Many people have written in asking what is the future of the markets. While in any election, it is presumed that the right to vote belongs only to the citizens who are alive, there has always been a second vote. That second vote is carried out by international capital. As I have explained many times, the DEFINITION of a bull market is one that rises in terms of ALL CURRENCIES!
The Japanese bubble of 1989 was the same as the 1929 bubble in the USA. You can see that the Nikkei rose in value more so in dollars than in yen because the yen was rising. This is what made the bubble. Everyone was there. When the market broke, capital fled. This is now what we must sort out.
It really does not matter who you voted for, if you cannot look at the markets objectively regardless of what you think, then you will lose. All that matters is how capital will respond. Already people are looking at boycotting not just Facebook and Twitter in mass, but all companies that say they will stop all donations to any republican like Coke.
QUESTION: Martin, Thanks for a great report on your private blog regarding population and cycles. These Great Reset people are killing the whole world! As an American who has lived in China since 1996, and has followed you since your incarceration, I am a huge believer in cycles and a student of Asian philosophy and martial arts.
I am however having problems reconciling your prediction of the center of Finance moving to China with what I am currently seeing. Please tell me what I am overlooking. Yes, I understand that the west is going to decline compared to its current state while China rises but there still needs to be certain structures in place.
To get the power to shift to a different country you need:
Stability (China has this)
Innovation; “the parent of prosperity” ( Money tends to follow innovation and this requires an environment where people are free to tinker and the government does not overly tax or try to assume too much control) It’s a bottom-up process that has not been part of China since the Song Dynasty. So if they are returning to the Innovative Song dynasty they need to rule like the Song did. China has been going away from this since Xi came to power. Locking up its entrepreneurs or stealing their innovations and giving them to their National Champions. If this idea of National Champions had happened in the US we would still be using rotary dialed phones and driving Edsels!
Rule of Law: i. Bankruptcy China asked AmCham and other chambers to help to rewrite its bankruptcy law to enable capital to be quickly redeployed. I have helped to take a few companies through bankruptcy and they still have a very long way to go before capital can be efficiently redeployed. ii. Contracts are enforced by the Chinese government on foreign companies but there is no practical way to enforce them on the government.
Markets i. Credit markets The markets are not open to the public ii. Capital Markets. For every sin, that we read about on Wall Street my contacts inform me that China is two to three times worse. Ponzi and Madoff are alive and well in China.
FX and convertibility of the Chinese Yuan (The capital account is currently not open to the capital markets)
What am I missing? Thanks in advance to you and your team for addressing this issue.
ANSWER: This is not a personal forecast. But keep in mind that the time frame is post-2032, which will actually be after 2037. So a lot can change between now and then and Xi Jinping will be 84 in 2037. The most critical factor is the rule of law. If that is not definitive, you cannot write any contract because there is no way to enforce it. The culture of copyright infringement was prevalent in Hong Kong where people would come visit offices with knock-off Rolex watches to Gucci bags. A lot needs to change, but the decline from the West is critical. What we are witnessing with this Great Reset is the desperate attempt to keep the governments in power which will only lead to fragmentation. So China simply will become #1 because the West will break apart.
The tyranny of this Triumvirate is to rule the world from the United Nations. China will not surrender to this absurd tyranny. But in the process, they will indeed destroy the very consumer-based economy that was so critical to world peace. Neither China nor Russia will surrender to this tyranny.
Moreover, China moving to a digital currency is also to bypass SWIFT. They will create their own financial network that in the years ahead will be an alternative to the West rather than subordinate to the West. China is well aware that the core of the US economy is the consumer market. They are intent on developing that and this is how they surpass the USA as it stupidly allows the Triumvirate to destroy the foundation of the Western economy. They will surpass the USA in e-commerce.
We have issued a special report on the Sovereign Debt Crisis and why we even have this Great Reset and where we are headed. This report provides also a historical review of previous sovereign debt defaults and what was the outcome. Some people try to claims that this is the precursor to revolution. That only reveals that they are engaging in sophistry for that is by no means the routine outcome. There have been serial defaults by many nations even in Europe such as Spain and Greece. The Roman Empire never had a national debt. So those claiming the debt default produces revolution is just not true. Historically, there were no pension funds and rarely were there social programs before the Great Depression. We have to set the record straight in order to truly understand what lies ahead.
QUESTION: Are the central bankers really behind this digital currency? Will that end the dollar as the reserve currency?
