Posted originally on Aug 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have come to understand that your cross in life is that you created a computer that always beats you. That must be a strange feeling to play chess, and it always puts you in checkmate. You are correct. The EU will never allow Zelensky to agree to peace. His purpose is to create World War III, and Socrates is always correct.
WS
REPLY: Yes, I have come to accept that I cannot defeat my own computer. My only remaining hope is that if I scream loud enough, perhaps, just maybe, I can reduce the amplitude which was the excuse of locking us all down during COVID (Except Florida) to “flatten the curve.” I cannot do this alone. We need to get as many people screaming, let NATO self-destruct, and stay the hell out of this European War.
Posted originally on Aug 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for participating in our board meeting. We had come to the same conclusion that all of this talk of BRICS and de-dollarization was being promoted by people in the conspiracy category, lacking any honest experience in international commerce. Before the meeting, we called one, and our Chairman listened. They could not answer any real economic question. The claims that this is the end of dollar hegemony only exposed their lack of expertise.
Trump’s tariffs, Biden’s sanctions, and the freezing of Russian assets were all supposed to kill the dollar as Russia, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa were to construct parallel financial systems as if they would no longer sell to the United States. Then there was the mention of backing by gold. Our chairman was very impressed that you could answer every question. You pointed us in the right direction with common sense and your real-world experience.
Thank you once again. As you said, us is about one third of the entire world consumer market, and global financial transactions to IPO are predominantly in dollars. Our Chairman will be at your WEC personally this time.
SFD
ANSWER: Thank you. Because this is such an important topic and I do not have the time to attend every board meeting internationally, I thought it best that I lay out the gist of our discussions. Your company is in the global business, and it is pathetic how the majority of these people preach the same nonsense without understanding world commerce. The US dollar’s dominance in international finance is clear despite BRICS, but its share varies across different areas. Before World War II, countries issued their debt in British pounds in order to sell it in London.
U.S. Multinational Dominance: U.S. companies earn massive profits overseas. This is the PRIMARY reason why these analysts do not understand world commerce. Apple, Microsoft, and Pfizer all generate more than 50% of revenue abroad. In 2022, U.S. multinationals earned $1.6 trillion from foreign affiliates (BEA data). Then there is the Intellectual Property (IP) and Services such as our firm with offices around the world. The US is a net exporter of IP, royalties, and high-value services (e.g., Google’s ad revenue abroad).
The US traditionally runs a goods deficit (manufacturing) of $1 trillion/year but a services surplus of $300 billion if we look at the accounting based on the ownership of companies rather than location, US overseas affiliate sales ($6 trillion/year) dwarf foreign affiliate sales in the US ($4.5 trillion/year). Now throw in the net IP receipts ($100 billion surplus), the U.S. likely shows a net Trader Surplus on an ownership basis.
When combined with services, IP, and overseas profits, the overall balance shifts to a surplus. The US benefits disproportionately from globalized production because its firms capture value through branding, R&D, and IP—elements obscured by traditional trade metrics. This highlights why trade deficits alone are an incomplete measure of economic health. Looking at the ownership-based accounting better reflects where value is captured in global supply chains. I have argued this in Washington, but it goes in one ear and out the other.
Global Trade Invoicing & Settlement (Primary Focus):
Approximately 40-50% of all global trade (exports) is invoiced in US dollars. This means the prices of goods traded internationally are set in dollars, regardless of the countries involved. Over 80% of global trade finance (letters of credit, etc.) is conducted in dollars!!!!! Around 88% of global foreign exchange (FX) transactions involve the US dollar on one side (according to the BIS Triennial Survey). This underpins trade settlements and makes the whole stupid argument of de-dollarization laughable, for they are mixing geopolitical with economics.
SWIFT data (payment messages) accounts for roughly 46-48% of international payment messages (by value) that are denominated in USD (as of mid-2024). This is a key indicator of actual settlement currency. Given that the latest consumer spend at the end of 2025 amounts to $55.5 trillion, of which the American consumer is now $17.9 trillion, US consumer spending accounts for 32.3% of the entire world! So, will BRICS displace the dollar? Come on. They said the same BS about the Euro. The United States is the LEAST socialist country, and that above all accounts for its Dominant Share of the world economy. Despite having only about 4% of the world’s population, the U.S. consistently accounts for nearly one-third of global consumer spending. This underscores the immense size and importance of the U.S. consumer market to the global economy and thus the dollar.
The dollar’s dominance does impact consumer spending globally because many goods that consumers buy locally are imported in other countries. If those imports were invoiced and paid for in dollars, fluctuations in the dollar’s value could affect local prices (inflation/purchasing power). This is why your key commodities like oil, metals, and grains are predominantly priced in dollars. Changes in the dollar affect the cost of energy and raw materials globally, impacting production costs and ultimately consumer prices for a vast array of goods. When the US is about 1/3rd of the world’s consumer spending and about 50% of all world trade, that is why they are priced in US dollars rather than the pesos.
