Biden Spreads Inflation Lies on Twitter. Jeff Bezos’ Response Is Priceless | DM CLIPS | Rubin Report


Posted originally on the The Rubin Report  on Rumble on May 23, 2022

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Jeff Bezos calling out Joe Biden’s inflation lies. Jeff Bezos attacked Joe Biden’s statement which connected inflation with corporate tax rates. Even Democrats like Bezos are turning on Biden as the US economy continues to tank amid inflation, supply chain problems, and market crashes.

Interest Rates & The Chaos Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted May 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Your forecast for the Panic Cycle here in Australian politics was correct and it beat all the polls as you did in BREXIT. Our new leader is a full-on board with the WEF climate agenda and will have all cars electric by 2030. As you say, in war you take out the power grid first. I guess this makes the power grid even more of a first-strike target.

I want to thank you for Socrates. It is great to have something that provides a non-emotional forecast. The forecasts you publish on so many things around the world are amazing and accurate.

So my question is this. You were correct that rates would rise, or Socrates was, and you said that there would be shortages with a commodity cycle mixed with war rising and civil unrest. So now that the central banks are in a state of panic, what do you expect with the panic cycle in 2023 in the Fed?

ANSWER: You are correct. Too many people attribute everything to just me as if I have a crystal ball. The forecasts are from the model. Nobody could be forecasting so many things for 40 years on a gut feeling and be correct. The odds of humanity are against that.

People tend to forecast what they want to happen. It is just an inherent human flaw. But it is also what drives markets. The majority of people are influenced by the direction of the trend. So a rising market makes people feel bullish and a declining market makes people more pessimistic. That is just a fact of life. So the ONLY hope for an accurate forecast MUST come from a non-emotional source. Staring into 2023 just looks like total chaos.

I do get the occasional email asking me how I cope with my own forecasts. I look at it this way. If I said here comes my fist, I’m going to punch you in the face. Do you just stand there and smile or do you dodge the punch, or defend against it? Isn’t it better to know something is coming to prepare?

It is more like an out-of-body experience for me personally because these forecasts are the computer and I have to stand here and watch as well as live through them. It is a different experience to forecast these events years in advance and live through them myself.

I am concerned that when you look around the globe, so many things have serious targets and panic cycles in 2023. Even in the war cycle, the computer has the highest aggregate bar for 2023. The central banks are unable to prevent inflation because this is a shortage crisis, not a speculative boom where raising interest rates will reduce the buying.

While the Central Bankers think this is clear sailing, they have entered uncharted waters. The risks of the markets discovering they cannot control the economy anymore will raise the crisis to extreme levels as we head into 2023.

Can Cryptocurrencies Survive WWIII?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

Posted May 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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QUESTION: Hi Marty, You mention that cryptocurrency has been orchestrated to get people accustomed to cryptocurrencies for the end goal of the Great Reset – all digital currency so they can tax, absolutely every transaction. All popular blockchains are transparent and provide no privacy but there are some blockchains that do provide privacy and are uncensorable. Do you think crypto could ultimately live up to its name?

Alan

ANSWER: The sales pitch behind cryptocurrency is seriously flawed. (1) they depend entirely upon the government; with the stroke of a pen, they can all be seized; (2) They also depend upon a power grid; (3) they also become dependent upon others accepting them. But note that the last 12 years from 2020 to 2032 were dominated by a rising authoritarian level of government. That means you better not trust that they will simply standby and allow some alternative currency to defeat them. It’s not going to happen. Anyone who disagrees has unprecedented confidence in politicians. I’m amazed when people believe that government really cares about them.

The scenario they put out is that these are outside the fiat system and thus somehow surviving. The only thing outside the fiat system as they want to call it is EVERYTHING tangible from real estate, stocks, collectibles, and precious metals. There is a much greater track record behind those and how they survive than cryptocurrencies. If the world went to Hell in a hand-basket as they say, there is no power grid, then how is a cryptocurrency going to survive?

In a Mad Max event, the #1 store of value will be food. Forget anything dependent upon the power grid. When the United States wages war as in Iraq, the first thing they do is take down the power grid, the communications, and then the water supply. Step back and look at Putin and Ukraine. He seized the nuclear power station, the biggest in Europe, but he did not shut it down. He did not knock out the communications and he did not attack the water supply. All of that PROVES he had no intention of conquering Ukraine, but he was in fact defending the separation of Donbas.

