Posted originally on Dec 26, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Martin:
You write “Republics are the worst form of government, for every representative can be bribed.”
^That^ translates into “Republics are the worst form of government when every representative IS bribed.”
Is your statement equivalent to “Republics are a good form of government when every representative cannot be bribed?”
Given your opinion regarding republics, what is the best form of government?
Best…
RM
ANSWER: Not every representative sells out. The reason for this is the lack of term limits. Representatives need money to run the next election, and that makes them susceptible to lobbyists and bribes. The bribes are not like Nancy Pelosi seeking to make a ton of money for personal gain. It begins with trying to raise money for the next election. We should reestablish the Kleroterion, but with improvement to eliminate the flaws pointed out by Aristotle and others.
But we must also prohibit career politicians. The bureaucracy really runs the state, and the political class is supposed to oversee them, but when they are career politicians, they become one and the same. Politicians act on “staff recommendations,” which occur at every government level – local, county, state, federal, and international at the United Nations. We have NO SAY who represents us at the United Nations and secretly agrees with the World Health Organization of their Climate Change agenda. There is no democratic process in any of this.
The “elected” politician is just for show, in many cases, to pretend we have a democratic process. Try contacting your representative. You will be typically stonewalled and held at bay by their “staff,” which are the real Deep State, for they run the show and remain there, moving from one politician to the next. Try writing to a representative of another district – they usually will not accept it.
More than sixty years ago today, on July 24, 1963, Bill Clinton shook hands with President John F. Kennedy when he was 16. Clinton says that handshake inspired his life of public service. Nearly thirty years later, in January 1993, Bill Clinton was sworn in as the 42nd president. I, too, shook John F. Kennedy’s hand when he was running for office in 1960. It did not inspire me to become president. Look at all the Secret Service people on the tops of the buildings. I remember every building was covered. Biden withheld sharpshooter protection from Trump for two years and refused to give RFK any protection. Was it Biden’s decision or the “staff” who really run the country? I believe the world saw that the emperor had no clothes, so to speak, after Biden’s last term. We witnessed a man in severe mental decline for the past four years. There is no way he could run the country. The deep state is in control, and a good portion of the public now realizes that the president is NOT always in control.
A few things need to happen for conditions to improve:
End lobbying: All elections should be funded by the taxpayer based on the number of signatures they gather
Committees should be based on their expertise. If I were there, it would be on a financial committee, not some medical committee. People are appointed to committees based on who they know rather than WHAT they know.
Athen had the Kleroterion, where names were selected for those who would fill a position. They should be prequalified for various positions.
The Inspector General should be a separate agency NOT subservient to the Executive or Department of Justice with the power to indict anyone in government.
Terms should be limited to a 2-year maximum — there is no room for career politicians.
Public servants MUST serve the people rather than their self-interests. “Politician” should not be a career choice but a role held by a member of our society who desires to SERVE the people by providing their expertise for a limited duration.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your blog. My friends here have been on my case to listen to you. Our government has fallen, and I have observed one thing. Your forecasts are correct because nobody here will ever make a bold forecast, and they all seem to preach the same scenario. You have been accurate on Germany against the herd of analysts here. One by one, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the e collapse of governments unfolding before our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You have a solution for the United States. Could you save Europe from itself?
Thank you
DT
ANSWER: Because I am not an academic, what I speak comes from experience and direct observation. The only economic theories that have survived are exclusively from those who have been traders – not academics. John Law traded on the Amsterdam exchange and gave birth to Supply and Demand. He articulated his famous water vs diamond analogy, which stated that water was vital to society. Still, water had little value compared to a diamond that had no true utility value yet was worth more than water. Even David Ricardo was involved in trading and saw the implications of international capital flows. He expressed that a nation should focus on its comparative advantage – something Trump must understand.
Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the same Amsterdam exchange and saw that debasement drove out the older coinage from the money supply. Gresham’s Law became that bad money drove good out of circulation. We saw this even during the 3rd century AD when people hoarded the old silver coins and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I was told, got his idea of general relativity from moving up and down in an elevator. Albert’s special theory of relativity appeared to be incompatible with the gravitational force as described by Newton’s law of gravity.
