Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
RE-Posted Oct 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
An independent audit of the key temperature dataset that is being used by climate models has exposed more than 70 problems with the data which render it “unfit for global studies.” Problems include zero degree temperatures in the Caribbean, 82 degree C temperatures in Colombia and ship-based recordings taken 100km inland. The audit has concluded that the studies are deliberately exaggerating temperatures to support a theory of global warming utilizing global averages that are far less certain than what is being forecast.
The audit has revealed that “that climate models have been tuned to match incorrect data, which would render incorrect their predictions of future temperatures and estimates of the human influence of temperatures.” Furthermore, the Paris Climate Agreement adopted 1850-1899 averages as “indicative” of pre-industrial temperatures is “fatally flawed.” The entire Paris Climate Agreement has an agenda to eliminate effectively the advancement of society and attempt to reset the clock to the pre-Industrial Revolution. This entire theory that before the Industrial Revolution, our planet’s atmosphere was somehow pristine and uncontaminated by human-made pollutants has been also proven to be completely bogus. Bubbles trapped in Greenland’s ice has revealed that we began emitting greenhouse gases at least 2,000 years ago. The Romans even constructed the first aqueduct was built in 312 BC because there was a serious problem with water pollution. Seneca (c 4BC-65AD), the adviser to Nero, wrote in 61AD: “No sooner had I left behind the oppressive atmosphere of the city [Rome] and that reek of smoking cookers which pour out, along with clouds of ashes, all the poisonous fumes they’ve accumulated in their interiors whenever they’re started up, than I noticed the change in my condition.”
This new audit argues even the most simple basic quality checks had not been done on the HadCRUT4 data which is managed by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The audit exposed that estimates were made of the uncertainties arising from thermometer accuracy, homogenization, sampling grid boxes with a finite number of measurements available, large-scale biases such as urbanization and estimation of regional averages with non-complete global measurement coverage.
The audit has exposed the dishonesty in this entire scheme and it appears to be directed at the goal of reducing the population. Anomalies it has identified include at St Kitts in the Caribbean, the average temperature for December 1981 was zero degrees, normally it’s 26C. For three months in 1978, one place in Colombia reported an 82 degrees Celsius average – hotter than the hottest day on Earth. Then in Romania, one September the average temperature was reported as minus 46°C, which has never happened. The data showed that supposedly ships would report ocean temperatures from places up to 100km inland. The paper also points out that the most serious flaws identified was the shortage of data. For the first two years, from 1850 onwards, the only land-based reporting station in the Southern Hemisphere was in Indonesia. Then there were ship observations at the time but Australian records had not started until 1855 in Melbourne, behind Auckland which started in 1853. This data appears to have been just made up.
According to the HadCRUT4 calculation of coverage, it was almost 1950 before there was data from even half of the Southern Hemisphere was available. Yet they claim global warming has taken hold for 100 years prior. Then the Paris Climate Agreement takes the HadCRUT4 average from 1850 to 1899 as an “indicative” temperature or pre-Industrial Revolution. There is absolutely no possible way the data set being used to support all this Global Warming is even valid for any forecast.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Oct 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
In the Netherlands, the high court has now ordered the Dutch Government to cut greenhouse gases by 25% before end 2020. The court called it a Violation of the duty of care pursuant to articles 2 and 8 ECHR. The state must now further reduce greenhouse gases. Then we have the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that now says coal-fired electricity must end by 2050 if we are to limit global warming rises to 1.5C. They have NEVER heard of cycles and they simply project whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion. They never take nature into account and ignore everything else in the entire world not to mention volcanoes.
Rather than actually outlaw anything, the governments prefer to PUNISH people, which is far more profitable, by raising taxes dramatically. Now a Harvard study shows that large-scale Wind Farms also raise the temperature.
The way you do research is you test EVERY connection – you do not start with a presumption and then go off and try to prove something. On top of that, there are cycles to absolutely everything. There is nothing void of a cyclical nature.
Indeed, the 20th century will be remembered for four scientific revolutions–Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Chaos and Fractal Geometry. The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe. The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.
Lorenz also discovered in 1969, that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term Butterfly Effect in 1969 regarding this fascinating discovery. Very tiny changes in what might appear to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system creating a substantially different outcome. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”
Chaos theory was thus born. The Butterfly Effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions whereby a very small change at one place in a nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state. The effect derives its name from the theoretical example of a hurricane’s formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before. Lorenz’s early insights marked the beginning of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics but virtually every branch of science–biological, physical and social. In meteorology, these discoveries have led some to presume that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, such assumptions ignore the duality structure and the true importance of the Strange Attractor.