The next HUGE area these one-issue analysts ignore is the Debt & Financial Markets. Countries and corporations borrowing in dollars face repayment costs affected by dollar strength, influencing their economies and potentially consumer spending power within those countries. This has often been one area that I get called into a lot. Currency Pegs/Reserves have been a critical issue over the years. Many countries manage their currencies relative to the dollar or hold significant dollar reserves, influencing their domestic monetary policy and economic stability. This includes Foreign Exchange Reserves. The dollar constitutes about 59% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks (IMF COFER data Q1 2024).
Approximately 75-80% of emerging market (EM) external sovereign bonds are denominated in US dollars. For corporate EM bonds, the share is slightly lower, around 60-70%. As I pointed out, before World War II, EMs would issue their debt in British pounds because that was where there was a market to sell their debt. Today, the pound has been replaced with dollars, and the FINANCIAL CAPITAL OF THE WORLD is now New York – not London or Paris.
Of the Sovereign Debt issues globally (Government Issuance), that works out to be 75-80% USD-denominated (e.g., IMF, BIS, and J.P. Morgan EMBI Index data). For example, as of 2023, over 75% of EM government bonds held by foreign investors were in USD. Turn to the corporate world. There we see 60-70% USD-denominated corporate debt issues (e.g., Bank for International Settlements data). This is even higher in sectors like commodities or multinationals.
New York City is unequivocally the world’s leading global financial center, and its banks play a dominant role in key aspects of international banking. This ensures the dollar’s role in global transactions. The vast majority of international trade and finance is conducted in USD. NYC banks are at the heart of that system. On a clearing basis alone, the Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS) in NYC clears roughly $1.5 trillion daily in cross-border USD payments. That represents a massive share of global USD flows.
Then there is the Correspondent Banking network. Major NYC banks act as correspondent banks for thousands of banks worldwide, facilitating their international USD transactions. Investment Banking (Capital Markets) takes place in the heart of the NYC-based banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup) and this consistently dominates global aspects of Mergers & Acquisitions, Equity and Debt underwriting (IPOs, bond issuances), and Sales & Trading (especially of US Treasuries, the world’s most profound and most important bond market). Even if we look at the global investment banking fee revenue, you will find that more than 50% takes place in New York City.
Europe and Britain, along with India and Switzerland, cancelled their currency. The $500 and $1,000 Canadian banknotes were withdrawn from circulation and are no longer legal tender as of January 1, 2021. However, they can still be redeemed at banks or the Bank of Canada for their face value, and they may hold additional value for collectors. Trump has proposed bringing back the $500 bill. Yet, while Roosevelt stopped issuing high-denomination bills, they are still valid. This is a MAJOR issue that the dollar remains the reserve currency around the world – it is TRUSTED!!!!!! While 60% of all U.S. bills circulate abroad, about 80% of $100 notes dominate foreign holdings due to their high value and portability.
The dollar is involved in roughly 40-50% of trade invoicing, over 80% of trade finance, and about 46-48% of international payment settlements. Research has shown that allocating world commerce according to ownership rather than location results in the US having a trade surplus, not a deficit.
The dollar remains the undisputed dominant global reserve and transaction currency, involved in the vast majority of cross-border financial flows. All of the nonsense about “de-dollarization,” with some countries (like China, Russia, Brazil) increasing the use of other currencies in bilateral trade agreements, is a distraction. Such a shift is gradual and hasn’t significantly eroded the dollar’s overall global share, and cannot until the economic changes, and that will not come until AFTER 2032.
Anyone who says the BRICS are displacing the dollar cannot possibly have any experience in world finance.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: I find it very interesting that Earth passes closest to the densest part of the Taurid stream in late October and early November, when both the Southern and Northern Taurids are active. However, 2032 is predicted to have enhanced activity due to gravitational influences from Jupiter, which can bring more debris into Earth’s path. Some have suggested that an impact of a cosmic event caused the Younger Dryas, perhaps from this Taurid stream, if the Earth were hit by a comet or asteroid impact around 12,900 years ago, which triggered the Younger Dryas that sent the planet into an abrupt cooling lasting about 1,200 years. That would be like a mega volcanic winter. If you divide 12,900 years ago by 8.6, that is precisely 1500 cycles. Since the forecast for the highest intensity in the Taurid stream is 2032, is your computer picking this up?