Most analysts espouse the same old nonsense and project the future based on what the central bank will or will not do. These analysts are not real, for all they purport is the same Keynesian theories they were taught in school. Sorry – they were an academic theory inspired by Marx and no longer work. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle, in which he stated that the “new economics” ultimately failed. Any analyst who points to the Fed has never read the memos. Here, we have the thinking process before Keynes. The Fed raised rates in May 1928 and continued into the 1929 high with no effect.
Here is a chart of call money rates from the NYSE. Just look closely. We see that 1929 was the biggest stock market rally but the lowest level of interest rates, all because of the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 saw rates rise to virtually 200% because of the capital outflows. There is no such theory of stock market up interest rates down that can be verified whatsoever.
You are correct. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I have said many times, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it could never rival the dollar, forcing institutional investors to still pick and choose between member states lacking a national debt market. Mr Scholz is a disaster. He lost a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch attempt to retain power with promises of massive spending fell flat on its face. This will send Germany to the election in February, precisely when our computer has been projecting a Panic Cycle in advance. Leaders from several major parties have since agreed to move up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months ahead of schedule.
I would gladly fly to Brussels to address all members at once. But you must understand the computer forecasts that my best efforts will not succeed. Each member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it would pressure others to follow or be left behind. But politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are preparing for a third World War which the computer forecasts that they will lose. This will be the demise of the West. I suppose historically, we all have our minutes of fame.
In 800AD, Pope Leo III crowned Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. Today, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the father of Europe. From that date, the EU is not likely to exist after 2029. Europe is heading in the wrong direction, and NATO is pushing for World War III, and there is not a single government even willing to negotiate. That makes it very hard. In all reality, I suspect they would only listen to me in 2029 and beyond.
Posted Beware Last 2 Weeks of December – Something is Not Right
Posted Dec 12, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside?
John
ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously wrong. This is not confined to the United States alone. So review all the markets that you are interested in. This may be critical. We have a sovereign debt crisis. We added all the spreads between France and other European member states. We have confidence in government starting to decline and instability rising among various governments.
Most indices and markets we look at are starting to roll over, even Bitcoin, which has a target and Directional Change here in December. The global capital markets are not booming with euphoria thanks to the Trump victory. I hope this has nothing to do with the NEOCONs making a third attempt to eliminate their greatest threat to their power.
I am concerned about this usurpation of the state’s military power in Congress’ newly unveiled annual defense bill that could soon be signed into law. The final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing the National Guard Air defense to the Federal power. This is over the objections of some 55 state and territorial governors. WHY? This seems to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. This is not a good sign.
When we look at Russia, we also see December as a turning point and a move into February in the immediate future. The risk remains that NATO is trying desperately to create war with Russia before Trump takes office. My concern here is that they will create a false flag to blame Russia, just as the CIA proposed Project Northwoods to justify invading Cuba. We see a Directional Change for Russia next week.
LAST TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER
Something is just not right. The capital is pinching up a change in the wind. So, Pay attention to Socrates at this point in time. Dec 12, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside?
John
ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously wrong. This is not confined to the United States alone. So review all the markets that you are interested in. This may be critical. We have a sovereign debt crisis. We added all the spreads between France and other European member states. We have confidence in government starting to decline and instability rising among various governments.
Most indices and markets we look at are starting to roll over, even Bitcoin, which has a target and Directional Change here in December. The global capital markets are not booming with euphoria thanks to the Trump victory. I hope this has nothing to do with the NEOCONs making a third attempt to eliminate their greatest threat to their power.
I am concerned about this usurpation of the state’s military power in Congress’ newly unveiled annual defense bill that could soon be signed into law. The final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing the National Guard Air defense to the Federal power. This is over the objections of some 55 state and territorial governors. WHY? This seems to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. This is not a good sign.
When we look at Russia, we also see December as a turning point and a move into February in the immediate future. The risk remains that NATO is trying desperately to create war with Russia before Trump takes office. My concern here is that they will create a false flag to blame Russia, just as the CIA proposed Project Northwoods to justify invading Cuba. We see a Directional Change for Russia next week.
LAST TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER
Something is just not right. The capital is pinching up a change in the wind. So, Pay attention to Socrates at this point in time.
Posted originally on Dec 11, 2024 by Martin Armstrong |
Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up to 10% in a recession, whereas a depression could see a 25%+ turn in unemployment. A lack of work leads to civil unrest and upheaval. Depressions are never isolated to one nation as they spread as a contagion throughout the world.
