WHY Things Happen

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, do you think it was destiny that you were somehow intended to discover the hidden order behind the Business Cycle?


QUESTION #2: Martin,

I have a friend who has been working on getting Roe v. Wade overturned.  In a groups chat, my daughter mentioned to him how this was going to go into the history books and their generation will be telling our children about it.

It then occurred to me that this could go down in the history books in ways that most do not yet perceive. If your models are correct, this may well be one of the “Ft. Sumpter events” that ultimately lead to a regional breakup of the U.S. by 2032.

Out of curiosity, when did your models first forecast the 2032 breakup?

ANSWER: This is all part of the decline and fall of the United States. There is no constitutional right to abortion any more than there is a constitutional right that the government must provide you with medicare. The Constitution is NEGATIVE, not positive. Read the language of the 5th Amendment — “No person shall be held…” It is a restraint upon government; it is NOT a positive list of rights. Read the text! It is always in the tone that the government shall not do whatever. They held that implicit in the 5th Amendment, there was a right to privacy. That was in the context of Griswold v Connecticut having to do with condoms. That was fashioned into Roe v Wade, and it was crafted to REDUCE the population of minorities. It was a racist decision. Justice Ginsberg made that clear, and she stood for women’s rights.

People then tried to force the government to pay for abortions. That is when HARRIS v. McRAE, 448 U.S. 297 (1980) was decided to point out that the Constitution is NEGATIVE, and thus no right compels the government to pay for abortion. From a legal perspective, there is NO right to abortion any more than there is a right that the government must pay for your healthcare, divorce, or any social benefits. This is the problem of SOCIALISM and that politicians have misrepresented the Constitution to win office on a pure lie.

The rhetoric that a woman’s life cannot be saved in a dangerous birth is absurd. The law in question limited the abortion right to within the first 15 weeks. The facts do not support this rhetoric. There is just this toxic absurd claim to some constitutional right that never existed. It will further divide the states, and I would welcome the separation of the United States. It is absurd that the assumed power of Washington can force social laws upon the whole, as it merely invites the destruction of the United States. Similarly, such measures destroyed Rome.

As Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:” “The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father [TRUMP] always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. 

As much as things change – they always remain the same. The name just changes.

I first published that forecast of 2032 back in 1979. That is when I published my findings in what I named the “WHY Report.” I don’t have a single copy of that report as it was lost in the allies of time. I did expand it and republished it again in 1981 after it successfully picked the 1981 high in interest rates. The second edition was published once more in July 1983. I have at least one copy of that one. I hear they all go for well over $1,000 these days; I should probably buy the first two.

I found it very interesting that perhaps I was destined to discover this model after the fact that it was accurate to a day because it was based upon pi – 8.6 years = 3,145 days. Note that the office address was Suite 314. The house I grew up in was 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, New Jersey.

The title of that report was my number one question to my parents. I was always curious and asked “why” about everything. My mother would sometimes just respond, “BECAUSE!” So I named the report after my constant question. I suppose I could have been a real pain back then. If it was something I was interested in, I dove in over my head. If it was a boring subject, I really did not pay attention.

I began to use it myself in 1976. I observed it beginning in 1966. I had watched the boom-bust move from market to market — stocks, collectibles, real estate, and interest rates. Each time I had thought the bust was unique to that one market, I began to see that there was no exception. Everything rallied with an emotional peak, and then the crash would come when you could not sell what everyone wanted just months before.

I had gotten divorced but kept my kids. I was living at 16 Palmetto Ave, Marlton, New Jersey, but traveling 1 hour to Princeton every day. So I put my house up for sale, and for months nobody even came to look. Then a couple came. I think he owned some stores like a 7/11, but I don’t recall. He walked in and said he would buy it, but I had to be out in 30 days because his wife was very pregnant. I said, “No problem.” I took my two kids, and we moved into a hotel in Princeton as I began my search for a new home.

