Volcanoes & the Risk During Solar Minimum


COMMENT: Dear Marty,
Thank you so much for warning all for what is coming !

Sorry to keep reflecting on details, you wrote :“The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6- 7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter. The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater.”

VEI is a logaritmic scale, so to create the same impact of one VEI 7, you need 10 VEI 6, 100 VEI 5, 10,000 VEI 4 or 100,000 VEI3. 5 to 6 small eruptions of VEI3 ? won’t do much, sorry hope attached table comes thru high VEI’s not only throw up more dust, ie VEI 6 does 0.003% of the stratosphere volume, VEI 7 0.032%, VEI 8 0.3% and VEI 9 3% high VEI’s do shoot much higher as well; VEI 5 may reach stratosphere; so the impact will not be limited to stratosphere only the frequency extrapolation does tell us a lot about how we can not imagine what could happen where VEI 5 would occur every 12 years, VEI 9 only once 27,000 years do not know where it ends, because it is an extrapolation BUT given the big mass extinctions come in cycles of multiples of 31.4 million years the event probably is much larger than that would it be a significant meteorite impact that triggers many quakes and eruptions ?

REPLY: You are absolutely correct. We do know that there were two volcanoes that erupted which produced the year without a summer. Evidence suggests that this event took place during the Solar Minimum and was predominantly the result of a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia) which was a VEI7. This eruption was probably the largest eruption since the 6th century AD which produced devastation between 535–536 AD. It is believed that the year without a summer was probably enhanced due to the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines which was VEI4.

You are correct that it would probably take a number of smaller eruptions because of the log scale. However, Tambora may not have been sufficient to alter the climate entirely by itself. It is hard to rule out that Mayon, which was only a VEI4, combined with the VEI7 to create the devastation.

However, evidence has been uncovered from around the world that the early Dark Ages of the 6th century AD was most likely triggered by an eruption around 535 AD, which was probably a VEI7+ event. There was a natural phenomenon of cataclysmic proportions that altered the world and even changed religion. This event created major political, economic and social changes that few people have ever bothered to connect the dots.

It has long been believed that there was probably an eruption from Ilopango in El Salvador. There was probably a second eruption perhaps in Indonesia and may have been Krakatoa.

There was a major volcanic explosion that was equal to more than 2000 Hiroshima size bombs. Human civilization was altered from the Mayan to Mongolia in the north to Constantinople and Southeast Asia. There were devastating plagues, famine, death, and great migration which caused people to move south. Empires and city-states collapsed including Teotihuacan in Mexico, the Anglo-Saxon victory over the Celts and invasions, and it contributed to the rise of Islam. Even in India, we see the Gupta Empire of Northern India collapsed by 543 AD as it too was overrun by the Huna during the mid-6th century. The Sasanian Empire in Persia also peaked during the 6th century.

The political, economic, and religious changes which took place because of this devastating 6th-century volcanic winter were profound. This is what might result from two VEI7s.


NOTE:

VEI km

3 frequency days =years %troposphere plume km km km3 delta
0 0.000001 0.000000003% 0.1 earth 31,879,029
1 0.00001 1 0.0 0.00000003% 0.3
2 0.0001 14 0.0 0.0000003% 1.0
3 0.001 90 0.2 0.000003% 3.2 troposphere 3 31,910,116 31,087
4 0.01 540 1.5 0.00003% 10
5 0.1 4,380 12 0.00032% 32 stratosphere 15 32,024,304 114,188
6 1 18,250 50 0.003% 100 mesosphere 50 32,381,370 357,066
7 10 182,500 500 0.032% 316 thermosphere 85 32,735,345 353,975
8 100 1,500,000 4,110 0.3% 1,000 exosphere 600 38,166,299 5,430,954
9 1,000 10,000,000 27,397 3.2% 3,162
10 10,000 90,000,000 246,575 32.2% 10,000

 

Carney of Bank of England Claims Climate Change Will Make Pensions Worthless


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney using climate change to claim that pension funds will be worthless? He is just insane or a fraud using this to cover up the pension fund crisis?

SK

ANSWER: There is just no possible way that climate change has anything to do with pensions. We actually have major institutions asking us to generate a theoretical green portfolio that DOES NOT LOSE MONEY just so they can claim they have some “green” in their portfolio.

Any investment in “green” companies has resulted in major losses. So there is no logic to what Carney is saying unless it is a cover-up for the pension crisis that is unfolding. Governments have ordered pension funds to buy government debts and then they take interest rates down to negative. The governments, without climate change, are ensuring that pensions will be worthless. It seems that he is using climate change as the excuse for the pension system failure.

He is clearly demonstrating what the elites think of the people – just stupid!

