Posted originally on Aug 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
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From the intricate dance of sovereign debt to the rise and fall of empires, this book explores Armstrong’s groundbreaking Economic Confidence Model and its implications for the past, present, and future. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, a history buff, or someone seeking to make sense of today’s complex world, this book will challenge and inspire you.
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QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said that the market would make new highs by 1989. You did the same in 2009 even Barrons reported that call that the market would make new highs when everyone else was calling for a depression.
Others claiming to be analysts hate you because they do not have the trading skills you display, in addition to Socrates. When you said the low would be April 7, I spoke to many people who laughed and said No way. When I talked to others I met at your Conference, they said never be on the opposite side of a call like that.
Was this your Scheme Frequency Model that you refuse to publish because governments could abuse it to topple governments? Or was this your cyclical stochastic that I notice with hindsight went to zero the day before?
Care to give us a hint?
Jef


ANSWER: These calls to the day have been the Scheme Frequency, not the Stochastic. Nonetheless, you can use the Cycle-Infused Stochastic, which differs for each market as the computer determines the frequency mix. The short-term Blue in the Stochastic hit ZERO the day before. With hindsight at the end of the day, the Blue turned up confirming the forecast was correct. But the April 7th forecast was made well before.
The Array was published on the Private Blog on April 7th, along with a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle the very next day, which should have been to the upside. There are 72 separate models in this Array. Neither the Scheme nor the Economic Confidence Model is included. Three computers are analyzing every market, from trading patterns to various definitions of volatility, including intraday and overnight. The top line represents the aggregate meaning, which is the sum of 72 models. The accuracy is (1) no human opinion or emotion, and (2) it is a correlation of analysis rather than a single model or one that requires human opinion, like Elliot Wave, where two people using the same theory reach different conclusions.
Look, I am sorry, what should have been a discovery for the betterment of humanity was a target for power. What I discovered will die with me. I cannot allow them to get their hands on it. When the CIA asked me to build the model for them, I offered to run whatever study they wanted. Their response was – They had to own it.
Crossfire Hurricane was the code name for the counterintelligence investigation undertaken by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from July 31, 2016, to May 17, 2017. It was when FBI director James Comey raised suspicions of obstruction of justice, which triggered the Mueller investigation. James Comey was the head of the DOJ in NYC, who was keeping me in contempt indefinitely until the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on. Then they had to release me. My case centered around the attempted regime change they were orchestrating to seize control of Russia, which I refused to participate in. Then Comey even “interviewed” Hillary and took no notes, so she could never be prosecuted. The FBI always takes notes in a proffer session. Then, was Comey involved in Crossfire Hurricane? I believe Comey was well aware of what was going on in NYC.
I was kept in prison without even a description of a crime. Ask any lawyer if this was legal. There is no rule of law in the United States. Justice is spelled “JUST US” and you are a fool if you think they give a shit about anything other than their own power. They circumvent Congress, and most judges do whatever the government tells them to order. They tortured me. They throw you in a cell that is so hot, underwear is too much. Then they throw you in a cell that is so cold you can see your breath with nothing to keep you warm. Because the courts claim that torture is defined as leaving a mark on your body, so anything they do, like waterboarding, is not torture.
Torture is defined under U.S. law (18 U.S.C. § 2340) and the UN Convention Against Torture as severe physical/mental pain or suffering intentionally inflicted. Waterboarding (simulated drowning) has been prosecuted as torture by the U.S. itself (e.g., post-WWII trials of Japanese soldiers). However, when the Neocons employed it under the Bush administration, OLC memos argued waterboarding was not torture if “properly limited.” These were withdrawn in 2009 and deemed “legally flawed” by the DOJ.
In Padilla v. Yoo (9th Cir. 2012), which was a case regarding legal immunity for John Yoo (author of OLC memos), the court avoided ruling on waterboarding’s legality. Still, it included a footnote (dicta) stating:
“We have no occasion here to decide whether waterboarding constitutes torture… even if it could be torture in some circumstances, it was not torture as applied to Padilla.”
When Judge Lawrence M. McKenna attempted to protect me, the DOJ then went to the Chief Judge to have my case taken away from him, as he had refused to recuse himself at the government’s request. The court sealed the docket, and they refused to explain how they could remove a judge in violation of Due Process of Law, with no information revealed as to how. I believe it is sealed because this was all about national security. Under US law, this is supposed to be illegal. They do not care about the rule of law when the government wants something. They could not deny Free Speech, so they call on YouTube, Facebook, etc., and have people removed or have their accounts shut down by banks.