You could take the stock market down 30%, even 40%, and still not create a depression. Yet, if you undermine government debt by far less, you will create a severe economic downturn. Look to the banks. Under law, banks are required to use government debt as a reserve. Undermining government debt simply wipes out the banking industry as we have historically seen when bank after bank is forced to shutter.
During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. Look at what happened in 1931 when Europe defaulted on its debt, as did Asia and so forth since depressions become contagions. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds.
This is an oversimplified version of this message but you can read more on the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis throughout this website. Governments default and then that often leads to a regime change. The incoming regime will simply say, “Oh, that was the debt of the last government and we need not pay.” Listen, the stock market could plunge 20% and the banks would be OK. But if you saw the same in the debt market, in particular sovereign debt, you’re in serious trouble.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: When I ask someone about your theories, they claim you are unconventional. They said the same thing about Einstein and even Kynes in the early 1920s. It seems that anyone who thinks outside the box is labeled unconventional, but in the end, they adopt the very theories and become conventional. They seem to make history repeat, for they always defend their position, which is obviously wrong.
I just wanted to say that historical recurrence is not something new. It has played an important role in developing Western historiography since antiquity. I am sure you are well versed. The view that “history repeats itself” is characteristically Greek. They understood everything was cyclical from the observations of cosmic and social cycles. I believe you have explained that history repeats itself better than anyone. It is human nature for people to respond the same way to similar situations regardless of the century.
Your intention to hold a WEC for the next generation is vital. You are offering something academia will only acknowledge when they are forced into embarrassment as to place during the Great Depression. Only then did they turn to Keynes.
There are those of us willing to donate to such a project.
Please consider the importance of this for the next generation.
Paul
ANSWER: History repeats because human nature is constant regardless of the century. But it is often also driven by notions of retribution, rebirth, reenactment, and imitation. Both Hitler and Napoleon sought to resurrect the old Roman Empire. Because I witnessed the debasement of silver coinage in 1965 and was familiar with the debasement of Roman coinage and how they, too silver, plated bronze coinage to retain the appearance of silver as we created a nickel-clad coinage in 1965, as a kid, I instantly saw history repeating.
Here is a Roman coin of Marius (268AD). You can see that the silver plating is starting to wear off, revealing the core is merely bronze. Inflation was soaring, and President Kennedy signed an executive order to remove silver from the coinage in 1963. Here, we see in Rome that inflation also soared once emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured in battle by the Persians – the first emperor to have even been captured. That also set in motion a financial panic where bankers were uncertain if they should even accept Roman coins anymore.
By the middle of the second century BC, Rome, Polybius of Megalopolis, had written his Historiae to explain how Rome conquered the known world. These thirty-nine books received their finality after 146BC. At first, Polybius was interested in Greek affairs. He was stunned by the rise of Rome and its rapid expansion into an empire. He attempted what he would call universal history rather than just looking at Rome as a local aberration or fluke. His Anacyclōsis offered basic paradigms of historical recurrence that were below the surface. Indeed, Polybius established that studying history provided sound political training (cf. Hist. I, I,2).
Polybius’s famous discussion of the mixed character of Rome’s republican constitution is found in Book 6, chap. 5. It was certainly Polybius who presupposed that past events reflected various paradigmatic movements and patterns that would reemerge in current and future affairs. It seems that the Dark Ages, which saw the death of knowledge and independent thought in Europe, also altered our understanding of the world and cycles.
They burned Giordano Bruno (1548–1600) alive at the stake for merely agreeing with Calpurnicus in suggesting that the Earth rotated around the sun. The stupidity of the closed-minded at that time saw Haven must be above and Hell was below, so if the Earth was not fixed, then all religion was wrong. Thus, burn him alive as a heretic.
I greatly appreciate the offer. We will do something like that, for I do not have the time to write a plan for students.
Posted originally on Dec 1, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Marty: It is painfully obvious why the bankers always tried to have the government silence you. Every aspect of what you forecast eventually unfolds, turning this random walk theory into propaganda. Bloomberg has reported that French corporate rates are now below government. The shift from Public to Private is right before our eyes.
Thank you for a fantastic WEC. I loved your passion for saving the country if they listen. I also want to enroll my children in your gift to society, a WEC for the next generation. It’s just brilliant.