Lorenz demonstrated the profound realization that may be far more important than Einstein’s Relativity or even the discovery of Quantum Mechanics is matched only by Fractal Geometry. Lorenz demonstrated that the very idea of a deterministic system with formal predictability limitations does not actually exist; in other words, the Cartesian universe. I believe that Lorenz’s discoveries have overshadowed both relativity and quantum mechanics for they have truly opened the door to the Grand Unified Theory or the Theory of Everything if someone is willing to take that first step through the door.
Cyclical Analysis is the key to understanding the universe for it is the very essence of how all energy moves. It is the wave in light, but it is the attempt to predict where the particle will appear in the wave formation. If we look at the atomic structure it is the same design structure we see at the planetary level. The structural design and integrity are the same on all levels. In other words, it is fractal in composition. The same pattern repeated over and over again.
It is really pathetic how these charlatans ignore science on every level to produce a forecast that only puts money in their pockets. NOBDOY will fund anything to the contrary because governments are not interested unless it puts money in their pockets.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis
Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Do you concur with the IMF WARNING?
ANSWER: The IMF said: “No financial regulatory framework can or should aim to reduce the probability of crisis to zero, so regulators should remain humble.” What the IMF is warning about is the risk of interest rates rising and countries who have borrowed in dollars are presenting a major Emerging Market Debt Crisis. Then we have the two-fold risk is the currency and the interest rates. Many others have borrowed but with floating rates. Our model is warning that rates are going to more than DOUBLE. In the face of that probability, we are looking at a very distinct and unique type of debt crisis.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I love when you educate us about the weather, especially the cycles. the NAPOLEON story killed me !!! I’m a french and believe me, nobody talked in school about the weather cycles when he tried to fight Russia and lost everything. I read 3 times your chart which plots the temperatures and the cycle initiated by the volcano a few years ago. you are enough smart to guess that French teachers NEVER talk this story under this angle of cooling temperatures…
REPLY: When you correlate everything you see the patterns. Sure, at Waterloo, the French used CANNONS while the British used CANISTERS. On the day of the battle, it rained a lot. The ground was very muddy, soft and wet mud. In that weather and ground conditions, cannons were not as effective. It was more than just the weapons. In those weather conditions, Napoleon delayed and that cost him the battle. But had the weather been dry, things may have been different. The cold clearly beat Napoleon on his attempted invasion of Russia.
There is also the Human Excitability Study where war was correlated to sunspot activity. The sunspot cycle is roughly every eleven years. However, this time it’s different. The sun is headed for a very rare, super-cooling period that threatens to topple civilization itself as it has throughout history roughly following a 300-year cycle.
For most of its history, science believed the sun’s output was constant. They finally realized that a thermal dynamic cycle beats like your heart so the sun could not exist if it was a steady outflow of energy. One degree less and it would blow itself out. Hence, it is cyclical rising and falling in intensity.
The eleven-year cycle in sunspots itself builds in intensity like the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) reaching “grand maxima” and “grand minima” over the course of 300 years. The last grand maximum peaked circa 1958, after which the sun has been steadily quieting down. Today, the drop in activity is at its steepest in 9,300 years, which is being ignored by the Global Warming propaganda.
The last Maunder Minimum, during which the sun languished for seventy years, took place from 1645 to 1715 when the sun’s brightness declined and the number of sunspots collapsed to almost zero. We are seeing almost zero so far in 2018.
Alexander Leonidovich Tchijevsky (1897-1964) did a study on sunspot and human activity. He found that humans responded even creating wars with the swings in sunspot activity. He may be most notable for his use of historical research (historiometry) techniques to link the 11-year solar cycle, Earth’s climate and the mass activity of peoples. Just after World War I, Tchijevsky published a book on cycle theory. Perhaps the title was not destined to make the book a smash hit, but it might take a big breath away before you finish reading the last word. The title was: “Investigation of the Relationship Between the Sunspot Activity and the Course of the Universal Historical Process from the V Century B.C. to the Present Day.”
The title is a bit of a long-winded oddity suggesting that human nature becomes more excited during the increased periods of sunspot activity. Whether or not Tchijevsky proved his theory that we are all driven by sunspots, much in the same manner as the moon drives the tides of the seas is another subject which I am not too certain about. Tchijevsky’s work is an interesting collection of knowledge that does illustrate a pattern within human activity.