I then bought a house at 17 Abey Drive in Pennington, New Jersey, where I raised my kids. It was pointed out to me that 16 was 2x 8 and 17.2 is 2 x 8.6. So I suppose I have always lived with addressed that were linked to pi.

I do not know if it was destiny. I understand many people believe we are here for some purpose. Even in Asia, the idea of reincarnation in Hinduism is perhaps as old as Hinduism itself. General Patton had told my father that he was reincarnated and sent back to win the war. He said he was a General many times in history and said he would describe how they fought battles even under Alexander the Great. I do not have any recollection of past lives, so I cannot answer that question of destiny. Perhaps it is true or just a coincidence. Who knows.

The Cryptocurrency Crisis

Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted May 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to express my thanks. You were the only one who called the high in Bitcoin. You saved my marriage, my home, and my future. I tried to tell a friend who went and took an equity loan to invest in Bitcoin. He may lose his home now. I tried to tell him you warned markets crash when everyone has bought. He would not listen. Your principle applies to everything. Thank you so much. Your WEC saved my life.

See you in Orlando.


REPLY: I know, The NY Post has published how people are losing everything and some are contemplating suicide. This is the normal Boom-Bust Cycle that governs. I know a lot of analysts disagreed with me. All I can say if they did not see this coming, then they were too biased and caught up in the trade for themselves.

As I have said, cryptocurrencies are an asset – not money. They are by no means a safe harbor against “fiat currency” and will NEVER be a store of value because NOTHING ever is. Gold rises and falls. Even during the 19th century, there was inflation and deflation. Guess what? When you are on a gold standard, the value of gold rises and falls just as the dollar does right now.

There are people who REFUSE to ever listen and keep preaching that a return to the gold standard somehow mysteriously will solve all the problems. I think they are smoking their marijuana way too much. I do not know how to explain it any simpler. There is a cycle to absolutely EVERYTHING!. There is NO standard that will EVER work because of the business cycle. Here is a chart of the Gold/Silver Ratio. If there was this fictional world where somehow money never appreciates nor declines, you have crossed the line into Marxist Theory and Communism. That was the whole reason behind Marx – to create the perfect world and end recessions and depressions.

Paul Volcker in 1978 express the harsh reality that nobody listened to. He called it the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle because it always defeated these people who tried to eliminate the business cycle and create the perfect world.

Arthur Burns, who was the Fed Chairman at the time of the collapse of Bretton Woods. He too acknowledged that the business cycle always wins. I’m sorry, but this is reality. Market crashes because EVERYONE who ever thought of buying has bought. Something happens and they try to sell. The market crashes because there I a lack of fresh buying. To survive your own investment decisions, this is lesson #1 – When everyone is talking about that investment as the next exception to reach new heights, it’s time to exit.

Nuclear Deterrence

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted May 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

I work on defense issues for my job, but I am no Neocon. Second Strike works just fine too or more likely “Launch Under Attack” (LUA), and even with older weapons. Everybody goes down together and most likely via miscalculation especially given possible Nuclear Winter which given Volcano data actually looks plausible. No prior intention is required to commit National suicide. Read Admiral Richards (STRATCOM) latest Congressional testimony yesterday. A  “Crisis In Nuclear Deterrence” and it could be the Brits who initiate any escalation and not the U.S.by the way. Same Trident-D-5 SLBM’s and Russia could not tell them apart.

There are some Neocons who are aware of your work like Bill Kristol, and others. They will never allow the shift from West to East to occur. I have actually heard some of them say that. It is their hold card. By the way, could you clarify when you believe the full-scale war will break out? You have suggested Q-1 2023, 2024 (especially May 7/8 ECM turn), after 2024, 2027, and 2028. I understand it may escalate in stages, but how long does Socrates believe we have before it goes full scale? My guess is June 2024 as Economic factors are ignored by “The Post Cold Warriors”.