JD
COMMENT #2: Hi Martin,
As you predicted, corporate bonds of French companies now trade at yields below those of the government. Public to Private wave in full swing.
Best, PH
COMMENT #3: I was in Moscow on business, and you were on national TV. What does that say about America? I have seen you on French TV, but never in the USA. They want to keep us deaf, dumb, blind, and obedient. Tune in, and we will tell you when Kamala will sweep everything. MSNBC lost 40% of its viewers. Truth sells – not propaganda.
SG
REPLY: We have the largest database of anyone on the planet, covering the globe internationally and with an unlimited scope, from finance to wealth, nature, and disease. When there were the Sovereign Defaults of 1931 in Europe, Asia, and South America, combined with the corporate bankruptcies, the flight to quality was to the US treasuries. Even the City of Detroit suspended its debt. You see, the peak in the premium for corporate over treasuries was in 1932. That coincided with the low in the stock market. When FDR came into power on March 4, 1933, after winning the 1932 election, you can see that the premium in corporate rates began to decline. In Europe, corporate rates dropped below government as people began to smell a rat.
In 1927, the Fed lowered rates in the States, trying to deflect capital back to Europe. However, the smart money realized that the Fed’s action confirmed that a serious debt crisis was on the horizon in Europe. Even Britain, the Financial Capital of the World before World War I, suspended its debt, as reported on September 21st, 1931.
You can track this important relationship through Socrates. When the confidence in the government declines, the capital will always shift from Public to Private and vice versa.
The movie The Forecasted was played on national TV, even in Canada, Europe, and Scandinavia. You are correct, and they would never show it in the USA. Anything that shows the true nature of those in power will never be shown.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for being so honest. I like how you separate your opinion from the computer. My question is simple. Do you give credence to the betting odds being more accurate than the polls?
See you next week
Frank
ANSWER: The polls are often wrong, and the betting odds do not seem much better. In 2016, the odds of a Hillary victory were 88% compared to 13% for Trump. Our computer called it correctly, as was the case with BREXIT. With over 70 million in early voting, the computer will be correct on the turnout.
More voters (154.6 million) turned out for the presidential election in 2020 than in 2016 (137.5 million), the most significant increase between consecutive presidential elections since record-keeping began in 1964. The problem with the 2020 election was the scare tactics using COVID. The mail-in ballots were 65,642,049. The combined early voting and mail-in during 2016 was only 12.6 million. With early voting exceeding 70 million, this is by far the largest turnout for early voting in history.
Posted originally on Oct 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Are you ever wrong?
PSH
ANSWER: Personally, we are all wrong on various things in life. To be a trader, you only learn from your mistakes – not your victories. I try to separate what is my OPINION from the forecasts by the computer. We have clients around the world. We have probably been the largest adviser ever. But that is not because of my opinion – that is Socrates. I have often stated I try my best to defeat my own computer – I am the one who ends up wrong.
There is a new film coming out the sequel to the Forecaster. I was asked in this film, how does it “feel” to live through your own forecasts. My job is to relay what the computer is forecasting. This is not my opinion. I stood up at our 2011 World Economic Conference and warned that the War Cycle would turn up in 2014. On December 3rd, 2013, I posted that the computer had targeted Ukraine where war would begin.
A number of people do not like the forecast that China would replace the United States on the economic battlefield. Sorry, but my job is to present the UNBIASED projections of the computer – not my personal opinion or desire. I have grandkids. I hate to see the future we are leaving behind for our children. This is the data from the Federal Reserve. The differential peak in GDP (US-China GDP) occurred in 2006 with a premium of $1.3 trillion. Even since then, China has been growing in leaps and bounds, and it may even surpass the US in the 2025/2026 period and reach total displacement by 2032.
The Ukraine war has triggered a completely new dynamic in the relationship between these great powers with respect to this rivalry. What is being overlooked here is that China, and not Russia, is capable of replacing the United States as the leading world economic and military power, as I warned several years ago, back in 2011 and 2018. Our model projected that China would eventually replace the United States as the leading economic power – NOT me personally.