Tchijevsky did prove that man became more excited every 11 years which did correspond to the know 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. He gathered data from 72 nations from 500 B.C. to 1922. Throughout the 2,422 years, he included such factors of human excitability as war, riots, revolutions, expeditions, and migrations. He took into consideration the magnitude of the event, the size of the area affected, and the number of people involved. The charts that are reproduced here give a very interesting cyclical view of man’s activity which you can call emotion or excitability.
The Tchijevsky cycle clearly indicates that every 11 year cycle period can be broken down into four distinct periods. Period #1 has a duration of three years which is marked by peace, passiveness, and general rule by minorities. Period #2 has a duration of two years in which general excitability grows from political unrest. New ideas or concepts emerge which tend to challenge the party in controL These ideas become popular answers to present day problems but there is a definite lack of a uniting force. Period #3 again has a duration of three years. Under this period the public’s voice is heard. Under a dictatorship, this has been the strongest period of mass riots and revolutions in which major problems are solved. At times, anarchy does prevail but generally democratic reforms are gained. Period #4 has a duration again of about three years. The general excitability declines, and the people go along contented in a state of apathetic moods. Peace movements usually are generated during this period. The masses prosper and go about their normal course of life awaiting the sun to set and the new light of dawn which brings the beginning of a new cycle.
Reflect for a moment about these four distinct periods. Looking at our own recent political history, we see a similarity between this cycle and our preference towards political parties. For example. we had a cycle of peace and passiveness following World War II culminating in the peak of period #3 during the Johnson term. We entered period #4 bringing in President Nixon as everyone went about their business. Gradually we entered period #1 which brought about the Watergate affair resulting in the Ford administration and period #2 which has a duration of 2 years. Jimmy Carter arrived in town ushering in period #3 which is the peak on the 11-year cycle that normally contains revolution of political unrest. This brought about period #4 when we revolted against the Inflationary policies of the Democrats by voting in President Reagan with a sense of returning back to passiveness and old standards and goals.
Who knows if these events indeed were caused by sunspot activity? Perhaps the sunspots do affect our emotions in much the same manner as the moon can move the ocean from side to side. But the fact that remains is this: a cycle does exist. You can find no century on this chart that was ever lacking such human excitability. We are indeed “only human” to capture a saying normally invoked for human error. We have all heard that history repeats itself. Perhaps it is not history that repeats so much as human error. We are not immortal. We have not lived constantly throughout time. We die and are replaced by new generations. Each generation tends to believe that they are smarter than the last, failing to accurately study the errors made by previous generations; they will make the same mistakes.
Perhaps the events might differ but the result is always the same. Just as the Crusaders charged off to the Middle East to free the holy land from pagan Arabs, as they viewed it, we charged off into Europe to set the world free from the madness of Hitler; both resulted in worldwide wars so the events may have been different but the motives, passions, and outcomes were the same.
Tchijevsky’s attempt to relate man’s excitability to sunspot activity did accomplish one thing significant. His life’s work may not have proved or disproved his sunspot theory, however, it did provide us with evidence that man’s excitability, or emotions as I prefer to call it, moves within a cyclical pattern that can be identified
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Ok, it is time to all hold hands and jump up and down a few times to set the Earth back in line. The latest is that since 1899, humans are now also causing the Earth’s axis of spin to shift about 34 feet (10.5 meters). Now, research quantifies the reasons why and finds that a third is due to melting ice and rising sea levels, particularly in Greenland—placing the blame on the doorstep of anthropogenic climate change. Another third of the wobble is due to land masses expanding upward as the glaciers retreat and lighten their load. The final portion is the fault of the slow churn of the mantle, the viscous middle layer of the planet. My solution is obvious that we are all to blame and we should begin a program of gradual suicide to save the planet. Those who discovered all this harm humans are doing should set a good example and lead the way for the rest of us to follow. Does anyone want to second that vote?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I live in Indonesia. I am amazed that the entire world is not known on your door. I understand that your model puts everything together and provides a whole new perspective. Your warning that here in the Pacific Ring of Fire we should expect a trend of increasing volcanoes and earthquakes has been incredibly accurate. Why do government not listen?