If we were to get into a direct war with Russia or China, they will attack those three key sectors — power, communication, and water. How are cryptocurrencies going to survive such an event?

Call me old fashion, old-school, or just old. But the most PRACTICAL thing you can do is have pre-1965 silver coins that the average person can recognize and see the date knowing that it is valuable. We have all seen those videos where a person is offered a silver bar or a chocolate bar, and they take the chocolate. DO NOT judge everyone by yourself. Just because you understand something does not mean everyone does.

Cryptocurrencies are TRADING VEHICLES but not a long-term asset class. Our computer called the top in the cryptos, and it has been the ONLY unbiased forecaster out there. This is why so many major institutions and central banks look at our system — it has NO conflict of interest and NO HUMAN EMOTIONS (like Spock of Star Trek). Someone neck-deep in crypto will never see a decline because they are influenced by their own position.

Socrates independently writes over 1,000 reports every day covering markets around the world. We are NOT blocked in China or Russia because they KNOW this is written by a computer and it is objective. Here is a video providing just a quick overview of the various markets and economic statistics that are available. There are not enough analysts in the world to write these many reports daily.

New Jersey Dept of Environmental Police, Set up Snitch Line to Report Contraband Plastic and Styrofoam Users


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance

Perhaps in the grand scheme of all things facing us, this action by New Jersey may seem a little silly; however, it’s still nuts.

Comrades, starting today it is illegal in New Jersey to have plastic or paper bags in stores for shoppers.  Additionally, restaurants, cafeterias and food trucks are forbidden to serve take-out food in Styrofoam-like products. Also, all retailers must stop selling polystyrene foam products like plates and cups.  Drinking straws require a permit for restricted distribution as monitored by the Department of Health.

To ensure legal compliance within the Garden State, officials in New Jersey have established a snitch hotline for citizens to call the Dept of Environmental Police (DEP) and report dissident violators, while the state ministry of citizen compliance have created a “WARN DEP” app to facilitate easier snitching on your neighbors if you spot them using contraband containers.

“The ban will go into effect [May 4th] nearly 18 months after the law was signed by Gov. Phil Murphy.” ARTICLE

We cannot get to environmental justice without citizen participation, comrades.

Report this rule breaker, there’s an app for that!

Fed Governor Christopher Waller Predicts We Have Reached Peak Inflation, Here Is What they Will Not Say


Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance

Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here.  All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.

The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose.  They did not make a mistake.  The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates.  It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees.  WATCH:

The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

So that’s why they waited.  But here’s the worse part….

All of these U.S. Fed monetary policymakers are in full ideological alignment with the global and central bankers.  They are all following the same Build Back Better agenda and policy instructions.

All of bankers know the shift from ‘dirty energy’, coal, oil, natural gas, will create inflation.  All of the bankers know there is no economic bridge within the plan to shift from oil to their unicorn dust.  All of the bankers know that shutting down oil exploration as a matter of western unified policy will, as a factual matter, destroy the economic systems that rely on energy….. which is to say everything.

All of these bankers know the severity of the inflation crisis this energy shift creates.   None of them do not know.

Everything they are doing is coordinated to assist the climate change agenda.

That’s what this is all about.

Everything is politically motivated.

Producer Price Index Sets New Record at 11.2 Percent Wholesale Inflation, Highest Rate Ever Recorded


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance 

he “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.

Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent.  The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.

The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting.  You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services.  I see support for that thesis within this data.

The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order.  Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences.  Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021.  The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).

The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften.  See Table B, Intermediate goods.  Again, modified to take out the noise:

While the yearly comparison for both processed and unprocessed intermedia goods is eye dropping, in the unprocessed intermediate demand goods, we are starting to see a lessening of monthly price increases.

In essence, prices have been rising so fast and for such an extended period of time, that we are now cycling through the rate of increase and starting to compare it to last year when the rate of increase was originally going high.  As a consequence, the rate of price increase will likely lessen, even though the actual price may still keep climbing within the manufacturing process.