These are NOT forecasts that I personally desire, nor do they originate in my mind. Even look at the data on Republicans vs. Democrats. This is the perspective of the combined total seats of each party. The Democrats are the modern-day Federalists. They see themselves imposing their views upon the entire nation. The Federalists collapsed by 1824. The American people reject this political philosophy, and this is the trend that will lead to separation as it ALWAYS does whenever any government attempts to impose a dictatorial one-size-fits-all policy.
So please understand. I am no more infallible than other humans. My job is to relay the computer forecasts. I try hard to separate my opinion from that of Socrates. I do not want to see war. I know I cannot alter the cycle. The best I can do by screaming loudly is to reduce the amplitude perhaps. I am 75 years old. I get to leave this chaos and watch from above. I am trying to leave behind what I had bumped into in the middle of my life. What I do, I do not do for money. I have enough to finish my life. At the WEC this year, I will make an important announcement that I hope will help the generations that follow.
Posted originally on Oct 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Why is Socrates able to do forecast wild panics in China when nobody else can? It picked the turning point for week of ninth which was the lowest close on the September 5 report. All this hype about AI but Socrates is so different. I’m not a programmer. Can you explain this is layman’s terms. This has been amazing here in Shanghai – Nǐ tài bàng le.
LW
ANSWER: What I can say is that 99% of what is out there is not AI. There are language models that are amazing like ChatGPT. A read as ChatGPT what is the difference with Socrates. Here is the response:
As an AI language model, I differ from the Socrates Platform in several ways.
Firstly, the Socrates Platform is a web-based platform developed by Martin Armstrong and his team at Armstrong Economics,
whereas I am a language model developed by OpenAI. The Socrates Platform is designed to analyze economic and financial data
in real-time, predict market trends, and provide actionable insights to investors and traders. In contrast, I am designed
to assist with a wide range of tasks, including language translation, question answering, and text generation.
Secondly, the Socrates Platform uses artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing to analyze
data, whereas I am primarily focused on natural language processing. The Socrates Platform uses sophisticated algorithms
to analyze historical and cultural data to inform its predictions, whereas my responses are based on the input provided
to me by the user.
Lastly, the Socrates Platform is primarily designed for financial professionals, investors, and traders, whereas I am
designed for a broader range of users, including students, researchers, and general knowledge seekers. While both the
Socrates Platform and I use artificial intelligence to analyze data and provide insights, our intended audiences and
applications differ significantly.
Yes, the two platforms are completely unrelated aside from being driven by AI. ChatGPT does not have the computing capabilities of Socrates. It does not have the monetary history data, for starters. ChatGPT has no involvement in the financial world and was not designed for financial purposes. It cannot even provide basic market closings as the current model stopped learning in September 2021 and cannot answer any questions after that date. Most importantly, ChatGPT does not have the source code that is the key to Socrates’ successful forecasts ChatGPT is a great achievement and a step in the right direction for AI use on a larger scale. However, it is not possible to compete where you do not compare. Socrates is in a league of its own.
The complexity of the markets globally is far beyond description. I have experimented with Neural Nets and other interesting attempts to recreate the structure of the human mind. Neural Nets are notoriously subject to complete failures. There is no such program that has been able to demonstrate consistency in the field of economics. This is all due to complexity. This theory that a computer can become sentient has provided the movie industry with some great movies from Terminator to Matrix. The idea is that we are just a super computer. Our SENTIENT existence has been proposed that just the connections in our brain creates the capability of sensing or feeling – consciousness.
There is a lot of misguided hope surrounding Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. All we need to do is look objectively at IBM project WATSON. Just over a decade ago, artificial intelligence (AI) made one of its showier forays into the public’s consciousness when IBM’s Watson computer appeared on the American quiz show Jeopardy. Watson’s debut performance against two of the show’s most successful contestants was televised to a national viewership across three evenings. In the end, the machine triumphed comfortably. This is just the ability to look up answers faster than a human employing no actual understanding of what the answer means in the real world.
They kept Einstein’s brain. The analysis of his brain put forth a number of unusual features, that some tried to attribute to his intelligence. One thing was an asymmetrical parietal lobes that were 15% wider than normal. Some researchers believe this may have contributed to his mathematical, visual, and spatial skills. What I can attest to is the ability to see patterns. The best traders have been visual in nature. This is why the fundamentalists tend to get wiped out because they often attempt to return complexity to a single relations – Fed raises rates so stocks down. It is very primitive to say the least.
