Tag Archives: Breakup of the United States

Jul 23 2023

Why Academia Cannot Forecast Anything


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Jul 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have been impressed by your Economic Confidence Model. You said there would be no recession until after 2024. You were really the only one who said that. Now Bloomberg reported that the forecasters who “were first out of the box to predict a US recession” are now hedging their bets. They mention Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Research Peter Hooper and Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. However, Nomura Securities International senior economist Aichi Amemiya still says a recession is coming, but “it’s getting to be a close call.”

Not one of the significant houses seems ever to get it right. I just wanted to say your model shines a light on the whole analysis field. I can’t wait for your Geometry of Time.

DF

REPLY:  Thank you. It has been a most interesting experience. As I said, this is something I bumped into. I did not go looking for such a model. It was something that found me, as many say it was my destiny, even growing up in a house with the address of 314 South Lippincott Ave, in Maple Shade, New Jersey.

These are the books I am trying to get out this year. The Geometry of Time will be next year. The Mark Anthony book should be on Amazon and Barnes & Noble in a couple of weeks. That is, using the coinage to demonstrate what the real story is behind Cleopatra. She was certainly not black as NETFLIX presented to rewrite history for the WOKE agenda. This is very similar to the USA using Ukraine in a proxy war to destroy Russia. Here, Cleopatra funded a war that the coinage was so massive; it still accounted for 20% of the money supply 100 years later.

The Modern Analysis is nearly finished. This goes precisely to the subject you have brought up. This is a reference book on my version of technical analysis, which is different from the mainstream, but it goes into the whole problem of analysis used by academics, which is blinding us to the reality of our actions.

The De-Dolarization demonstrates how this entire nonsense that hyperinflation is caused by just increasing the money supply, which is like saying the Great Depression took place simply because the stock market went down. Here too, the lack of any real investigative analysis has doomed the Eurozone because of the distorted view of the real cause of hyperinflation.

The Geometry of Time will be the companion to Modern Analysis for the 21st Century. This will deal with cycles from the how to the why. It has been academia’s refusal to embrace cyclical analysis and any form of technical analysis that prevent any worthwhile forecasting. This is why people like Larry Summers admit they cannot forecast the economy’s future.

Jul 14 2023

Part of Oregon Wishes to Join Idaho


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Jul 14, 2023 by Martin Armstron

The “Greater Idaho” movement is gaining traction, with 12 counties now voting to secede Oregon to Idaho. This is precisely on target as the US is set to separate into individual states with their own governing bodies. State rights are how the nation was intended, but the politicians do not always represent the views of the people. Oregon has become increasingly liberal in recent years, legalizing drug use (including methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine), implementing light-on-crime policies, and far-left ideologies in schools and society in general. Oregon is the ninth most expensive state in the US and ranks 33rd in tax burdens despite not having a sales tax. Idaho, in comparison, has the 8th smallest tax burden and leans conservative.

Many may not know, but Oregon’s state lines were slightly adjusted 65 years ago in 1958. State lines may be redrawn with the approval of Congress and state legislatures. There was never a more vital need for state rights than now as two contradictory ideologies permeate America, eliminating what was once a united nation. Those supporting the Greater Idaho movement say that Oregon’s policies no longer represent their beliefs. “Idaho would have the satisfaction of freeing more than 380,000 rural Oregonians from woke progressive blue-state law,” the movement’s website states.

How does Idaho feel about this movement? The same way that people in Florida and Texas feel – do not move here if you’re going to continue to vote for the same policies that ruined your state. Some people truly do not realize that states vastly differ from one another due to political policies.

Another issue is that some of these counties are located in rural areas where jobs are scarce. “You look at the counties that we are proposing to add, they are through the roof. The average of those counties is 45% of those folks are on Medicaid,” Democrat Ilana Rubel said. “You look at the number on free and reduce lunch, in many of the cases its 95%, 100%. These are very, very low income counties folks.” I cannot confirm if her statistics are correct at this time, but yes, it is a problem.

This is a major issue as the east-west Oregon divide is reaching a breaking point. The people wishing to secede do not feel represented by their officials who are implementing increasingly extreme legislation. These movements will become prevalent across the US in the coming years. I say everyone who believes in the far-left ideology should head on over to a ruined blue state and live out their taxed, genderless, homeless, drug and crime-infested socialist version of utopia away from everyone else.