Posted originally on the Conservative tree house on August 15, 2021 | Sundance | 281 Comments
Random and related stuff that might help make sense of the next few days, weeks and months as the Taliban retake control of Afghanistan.
(1) The Muslim Brotherhood. Already reports from Qatar that MB leadership is heading back into Afghanistan. This is predictable. The Muslim Brotherhood is the political umbrella for authentic Islam (ie. extremists). The Brotherhood supports the al-Qaeda regional affiliates including the Taliban, al-Nusra, and others. Qatar is the financial center of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Brotherhood is political Islam.
(2) China. Most people don’t realize that China shares a common border with Afghanistan and has issues with Islamic extremists and sympathizers. China has benefited from the U.S. in Afghanistan keeping the Taliban in check. A U.S. retreat now means China needs to engage with the Taliban to bolster their national security interests. China will establish diplomatic ties with the Taliban partly because Beijing uses duplicitous diplomacy as a strategy. [It ain’t because China likes the Taliban]
(3) Turkey. Unfortunately for Europe, Turkey is both a NATO member (stupid decision) and aligned in common cause with the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkish President Recep Erdogan has previously given safe harbor to the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood upon their exit from Qatar, when the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Bahrain) demanded Qatar stop supporting terrorists (the Brotherhood).
The EU will not want to recognize the Taliban, but Turkey most certainly will… regardless of what the EU wants, because Erdogan is aligned with extremist Islam. Europe is weak and always ends up acquiescing to the threats of Turkey; so don’t look for much other than pearl clutching from NATO members about it.
(4) Europe. As noted above, the EU doesn’t support Islamic extremism; however, the EU is now infiltrated with Islamic extremism, and the EU is too worried about cultural sensitivities to do anything about it. They will likely try another round of multiculturalism advocacy, which will likely end just like the last time with fracture and cultural crisis because the Islamic extremists attack, murder and rape too many EU people. It will be a mess again.
(5) Pakistan. The Pakistani government is already aligned in common purpose with the Taliban, and have been supporting them under the table the entire time the U.S. was in Afghanistan (See UBL compound etc). China has invested heavily in Pakistan and created reasonably strong ties. China needs the assistance of Pakistan to help leverage their need for regional national security from the Taliban in Afghanistan.
(6) Russia. Oddly Russia and the EU have the same outlook toward the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, where the EU is twisted in pretzel knots of political correctness, Russia is not. Look for Russian President Vladimir Putin to exploit his own interests in the EU via strength and a closer relationship. How? Because Russia can keep the Taliban and Turkey in check if the NATO members are blackmailed by Afghanistan and Erdogan.
*Note – NATO was formed to keep Russia in check…. and now we will likely watch Russia helping NATO keep their step-child, Turkey, in check. How’s that for some geopolitical irony?
Summary: Qatar (Muslim Brotherhood) will help the Taliban (al-Qaeda). China will form tenuous and conniving ties with the Taliban, likely relying on economics. Turkey will support the Taliban and look for help, eventually, to assist Erdogan re-attain the Ottoman Empire he lusts. The EU is stuck between Russia and a hard place (Turkey), and will likely end up on team Putin.
Joe Biden will eat jello…. and the leftists in the U.S. State Department will run to their proverbial Alamo, The United Nations.
Wait for it…