They then gave my case to Judge John F. Kennan, who then denied all discovery despite a court-appointed accountant stating the government refused to turn over evidence for 7 years. They were using my accounts for money laundering post trades that were not mine and then backing them out to different accounts the next day. Judge Kennan, along with Judge Peter Kevin Castel, ensured that I had no rights, not even human rights, let alone constitutional rights. The court-appointed lawyer, David Cooper, refused to file an appeal, I believe, to protect the government that had instructed him not to do so. Court-appointed lawyers lose 99% of the time because they should never be trusted – they are pawns in all cases. Even General Flynn discovered how a hired lawyer will not defend you, as shown in his documentary. Even Trump could not remove a judge. Absolutely nobody will dare investigate my case because they know what it would expose.
To make the movie “The Forecaster,” they must have insurance against slander and libel. They had to prove that the government was after the model, and they slipped up by putting it in writing. When they torture you, their way to survive is to take their power away. You must lose all fear of death. People think that imposing the death penalty for a crime is the worst punishment. They understand nothing. There are things far worse than death – being tortured for the rest of your life every day, but never enough to kill you or leave a mark on your body so they can pretend to be honorable and respect human rights.
I have seen the true colors of the real beast. I said before, I will die with the Schema Model. They will abuse it and use it to achieve regime change, which I was in the middle of as they tried to take control of Russia in 2000. That is why Hillary created the RussiaGate Affair, and I question if Attorney General Pam Bondi or anyone in the Trump Administration would dare to investigate my case, for it would expose the Neocons and that they were trying to seize control of Russia, installing their puppet Boris Berezovsky, whose own bodyguard said he never committed suicide – he was killed by MI6. I believe the truth has its limits.
BTW, the company they wanted me to invest $10 billion for this regime change was Hermitage Capital Management owned by Edmond Safra, who I believe the CIA killed in Monaco, and Bill Browder who just so happened to have been the right-hand man of Robert Maxwell (1923-1991) – the father of Ghislaine Maxwell the girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein who ran the biggest blackmail operation perhaps in history for who? People think it is a list of pedophiles. RIGHT!. It is a list of victims, and the real question is what they did on the orders of Epstein and for whom?
Robert Maxwell was linked to Mossad, and his death in 1991 also coincided with the fall of the USSR. I believe he was part of the manipulation club and lost a few hundred million pounds trading with the pension funds of the employees. He magically fell off his yacht before having to testify. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances just before he was due to testify about missing funds from his companies’ pension schemes. On November 5, 1991, his body was found floating in the Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands, where his luxury yacht, the Lady Ghislaine, had been anchored. He was reportedly facing serious legal consequences, including possible fraud charges, and was due to testify before UK regulators. Whenever I was asked to join the “club,” I said, “I do know how to swim.”
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell reportedly met in early 1991 in New York before her father died. There is so much more to the Epstein affair, but they keep everyone focused on pedophiles rather than on the blackmail and real motives and who was truly pulling the strings.
Jeffrey Epstein attended Robert Maxwell’s funeral in 1991. Epstein had financial and social ties to Maxwell and his family. Epstein’s presence at the funeral is documented, and it underscores his early connections to powerful figures. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances after falling from his yacht, Lady Ghislaine (named after his daughter). Robert Maxwell had long been the subject of speculation regarding possible connections to intelligence agencies, including Israel’s Mossad. While no definitive proof has been made public, several credible reports and investigations suggest that Maxwell had significant ties to Israeli intelligence. I covered my investigation of this in the Plot to Seize Russia.
Cat
One company has been looking to one of the world’s oldest professions to gauge the state of the economy—sex work. “The ‘stripper index’ is an unconventional economic indicator that correlates changes in sex work revenue, such as escort pricing, strip club tips, and related search interest, with broader economic cycles,” Erobella states on its website. “It operates on the premise that sex work, being a discretionary luxury, is among the first sectors to feel the pinch during economic downturns.”
Now this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but everything does, in fact, operate on a cyclical basis. We have those who look at the pizza index for signs of geopolitical turmoil in Washington, and lo and behold, there is some form of a correlation.
Oddly, the creators believe that “economic confidence” is directly tied to the price men are willing to pay for these services. They claim that there was a downturn in searches for sex work ahead of the 2022 downturn, and yet another downturn in searches for “escort” around New York City ahead of the 2008 crash. “Sex work is the ultimate discretionary spend,” it notes. They also stated that cash payments are the primary driver of this industry, causing the industry to be particularly sensitive to downturns ahead of the headlines.
