Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Mar 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Back in 1967, the International Global Atmospheric Research Program was established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but included climate. The following year, this was the beginning of biased studies which suggested that a possibility of a collapse of the Antarctic ice sheets would raise sea levels catastrophically. They put forth the idea that a big enough rise in global temperatures would eventually melt the world’s glaciers. They then pointed to a retreat of mountain glaciers since the 19th century claiming this was very apparent in many regions. This trend, they argued with linear logic, would release enough water to raise the sea level a bit. They argued that starting during the 1960s, several glacier experts warned that part of the Antarctic ice sheet seemed unstable. If the huge mass slid into the ocean, which did not happen, the sea-level rise would wreak great harm, perhaps within the next century or two. They completely failed to point out that there had historically been cycles in climate and even the poles were not at the same location but have flipped and moved about the Earth.
We find one of the early articles that predicted the average temperature would be 9 degrees hotter by now appeared in 1970. The publication was Popular Mechanics back in January 1970. The analysis was very seriously flawed as always because they take whatever trend is in motion and project it out without end. They completely fail to comprehend that there is any cycle within anything. This is the greatest trap in forecasting. The entire Global Warming trend has been created with this very dangerous and stupid method of linear forecasting.
All of these forecasts are indistinguishable from looking at the Dow Jones Industrials and observing it has risen 5% per year since 2009 and therefore, it will never correct once again and it will continue to advance by 5% every year into the endless future. This type of analysis simply does not qualify as any valid method of analysis by taking whatever trend is in motion and forecasting it will never end. That analysis was set in motion following 1967.
We have run our models on this movement of blaming humans for climate change. Unfortunately, this crazy analysis will not reach its peak until 2032. Governments will continue to embrace it as an excuse to raise taxes. So it looks like as government needs money, they do not care about the environment. They will use this climate change as the excuse to impose new types of taxes as if lining their pockets with other people’s money will save the planet – it is only to save their power.