The Crash & Burn


Crash & Burn

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you’ve mentioned the term “Crash and Burn” many times over the last few months. My question is, what will the “Crash and Burn” look like? Will it be worldwide or specific to a few countries like the US? Will it be in the form of a financial crash, food shortages, violence in the streets, all the above or in some other form? Could you please provide your vision of what the crash and burn might look like as I try to prepare my family for what lies ahead.

Many Thanks for your valuable insight.

AB

ANSWER: I am referring to government – not markets. We can see the meltdown in politics going on. The left is fighting so desperately to stop Trump; if not impeach him. Let’s say they succeed in impeaching him. What would really happen? Trump won the majority of people in the country with the single exception of California, which is indeed La La Land. They would be the sixth largest economy in the world by themselves, but  California does face some very serious economic issues. The majority of its economic growth has all been concentrated in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, leaving the state vulnerable just in case the tech economy sours. This is also creating a much wider gap between the rich and the poor than in most other regions in the country. When Southern California gets tired of complaining about Trump, you will see them turn against the North, demanding their money to pay for their lifestyle.

If the left were to succeed in getting rid of Trump, you will see the silent majority who put Trump in office because all they see is a constant dwindling future with the highest taxes and a declining standard of living suddenly not be so silent. They are NOT going to take this abuse of the left any more by people who just want to subjugate them and destroy the future of their children. The economics behind what put Trump in office is only going to get far worse.

When I was young, I was naive and stupid. I tried to turn the tide in Washington. I donated my time to keep my independence, never taking a dime for anything. Once you accept ANY money from these people, they own your soul. That is why every time crisis comes, my phone rings because they know I will tell them the truth and not what I am being paid to say.

Consequently, I simply gave up. I have worked behind the curtain for 40 years even testifying before Congress and answering questions in the middle of a panic. There is absolutely NOTHING anyone can possibly do to change the trend – IMPOSSIBLE. Let me explain what politics is all about and why the left should really embrace Trump to save their own ass for the future.

If I was to run for reelection and said vote for me because I saved your job, would you believe me? Chances are you would ask, how do I know I would even have lost my job? It is far better to allow a crisis to unfold, for then your emotions will be running high and you want revenge for your loss. That is when politicians will say: Vote for me, I’ll get the guy that did this to you!

Crash & BurnAs a result, there is nobody in Washington, Republican or Democrat, who would prefer to prevent a crisis when they will never receive a vote or any credit. It is always better to allow the crisis and then emerge as your champion. Therefore, the sad realization is that we simply must CRASH & BURN, for only then will anyone pay attention.

Keep in mind that this CRASH & BURN is government – not the private sector. Therefore, the danger lies in government assets – not private sector assets – stocks, real estate, and tangible assets.

Disgusted with Congress Yet?


Disgusted

QUESTION: I see what you mean that even the Republicans are against Trump. If the NSA is taking all our phone calls, emails, and SMS and the latest Wikileaks shows what the CIA is doing, how is it possible to say that Trump was not monitored during the election after Hillary Tweeted about the same servers? This is very disheartening.

Disappointed

ANSWER: As I said, they are expressly stating that Trump was not “wiretapped” when there were submissions to the FICA court. Yet, we seem to be in a complete state of cover-up. If the NSA has everything, why did Congress not subpoena them for the erased Hillary emails? It just seems that they want to deny everything that Snowden warned about that they can type in anyone’s name and wow, everything appears.

I agree. I too am becoming very disappointed in Congress and it appears they are pushing back because Trump also promised TERM LIMITS and they are not about to allow that promise. What they have done with trying to fix Obamacare is just a mess. You have to wonder, are they really this incompetent or are they playing an act for a political agenda?

Even the movie, The Forecaster, was initially going to be on NETFLIX, but then senior management allegedly stopped it, just as the film rights were bought for the United States and then they refused to show it in theaters. We live in a world where we neither have free press nor a democratic system. This is getting really bad.

