The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.
Elsewhere, on Wednesday, the UK is expected to trigger Article 50 starting the European Union exit process. In EM we have monetary policy meetings in Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Mexico and South Africa. Banxico to hike by 25bp.
Recap of key global events:
Article 50 to be triggered on Wednesday
- The hawkish BoE and the short market position support GBP, but analysts see negative risks in the months ahead and expect a very slow start of the negotiations after the UK government activates Article 50 next week. Europe will be busy with the elections in France and Germany, while their immediate Brexit focus will be on the UK’s EU budget contributions. Markets may have to wait until the end of this year, or even early next year, to have a better view on the negotiations and the chances of a transition period.
US data and European CPI & conf. indicators dominate
- US: Expect a slight upward revision of 4Q GDP (final) to 2.0% from 1.9% previously. On Friday, we also look for personal spending growth of 0.2% m/m for February, unchanged from growth in January (just +0.1% in real terms). BofA looks for personal income growth of 0.4% mom, also unchanged from growth in the prior month.
- EA: Markets We expect March inflation at 1.7% driven by developments in Spanish electricity prices and liquid fuel prices in the Euro area. On PMIs we continue to interpret them carefully given the disconnect between ‘soft’ survey data and ‘hard’ activity data. We have argued before that when this is the case, other soft data (like national sentiment indicators) and hard data are usually more reliable for economic forecasting.
The week ahead in Emerging Markets
- There will be monetary policy meetings in Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Mexico and South Africa. We forecast Banxico hiking 25bp. Rating reviews in Russia and Bahrain.
* * *
A breakdown of daily key events in the coming week courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
- We’re kicking off things this morning in Europe with Germany where the March IFO survey is due out. The latest M3 money supply reading for the Euro area is also due this morning. Over in the US this afternoon the sole release is the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey for March.
- With little to highlight in Europe tomorrow, the focus will be on the US where we get the advance goods trade balance for February, wholesale inventories for February, consumer confidence for March, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for January and Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for March are due.
- Wednesday kicks off in Japan where retail sales and small business confidence data is due. Over in Europe the focus will be on the UK with the February money and credit aggregates data. In the US on Wednesday the only data due out is pending home sales.
- Turning to Thursday, during the European session the most notable data is due out of Germany where the first estimate of CPI in March is due. Also due out are various March confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the US on Thursday the early data is the third estimate of Q4 GDP and Core PCE, while initial jobless claims data is also due.
- The busiest day looks set to be reserved for Friday. In Japan we will get February CPI, industrial production and employment data, while in China the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s for March are due. In Europe we’ll get CPI reports for France and the Euro area along with Q4 GDP in the UK and unemployment in Germany. In the US data due includes February personal income and spending reports, PCE core and deflator readings, the Chicago PMI for March and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading revision.
- Away from the data the Fedspeak diary this week is packed. Today we see Evans and Kaplan speak, tomorrow we have George, Kaplan and Powell speaking along with Fed Chair Yellen (albeit at a conference which doesn’t suggest a focus on the economy or monetary policy), Wednesday see’s Evans, Rosengren and Williams speak, Thursday has Mester, Williams and Kaplan scheduled and Friday finishes with Kashkari. Away from that other important events this week include the BoE bank stress test scenarios today, a Scottish Parliament debate
* * *
Finally, focusing on the US events with consensus estimates, courtesy of Goldman
Monday, March 27
- 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +22.0, last +24.5)
- 01:15 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will participate in a panel discussion on “Monetary Policy in a New Economic Environment” at the Global Interdependence Center’s Central Banking conference in Madrid.
- 06:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a panel on economic conditions and the role of monetary policy hosted by the Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy at the Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Tuesday, March 28
- 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advance goods trade balance, February preliminary (GS -$64.5bn, consensus -$66.6bn, last -$68.8bn): We estimate the goods trade deficit narrowed $4.3bn to $64.5bn in February, following last month’s $4.4bn widening that we believe reflected a pronounced impact from the relatively early Chinese New Year, which likely shifted the timing of imports from February to January. Available port statistics in February suggest a sharp pullback in inbound container traffic, further evidence of the Chinese New Year shift; Wholesale inventories, February preliminary (consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%)
- 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.9%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 0.7% in the January report following a 0.9% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which rose to 5.6% from 5.2% in December.
