miller said.

Kamins echoed concern about manufacturing workers. Still, such an outcome would only result from a prolonged strike, he said.

In 2002, a strike among workers at West Coast ports lasted 11-days before then-President George W. Bush invoked the Taft-Hartley Act and ended the standoff. However, the last time East and Gulf Coast workers went on strike, in 1977, the work stoppage lasted seven weeks.

“Conceivably, some manufacturing workers could be affected,” Kamins said. “That would be many months down the road. I’d be surprised if it gets to that point.” (LINK)

In the bigger picture, while we are unsure of the specific and/or granular impacts, I am cautiously optimistic the outcomes of a general labor strike by the longshoremen can be of benefit in solidifying the strategic value of an organized workforce.

There may be a time in the not-too-distant future when Americans as a whole need to repeat the approach of the Solidarity movement in order to defeat the enterprise of weaponized government intent on oppression.

All other attempts to raise valid grievances, stop insane policies, and demand a voice at the table have seemingly failed. President Trump represents our last effort for reasonable cohesion.

Last point, an awakened American public know President Donald J Trump could stop this labor conflict. WATCH:


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Canada Halts Digital Loonie


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

CBDC

Over 130 nations are attempting to create a digital currency as we move toward a cashless society. I recently explained how Australia is prioritizing a wholesale CBDC with a retail one to follow. The Bank of Canada recently shelved plans to create a digital Loonie, but rest assured this is a mere pause as the world will move to digitalization.

“The Bank has undertaken significant research towards understanding the implications of a retail central bank digital currency, including exploring the implications of a digital dollar on the economy and financial system, and the technological approaches to providing a digital form of public money that is secure and accessible,” the bank said in an email statement. The fact of the matter is that Canada simply could not determine how to execute a digital Loonie properly. The bank will now focus on “evolving” its payment system.

One aspect most nations are facing is that it would be easier, seamless even, if every developed nation agreed to go digital. But, more on that later.

Canada 50

The Bank of Canada released “The Role of Public Money in the Digital Age” in July 2024 to discuss the importance of creating a digital currency to “uniform money.” The central bank identified the following risks:

“Over that horizon, three interrelated and overlapping trends pose risks to the monetary system. First, the overall digitalization of the economy and financial system is increasing demand for digital payments. Second, due to the first trend and other conditions, use of cash has been declining at the point of sale for many years. The third trend is the emergence and proliferation of private cryptocurrencies and digital assets, including foreign CBDCs. These trends pose risks to the monetary system through three mechanisms: • increased potential that fragmentation of the monetary system could create inefficiencies • increased ability of issuers of private forms of money to exert market power • increased difficulty implementing timely and adequate regulation due to the rapid pace of change”

Unlike Australia, Canada sought to tackle retail immediately and stated cash was “no longer a viable payment option.”

The central bank recognized their legal right to have a monopoly over the money supply and noted that cryptocurrencies were threatening their overall power. Central banks DO NOT want people to use crypto as an alternative to their currency and will do everything to prevent it from happening. “When different forms of money (including alternative units of account) compete in a jurisdiction, users need to monitor both risks and exchange rates, and the resulting frictions provide scope for the issuers of these alternative forms of money to exert market power. Ultimately, these frictions and abuse of market power reduce the efficiency of the economy,” the report stated.

Now the central bank recognized it could not simply cancel the currency without public backlash. They fear that the public will use alternative payment methods, and so the plan was to slowly phase out physical money. “We do not suggest a “CBDC alone” approach. On the contrary, in the status quo policy, the availability of retail public money interplays with the evolution of the regulatory components of the monetary system to ensure their continued effectiveness.”

As I have stated countless times, money is whatever someone is willing to accept as payment, be it gold or seashells, as in ancient times. The public at large is not ready to accept a CBDC if they are presented with a choice. If Canada were to implement a digital Loonie, it would run the risk of people using other currencies or crypto to complete transactions.

IMF_Digital_Currency_to_Replace_the_Dollar

The bank said it will continue monitoring GLOBAL retail CBDC progress as all financial institutions await the moment when they can align their activities. This is why we see a heightened need for biometric data and digital identifications, which will one day tie into your financial accounts and you simply will not have a choice in digital or physical currency if paying on the grid.

Governments will become increasingly tyrannical as we move towards 2032 and the end of this private wave. The globalists’ ideal monetary system would entail one universal currency, similar to what the International Monetary Fund has been developing for years. Canada, an IMF member, has decided to await future global developments, but do not mistake this pause for a ceasefire in the war on cash.