Our ancient ancestors were far more intelligent than what we attribute to them. They saw patterns in the stars and mapped the heavens. It was the ability to see patterns and understand cyclical movements over everything that advanced civilization before the Dark Age when knowledge was lost thanks to the barbarian invasions.
They aligned that monuments with the summer and winter solstices. The Miya even discovered the precession of the equinox of 25,800 years measuring the movement of the stars. They had aligned temples to the stars and then noticed that the stars had moved. Understanding everything was a cycle, they determined it would return to its origin in 25,800 years. We lost our ability to see cycles post-Dark Age and we ended up with the assumption that everything was simply linear.
The ancients even had the concept of the atom during the long forgotten golden age of Greece. There were ancient step counters known as bematists who measured distances that we know had better than 95% accuracy. In 240BC, Eratosthenes employed this skill to extrapolate the circumference of the Earth that they knew was round – not flat. The knowledge of cycles survived from ancient times is the East. It was the fall of Rome in the West when the barbarians were not interested in knowledge so everything was torched.
Hipparchus of Rhodes observed around 150 BC that the equinoxes moved wit h time. This is where the Sun’s path crosses the celestial equator. He realized that these were not fixed in time and space but traveled in a cyclical manner. The movement was extremely slow in a westerly direction. This amounted to but less than 2° in about 150 years. This slow movement is known as the “Precession of the Equinoxes” and requires generations to even observe. It is about 1° movement every 72 years, bringing this also to a virtual number that is a derivative of 8.6 – 25,800 years.
“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”
The effort to create option models known as Black–Scholes completely broke down and resulted in the Long-Term Capital Management debacle. That was covered in the book – When Genius Failed. The failure took place because they did not have the database. They only tested the algorithm back to 1971. Indeed, you need hundreds of years of data to just comprehend the beginning of complexity.
Neuromorphic engineering is yet another concept developed back in the late 1980s. Thus, neuromorphic differs from neural networks which are a set of algorithms, modeled loosely on the theory of how the human brain functions. They were designed to recognize patterns such as trying to distinguish between the cat, dog, and a cup of coffee. They attempt to create very large-scale integration (VLSI) systems containing electronic analog circuits to mimic neuro-biological architectures that are present in the nervous system. This neuromorphic is really more hardware-based but also requires a software operating system.
The implementation of neuromorphic computing has raised the theory that perhaps one day we will be able to copy the content of the brain into a synthetic replacement as in the movie “Replicas” and then there is the move by Johnny Deep – Transcendence. The actual key aspect of neuromorphic computing is understanding how the morphology of individual neurons, circuits, applications, and overall architectures create learning and development constituting who we are. I would not consider this a technology that would be able to become a synthetic mind replacement for quite some time, assuming we could ever get to that level of understanding the complexity of the human brain.
What I explain to people about this complexity is perhaps to had dinner with someone and fell in love. You will remember the place, but you mind is recording everything without you directing it to do so. You hear a song that was playing and suddenly your mind recalls that event unintentionally. Or you had ordered oysters for the first time and you see them again years later and your mind accesses that memory. In truth, that memory could be unintentionally accessed by any of the senses. This demonstrates everything is an access path individually or even in combination.
Obviously, Socrates is a hybrid between neuromorphic computing and neural networks. I chose a different path entirely actually creating a synthetic network capable of learning by example and pattern recognition, such as the Global Market Watch, but expressly targeted to global analysis. I input my own analytical abilities and experience into Socrates as far as methodology in how to conduct analysis but no fixed rules like interest rates up stocks down. Socrates has been free to explore the entire world database and return with answers. It has weather, volcanoes, climate, and disease databases. Everything is vital to understanding how things function.
The Global Market Watch is purely pattern recognition where it is identifying patterns and assigning them a number you see with comment for its catalog of market patterns. It has exceeded more than 100,000 patterns, demonstrating the true complexity of market movement based upon a matrix of variables. It has also proven that those patterns observed in wheat are applicable to even individual stocks. This has confirmed that the patterns are human responses to price movement. It has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that fundamental analysis is not only worthless for its myopic focus on one-dimensional relationships, but the common link is human behavior — not the underlying instrument. We are looking at HOW humans will interact with whatever the instrument might be to establish why history repeats because human nature never changes throughout millennia.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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