Posted originally on Sep 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Nine of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported a decline in economic activity in August, up five districts from the July Beige Book report. Our system has warned that we are entering a period of stagflation, where inflation remains high but GDP declines. Now, the Fed is reporting that two-thirds of the US economy is experiencing “flat or declining activity.”
The US economy advanced 3% during the last quarter, leading many to believe that the economy is recovering since Q2 posted a measly 1.4% advancement. Consumer spending, amounting to 70% of GDP, rose 2.9% last quarter as well, but people are spending on essentials. They fail to calculate TAXES into the equation when producing these reports and then dismiss essentials such as food and shelter as “volatile” aspects that somehow are not factored in the core figures.
Some people have a very hard time understanding that we are in a massive deflationary spiral; they think that rising prices simply means it is inflation and not deflation. Then, they mistake stagflation for deflation and wonder why people are spending more on less. They only see prices, not disposable income, and certainly not economic growth and unemployment.
The latest jobs report revealed that manufacturing is continuing to decline – shedding 24,000 jobs in July alone. On the other hand, the public sector grew by an additional 24,000, but those are 24,000 positions that will not contribute to GDP. Instead, growing government is simply growing the national debt but that figure no longer matters since it has long been unsustainable.
If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s. The inflation rate will be higher than economic growth and we often see stagflation during times of war. We are beginning to see this come into play on the district level, but soon, it will be undeniable that the US has entered a period of contraction.
Posted originally on Aug 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Marty, I have been attending your conferences since 2011. What I have learned from you is far more than my MBA. You are a world teacher paving the way for a new age. I am glad to hear they are making a movie about your efforts. The world needs to know. I was in Rome when Nigel Farage said that you were the alternative to Davos. What these academics from Davos have done to the world is the total destruction of our values and culture with this open border pushed by Soros.
I know you say you are waiting for Scotty to beam you up. Given what these people have done to suppress you over the years, I don’t think anyone can blame you for that. You are the first victim of cancel culture. Let me speak for your selfish followers. We hope you are here until 2050.
I think it’s in the Bible: blessed will be the peacemakers.
Jared
REPLY: I hope that this Hollywood movie shows the world that there is a better way to live simply with the cycle rather than having these academics ponder how to reconstruct the world. Hence, they constantly think they can make it better and, in the process, destroy the very foundation of civilization. Karl Marx did not understand how the economy works but focused on wealth and labor. He saw capitalism as an extension of ancient slavery, then serfdom, to labor for the capitalist. He tried to change the world, and in the process, hundreds of millions died. His ideas killed more than Stalin, Mao, and Hitler combined.
My father was with General Patton from North Africa to Berlin. He told me that Patton believed he had been sent back from above to win the war. He had wanted to go straight into Moscow back then and told my father that the real enemy was Communism. My father told me that Patton was relieved of command of the 3rd Army by Eisenhower because he publicly said that America had been fighting the wrong enemy—Germany instead of Russia. He died in a car accident, and in his last words, I was told: “This is a hell of a way to die.”
I was raised with that sense of duty because I was always taught we are here for a purpose. Some have told me my father taught me to speak the truth like Patton, even if it angered those in power. Perhaps. I guess just like Patton knew that the real enemy was Communism, I see the real enemy as being these academics who pretend to know how to reshape the world and never understand how it truly functions. So, to me, the enemy remains Davos, Soros, and his legions, as well as Bill Gates. Stop messing with nature and live with the cycles rather than ignoring them or manipulating them to eliminate the business cycle. There is a cycle to the rise and fall of civilizations, and they are fulfilling the destruction of Western society with their open borders that cannot be reversed.
I see the world as the Biblical story of Joseph telling the Pharoah there will be seven years of plenty and seven years of drought. This explains the business cycle and how to live with it. This story is a lesson that Marx, Keynes, Soros, Gates, and Schwab have believed that they are wiser than God or nature, for they have all attempted to either manipulate or terminate the business cycle.
Paul Volcker and I had an exciting conversation back in 1998. He told me that he agreed with my model and that the business cycle is about 8 years in length. I explained that we should stop fighting it. He came to see the inevitability in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle.
Posted 0riginally on Aug 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT #1: I’ve now been reading your work for close to Twenty Years. I’ve been to numerous conferences. From Philadelphia to San Diego to Orlando and you still amaze me
The me from 10 years ago would have thought the world would collapse on Monday as the media stated. Now I’ve learned(from you) to watch what actually happens instead of trying to predict.
I thank you ?? Regards,
JCL
COMMENT #2: Marty, I have been in these markets for 20+ years. Not as long as you, but long enough to see that a bunch of analysts are all claiming we are heading into a recession without any data. It is clear how many people are looking at your Economic Confidence Model but will never give you credit for anything. That reveals their character.