Thank you for sharing your experience.
ANSWER: No the central bankers are NOT the instigators. It was Christine Lagarde who when at the IMF was threatening counties they would be blocked from Swift if they did not give up all those who had accounts in these tax havens. Germany went as far as to violate Swiss law and paid bribes to bankers to leak the records of the firms they worked for, which not even Hitler went that far. The entire digital currency idea was pushed by Christine Lagarde while at the IMF. But look closely, she is also a board of trustee member of Schwab’s World Economic Forum along with the new head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva. It was Schwab who got Legarde put into the IMF and then he put her in the central bank. He then had Georgieva put into the IMF.
People who always point to the central bankers really do not know what is going on behind the curtain. Schwab is in league with Bill Gates and George Soros. Gates was pushing the digital currency at the United Nations. Melinda Gates was pushing the digital currency at the G20. It was Gates directing Modi to cancel the currency in India and he did so without ever telling the central bank in advance!
All this nonsense that we are moving to this digital currency system that will dethrone the dollar is just laughable. The three main elements that are the reason why the dollar is the reserve currency has been
the US never canceled the currency,
there are no capital-controls so anyone can issue bonds in dollars worldwide, and
the US has the world’s largest consumer economy which has funded the rise of China, Russia, Japan, and Germany along with all of Europe.
A digital currency does not override any of that. China knows what is unfolding and they are doing two main strategies that will impact the dollar long-term – not short-term.
They are building their own consumer economy to reduce reliance on the West
They are developing their digital currency to REPLACE the Swift system
This conspiracy against the central banks has been going on a long-term and to me, it just seems to be a diversion to keep people looking in the wrong direction. I have worked with more central banks around the world than probably any independent analyst/adviser. I do not talk about theory – it comes from experience!
A number of people have asked for a confirmation of the array analysis. Here you can see that the Turning Point was November, and then we have Jan/Feb. Not that we have back-to-back Directional Changes in November and December. Whenever the Directional Change aligns with the Turning Point, that is a very important combination indicating a significant target. Volatility will start to rise in December and scale into a Panic Cycle by next June.
Many people have asked WHAT is behind the fact that gold declined and Bitcoin rallied. It appears to be the same trend that we saw coming out of China. It is not that Bitcoin is better than gold, as many are asking, but it seems to be a means to move money across borders outside of simple bank wires. With the world in absolute chaos, forget hyperinflation. There is a far greater risk of the government canceling currencies and they want to cancel the debt. They have reached the end of the rope and what is left is about to break. This wild theory of hyperinflation is just not plausible. They cannot keep finding by borrowing. This is what the Great Reset is all about — altering the entire system because it is about to collapse anyway.
Global debt is exploding thanks to the deliberate COVID-19 manufactured crisis. It is approaching $280 trillion going into year-end. We should no longer call it even debt because at this point, they are just creating the money and the central banks are buying it. Moreover, there is ABSOLUTELY no intention whatsoever to pay back anything.
Here is Trudeau, PM of Canada, who completely misrepresents the debt, and refuses to answer the question simply saying interest rates are at historic lows. They have created this crisis in order to default on the debt using the Coronavirus scam as their excuse. I cannot stress enough, GET OUT OF ALL GOVERNMENT DEBT ON ALL LEVELS – PERIOD!
Meanwhile, Trudeau has committed Canada to the World Economic Forum’s Agenda 2030.
COMMENT: I admit I have been a gold bug and I bought into Bitcoin. I have been following Socrates since you began forecasting Bitcoin. I want to say that it has convinced me that these fundamental forecasts are just like fake news. When Socrates said gold would decline and then Bitcoin would rise, that made no sense but it was right. All they talk about is how hyperinflation will take place when the dollar loses its reserve status. Socrates is a real gift to us all. I think it is time to take it public to fight these Silicon Valley terrorists trying to change our future.
ANSWER: Socrates just calls the shots as they unfold without bias or predetermined philosophy. I think what you have noticed between gold and bitcoin is interesting. Buffett sold his bank shares and first moved to gold shares. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought a stake in Barrick Gold in the second quarter. The total stake in Barrick Gold was worth about $564 million. Then Buffett sold 9 million shares of ABX trimming the position 44% from Q2. Buffett also sold off Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), PNC Financial Services, and M&T Bank, according to reporting by Yahoo Finance. The company also dropped its entire position in Costco.
