Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.
The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.
Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.
Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.
2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.
Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was once deemed the Donald Trump of his nation. In a similar fashion, the establishment has accused Bolsonaro of orchestrating a coup to retain power after the 2022 presidential election against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The people independently denied the results of the election and stormed government buildings a week after Lula was inaugurated. The Federal Police uncovered a draft of a coup announcement in former Justice Minister Anderson Torres’s home. After months of detainment, Torres maintained that the document, which he received from a private citizen, was taken out of context and held no legal validity. The plans outlined in the document never occurred, but the establishment maintains that Bolsonaro is a threat to Brazilian democracy.
As our computer warned, there would be intense, politically motivated civil unrest worldwide in November 2022. Ahead of the election, Brazil’s leftist opposition Workers’ Party (PT) Marcelo Arruda was enjoying his birthday celebration in the city of Foz de Iguacu, Parana, when he was shot dead. The vote of 49.1%-50.9% was the closest Brazilian presidential election history since 1985 and marked Bolsonaro’s first political defeat. Bolsonaro supporters held mass protests across the nation to protest Lula’s victory and blocked hundreds of major roadways. Bolsonaro first sided with the protestors, saying they felt “indignation and a sense of injustice.” The intense backlash from across the globe caused Bolsonaro to change course. “I know you are upset… Me too. But we have to keep our heads straight,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted online. “I will make an appeal to you: clear the highways.” Bolsonaro confirmed with Brazil’s Supreme Court that he would willingly hand over power to Lula. “I have always played within the four lines of the constitution,” he said, without declaring defeat. Bolsonaro is already barred from running for office until 2030. The establishment wants to ensure that he is never up for reelection.
This is the precise move that they attempted after January 6 with Donald Trump, who posted on Truth Social: “The only Trial that should be happening is a Trial by the Voters of Brazil – It’s called an Election. LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!” Trump has stated that he believes Bolsonaro is “a legal aberration (lawfare), a clear case of political persecution that is now obvious to anyone with common sense.”
As we head into 2032, the United States has shown the world that you can rig elections using criminal law. I reported how Argentina was bringing criminal charges against the opposition simply for saying, do not save pesos because the currency is collapsing. Thus, the government has turned that comment into a crime. In Brazil, the leftist government is desperate to stop former president Jair Bolsonaro, alleging that he was the mentor of “a wilful and premeditated coup attempt,” copying the US on its desperate attempt to imprison Trump on the January 6th nonsense, calling it an insurrection.
Lula was the establishment candidate. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a member of the World Economic Forum. His policies align with other WEF leaders and stand in stark contrast to Bolsonaro, who was hated by the globalists. Perhaps more importantly, Bolsonaro refused to align himself with the globalist neocons. He attempted to remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offered to host peace talks. Let us not forget Brazil’s strong economic ties to Russia. Also similar to Trump, Bolsonaro was the victim of a failed assassination attempt when he was stabbed in the abdomen during a political rally. Again, the deep state insisted the assailant was crazed and acted alone, bypassing all security measures to reach one of the most controversial political figures in the nation.
Our models for South America indicate potential civil unrest and even a Panic Cycle in 2025 in Brazil. Our target of 2023 for a Directional Change has appeared on time both in Brazil and in Israel. Brazil is divided like most countries today. The polarization is severe, and the government is desperate to maintain power. This is the total collapse of Republican forms of government as we head into 2032.
Attempting a coup in Brazil is punishable by up to 12 years’ imprisonment. Collectively, the charges against Bolsonaro could result in a prison sentence of up to 40 years, effectively barring him from reentering the political arena. Nations are no longer allowing people to vote for elected officials. It is too much of a risk as confidence in government has collapsed, and the people are increasingly eager to elect anti-establishment candidates who threaten grander plans.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The catastrophic flash flood in Texas claimed over 100 lives across six counties last Friday. Torrential rain caused the Guadalupe River to surge over 20 feet in a mere 90 minutes. Despite the area having a historic record of acute flooding, the climate zealots are blaming human behavior for a natural event.
Failed presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg has attempted to politicize the disaster by penning an op-ed in his paper entitled, “The Texas Floods Were Made Worse by Climate Denialism.” Bloomberg states that the government owes the victims’ families a sincere commitment to righting their deadly wrong, by tackling the problem they’ve turned their backs on for too long: climate change.” Later adding, “The refusal to recognize that climate change carries a death penalty is sending innocent people, including far too many children, to early graves.”
