QUESTION: Marty, it was fantastic to meet you in Berlin and the conference really opened my eyes. Can’t wait for the sneak preview of the Trader level in Socrates. The Investor level is amazing providing a long-term outlook written by the computer. Your staff said the computer was writing daily trading reports in the Eighties, but you never told people it was the computer back then.

This brings me to the Bloomberg interview of Larry Summers who was still arguing against a rate hike before yesterday. The interesting point was his admission that economists cannot  forecast the business cycle as you said at the conference. Why do they not even try and then hold up the silver cross and hope you go away?

BR

ANSWER: Traditional Economics is incapable of forecasting for to start with, economists have no real world experience. It takes a trader to even see that there are patterns with markets and by no means are they some random walk if you use technical analysis, Elliott Wave, Gann, or whatever. Each type of analysis, other than fundamental, begins with the realization that this is not some random walk of a drug through the park. That theory of Random Walk was developed to explain their inability to forecast. You might as well say who knows if the sun will appear tomorrow, it is too complex to try to figure out how the havens move. There are too many planets and stars to track.

All the turning points in the Economic Confidence Model which it has forecast in my lifetime alone, even to the precise day, demonstrates that there is no such thing as a random walk. Yes there is complexity masquerading as chaos within which there are definitive patterns. Even the Maya discovered time. They studied the heavens as did the Babylonians. Economists seems to be unable to observe patterns and then claim anyone who does must be the devil. This is illustrating that social sciences, even if you dare call them a science, are living in the Dark Ages and you burn at the stake alive anyone who disagrees.

Keep in mind that if you can forecast the economy, then you alter politics. How can politicians run for office vowing to alter the future if they cannot manipulate the business cycle? Communism and socialism have failed because they attempted to alter human nature to manipulate the business cycle. Most modern Economists all accept as a general rule that they can manipulate society and the economy. Therein lies their self-interest and this is why they do not even want to examine what we have revealed exists. I do not care if we are not 100% correct. Being better than 50/50 consistently is impossible as pure luck or coincidence..

As for the pretense that 100% of the people would make reality take place if you could forecast is absurd because they would all act the same. The evidence of proper management is the story of Joseph from the Bible warning the Pharaoh there will be 7 years of plenty and 7 years of drought.There will always be two forces as in politics. This is an excuse why not to try. If we assume there will always be plenty and no cycle, then we are plain stupid as a society.

Some schools are starting to teach the Economic Confidence Model. It is the way to the future.