Buffett, along with Bloomberg, is one of ABC News’ the “Super Rich Friends” and forget about his buying into gold and then selling it out. More importantly, he has been liquidating the bank stocks. This is what I have been warning that BigTech is moving in to replace banks. Don’t forget that Gates resigned from Berkshire to try to hide his influence from investment decisions behind Buffett. It has been Bill Gates calling for 10 more weeks of back in April lockdown! Bill Gates resigned both from Microsoft and Warren Buffet’s boards. It has been Bill Gates pushing to eliminate paper money and move digitally.
This is a coordinated effort with the World Economic Forum taking the visible lead. This is how all MANIPULATIONS take place. One person is upfront and gets all the press like Soros and the British pound. But there is a group with all the same positions. When the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis hit in 1998, it turned into a global liquidity crisis BECAUSE they all had the same position – Russian bonds. This is Klaus Schwab up front but all of BigTech is right behind him. Schwab has been cultivating heads of states to sell his Stakeholder Economics. He is an elitist and destroying the world economy to rebuild it from scratch in his mind is perfectly fine just hand out a guaranteed basic income as they are doing in the UK and in Canada to stay home.
QUESTION: Hi AE….think I finally get your message about money supply vs inflation. But aren’t we just dealing with a difference of semantics? If the gov’t prints endless amounts of currency, that HAS to. at some point, impact prices etc. which in turn, eventually leads to a collapse in confidence. (Savers can’t afford to buy anything.) What am I missing here?
ANSWER: It’s a question of what comes first – the chicken or the egg. First, we have the collapse in tangible assets and people will then hoard their money and spend less fearing the future. The revenue declines for governments which then forces the government to create more which use to be debasement before paper money, and today we have debt which can be posted as collateral to even trade which is now also money that pays interest as it first began during the American Civil War.
The classic definition of hyperinflation is taken from the 1956 work by Phillip Cagan who wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation. Cagan defined a hyperinflationary episode as beginning in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and ends when it drops below 50% per month. This is the standard definition.
The general population keeps the bulk of their wealth in non-monetary assets primarily real estate which made the 2007-2009 financial crisis far more serious than a stock market crash. The higher middle-class population outside the USA view monetary amounts, not in terms of the local currency but more so in dollars taking an international perspective. Only Americans tend to be myopic and see the world all in dollars. That’s why you constantly see these people yell the dollar will crash without ever looking outside the USA even once.
The international view of assets in dollars is also a direct result of not just the fact that the USA is the largest core economy, but the dollar is the reserve currency of the world BECAUSE there are also no restrictions on issuing debt in dollars in foreign countries imposed by the USA, and the fact that the US dollar has never been canceled. You can still spend a $5 bill from 1861.
While the analysis by academics has focused on classifying hyperinflation, they seem to lack any understanding of the real causes of all hyperinflations attributing them to have been caused by government budget deficits financed by currency creation. Peter Bernholz analyzed 29 hyperinflations (following Cagan’s definition) and concluded that at least 25 of them took place because of money creation.
These academics have also wrongly assumed that the necessary condition for hyperinflation is the use of paper money. They obviously lack any understanding of the monetary system pre-1700 when coins were gold or silver coins. The idea that hyperinflations in history are confined to paper money has seriously harmed the entire understanding of the mechanism behind hyperinflation. They see to have ZERO understanding of the history of coinage which provides a definitive historical record.
They will typically point to the French hyperinflation of 1789–1796 and claim that it took place after the introduction of a non-convertible paper currency, the assignat. They have for more than 100 years looked at this idea that money has to be commodity-based. They never apply that theory as to how Germany, Japan, and China have all risen to the top without gold and Russia, rich in gold, has languished economically.
Perhaps it simply takes a trader to see how hyperinflation even begins well in advance. Hoover explained how capital acted in 1931 rushing from one currency to the next as nation after nation defaulted, but any professional trader who was on a dealing desk in 2010 when Greece turned to the IMF for help saw exactly the same patterns. When they drew first blood with the collapse of Greece, they turned and asked: Who is next? They started selling Portugal, Spain, Italy and were even moving against France. That is how a REAL financial contagion operates.