The Climate Change of the 1840s


QUESTION: OK, you have shown articles from the 1930s and 1970s where they talked about climate change. So are you saying that people have always been talking about climate change for decades? This is not something new I presume.

SK

ANSWER: The climate has always changed. Even during the 1840s when there was a major Sovereign Debt Crisis in the USA, there was also the issue of climate change. Here is an article from Australia back in 1846 speaking about climate change.

Here we have Climate Change being discussed in the United States also in 1846. The comment was that they saw all four seasons in a single day.

There is nothing new. You can search the newspapers and find periods during which climate change was being discussed. Here during 1846, this is when the earth was still coming out of the Little Ice Age. There too they were talking about climate change.

Climate has ALWAYS changed.  I  do not see how we can suddenly pretend it has never changed and since it is, OMG, we must have caused it

Is Climate Change Dispute the Same As the Fall of Rome?


Climate Change has become a fanatical religion because there is no proof and it rests entirely on belief. This is taking on the traits of the religious dispute which marked the fall of Rome – Pagans v Christianity. Like the Pagans, they immediately attack anyone who dares to disagree with them and they will not tolerate even a discussion. That was very much the same tactics employed by the Pagans.

What is clear is that the volcanic activity is increasing thanks to Solar Minimum. We now have another eruption going on in Mexico the residents call “El Popo.” This is the most active volcano in Mexico. It is not expected to be extremely dangerous. The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6-7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter.

The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater. The accumulative impact could be similar insofar it causes crop failures and thus a significant impact on agricultural prices. This is also concerning given the rise in earthquake activity in the Caribbean.

Recently, the Viking Rök stone, which is an ancient five-ton granite slab erected in southern Sweden sometime during the 9th century AD, has recently been translated after stumping scientists for more than 100 years. It turns out that it is referring to climate change when crops failed during the 6th century AD. We know that during the 6th century, there was a major climate catastrophic event which resulted in 50% of the population of Scandinavia starved to death. This event during the 6th century was a major volcanic event that devastated the human population globally.

We have further documentation of a major volcanic event also recorded during the reign of the Byzantine Emperor Justinian. There was a truly tumultuous period where the climate turned violent with a volcanic winter, which enabled his many conquests as less organized societies were unable to cope with the effects. There was a mysterious fog that plunged over Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia casting them into darkness. This catastrophic event lasted for 18 months. The Byzantine historian Procopius wrote: “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year.”  Temperatures in the summer plummeted creating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell as far east as China during the summer causing starvation as crops failed. The Irish chronicles recorded that “a failure of bread from the years 536–539” took place.

The mysterious clouds which engulfed the world contributed to the era being called the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From a Swiss glacier, ice core samples were obtained at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine. They determined that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere during early in 536AD. Two other massive eruptions followed in subsequent years during 540AD and again during 547AD. What appears to have been three successive major volcanic eruptions, the Dark Ages entered a volcanic winter which plunged Europe into famine which lasted for nearly 100 years into 640AD. This was also a solar minimumwhich seems to correlate to an increase in volcanic activity.

With famine comes lower nutrition leaving the people more suspectable to disease. It appears that following the 546AD eruption, we then see the Justinian Plague (541-542AD) which was bubonic plague, involving Yersinia pestis, which struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. This plague spread rapidly throughout the Empire wiping out one-third to one-half of the entire population of the Eastern Roman Empire.

My concern is we are headed into a Solar Minimum which may be the steepest since the Little Ice Age of 200 years or more. The climate change fanatics have risen their claims to the level of a virtual religious belief. Even the Royal Family of British has split with Harry and his wife claiming they are “progressive” and have also bought into the whole human-caused climate change.

These climate activists will not listen to reason. They immediately seek to attack and demonize anyone who dares to oppose them. They have weaseled into governments and  DAVOS using a 16-year-old girl they dare to present as a climate authority.

The extreme antics of the Climate Activists seem to be adopting the hostile role of the Pagans during the fall of the Roman Empire. They too were claiming that society was doomed because the Christians would not worship their gods and the gods were angry. The climate was turning colder which was indeed resulting in mass migrations south as the Romans called them the barbarians.

We seem to be experiencing the same sort of division with intense hatred being hurled at anyone who seeks to argue against the Climate Activists. Religion is declining and progressivism (Marxism) is rising and the core of the Climate Activists is to destroy modern society blaming the Industrial Revolution for the entire warming period post-1850 which was the normal cyclical rise from the Little Ice Age.

Image result for chart of solar minimum and maximum roman empire

This is a very similar clash that divided the Roman Empire and set its final decline in motion. Here we are once again headed into Solar Minimum with the risk of cold weather resulting in serious mass starvation.