COMMENT: Marty, you are right again. Admiral Richard agreed with you that nuclear arms are no longer a deterrent to war. The Ukraine conflict shows Russia was not afraid of nuclear weapons from NATO or the US. It is all economics.

Thanks for what you do.


ANSWER: I know virtually every intelligence agency looks at Socrates. They all want to know the forecasts of Socrates, for it’s not my personal opinion. All I can hope to do is scream loud enough that perhaps I can reduce the amplitude of events. But Socrates has NEVER been wrong on any geopolitical forecast in my lifetime. Personally, we all have opinions. But that will also change week to week based on events. That’s why personal opinion will not cut it, for this is far more complex than we can even speculate.

I really do not care what the Neocons do. They will never prevent the shift of the economic power from the West to the East. China has surpassed Europe, and it is neck and neck with the USA now. This is a cycle that cannot be defeated. All they are doing is fulfilling the cycle with this nonsense. World peace is created by interdependency, as was the case with the Roman Empire and the Pax Romanum, Roman peace.

I am doing a full report on the question. Tensions are rising post-2020 after they got Biden in office. We will see escalation begin in 2023, but the prospect of a world war is more likely post-2024. I question if Putin will be there during that time more than Biden. Putin will be followed by even hardline advocates, for they are well aware that this Proxy War is really a war between the USA and Russia.

Yes, the head of U.S. Strategic Command Adm. Charles Richard, who does oversee the nuclear arsenal, warned Congress that the USA faces a heightened nuclear deterrence risk when it comes to Russia and China. The cutting of the defense budget and even Biden’s threat to dishonorably discharge any member of the military who was not vaccinated has shown that the US thinks it can control the world with the threat of nuclear weapons while reducing the conventional capability.

Adm. Richard warned: “We are facing a crisis deterrence dynamic right now that we have only seen a few times in our nation’s history.” He continued stating bluntly: “The war in Ukraine and China’s nuclear trajectory — their strategic breakout — demonstrates that we have a deterrence and assurance gap based on the threat of limited nuclear employment.” He further warned that China is “watching the war in Ukraine closely and will likely use nuclear coercion to their advantage in the future. Their intent is to achieve the military capability to reunify Taiwan by 2027 if not sooner.”

Nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent. They did not stop the US from going into Iraq, the Vietnamese War, or this one in Ukraine. The idea that building nuclear capability will somehow compel world peace is a delusion. This is essentially what Admiral Richard has scolded Congress about. The US conventionally is not a match for Russia and China. North Korea alone has an army of 1.5 million. That is double the size of both sides in Ukraine right now.

Oliver Stone on Putin

Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Apr 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

BRICS Ministers of Finance Hold a Meeting – It Is Time to Replace Western Financial Trade Mechanisms and Remove The Dollar

Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 9, 2022 

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this would happen.

[Left to Right] Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.

The finance ministers of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have decided to create their own financial mechanisms to continue trade between nations of similar disposition.  Once the internal issues inside the BRICS alliance are resolved, and once the mechanisms are created, then other nations will be able to decide to join or not.  The great global cleaving will commence.

(Reuters) – Russia, hit by Western sanctions, has called on the BRICS group of emerging economies to extend the use of national currencies and integrate payment systems, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

[…] On Friday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told a ministerial meeting with BRICS, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, that the global economic situation had worsened substantially due to the sanctions, the ministry’s statement said.

The new sanctions also destroy the foundation of the existing international monetary and financial system based on the U.S. dollar, Siluanov said.

“This pushes us to the need to speed up work in the following areas: the use of national currencies for export-import operations, the integration of payment systems and cards, our own financial messaging system and the creation of an independent BRICS rating agency,” Siluanov said.

International payment cards Visa and MasterCard suspended operations in Russia in early March and Russia’s biggest banks have lost access to the SWIFT global banking messaging system.

Russia set up its own banking messaging system, known as SPFS, as an alternative to SWIFT. Its own card payment system MIR began operating in 2015.