Another Week Of Huge Outflows From Active Managers, Huger Inflows To ETFs


Tyler Durden's picture

The highly compensated world of active fund managers continued to disintegrate before their eyes in the last week, when according to EPFR data even as overall cash continued to flood into equities for a total of $14.5 billion, the 11th consecutive week of inflows, this was entirely due to allocations to ETFs, which saw $19.7 billion in inflows, the highest weekly amount YTD, offset by $5.1 billion in outflows from actively managed funds.

Looking at what its private clients are doing, BofA notes that the top 3 ETF inflows past 4 weeks = Financials, Bank Loans, MLPs (page 3); Furthermore, despite all the talk of cash on the sidelines, private client asset allocation has hit 60% for stocks, just shy of all time highs, offset by  bonds 23%, cash 11%.

At the current rate of “great rotation” from active to passive managers, the inflection point at which the two asset classes meet will hit far sooner than the previous forecast.

And speaking of great rotations, another notable feature from last week’s fund flow data was the bond outflows in 12 weeks ($0.1bn), led by largest HY bond redemptions more than 2 years ($5.7bn); contrast with strong inflows equities ($14.5bn this week). According to BofA, YTD equity inflows of $97 billion now substantially surpass bond inflows of $79bn. While it will come as no surprise, junk bond spreads and the eerie calm in the stock market continue to be highly correlated.

Some more fund flow details:

Fixed Income Flows

  • Largest HY bond fund outflows in more than 2 years ($5.7bn)
  • 12 straight weeks of IG bond inflows ($3.1bn)
  • 7 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds ($0.7bn)
  • 18 straight weeks of inflows to bank loan funds ($0.9bn)
  • 14 straight weeks of inflows to TIPS funds ($0.2bn)
  • First inflows to govt/tsy funds in 7 weeks ($0.1bn)

Equity Flows

  • EM: largest outflow in 11 weeks ($1bn)
  • US: largest inflow in 13 weeks ($12bn)
  • Japan: 10 straight weeks of inflows ($1.2bn)
  • Europe: modest $0.2bn outflow

By sector: largest inflows to US value funds in 16 weeks ($2.8bn) vs $0.3bn outflows from US growth funds; inflows to materials ($0.4bn, 9 of last 10 weeks), utilities ($0.4bn), tech ($0.3bn) and energy ($0.2bn); outflows from financials ($0.1bn), real estate ($1bn, largest in 11 weeks), consumer ($0.1bn), and healthcare ($0.2bn).

* * *

Finally, regarding the timing of BofA’ “Great Fall” market forecast, we are still in the “not yet” phase:

Fed & Humpty-Dumpty: “great fall” in risk assets, “great rise” in vol likely flagged by higher wage inflation (AHE>3%), hawkish Fed (yield curve bear flattens), EPS growth peak, financial “stress” via HY bond spreads (v correlated with VIX); spreads >400bps this week, but need to rise further 50-75bps to elicit cross-asset vo

WHERE IN THE CONSTITUTION?


Thank our esteemed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Roberts for this crazy interpretation.

OBSTRUCTIONIST VS. HEALTHY DEMOCRACY


Can’t argue with this one for it is exactly correct, that is the way it works.

Hannity Rips NBC For ‘Corporate Jihad Against President Donald Trump’


Hannity is right this is what it is a Jihad against Trump.

Google Adds Tool to Flag ‘Offensive’ Search Results


The end of Free Speech is near!

Gingrich On Trump Leaks, Tax Return – Prosecute Aggressively Or It Won’t Stop


I agree these kinds of leaks do need to be stopped!

Violent threats against president OK now?


The media will never support Trump on anything even this as outrageous as it is.

Rand Paul Blasts ‘Good Socialist’ Bernie Sanders for Not ‘Paying His Fair Share’


I just hope that Trump is aware of the snake Ryan and what he may pull.