Jos
ANSWER: The cycle is fractal, like everything within nature. We know that the world dramatically changed about 11,000 years ago. Six waves build into 51.6 years, and six of those build into 309.6 years, with six of those creating waves of 1857.6, and 6 of those take us right to 11,145.6. This is a significant turning point. I cannot dismiss the scientific forecast for 2032, coinciding with the Taurid stream out of hand. I think we do need to pay attention and be prepared to divert such an impact if it becomes obvious. We are headed back into a cooling period – not warming. These nut jobs who want to put dust in the air to reduce global warming will kill most of humanity when a volcano of 7+ erupts on top of their dust.
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Conversations with the Master Forecaster
This book is unlike anything you’ve read before. It’s not another theory — it’s a documented track record of how Martin saw what no one else did:
✅ Sovereign debt implosions ✅ War cycles and geopolitical shifts ✅ The coming collapse of trust in governments ✅ The timeline to 2032 — and what it means for you
Written by longtime interviewer Kerry Lutz, this book is based on over a decade of never-before-published insights, straight from Martin’s most powerful moments on air.
Whether you’re an investor, thinker, or someone simply seeking truth in an age of lies, this is your handbook for what’s next.
Now available on Amazon: Click here to get the book (Paperback, Hardcover, Kindle & Audiobook editions available)
Thank you for supporting the real truth in a world of curated nonsense.
More information:
A visionary economist. A controversial thinker. A man whose ideas challenge the status quo.
In The World According to Martin Armstrong, discover the extraordinary insights of a financial forecaster who predicted some of the most significant economic events of our time. Armstrong’s unique understanding of historical cycles, global finance, and political power offers a fresh perspective on the forces shaping our world.
From the intricate dance of sovereign debt to the rise and fall of empires, this book explores Armstrong’s groundbreaking Economic Confidence Model and its implications for the past, present, and future. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, a history buff, or someone seeking to make sense of today’s complex world, this book will challenge and inspire you.
Prepare to see the world through a new lens that connects the dots between history, economics, and human behavior in ways you’ve never imagined.
Posted originally on Jul 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said that the market would make new highs by 1989. You did the same in 2009 even Barrons reported that call that the market would make new highs when everyone else was calling for a depression.
Others claiming to be analysts hate you because they do not have the trading skills you display, in addition to Socrates. When you said the low would be April 7, I spoke to many people who laughed and said No way. When I talked to others I met at your Conference, they said never be on the opposite side of a call like that.
Was this your Scheme Frequency Model that you refuse to publish because governments could abuse it to topple governments? Or was this your cyclical stochastic that I notice with hindsight went to zero the day before?
Care to give us a hint?
Jef
ANSWER: These calls to the day have been the Scheme Frequency, not the Stochastic. Nonetheless, you can use the Cycle-Infused Stochastic, which differs for each market as the computer determines the frequency mix. The short-term Blue in the Stochastic hit ZERO the day before. With hindsight at the end of the day, the Blue turned up confirming the forecast was correct. But the April 7th forecast was made well before.
The Array was published on the Private Blog on April 7th, along with a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle the very next day, which should have been to the upside. There are 72 separate models in this Array. Neither the Scheme nor the Economic Confidence Model is included. Three computers are analyzing every market, from trading patterns to various definitions of volatility, including intraday and overnight. The top line represents the aggregate meaning, which is the sum of 72 models. The accuracy is (1) no human opinion or emotion, and (2) it is a correlation of analysis rather than a single model or one that requires human opinion, like Elliot Wave, where two people using the same theory reach different conclusions.
Look, I am sorry, what should have been a discovery for the betterment of humanity was a target for power. What I discovered will die with me. I cannot allow them to get their hands on it. When the CIA asked me to build the model for them, I offered to run whatever study they wanted. Their response was – They had to own it.
Crossfire Hurricane was the code name for the counterintelligence investigation undertaken by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from July 31, 2016, to May 17, 2017. It was when FBI director James Comey raised suspicions of obstruction of justice, which triggered the Mueller investigation. James Comey was the head of the DOJ in NYC, who was keeping me in contempt indefinitely until the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on. Then they had to release me. My case centered around the attempted regime change they were orchestrating to seize control of Russia, which I refused to participate in. Then Comey even “interviewed” Hillary and took no notes, so she could never be prosecuted. The FBI always takes notes in a proffer session. Then, was Comey involved in Crossfire Hurricane? I believe Comey was well aware of what was going on in NYC.
I was kept in prison without even a description of a crime. Ask any lawyer if this was legal. There is no rule of law in the United States. Justice is spelled “JUST US” and you are a fool if you think they give a shit about anything other than their own power. They circumvent Congress, and most judges do whatever the government tells them to order. They tortured me. They throw you in a cell that is so hot, underwear is too much. Then they throw you in a cell that is so cold you can see your breath with nothing to keep you warm. Because the courts claim that torture is defined as leaving a mark on your body, so anything they do, like waterboarding, is not torture.