The same area of Texas experienced severe flooding in 1932, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991, and 1997. San Antonio/Central Texas experienced a catastrophic flood in 1921, with the San Antonio River flooding the following year and once more in 1998. The Blanco River experienced a significant flooding event in 2015. Unfortunately, the nearby terrain causes rapid rainfall to rush into the rivers and creeks. Clay-rich soil leads to poor filtration and high runoff during these events. The Guadalupe River Basin has been known as one of the three most dangerous places in the nation for flash flooding.
Nature abides by cycles. Yet, the leftist billionaire elite preach that humans are powerful enough to cause catastrophic weather events, despite there being absolutely no concrete evidence to support these claims. Bloomberg, one of the wealthiest men in America, is worth at least $104.7 billion and will not relinquish his seven private aircrafts or mega-yacht. Fox News reported that Bloomberg emitted 10,000 metric tons of CO2 during the 1,700 flights he took on his private aircrafts in a four-year period. Yet, he was appointed as a United Nations envoy for climate action since the globalist elite declare they have the authority to tell the people how to exist. These politicians do not actually believe the nonsense they spew.
Bloomberg has been in adherence with the World Economic Forum on the quest to eliminate the entire carbon sector by 2030. He has personal interests in forcing America onto the grid and eliminating fossil fuel usage. Climate change is one of the largest psyop measures in history that the media and politicians adamantly demand everyone accept as truth without evidence.
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
The Supreme Court has approved a request for intervention by the high court and blocked a lower level court ruling that stopped the Trump administration from reducing the size of government. In an 8-1 ruling [SEE HERE] with again only Ketanji Brown Jackson in dissent, the court has stayed the lower court ruling.
WASHINGTON – […] The Trump administration can move forward with plans to fire tens of thousands of workers across the federal government, the Supreme Court ruled Tuesday.
A judge in California had blocked the layoffs, finding that they would likely violate federal law. But the justices granted an emergency appeal from the administration seeking permission to enforce a Feb. 11 executive order that instructed agencies to carry out dramatic “reductions in force.”
In an apparent 8-1 ruling, the high court said it was not assessing the legality of any particular agency’s layoff plans, nor any moves taken so far to implement those plans. Litigation over the downsizing efforts is sure to continue. But for now, the justices said, the administration can enforce the executive order and a memo from the Office of Management and Budget implementing that EO.
The high court’s unsigned decision — which the majority explained in two terse paragraphs — lifts an injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Susan Illston, who had blocked 21 agencies from complying with the mass layoff orders.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was the sole member of the court to record a dissent. (read more)
Justice KBJ was a radical DEI implant operation conducted by the people around former President Obama. The people around President Obama knew how stupid and ideological KBJ was about constitutional law when they organized her ascension plan. Stupidity was a feature of their agenda, not a flaw. She is an embarrassment to the court and to our nation.
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
They are not really good at this.
According to Fox News, “two sources described the FBI’s view of the duo’s interactions as a “conspiracy,” which could open up a wide range of potential prosecutorial options.”
(VIA FOX NEWS) – Former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey are under criminal investigation for potential wrongdoing related to the Trump–Russia probe, including allegedly making false statements to Congress, Justice Department sources told Fox News Digital.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe referred evidence of wrongdoing by Brennan to FBI Director Kash Patel for potential prosecution, DOJ sources told Fox News Digital.
The sources said that the referral was received and told Fox News Digital that a criminal investigation into Brennan was opened and is underway. DOJ sources declined to provide further details. It is unclear, at this point, if the investigation spans beyond his alleged false statements to Congress.
As for Comey, DOJ sources told Fox News Digital that an investigation into the former director is underway, but could not share details of what specifically is being probed.
The full scope of the criminal investigations into Brennan and Comey is unclear, but two sources described the FBI’s view of the duo’s interactions as a “conspiracy,” which could open up a wide range of potential prosecutorial options. The FBI and CIA declined to comment. (read more)
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
President Trump holds an almost two-hour cabinet meeting in front of the media where he and other cabinet secretaries take questions from the assembled press pool in the cabinet room. Full video below. WATCH:
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