ANSWER: I am deeply sorry that so many people died this week. For those who are not aware, the Mount Soputan volcano in Indonesia erupted on Wednesday, throwing ash as high as 4,000 meters into the sky. This came just days after a major earthquake and tsunami then killed more than 1,400 people on the same island. These things correlate to the solar energy output.
Keep in mind that Solar Minimum does not mean that the sun gets colder but rather it changes. Until it’s not. As sunspots fade away, we enter solar minimum. The sun is heading toward solar minimum now and the sunspot counts are collapsing. While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar minimum, the solar activity changes form. During solar minimum, this is when the sun develops coronal holes. These are vast regions in the sun’s atmosphere where the sun’s magnetic field opens up. This then allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.
These holes throughout the solar cycle during solar minimum can last for a very long time even up to six months or more. Streams of this solar wind flowing from these coronal holes create space weather effects near Earth as they hit our magnetic field. These effects can include temporary disturbances called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to communications and navigation systems. These are the effects of solar minimum. These effects in the Earth’s upper atmosphere impacts satellites in low Earth orbit as well. However, on our computer, they also correlate to these periods of an increase in volcanoes and earthquakes.
All I can do is warn from the correlations. I am not presenting a theory as to how they are also causing perhaps geomagnetic disturbance which may go into the Earth itself cause these phenomena. I leave that for specialists to ascertain. Nevertheless, I think this has more influence than driving the kids to practice at school
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Oct 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
It is not looking very good for the winter ahead. A reader from Calgary sent this picture in about the early snowfall up there. Indeed, Calgary just experienced the Snowiest Day in More Than Three Decades. It Broke an October Snowfall Record. Of course, they will call this Global Warming as well. This is just a taste of this winter to come.
Already, the data is now in for September. The world just had the coldest September for a decade, according to the latest satellite measurements by the University of Alabama at Huntsville. Naturally, mainstream media will not cover this story. They only like to report how we are destroying the planet and everything is all our fault.
Since the governments have handed out $1 billion for these people to create Global Warming forecasts to justify more taxes, there is not a cold day in hell why they would even give us $5 for a correlation study that shows the opposite. Why fund something that does not produce more taxes?
Well, besides growing food in your basement, perhaps you should buy a sewing machine to make long-underwear to sell to the neighbors when they realize it’s getting colder rather than warmer
Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture
Re-Posted Oct 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
The sun is entering perhaps one of the deepest Solar Minima in thousands of years. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018. This is really alarming. Since the start of 2018, there have been totally spotless days for weeks. The sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply declined and this is not going to end well.
We can see that this decline in Solar Cycle #24 has been a rapid decline that is twice as fast than any previously. Already the the upper atmosphere is losing heat energy. NASA has conceded that if the current trend continues, this could become a dramatic cold period far worse than many people suspect. The Global Warming crowd is leading the world down a dangerous path because they have been paid $1 billion to create fake research in order to raise taxes as they have been doing in Europe and Canada. Our computer us projecting a very serious decline in sunspot activity. This will be the backdrop to the rise in agricultural prices we see between 2020 and 2024. Of course, thanks to the Global Warming people, it will be too late to prepare
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Sep 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
There is a very curious connection between lakes and volcanos in the Arctic. I just posted how there are kilotons of CO2 coming out of volcanos. There is a similar thing now showing up in lakes in the Arctic as well. There are about 300 lakes across the tundras of the Arctic. However, a scientist reports that she has never before never seen a lake like this one. The lake looks like it is boiling. It is making a hissing sound and bubbles are rising to the surface like a pot of water which is on the stove. It is actually producing powerful greenhouse gas called methane that Europe is taxing farmers for because their cows produce it. Who should we tax for this one? Methane gas has escaped from the lake bed and the bubbles are as big as a grapefruit.
There has been a rise in volcanic activity under the ice at both the North and South Poles. Nobody knows if this is a prelude to a pole shift or is this simply a foreshadow of climate change and entering into a new ice age. What we do know is that melting ice does not result in rising sea levels, it results in the water evaporates and it comes back as snow which then increases the glaciers once again. The danger is that this entire Global Warming nonsense is ignoring how ice ages are even created!
In fact, The British Daily Mail is reporting that not only was this forecast of Al Gore dead WRONG, the ice cap has actually expanded for the second year in a row covering 1.7million square kilometers MORE than 2 years ago and it is also thicker! In fact, the ice has melted in some areas and is building up in others as if they are gradually starting to move