The creators of this unconventional gauge believe that June’s data indicates signs of trouble ahead, with all sex worker-related metrics declining. They found that escort pricing across the UK has declined, and Google searches for “escort” are notably down. Sadly, there is an increase in new hires in the industry as well.
The New York Post also noted that websites such as OnlyFans experienced a decline in revenue during 2022 at the height of inflation.
I would not use this index as a gauge for the economy; it’s more of an interesting concept. Indeed, discretionary spending is the first item to decline ahead of economic downturns. This is one of countless signs that confidence is declining, and consumers are not willing to spend frivolously on extracurricular items to say the least.
We’re pleased to announce that the next World Economic Conference will be held in:
Orlando, Florida on November 21– 23, 2025
As many of you know, the WEC is not your typical financial conference. It’s where we bring together minds from around the world—investors, analysts, and policymakers—to explore how capital truly moves across borders, markets, and cycles. This is your chance to understand what Socrates sees ahead before the rest of the world catches up.
Tickets go on sale to the public on Tuesday, July 29.
These events typically sell out quickly, and with growing global demand and virtual attendance now available, we recommend acting early. Whether you’re attending in person or online, this year’s WEC promises crucial insight into where we stand on the Economic Confidence Model—and where we’re going.
Stay tuned for more details!
We look forward to seeing you in Orlando.
C
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.
The 80-year theory, also known as the Strauss–Howe generational theory, posits that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that culminate in a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864, the year of the US Civil War. Taking it back even further, we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.
Now, absolutely everything is connected, and garnering the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint, as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.
The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity, amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave, 1878, saw the Long Depression, which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35, which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.
Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted profoundly, altering nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave is expected to be in 2032, and this will be followed by a shift in economic power from the West to the

QUESTION: Marty, your model on volcanoes had correctly forecast this surge in activity in the Ring of Fire for 2025. Do you view this as part of the warning that we are headed into global cooling, rather than warming? Why does the media refuse to highlight all the correct events your computer has been able to forecast when nobody else comes close?
AP
ANSWER: This has been my concern. Climate News just reported: “The Pacific Ring of Fire has witnessed an alarming surge in seismic activity throughout 2024 and early 2025.” I have tried to help society, but those who opposed me cannot even now admit that what they were doing was taking control of the computer by sheer force. I reported back in 2022 that the low would be in 2019, which was the point from which the activity would begin to rise. As you see, we have a string of Directional Changes into 2030. However, take a close look and you will see a Panic Cycle in 2031.
I’m sorry, these climate experts offer personal opinions. It takes an objective viewpoint to see what honestly lies ahead in this journey we call life. The media will never report on what Socrates has done. It would discredit everything they have been saying for years.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, why is it that the press and academia are not beating down your doors when you are the only one who had forecasted a recession into 2028 years in advance? I can only assume that this is a deliberate conspiracy to prevent others from understanding that the world economy is not random and, as you say, it’s all a confidence game. Do you think this is a conspiracy against you, aimed at preventing you from educating society?
HL
ANSWER: Yes, it is a conspiracy insofar as they do not want people to see that the economy is ordered and not random chaos. Here is Larry Summers saying that if you could forecast the future, then it would be self-fulfilling, which is how they view me. I even had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission file a complaint against me, demanding that I turn over a list of all my clients. They told the court that I was manipulating the world economy, and if I turned over my client list, they could prove it. My lawyer asked the court where the statute was that said I could not manipulate the entire world right down to his salary. He agreed, laughed, and denied them their crazy subpoena.
What’s at stake here? You vote for a politician who promises to solve a problem that they cannot. Democrats cannot blame Trump’s tariffs if the economy is turning down with or without his tariff war. WE are headed into war as the computer forecast because these people are on the verge of collapse. They need war as a decoy to blame Putin, just as Biden blamed Putin for the rise in gasoline prices when it was Biden who imposed the sanctions, not Putin. They MUST go to war for 72 years of borrowing with no intention of paying anything back, is now bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The people in Europe will be storming the Parliaments with pitchforks, for they have ordered that, on average, 70% of pension funds must hold “safe” government debt. A sovereign default wipes out private pensions.
