Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 30, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
Many people have asked, “Why is 2032 going to be such a major change in the world’s political economy and society as a whole?”
We are confronted by the end of the Sixth Wave come 2032, which will be a profound economic and political change. It appears these world leaders are pushing us toward fulfilling the vision of Kalus Schwab and his distorted view of how society functions. While the first wave marked the collapse of Rome, 794 marked the collapse of the Nara period in Japan as the capital then moved to Kyoto. That would last until 1185 AD when government was overthrown, marking the birth of the Shogun Period (military general authority). The Great Seljuk Turkish Empire had its origins, with its first capital in 1037. By 1092, the Seljuk Empire was at its greatest upon Malik Shah I’s death and had captured most of the Byzantine Empire, creating the Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 in Constantinople. Alexius I (1081-1118AD) of Byzantium saw his empire carved up.
It was 1075 when the Investiture Dispute began, where the Pope opposed kings appointing bishops to control. He had to threaten the ex-communication of kings, which only concluded in 1103. This was the start of the separation of church and state. In 1084, Emperor Henry IV deposed Pope Gregory VII and installed the first Anti-Pope Clement III who then crowned Henry Holy Roman Emperor. A revolution in 1094 resulted in Pope Urban II overthrowing the Anti-Pope and Henry lost power over Italy. But by 1111, Henry V captured the Pope, forced his settlement, and then crowned Henry V as Holy Roman Emperor. By 1112, the Church splits between Papal and Imperial supporters.
The Balkans had been overrun by the Patzinaks who were a nomadic people of the Turkic family. Their original home is unknown, but during the 8th and 9th centuries, they inhabited the region between the lower Volga and the Urals. They then laid siege to Constantinople itself in 1090 AD. They led Alexius to ask for help from Venice, which began the First Crusade (1096–1099) where they took Jerusalem. But the Venetians were more interested in plundering Constantinople. Thus, 1104 marked the peak in the Byzantine Empire and by the Latin rulers who seized Byzantium taking control 1204-1261 AD. It wasn’t until 1298 when the reign of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire, began.
The financial crisis in France led to the default on loans to Italian bankers and the seizure of the Papacy itself moving it to Avignon in France known as the Avignon Papacy, also known as the Babylonian Captivity, which was period from 1309 to 1376. The French Anti-Pope seized the Knights Templars on Friday, October 13, 1307, to confiscate all their wealth and that of their clients. The Knights Templars had become the first real international banking system as they evolved following their founding around 1117/1118 AD, lasting for 22 waves of 8.6 years. This next wave also saw the Black Plague (1347-1351) wipe out 50% of the population, which then changed the economy by shifting it from serfdom in Europe to capitalism as wages began to take place because of the shortage of labor.
The next peak in the cycle 1413.75 marked the start of the religious revolution. In England, the Oldcastle Revolt was a Lollard uprising against both the Catholic Church and the English King Henry V. Oldcastle was influenced by Lollard cleric William Swynderby, who preached in Almeley during his youth. Lollardy was a politico-religious movement initiated by prominent theologian John Wycliffe during the 1370s. The Lollard beliefs dealt with their opposition to capital punishment, rejection of religious celibacy, and belief that members of the Clergy should be held accountable to civil laws. In addition, it was the rise of the iconoclasty, which took place in the Byzantine Empire, where they rejected ornamentation of churches, religious images, and pilgrimages. They objected to war, violence, and abortion. John Oldcastle led the revolt, and it took place on the night of 9/10 January 1414. The rebellion was absolutely crushed at the battle on St. Giles’s Fields. There was rising discontent in religion that manifested on October 31, 1517, when Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to the door of the Wittenberg Castle church in Germany.
This next wave peaked in 1723.35, not merely saw the Protestant Reformation impact region, but with the fall of Constantinople in 1453, scholars fled to Europe and Russia, taking the wealth of knowledge with them. By 1492, Christopher Columbus convinced others that the world was round and not flat based upon maps that came from Constantinople. While it would slowly expand the knowledge in Europe, the Age of Enlightenment is formally classified as being between 1715-1789, which really became the foundation for the next wave into 2032.
But this wave was the beginning of the crisis with a monarchy. Columbus was backed by Spain, which then became the new financial capital of Europe. But the mismanagement by the monarchy led to Spain becoming a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647, ending in a third world status by the end of this wave. King Philip V of Spain abdicated the throne in 1724 to go to a monastery.
In England, on October 17, 1722, the Habeas Corpus Act was suspended because of a Jacobite plot to take the thrown by a Catholic James III they called the Old Pretender, and Parliament prohibited journalists from reporting on political debates. From here on out, the tone for the next wave was set in motion. The rise against the monarchy. This was the wave of human rights and it moves into its culmination come 2032 with the rise against human rights and the attempt once more to suppress the people with the rise of authoritarianism. This is once more a major turning point, and we will face a dramatic change both economically and politically on a global scale.
The forthcoming “The Discovery of the Business Cycle” goes into the details of these waves throughout history with not merely political facts but also the rise and fall of the world’s monetary system.