- 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 115.0, consensus 114.0, last 114.8): We forecast that consumer confidence edged up to 115 following last month’s 3.2pt rise to a new cycle high. Our forecast reflects encouraging consumer sentiment data in February as well as recent stock market strength during most of the survey period.
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +15, last +17)
- 12:45 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give the keynote speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a forum on “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking” in Midwest City, Oklahoma. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 12:50 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech titled “Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities” at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected.
- 01:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated discussion at an event hosted by the Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations in Dallas, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 04:30 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on the history and structure of the Federal Reserve as a part of the West Virginia University College of Business Economics’ Distinguished Speaker Series. Audience Q&A is expected.
Wednesday, March 29
- 09:20 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a lecture on current economic conditions and monetary policy as a part of the DZ Bank’s International Capital Market’s Conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
- 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS +4.0%, consensus +2.1%, last -2.8%): Regional housing data released so far suggest a fairly strong rebound in contract signings for existing homes in February, possibly reflecting the unseasonably warm temperatures and limited snowfall during the month. We expect a 4.0% increase in the pending homes sales index that would fully reverse January’s 2.8% pullback. An increase of that magnitude would be particularly encouraging in the context of higher mortgage rates. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
- 11:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss the economic outlook at a Boston Economic Club luncheon.
- 01:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give a presentation titled “From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth; What a Different Four Years Makes” to the Forecasters Club of New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Thursday, March 30
- 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q4 (GS +1.9%, consensus +2.0%, last +1.9%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +3.0%, consensus +3.0%, last +3.0%): We do not expect a revision on an unrounded basis in the third estimate of Q4 GDP, where growth is currently reported at a 1.9% pace (qoq ar). While our base case entails an unchanged reading for headline GDP, we believe there is some risk of an upward revision to the personal consumption and business fixed investment components.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 25 (GS 240k, consensus 247k, last 261k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 18 (consensus 2,037k, last 1,990k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline sharply to 240k, reversing last week’s sharp rise that we believe largely reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella. State-level details suggest an impact from the storm on the order of 15k during the week. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent weeks, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.
- 09:45 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech on payment system improvement at the 10th Annual Risk Conference, hosted jointly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and DePaul University’s Center for Financial Services in Chicago.
- 11:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give a speech at the launch and learning community event for the Strong, Prosperous and Resilient Communities Challenge in New York.
- 03:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will take part in a moderated Q&A on economic conditions and the role of monetary policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Capital Markets Summit in Washington D.C.
- 04:30 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech on “The Importance of Financial Conditions in the Conduct of Monetary Policy” at a Financial Literacy Day & Laboratory Dedication event at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Audience Q&A is expected.
Friday, March 31
- 8:30 AM Personal income, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PCE price index, February (GS +0.12%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index, February (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (yoy), February (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.9%); Core PCE price index (yoy), February (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose 0.17% month-over-month in February, or 1.7% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.12% in February, or 2.1% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.5% increase in February personal income and a 0.3% rise in personal spending.
- 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, March (GS 56.0, consensus 56.9, last 57.4): We expect the Chicago PMI to edge down to 56.0 in March, following a sharp 7.1pt increase in February. The index is likely to remain at a level consistent with solid manufacturing growth, in line with incoming reports from other regional manufacturing surveys.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March preliminary (GS 97.8 consensus 97.6, last 97.6): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up an additional 0.2pt to 97.8 in the March final estimate, reflecting some further improvement among more timely measures of consumer confidence. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations declined three tenths to 2.2%, a new record low. However, median 5-year gas price expectations also dropped to a 12-year low, and in past research we’ve found a short-term relationship between these two measures that often results in a reversal in subsequent months. While we cannot rule out the possibility of a step-down in underlying views about the long-term inflation outlook, we see this as a tentative reason to expect a rebound over the next couple months.
- 10:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated discussion on the economy and the Federal Reserve system at the Annual Banking Law Institute seminar in Minneapolis. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 10:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will participate in an interview on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education forum in New York. No media Q&A is expected.
Source: Goldman, Bofa,