The Maya originally also declined into the 6th century AD, and then as the climate began to improve after the Volcanic Winter of the 6th century, this is when the Maya constructed Chichen Itza which was a major ceremonial focal point in the Northern Maya Lowlands from the Late Classic (c. 600–900AD). This became the only place where human sacrifices seemed to have taken place and they were most likely to appease the gods after the devastation of the 6th century AD. One life was offered to save thousands.

 

Australia Fires – Nature or Global Warming?


QUESTION: Hello Martin,
I have been following your blog for a number of years and enjoy your more analyzed perspective on climate change. I am not fully convinced man [that] is causing the changes and I’d like to hear your opinion about the Australian fires. Living here in and amongst the carnage of the fires and the severe drought, it is hard to ignore all the arguments for climate change being a factor.
Kind regards,
CW

ANSWER: It is very easy for the global warming crowd to make claims that every hot day proves their theory or that a drought in Australia is the result of CO2. They offer ZERO historical evidence to support their claims. They simply make claims that this is the hottest year so that proves it is CO2.

I just published the earthquake data for the Caribbean. There has been a sharp increase in activity with solar minimum. All they would have to do is show the correlation. But they never do because there is zero evidence to support climate change is human induced. If that were true, then the data should reveal that there were no such events prior to the Industrial Revolution. They also ignore the historical record that shows climate has always changed. They do not even try to address those issues and the mainstream press just prints their claims as if they are uncontested facts without the slightest investigation.

There have been red tides that kill fish. Immediately, they blame farmers and chemicals. There are no farmers near me and there are no such chemicals that spill into the ocean from farming. All you have to do is Google it and you will see that the first recorded fish kill was 1648. There were reports of red tides in the Caribbean as early as 1530 (see: Red Tides HistoryKarenia brevis).

Australia has a history of droughts and bush fires. I have lived there and been to absolutely every area. The most well known of these are the Federation drought (1895-1903), the World War II drought (1939-45), and the recent Millennium drought (1997-2009). All three droughts were devastating to agriculture and the broader economy.

As far as major wildfires, they too predate the Industrial Revolution. There was the 1850-1851 Black Thursday bush fires of February 6th, 1851 in Victoria. That event resulted in burning the second largest area (approximately 5,000,000 hectares (12,000,000 acres)) in European-recorded history. That fire killed 12 people, but more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle. The current wildfire has reached 4.9 million hectares in NSW. Again, this is not something that is totally unknown or unprecedented. They do run the risk of making a new record high, but that does not prove that CO2 is the cause.

There was also the 1897-1898 Red Tuesday bush fire of February 1st, 1898 in Victoria. That engulfed 260,000 hectares (640,000 acres) and some 2000 buildings were destroyed.

These activists claim everything is CO2 without any evidence whatsoever and people accept whatever they just say. I can claim I sold the very high in the Dow in 1929 and bought the day of the low in 1932. Can you imagine if the press just repeated that claim without ever bothering to check to see if I was alive back then?

Nature itself demonstrates that these people are outright liars. The Amitermes meridionalis species are termites that are native to the northern part of Northern Territory of Australia, around Darwin. They build mounds that are typically 13 ft tall to survive both floods and bush fires. The animals have developed strategies to survive both floods and fires because they are historically common and not some new development post-1850 and the industrial revolution.

Even the giant redwood trees in California where bush fires are also common have adapted to the environment. They will grow burls which come to life in the event of a fire and can regrow the tree.

In Australia and California, which are both prone to bush fires, the plant and animal life have evolved over hundreds of years to adapt to wildfires. This does not support the claims that the fires in Australia are because of CO2. Everyone demands proof that this is not caused by CO2 instead of demanding that they support their wild claims with at least some correlation study

US Banks v Foreign Branches of US Banks


QUESTION: Marty, finally we decided to open a bank account in the USA which is not part of the CRS. But now we do not know which US-bank is safe enough and where to go! You mentioned that Goldmann Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase have derivative exposure linked back to Deutsche Bank. So those banks are not safe enough. The can fail in a contagion. You said also that Wells Fargo has the least derivative exposure.

In another article you said that the BANK of NEW YORK would be good as a custodian. Would the Bank of New York be safe enough in a contagion? The Bank of New York has a branch in Frankfurt. Could we open an USD-account in Frankfurt and still be outside the CRS? Or would this be a major fault.

Would you please give us a hint how to proceed as this choice is way over our head. Which bank is safe and outside of the CRS at the same time.