You are here for a reason.
Take care.
FA
RESPONSE: So many people just make forecasts based on opinion. Mainstream media would NEVER put me on the air because I would contradict their mainstay of putting out propaganda to get you to tune in again and again. Markets are propelled by energy. There is simply a finite level of energy that CAN be exerted in a single direction. It is the pendulum.
The swing down provides the short cover for the rally. Rally to a high, which will cause the energy to decline. NOTHING goes straight up or straight down. The 1987 Crash was the same thing. I said the market bottom was in place the very day of the low. As Larry Edelson said, people thought I was crazy. We called the high, the Crash, but also the low.
Here are our Energy Models. Note how energy was declining to a high, showing that you were running out of steam. Then, energy rose sharply with the decline. But look at the Monday low—the energy was subsiding. I try to teach people how to be an international hedge fund manager at these conferences. This is also why they are making a Hollywood movie about what I have done. They understand that there is a better way to run the world than always trying to manipulate things for self-interest. They are also doing a Documentary, the Forecaster 2024, showing all the forecasts they recorded 10 years ago and how they came true. They understand this is NOT MY PERSONAL OPINION!
I know a lot of people are looking at the Economic Confidence Model. Some plagiarize it, while others pay attention silently. This is NOT going to be the classic recession. There is a lot more behind this than meets the eye.
Posted originally on Jul 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Confidence in the very structure of the nation has been shaken amid this private wave where all trust in the government has been lost. A new Pew Research Center poll found that 72% of Americans believe the United States – the land of the free – is no longer a good example of democracy.
Those 72% say that America was once a good example of a democracy for other nations to follow, with only 19% still trusting in its structure. Americans over 50 trust in democracy a bit more than younger generations (11% vs 4%) likely because they are less likely to face the new reality of our broken economy where the American Dream is no longer attainable.
Those most closely aligned to America in terms of economics are more likely to say the US is no longer a good example of democracy (Canada 67%, Japan 65%, UK 63%). Younger generations everywhere now believe America was never a good example of democracy as they have only seen the nation in a state of geopolitical upheaval.
A separate poll with information from Pew Research Center, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN surveys, Americans were if they trust the government. Trust heightened, in line with the ECM, in 1964 under President Johnson with a trust rating of 77%. Trust plummeted when President Nixon became the first president to resign in 1974, with the moving average then standing at 36%. Individual polls then showed confidence moving to a new low of 25% by the end of President Carter’s administration, in line with the economy as always.
Trust in government then peaked at the beginning of George W. Bush’s term in office, with individual polls rising to 60% in 2001 and overall stats hitting 54%. Now, 2001 marked the 9/11 terrorist attack on the Twin Towers that shook the nation at its core, spreading a wave of patriotism across the United States. Everyone trusted that the government would seek revenge and keep the nation safe from future attacks. We permitted countless laws to pass, like the Patriot Act, because we trusted the government to protect us.
By the end of George W. Bush’s term, no one knew what we were doing in the Middle East and were questioning the “weapons of mass destruction” premise. Individual polls plummeted from 60% to a mere 17% in 2008, with overall sentiments not faring much better at 24%. Trust in government has never surpassed 30% on either poll since.
The moving average of trust in the US government now sits at 22%. Politics have never been more divided. The majority of the country questions in the president is mentally fit to serve. Congress is blatantly corrupt. The coronavirus pandemic changed everything and shook the nation as badly as 9/11, but the people ran from government rather than towards it.
Our computer indicates the American economy subtly slipped into a recession, and things will worsen until 2028. We find this same phenomenon of trust in government declining globally and it is all in line with the Economic Confidence Model. Distrust will only grow as economic conditions worsen. By 2032, as indicated by the models, we will have a chance to rebuild and regrow at the end of the Sixth Wave, which will be the equivalent to the fall of ancient Rome.
Posted originally on Jul 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I find it remarkable that your model has always been correct in predicting the economy’s direction. This latest US inflation number shows that it was subsiding, cooling down to the slowest pace since 2021, right in turn with your Economic Confidence Model. Treasuries rallied on expectations that the Fed might cut rates. It seems so obvious to a blind man that your model has done what no economist has been able to do for decades. Why does academia refuse to credit you for your discovery?
SH
ANSWER: The 1960s was a wild time when I was still in high school. In Economics class, they said everything is random, and there is no definitive business cycle, so we can manipulate the economy to prevent recessions. That was the Keynesian economics. When I went to Physics class, they emphasized that nothing was random. I concluded the someone was not telling the truth and it seemed to be in the Economics class.