[…] They were part of Moscow’s efforts to develop homegrown financial tools to mirror Western ones, to protect the country in case penalties against Moscow were broadened.

The finance ministry said BRICS ministers have confirmed the importance of cooperation in efforts to stabilise the current economic situation.

“The current crisis is man-made, and the BRICS countries have all necessary tools to mitigate its consequences for their economies and the global economy as a whole,” Siluanov said. (link)

For a deep dive on BRICS, as predicted by CTH, {SEE HERE}.  The bottom line is – the 2022 punitive economic and financial sanctions by the western nations’ alliance against Russia was exactly the reason why BRICS assembled in the first place.

The multinational corporate control of government is exactly what the BRICS assembly foresaw when they first assembled during the Obama administration.  When multinational corporations run the policy of western government, there is going to be a problem.

In the bigger picture, the BRICS assembly are essentially leaders who do not want corporations and multinational banks running their government. BRICS leaders want their government running their government; and yes, that means whatever form of government that exists in their nation, even if it is communist.

BRICS leaders are aligned as anti-corporatist.  That doesn’t necessarily make those government leaders better stewards, it simply means they want to make the decisions, and they do not want corporations to become more powerful than they are.  As a result, if you really boil it down to the common denominator, what you find is the BRICS group are the opposing element to the World Economic Forum assembly.

The countries run by multinational corporations are in Yellow, the countries who have not yet chosen a side are in GREY:

The BRICS team intend to create an alternative option for all the other nations. An alternative to the current western trade and financial platforms operated on the use of the dollar as a currency.  Perhaps many nations will use both financial mechanisms depending on their need.

The objective of the BRICS group is simply to present an alternative trade mechanism that permits them to conduct business regardless of the opinion of the multinational corporations in the ‘western alliance.’

Interview: The Russia/Ukraine Story From Martin Armstrong

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to watch Martin Armstrong’s latest interview with Patrick Timpone from One Radio.

Eurozone Inflation and ECB Incompetence

Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Apr 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

According to Eurostat, the European Union statistics company, inflation in Europe rose to a new all-time high in March after advancing by 7.5%. This surpassed the high of 5.9% set in February and marks the fifth consecutive month of inflation in the Eurozone. Europe’s reliance on Russian energy has resulted in a 44.7% uptick in energy prices in March after rising 32% the month prior. Food prices rose 5% in March as increased costs for suppliers are passed down to consumers. The price of goods such as clothing went up 3.4%, while services advanced 2.7%.

The US and Britain have both raised rates in a too little, too late effort to combat inflation. Will the European Central Bank (ECB) follow suit? The ECB voted to maintain the 0% benchmark rate during their March meeting. ECB president Christine Lagarde is in no rush to raise rates.

The ECB moved to negative rates in 2014, and 2022 is now representing 8.6 years since that detrimental decision and we are seeing everything hit the fan. This entire Great Reset is now due to the fiscal mismanagement of governments and central banks. Those who still think there will be some return to normal finance are no doubt those wearing masks and lining up for booster shots every six months.

The central banks are keenly aware that they cannot stimulate economic growth, although they will not state that publicly. The wheel of fortune has completed its revolution.

Planet Lockdown – Full Interviews Available

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Planet Lockdown has released the full interviews from their documentary, including the ones that did not make the final documentary. Click here to view the full interviews (translations available in numerous languages).

Additionally, the producers have made the film available free of charge. Click here to view the full documentary (translations available in numerous languages as well).

Biden Confirms this is World War III

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Mar 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This Tweet by Biden has effectively confirmed we are entering World War III and this is intentional. The sales point is this is Democracy, which we do not have otherwise the people would be voting on war or peace, not his staff, and autocracy, which in this case is no different. The decisions in the Washington and Moscow are being made by the elite – not the people in either country. Of course, Putin’s demand that Zelensky allows the Donbas a free election is what is being denied and the press wants to pretend this is about democracy when it is not. I have plenty of Ukrainian friends and they too did not vote for war.