Historically, it is NOT that people lose confidence in the money because the government is simply creating more! It is the collapse in the CONFIDENCE in the economy first (absent war), and then this migrates to the CONFIDENCE in government collapsing. This has historically led to hoarding when the money is just coins or converting to other currencies (capital flight) which has been paper (i.e. Germany & France). It is the sequence that then leads to forcing the government to enter a death spiral where they create money to try to maintain their existence. The government will typically then collapse.
This is the same problem with the myth about interest rates. The claim is that rising interest rates are BEARISH. All they remember is the tail-end. The rates rise and the market declines. When you look at it objectively, markets rally with rising interest rates. Just look at this entire rally.
The ECB cut rates to negative in 2014. When we look at the Dax in Price and in dollars, the peak was March 2015. The lower interest rates have completely FAILED to “stimulate” the economy as has been the great expansion of the money supply.
This absurdity that simply increasing the money supply will cause inflation is the typical sales pitch for the last 50 years. If gold truly rallied to keep pace with inflation, then since 1980, it should be trading at the $12,000+ level. OBVIOUSLY, there is something else going on. This is where it takes a global perspective to understand when the breakout will come and precisely when will the CONFIDENCE shift from hoarding cash to spending it because it will be worth even less next month.
QUESTION: Why are bankers never prosecuted? The New York courts are not trustworthy. Can you explain why this is allowed to go one all the time?
ANSWER: It is very simple and the shareholders are the ones who are being defrauded. The banks can routinely engage in fraud all they want. The individuals are NEVER prosecuted because the government knows they will not get huge fines from an individual. The bank is fined and pays vast amounts of money, but the bankers themselves are never prosecuted. It is raw corruption. The very same bankers go on to commit the very next crime. They get bonuses for the money they make, and if caught, they keep the bonus and the shareholders pay the fine.
I personally would NEVER recommend a bank stock for that reason. The bonuses were paid out even during the 2007-2009 crisis. The S&P 500 Financial Index just retest the 2007 high compared to the rest of the market. The corruption between the courts, the government, and the banks is starting to wear very thin.
QUESTION #1: If China is held liable for the virus damage then why could we not void all the bonds they hold as a payment for their damage to our economy? That would free up some debt and be a stimulus as well it would seem to me. The CCP is working every day to bring down the USA and this release of a virus that has crushed our economy. Yes, this is part of a global cabal for sure. MTB
ANSWER#1: If the US, Europe, or Canada ever did that, they will forfeit their credit standing and nobody else will ever trust them again.
QUESTION #2: Why are you pro-Republican and anti-Democrat?
ANSWER #2: I understand it may come off that way, but I do not believe this is what you would remotely call a standard Republican v Democrat election. Don’t forget, when Trump was first elected, even the career Republicans were against him. Remember Lyndsey Grahm smashing his phone and John McCain saying he did not want Trump at his funeral. I have dealt with Washington for a long time. When Reagan was elected, he was just a state governor with no Federal experience. They told me back then that they were not happy but they would train him. Traditionally, they DO NOT like outsiders. It has ALWAYS been that way.
I do not see this as a normal election. I think Biden is mentally not all there. They want someone who is NOT hands-on like Trump. The bureaucrats want to run the government and the president just gets in the way. I see Biden as the same a Bush, Jr. who had no clue what Cheney was doing. You do not see him running around giving speeches even like Obama. Biden is a place-holder. My fear is that this Great Reset is a real agenda and they are trying to take over the United States. Why do you think all the Tech companies are blocking anything negative about Biden? They have been promised a piece of the action when the digital currency is introduced. The Democrats have already put in legislation to create the digital dollar. Perhaps you have no problem getting a Digital Passport to be able to travel anywhere. They will be coming. This will be just like the Nazis – Papers Please! Social Media tycoons have censored Trump 65 times – Biden ZERO!
I know many of these people. They have done everything they could possibly do to discredit me because we were the largest institutional adviser in the world. They are scared to death of that. Our computer writes over 1,000 reports every day on every instrument around the globe. Nobody covers the world like this and nobody correlates the world which allows us to see a tsunami coming which is not domestic in origin.
I am independent. I am not a fan of career politicians regardless of their party. I have worked on both sides of the aisle. I have seen politics close up.
COMMENT #3: Sir,
It’s interesting. My practice had a board meeting. There were 14 people gathered around a group of desks arranged in a circle. Of the 14 only 4 were wearing masks. The younger partners.