Thank you very much for sharing your experience and knowledge with us!
GB

ANSWER: Wells Fargo is a bank that is perhaps more accessible. Bank of New York has a big custodian business. Wells Fargo does not have offices outside of the US that provide services to retail or small business customers. Remember that any branches of US banks outside the United States are not part of the Fed system and are not FDIC insured. If you want a retail type of arrangement then Wells Fargo may be better. Bank of America has probably the best facilities for wiring money internationally online.

If you are dealing with a US branch of any bank, it must be FDIC insured and that is per person, not per account or banks. You do not want any account with a US bank’s branch outside the USA for they would be under the control of the local central bank.


NOTE: I do not receive any referral fees from either Wells Fargo or Bank of New York. We do notaccept any commission from banks or brokers for any referrals whatsoever. We maintain our strict policy of no conflicts or interest.

Banks – Interest Rates – Mortgages


COMMENT: Martin, as an avid follower, I took your advice to heart to try to fix our interest rate for the loan we have on our house. This was the answer I got from our direct advisor: “Have looked at your file, you can still enjoy your low-interest rate until 01/12/2020, in other words refinancing is only recommended at the earliest in November 2020. Your capital will then fall to 37,000 euros outstanding, the interest may already rise to 3 % (then you still benefit in November compared to refinance now!) ? Repocrisis is in the USA, Europe is supported by the ECB, which keeps interest rates low? Or am i wrong?” Isn’t this the perfect example of how well people are informed, even those working at the banks? Or do we already see some intended lingering of banks, trying not to get caught on the wrong side of the risk? Thanks for answering or using this in your private blog as a perfect example…

BL

ANSWER: They may have been instructed from above to keep loans floating because the Repo Crisis is demonstrating that rates are under pressure to rise, not fall!

If you have a mortgage that is floating, lock it in with a fixed rate.

Those looking to buy have a dilemma. On the one hand, real estate prices are high in many regions and you can wait for prices to come down before buying. On the other hand, when prices start to tumble it will be the result of an inability to get long-term fixed loans so prices will fall to where people will be able to get loans or pay cash. The solution may be to buy when you can get a long-term fixed mortgage and then hedge it with eventually shorting rates where there will be a liquid marke

Polar Shift – The Undefinable Risk?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am a new reader. I was recommended to look to your site when I was in a climate debate with a friend. They never tell us that the sun has a cycle which beats like your heart as you put it. I also never knew the north pole moved drastically. I am left speechless as to why these climate change people never address anything beyond CO2. Do you think the world will wake up before it is too late to discover these people are just liars?

HM

ANSWER: It has been in Europe which seems destined to collapse because of all the climate change regulations. It is a general consensus now among people I speak to in the German auto industry that they will be driven into bankruptcy before there is any recognition that this is all nonsense.

The North Pole is moving rapidly toward Siberia. The North Pole has always moved, but never at such a rapid pace in modern history. We have historical data from old ships’ logs covering the past 400 years. We know that the north magnetic pole has hung around northern Canada and was very steady. During the 20th century, it moved perhaps tens of several miles (kilometers) oscillating back and forth. It has been only during the last 50 years where the North Pole began to move northward. Then during the last 30 years, it began to accelerate rapidly. Suddenly it began to move about from about 6 miles (five to 10km) in a year to a sharp increase of about 37 miles (50 or 60km) per year.

The North Pole is now moving very rapidly towards Siberia. There has been considerable debate whether the complete disappearance of the woolly mammoths and other animals that thrived during the Ice Age was caused by a “quick-freeze” perhaps due to a pole shift, or some other major mystery of paleontology. There have been several carcasses discovered and the preserved food in specimens’ stomachs raised interesting questions. This is why the “quick freeze” catastrophe appears reasonable. Much of the support centers around the fact that the mammoths were quickly frozen, which explains the state of their food contents still in their stomachs, which has been also the main evidence for a quick freeze.

Actually, Birds Eye Frozen Foods Company ran an experiment based on heat conduction and the state of preservation of the stomach contents. They concluded that the atmospheric temperature had to quickly fall below -150°F (-100°C) (Dillow, J.C., The waters above: Earth’s pre-Flood vapor canopy, Moody Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 383–396, 1981). There have been some who tried to link this with the great flood from the Bible. This does not seems plausible in the least.

All we have are a lot of questions. There may be thousands of woolly mammoth carcasses still buried in the permafrost. Forget trying to fit this into the Bible. From carbon dating, the animals appear to have been frozen about 42,000 years ago. Recently, a 42,000-year-old Lena horse was discovered frozen in Siberian permafrost which contained the oldest liquid blood on record.

Clearly, whatever froze these animals was well beyond the Biblical flood or some 7,000 years ago. The speculation that seems to make the most sense was a polar shift which was perhaps sudden.