I put out the ECM, and it forecasted a peak in May 2024, from which we would turn down into a recession that would not bottom until 2028. This is not my opinion so it cannot be my influence. Those against me claim I am too influential, and that is why the forecasts are correct. Otherwise, they have to admit everything from Politics to Keynesian Economics is wrong. It cannot be that they are wrong; it must be that I am the problem. Human Nature has a very dark side, and I’m tired of being their target practice.
I had a good conversation with Paul back in 1999. He told me I was correct. The business cycle was about 8 years. Even the previous Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, who presided over the collapse of Bretton Woods, concluded that the Business Cycle always wins. They have done everything they can to shut me up. I even survived the orchestrated attempt to assassinate me. I woke up from that coma to their dismay, and sometimes I wish I had not.
The entire sales pitch behind socialism is that you need government because ONLY they can bring ORDER to the CHAOS of randomness. As I have said, in physics class, they stated that nothing is random, and in economics class, they claimed that everything is random, so the government can manipulate society to eliminate recessions and depressions. But if the ECM is correct, then the BS they espouse cannot be accurate.
COMMENT: Marty, you have shown that capital flows shift, and the computer has been able to predict wars by monitoring the entire world. The forecasts on Crude were unprecedented. I just had to remark how your computer handled this entire 12-day war and its cyclical forecast with your arrays. It is so apparent why so many want to know what Socrates is projecting. What you say that you stumbled on this unintentionally still deserves more than a Nobel Prize. While people sensationalize stories to get clicks, only Socrates handled this event correctly without fanfare.
Thank you for the education.
BB
REPLY: Yes, the Crude market did illustrate that the economics and markets were not matching the sensationalized reports. The May 5th turning point picked the low, then three Directional Changes created the sideways consolidation for three weeks. The Panic Cycle, the week of June 9th, targeted the breakout and the June 13th Israel attack of the three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development to decapitate the government. It did not show a continued trend.
This is the opening to one chapter. I am trying to finish the book on the Economic Confidence Model and the Geometry of Time. There is a specific order hidden behind the veil of randomness, and our most significant problem in history is that we conduct analysis using the Classical Physics approach of linear analysis, which reduces everything to a single cause and effect. That prevents us from seeing that the world around us functions within a three-dimensional world, and TIME is not a single dimension. Therein lies our most significant error. Our inability to see what dictates the world of Quantum Physics, which unfolds before our eyes, also applies to the world of Classical Physics, causing us to believe in randomness and chaos rather than a hidden order.
There is no better predictor of future warfare than capital flows. We have witnessed capital fleeing danger time and time again, nearly always indicating a significant event was underway before the headlines could capture the moment. The internet is buzzing with a new tongue-in-cheek predictor of US warfare—the pizza index.
The pizza index or pizza meter theorizes that there is an uptick in pizza orders from Washington D.C., namely near the Pentagon, during major crises. America maintains it had no involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran. On June 12, social media users began reporting that the Pentagon pizza index was rising as there was a surge in deliveries surrounding the Pentagon and other defense buildings. At least four pizzerias reported a surge in orders one hour before the first strike.
The Soviet Union was the first to develop this theory, which they called, Pizzint, during the Cold War. Soviet intelligence began tracking pizza orders near the Pentagon and CIA headquarters with intense scrutiny. The Soviets were known for thinking outside the box and developing unconventional strategies for warfare that were often dismissed by other nations. The Soviets believed that a sudden spike in deliveries indicated officials were working extended hours, and Americans’ love for pizza became their tell.
The phenomenon does carry some accuracy. Prior to the Gulf War in 1990, a Domino’s franchise owner by the name of Frank Meeks reported that he received a massive uptick in orders for pizza to the Pentagon and CIA headquarters. Other pizzerias noted a similar pattern, especially on the night that led to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Nighttime pizza orders rose from 3 to 101 per night in the week leading up to hostilities. The night before the battle began, pizza orders to US intelligence offices surpassed 300.
The same phenomenon occurred numerous times, such as the night before US interventions in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989). The meter proved accurate for other significant political events, such as the impeachment hearings for President Bill Clinton in 1998.
Socrates noted that June 1 would lead to a significant global event. Sorry, we do not have pizza tracking in our algorithm. Interestingly, an X account called Pentagon Pizza Report noted that the Domino’s closest to the Pentagon was experiencing abnormally high traffic that day, which coincided with Ukraine’s massive attack on Russia.
Officials are required to work late, tethered to their desks. An uptick in pizza orders before important events is quite an interesting theory and there are now hundreds of social media accounts dedicated to tracking pizza deliveries in the D.C. area. Perhaps intelligence officials should begin ordering takeout elsewhere.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
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