When dealing with patients, I take my mask off and allow my patients to do so as well. I tell them that they know the risks via the TV and to do what they want. Interestingly, the at-risk really old and immune compromised keep their masks on. Only 3 patients and family kept theirs on. The rest are relieved to take them off. The 3 were Biden supporters. I asked.
You ever have a moment in your life where you did something because you were caught up in the moment, like-minded people around you? Reinforced by the echo chamber of the message repeatedly playing. Later you think, damn that was stupid. These were typical events when you were young and dumb. I think people are caught up in the moment and can’t see beyond. As my First Sergeant use to say, “The masses are asses. “
A lot of people can’t think for themselves nor evaluate data well or both. I’m not an expert but at least I question and try. And it’s not just individuals but groups as well. What’s the difference between Australians and Americans? They were caught but we weren’t. I think this translates to the difference between national character as well.
Keep up the good work
REPLY #3: You are correct. I see people driving alone even with masks on. Even the box I bought of masks states plainly these masks “do not eliminate exposure to the risk of any disease or infection.” Yet if you do not have one, they tackle you in Australia, the third time without one you go to prison in France, and you will get beaten in many other parts of the world without one. It really has become insane.
QUESTION #4: Yesterday where you talking about a big reset in the economy, on the first hand here in Europe there Europe states are redoing all present dept to perpetual bonds. It sounds very nice but there are a few things bothering me. What will the consequences be for central banks, pensions funds, and others sitting with those bonds? If they have a return rate of 0% or lower are the value in the practice zero or negative. Unless it’s possible to force the state to redeem those in the future. Overtime will they have no value at all because inflation will destroy them. If Europe and the world will go over to a two monetary system with digital currencies, are they going to have a two monetary system?
If it should work over the whole world could it be a problem to run this currency on their own servers, or will they be forced to use the new blockchain infrastructure being built now? If they move swift and smart should it be possible to do it to a new global currency? It will be very hard for other states to stop it if it’s backed up of states, and if they are first and are grown big will block a lot of other actors. Are there other realistic ways to destroy money or debt? If I recall right has Argentina been doing default. How many years did it take for the country to come into world society again? What were the consequences for ordinary people? You have both poor middle-class and rich without doing a definition of what you need to earn or own to be in each group.
I have another issue as well. Regarding trading between the Western and Asia. Are we not shooting our self in the foot there? You have been traveling a lot in Asia I have been there some as well. I’m always impressed by how hard people are working and educate them self. A high educated people are in today’s world hardcore as I see it. There should we look at our own schools and education system, is it possible to compete with it? I know it’s a good chance Asia and China will take over. It’s not that strange they got the people and people are well educated that’s not stoppable, we have to adapt. If we do not handle our cards well here will we need to sell cheap sun cars to the Chinese when they are doing a holiday?
We have a third issue as well. No matter what they think is good or bad. Chinese Japanese cultures are very old. Actually much older than the Roman imperial and it has lasted for a much longer time. Those cultures and their way of solving problems over centuries must have some benefit other ways should they not survive for so long time. As I understand it is just Xi Ping the last emperor in a long row, even if it’s under the “communist” flag, Chinese is not communist now if it not suit there political purposes. You have been there and I’m sure you have seen a lot of sides of the country. Both countries imperials and companies has it up and downs. Regards BK
ANSWER #4: The central banks holding the debt will simply become part of their capitalization. I have been in meetings with Central Bankers and pointed out the problem with pension funds already even at 1%. I have explained that they will have to provide some yield in return at least 3% by our calculations in exchange for making them perpetual. They will not default outright like Argentina. Politically that would be disastrous internationally. Keep in mind, even these perpetual bonds will eventually be traded just like the British Consols.
As far as China is concerned, there seems to be just this desperate need to have an enemy. They get to blame the COVID mess on China, despite the fact that it has been the reaction in the West that is the crisis – not China. I explained from the outset this was a natural virus and not a biological weapon for the kill ratio was too low. It may have been created in a lab, but it was still in the category of a natural virus rather than a weapon. That rules out any deliberate attack by China.
Your third question needs to be corrected. The first unified Chinese coinage began only about 240BC. Prior to that, there were the Waring State issues like knives. The Roman Imperial did not begin until 27BC, which is correct. However, the Roman Republic began with bronze coinage much earlier. Their first silver coinage appeared in 280BC which was comparable to the Greek weight system – a didrachm.
That issue aside, the primary difference is that Western culture thinks in a straight line. Asian culture understands everything is a cycle. That is a major difference.