For you see, this was the period when the fixed exchange rate was collapsing. It was the end of Bretton Woods, and this was a confusing period for what people call today the “Everything Bubble.” Back during the 1960s, it was the “Everything Crash.” I saw everything rise to a peak and then crash from stocks and bonds to precious metals, real estate, and collectibles. This forged my understanding of the world economy, and everything was connected.
The pressure on Brettone Woods actually began with rising inflation. President Kennedy was forced to remove silver from the coinage starting in 1965. The last silver coins produced came with the peak of that ECM wave in 1964, and by 1968, that saw the first major crash in the gold standard.
Back then, the 1968 financial crisis forced the two-tier gold market where gold began to trade openly in London in 1968.
Gold rallied to $44, finally forcing the first crash in the gold standard. The solution was to allow a two-tier market, where the fixed rate was between countries, and the private market was allowed to float.
I remember well that in 1970, just BEFORE the fixed exchange rate collapsed in August 1971, gold fell on the London market to $34.70 BELOW the official fixed rate after it had risen to $44 in 1969, which forced the first crack in the fixed exchange rate system.
The pressure persisted, but gold fell below the official rate in 1970, and then, by August 1971, President Nixon was forced to close the gold window. In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against the countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
It was the bias of academia in Economics that followed Marx and then Keynes. In both theories, economists advocated intervention. Thus, economists marketed themselves as all-powerful, and they could direct the government on how to better manage the economy to eliminate the business cycle.
To this very day, academia refuses to accept the business cycle, for they always want to preach EQUALITY and fairness and constantly point to the disparity of wealth as if everyone should have exactly the same. So, they will NEVER accept my research because most of the academics follow these interventionist theories. It’s not something personal, it is just the way academia operates.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I have often been asked the question, WHY did the Greek denomination of the stater comply with the 8.6 frequency of the Economic Confidence Model? The silver stater minted at Corinth was 8.6 grams (0.28 oz) in weight, which was divided into three silver drachmae of 2.9 grams (0.093 oz). Its rival city-state was Athens, and their silver didrachm (two drachmae) weighed 8.6 grams (0.28 oz), while their Athenian silver tetradrachm (four drachmae) weighed 17.2 grams (0.55 oz).
What we do know is that the ancient Babylonians calculated the area of a circle by taking three times the square of its radius, which gave a value of pi = 3. One Babylonian tablet (ca. 1900–1680 BC) indicates a value of 3.125 for π, which is a closer approximation.
The Rhind Papyrus (ca.1650 BC) gives us insight into Advanced Ancient Egyptian mathematics. The Egyptians calculated the area of a circle using a formula that gave an approximate value of 3.1605 for π (a 0.6% margin error, extremely good even by modern standards) 4000 years before that value was fixed at 3.14. We know that the Great Pyramid’s estimated dimensions are based on Phi, which only varies by 0.025%. A pyramid based on Pi varies by only 0.1% from the Great Pyramid’s estimated dimensions.
The first Greek calculation of π was done by Archimedes of Syracuse (287–212 BC), who was one of the greatest mathematicians of the ancient world. Archimedes approximated the area of a circle by using the Pythagorean Theorem to find the areas of two regular polygons. Since the actual area of the circle lies between the areas of the inscribed and circumscribed polygons, the areas of the polygons give upper and lower bounds for the area of the circle. Archimedes knew that he had not found the value of π but only an approximation within those limits. This way, Archimedes showed that π is between 3 1/7 and 3 10/71.
Even when we look at the coinage of Syracuse, located in Sicily, we see the same standard. This is a Dekadrachm, which is 10 drachms of 4.3 grams each. We have no ancient text to resolve this mystery. It certainly appears that the coinage was based upon this understanding of Pi.
It remains a mystery why their monetary system was established at 8.6 grams. No accounts indicate why they chose this weight. I can only say that perhaps they intentionally made this a Pi derivative.
Prehistory is the period of human history between the first known use of stone tools by hominins c. 3.3 million years ago and the beginning of recorded history with the invention of writing systems. There has long been a problem with academia in every field. Once they establish a belief, they simply defend it to the last dying man. They have done that with Historia Augusta insisting that it was fake because they did not hear of certain names of Roman Emperors during the 3rd century AD. Coins, such as Saturninus and Proculus, were discovered, which clearly established that academics were wrong. To this day, even Wikipedia claims its authenticity is questionable. “The true authorship of the work, its actual date, its reliability and its purpose have long been matters for controversy by historians and scholars…”
The NETFLIX show of Graham Hancock and his Ancient Apocalypse is an excellent show where he presents his “pseudoarchaeological theories” about the alleged existence of an advanced civilization active during the last ice age. What I can say is that Scientists have recorded five significant ice ages throughout the Earth’s history: the Huronian (2.4-2.1 billion years ago), Cryogenian (850-635 million years ago), Andean-Saharan (460-430 mya), Karoo (360-260 mya) and Quaternary (2.6 mya-present). In addition, there have been about a dozen major glaciations that have occurred over the past 1 million years. These appear to be natural cyclical events that also align with the Earth’s passage around the universe. The largest such event peaked around 650,000 years ago and lasted for 50,000 years.