Torture is defined under U.S. law (18 U.S.C. § 2340) and the UN Convention Against Torture as severe physical/mental pain or suffering intentionally inflicted. Waterboarding (simulated drowning) has been prosecuted as torture by the U.S. itself (e.g., post-WWII trials of Japanese soldiers). However, when the Neocons employed it under the Bush administration, OLC memos argued waterboarding was not torture if “properly limited.” These were withdrawn in 2009 and deemed “legally flawed” by the DOJ.
In Padilla v. Yoo (9th Cir. 2012), which was a case regarding legal immunity for John Yoo (author of OLC memos), the court avoided ruling on waterboarding’s legality. Still, it included a footnote (dicta) stating:
“We have no occasion here to decide whether waterboarding constitutes torture… even if it could be torture in some circumstances, it was not torture as applied to Padilla.”
When Judge Lawrence M. McKenna attempted to protect me, the DOJ then went to the Chief Judge to have my case taken away from him, as he had refused to recuse himself at the government’s request. The court sealed the docket, and they refused to explain how they could remove a judge in violation of Due Process of Law, with no information revealed as to how. I believe it is sealed because this was all about national security. Under US law, this is supposed to be illegal. They do not care about the rule of law when the government wants something. They could not deny Free Speech, so they call on YouTube, Facebook, etc., and have people removed or have their accounts shut down by banks.
They then gave my case to Judge John F. Kennan, who then denied all discovery despite a court-appointed accountant stating the government refused to turn over evidence for 7 years. They were using my accounts for money laundering post trades that were not mine and then backing them out to different accounts the next day. Judge Kennan, along with Judge Peter Kevin Castel, ensured that I had no rights, not even human rights, let alone constitutional rights. The court-appointed lawyer, David Cooper, refused to file an appeal, I believe, to protect the government that had instructed him not to do so. Court-appointed lawyers lose 99% of the time because they should never be trusted – they are pawns in all cases. Even General Flynn discovered how a hired lawyer will not defend you, as shown in his documentary. Even Trump could not remove a judge. Absolutely nobody will dare investigate my case because they know what it would expose.
To make the movie “The Forecaster,” they must have insurance against slander and libel. They had to prove that the government was after the model, and they slipped up by putting it in writing. When they torture you, their way to survive is to take their power away. You must lose all fear of death. People think that imposing the death penalty for a crime is the worst punishment. They understand nothing. There are things far worse than death – being tortured for the rest of your life every day, but never enough to kill you or leave a mark on your body so they can pretend to be honorable and respect human rights.
I have seen the true colors of the real beast. I said before, I will die with the Schema Model. They will abuse it and use it to achieve regime change, which I was in the middle of as they tried to take control of Russia in 2000. That is why Hillary created the RussiaGate Affair, and I question if Attorney General Pam Bondi or anyone in the Trump Administration would dare to investigate my case, for it would expose the Neocons and that they were trying to seize control of Russia, installing their puppet Boris Berezovsky, whose own bodyguard said he never committed suicide – he was killed by MI6. I believe the truth has its limits.
BTW, the company they wanted me to invest $10 billion for this regime change was Hermitage Capital Management owned by Edmond Safra, who I believe the CIA killed in Monaco, and Bill Browder who just so happened to have been the right-hand man of RobertMaxwell (1923-1991) – the father of GhislaineMaxwell the girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein who ran the biggest blackmail operation perhaps in history for who? People think it is a list of pedophiles. RIGHT!. It is a list of victims, and the real question is what they did on the orders of Epstein and for whom?
Robert Maxwell was linked to Mossad, and his death in 1991 also coincided with the fall of the USSR. I believe he was part of the manipulation club and lost a few hundred million pounds trading with the pension funds of the employees. He magically fell off his yacht before having to testify. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances just before he was due to testify about missing funds from his companies’ pension schemes. On November 5, 1991, his body was found floating in the Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands, where his luxury yacht, the Lady Ghislaine, had been anchored. He was reportedly facing serious legal consequences, including possible fraud charges, and was due to testify before UK regulators. Whenever I was asked to join the “club,” I said, “I do know how to swim.”
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell reportedly met in early 1991 in New York before her father died. There is so much more to the Epstein affair, but they keep everyone focused on pedophiles rather than on the blackmail and real motives and who was truly pulling the strings.
Jeffrey Epstein attended Robert Maxwell’s funeral in 1991. Epstein had financial and social ties to Maxwell and his family. Epstein’s presence at the funeral is documented, and it underscores his early connections to powerful figures. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances after falling from his yacht, Lady Ghislaine (named after his daughter). Robert Maxwell had long been the subject of speculation regarding possible connections to intelligence agencies, including Israel’s Mossad. While no definitive proof has been made public, several credible reports and investigations suggest that Maxwell had significant ties to Israeli intelligence. I covered my investigation of this in the Plot to Seize Russia.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 