The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.  In addition to the consumer prices reported yesterday, this wholesale price data is showing the most recent increases (March) in fuel and transportation costs.  For the next report these figures should now plateau.

♦ BOTTOM LINE – We have not yet reached PEAK INFLATION – However, the price increases from wholesalers to retailers are now at parity.  The increased price of things coming into the supply chain are now at similar rates of increase when compared to the stuff on the shelves.

Inflation from field to fork is now fully matriculated and embedded in the total economy as a result of two massive price waves (July to October 2021 and November to March 2022).  Those prices will never fall.

Highly consumable goods like food, fuel and energy will remain at approximately the price today for a period of around five months, then we will see the third wave kick in as the new higher harvest prices hit the processors in late summer.

The prices for non-essential durable goods, like cars, electronics, appliances etc. from this moment forth will now be determined by demand.   Highly sought after goods will increase in price as more customers chase fewer products.  However, ordinary or widely available durable goods will likely start to come down in price very soon as inventories climb because consumer spending has prioritized and dropped non essential goods from their shopping lists.

To put it more succinctly:  The stuff we need will cost more. The stuff we don’t need will cost less.

Let’s Go Brandon

Comments & Free Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Mar 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.

But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.

So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.

EM

COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.

All the best from Poland

and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw

VA

REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.

Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.

There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.

The Fed Has Spoken


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Dec 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Open Market Committee plans to taper its asset purchasing program by $30 billion per month. Starting in January, the central bank will begin buying $60 billion in bonds monthly, citing “inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market.”

As for interest rates, the Fed is considering as many as three rate hikes in 2020, followed by two additional hikes in 2024. This comes after the Fed artificially lowered rates to near zero for the longest amount of time in the history of the Federal Reserve.

“With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment,” the central bank stated. Unemployment reached a post-pandemic low of 4.2% last month, but nearly 7 million Americans are still unemployed.  “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement continued. Now, the central bank believes inflation will somehow reach 2.6% in 2020, with core inflation dropping to 2.7%.

The central bank sees reduced GDP growth this year, dropping the forecast to 5.5% from 5.9%. GDP in 2022 is now estimated to reach 4%, and 2.2% in 2023.

Inflation to Rise into 2034?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation continued to surge, reaching 5.4% in September. Janet Yellen has never been right about anything and keeps calling this “transitory,” as if it will vanish in a few weeks. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is supposed to measure a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, came in at 5.4% in September from a year earlier, well beyond expectations. However, our model was projecting a rise in inflation into 2021 which is 13 years up from the November 2008 low. It is interesting how the COVID restrictions with lockdowns came in on target with our computer’s forecast. Curious how events seem to fulfill the forecast when it is done by a computer rather than human judgment.

Nevertheless, as you can see from the chart, inflation has bounced on a month/month basis, but it has not yet reached the Downtrend Line. The long-term forecast beyond a mere decade projects the historical high will be due in 2034, which should exceed all previous highs. A month/month number above 1.05% will signal that inflation is breaking out, and we will indeed make all-time record highs going into 2034.

4.3 Million Quit Jobs in August – Vaccines?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The numbers are out — 4.3 million people in the US quit their jobs in August. This is the largest number since 2000. The leading sector is hotels and restaurants. I have a friend who has a daughter who had two jobs. She worked as a waitress/bartender at night and at a health food store during the day. She was very industrious, to say the least, and quite impressive. However, she quit the health food job because they demanded a vaccine. She said the bar owner was going to impose a vaccine rule and more than 50% of the staff said they would quit.

Meanwhile, New York’s bars and restaurants are hurting for business because of the vaccine mandates. Our most honorable leaders, who are most likely taking money from Pfizer lobbyists worldwide, are realizing that resistance is not futile. You can mandate vaccines and pretend they are 100% safe, but the truth always surfaces. The people can bring down the entire system if they simply refuse to participate.

Many journalists are too busy selling Biden’s propaganda about the vaccines. The FDA admits there are risks, but they, in their sole discretion, announced they “believe” the benefits outweigh the risk without any explanation of the analysis or a single word of caution (e.g., if you have certain conditions, you should not take the vaccine) despite doing so for other vaccines. So while the press and the Biden Administration are ignoring the facts and the trend, this only raises the question: How much has Pfizer and Moderna paid you?