Hancock’s theory of civilization prehistory being destroyed by the last Ice Age, also appears to align with the legends of the Great Flood that in the Bible is said to be Noah. That most recent glaciation period or Ice Age, reached peak conditions some 18,000 years ago before giving way to the interglacial Holocene epoch 11,700 years ago. There are accounts of a great flood that appear in virtually all the earliest recordings of history.
The story of Noah’s Ark landing in what is a region of Turkey known in ancient times as Phrygia is even celebrated on Roman coins. The Ark depicted on this coin from the 2nd century AD even has the name inscribed “NOAH” on the vessel in Greek. It is entirely possible that this story dates back to the 10,000 BC era and represents the previous civilization of which Hancock has concluded existed.
What we do know is that the ancient is often built upon the ruins of the previous. The ancient city of Troy has several layers. The orientation and dispositions of the Sphinx, the Giza pyramids, and the Nile River relative to one another on the ground accurately reflect the constellations of Leo, Orion (specifically, Orion’s Belt), and the Milky Way, respectively. That does NOT mean that they were constructed 10,000 BC, but something was there previously. The Sphinx does show what appears to be water erosion marking from that period when the area was tropical. It cannot be ruled out that it was originally a lion recarved by the Egyptians thousands of years later.
About eight civilizations collapsed, with the exception of Egypt post-1250 BC. This was caused by a major shift in climate that led to droughts, which resulted in widespread famine that inspired migrations/invasions. This event of 1177 BC was the Bronze Age equivalent to the fall of Rome, for they both were followed by a Dark Age.
Many have attributed this collapse of the Bronze Age to the Sea Peoples, which were most likely northern Mediterranean mass migrants due to the colder climate in Europe. Cline has assembled a nice assembly of sources but missed the climate change. He assumed there was a migration southward. However, we can see that the first dip to the cold came about 1,800 years ago. We can see that the all-time high temperature was about 3,300 years ago.
The collapse of the Bronze Age was mostly complete by about 1100-1000 BC. Our computer has identified a 1720-year cycle beginning in the Dark Ages with the fall of Rome in 476 AD when the last pretend Emperor reigned (Romulus Augustus (575-476AD)). Our model highlighted the cycle between the Dark Ages of 1720 years, which brings us to 1244 BC — right on target for the beginning of the collapse of civilization.
All other civilizations collapsed, with the exception of Egypt post 1250 BC, but even that was greatly diminished. In school, they taught the linear version of the Sea Peoples who invaded to destroy. That storyline has long been way too simple, and Eric Cline brought a new perspective, linking it to drought and famine and the Sea Peoples, which he believed was more of a mass migration southward.
However, in addition to that, there is a major cycle on a fractal basis, which is 3096 years. Our computer has projected that there would have been a warming period of about 10,465 years again, which would have probably coincided with the thaw of the last Ice Age, which may have produced the Great Flood.
The Tropic Belt has been gradually moving northward since 1970. There is debate over what is even causing that. Nevertheless, we now understand that even the Tropic Belt is subject to cyclical movement, which may also explain the shift from a lush green environment as late as 6,000 years ago, which then turned into a desert in the Sahara. Curiously, this is about the length of recorded history. This, too, may be contributing to the illusion of global warming created by man.
All I can say is that the monetary system to have aligned with our 8,6 ECM frequency might be that this was ancient knowledge that has also been lost. They did not have TV back then and spent much time mapping the heavens. They may have discovered that Pi was indeed the secret cycle of the Universe.
Posted originally on Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, they called you Mr. Yen for good reason. I remember in 1998 when you sold $1 billion at 14700 on an MIT order (Market if Touched), and the dollar declined for 11 years thereafter. That 147 was your Yearly Bullish Reversal, which we blew through here in 2024, also on schedule. I remember that trade very well, and you said that if 147 were exceeded, the next stop would be 262. OK. We just hit 161. Are those forecasts from back then still valid?
TP
REPLY: Wow. You are still at it. My hat is off to you, as they say. Oh, I remember that trade very well. It was during the liquidity crisis with the collapse of Russia. Here is the Yen chart back to 1900. The primary resistance stands at the 210-212 level. We need 2024 to close above that Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147. Then, resistance will be below the Yearly Bullish Reversal of 262. It will form between 246 and 260. It appears to be a war on the horizon. Once the 262 level is exceeded, this points to 363, followed by 397 by the time we reach 2032.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 