So, unfortunately, they will stir up the emotion to hate Putin so they get their way. But this is the end of Western civilization as we have known it. Socrates will be correct again. Every step Biden is taking is to end Western Civilization as we have known it. Post-2024 into 2032 will be the worst of it. But for now, the computer is pointing to 2023 and the start of serious violence globally. This is NOT what the world has voted for. This is why I have warned that REPUBLICS are the worse form of government and they are indistinguishable from the pretended autocratic government we are supposed to be willing to die to end.

This reminds me of the story of Croesus, king of Lydia. He asked the Oracle at Delphi if he waged war upon Persia would he win. The Oracle replied – a great empire will be destroyed. He took that as his victory. He lost and the collapse of the great empire was his. Ah how stupidity causes history to repeat.

Capital Flows Confirm War is Coming!

Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow Re-Posted Mar 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Our models have confirmed that Biden’s sanctions against all Russians have undeniably destroyed the global economy unfortunately precisely on time from its birth in 1950. Our capital flow models have confirmed that there has been an unprecedented cash outflow from China following Biden’s sanctions. Not only are we witnessing a withdrawal of Western capital from China realizing that the US has no interest in peace and China will be next, but we are also looking at collapsing confidence in globalization continuing from here on out.

Our models have confirmed a highly unusual change in direction of the global capital flows which is even showing up in the emerging markets. China saw investors pull out from its share markets over concerns that we are clearly headed into World War III. Historically, the capital flows to the dollar during world war under the assumption that tanks will not be landing on the beaches of Virginia or California. This will tend to support the dollar, but not long-term. Biden’s sanctions attacking individual Russians have turned into a nightmare. Besides the Czech Republic seizing ALL assets of any Russian based upon their ethnicity as they were doing to the Japanese during World War II in the United States, now even Switzerland is doing the same thing.

These sanctions are not going to cause regime change and the overthrow of Putin with Russians running into the arms of the West. This is outright hatred of Russians as a people and they will have no choice but bond with China in an all-out war against this outrageous tyranny. I seriously doubt that Biden even understands what he is doing at the directions of these Neocons who have infiltrated the White House.

These Neocons are bringing the entire world to destruction which some argue is all part of their plan to enable the world to BUILD BACK BETTER which necessitates the destruction of the current energy system and reduction of population to make Bill Gates sleep easy at night. So the next season of BUILD BACK BETTER may be the climax.

Our model has ALWAYS picked up the shifts in capital flows that precede war. This time we are witnessing outflows not just from China, but also from ALL emerging markets on a scale that is simply unprecedented. The timing of outflows is clearly linked to Biden’s unprecedented sanctions against the Russian people – not just Russia itself as a political state. This has NEVER taken place in history before with the single exception of the US sanctions imposed on Japan and the freezing of all their assets in the United States which preceded Pearl Harbor.

It pains me to have to even write this today. But clearly, those who understand where this is going is to World War III and make no mistake about it – this is INTENTIONAL! Even the official data has revealed that foreign investors have sold a net $5.5 billion of Chinese government bonds in the last few weeks. Biden stupidly threatened China that if they support Russia, they will suffer the same sanctions. This is just insane and it is DELIBERATELY trying to destroy the entire world economy.

Even from NATO, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference on March 24, “China must not provide economic or military support for the Russian invasion.” The previous day he accused Beijing of spreading “blatant lies and misinformation.” What they are calling “misinformation” is anything that challenges the West’s own propaganda. They want WAR for the demands of Putin are reasonable – Ukraine remains neutral, surrender Donbas and Crimea which are all ethnic Russians when Zelensky passed the language law that Russian is no longer to be an official language in Ukraine. That is the same as telling all Spanish if you do not speak English – get out.

All we can do is write to every political leader and DEMAND accountability for the Biden Administration is out to BUILD BACK BETTER, but that requires total destruction first.