Oscar viewing fell below 10 million, a crash mode from last year’s historic low of 23.6 million viewers compared to nearly 30 million in 2019 pre-COVID. The entire entertainment industry, from movies and Oscars to football and sports, indicates that the future is not so bright and sunny.
I warned back in 2016 that football was entering a bear market. Indeed, 2015 was the peak that lined up with our Economic Confidence Model. It appears we are heading into a major low by 2023. However, the final low may not appear until 2027/2028. I have also warned that politics does NOT belong in entertainment, be it Hollywood or on the football field. People turn to entertainment to be entertained — not indoctrinated by their political views.
Interestingly, 2015.75 was the start of the Big Bang, the sovereign debt crisis that will lead to the total collapse of governmental debt on a global scale 17.2 years from that turning point — 2032. The fact that entertainment also peaked with 2015.75 is indicative of the collapse in the public confidence in the government, which is becoming escalated by this COVID manipulation where these morons think they can destroy the economy and build it back better when in fact, they are only fulfilling the forecast of our model.
The two states that are dictating what goes down in Washington are California with Pelosi in the House and New York with Schumer. Now they will reap what they have sown. The 2020 Census report is out and despite the Democrat’s desperate attempt to count illegal aliens, both New York and California are losing seats. Indeed, the seven states where people are fleeing from are the Democratic states that have imposed the Nazi tactics of lockdowns and curfews. Each of the Democratic states will lose a seat in the House – New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
Indeed, perhaps the most disgusting governor of the lot is really the billionaire James Conley Justice II of West Virginia. He is the richest man in West Virginia but inherited his wealth from his father who had a coal mining business. He is characterized as a deadbeat in business. He is the 36th governor of West Virginia since 2017. In 2015, he announced his candidacy for governor in the 2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election. Despite being a registered Republican before running for governor, he ran as a Democrat and defeated the Republican nominee, Bill Cole.
The seats lost to California and New York are going to Florida and Texas with the former gaining one seat and Texas gains two seats. New York lost around 1.4 million residents to other states between 2010 to 2019, according to a report by the Empire Center released in January 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic arrived in the U.S. This Census does not really take into account the massive exodus from both states thanks to COVID which has picked up steam in 2021. Indications are that over 3 million people have left New york. Even rents in New York City are in crash mode as so many people have just left the high taxes and the extremist lockdowns. Meanwhile, violence in New York City is reaching new records with 46 shootings in a single week. The likelihood of the police ever regaining control is not very promising. Teenage suicides are rising sharply in the Democratic states. The lockdowns have been causing suicides among the youth on a global scale.
The population of California stopped peaking several years before the coronavirus pandemic thanks to taxes. Newsom’s insane lockdown saw 2020 mark California losing more residents to outmigration than it gained. Residents have migrated to Texas primarily as well as to neighboring states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon. The northern Democratic states have a net migration to Florida. The Republican states gained and the Democratic states lost. The more extreme the state response to COVID, the higher the probability of their seat loss. Based upon the new Census, the House can easily flip as the Democrats, who really have only a 2 seat voting majority, can find themselves out the door.
In our Election Report last year, we warned that in addition to the likelihood of New York losing a seat, there would be a consolidation in New York City and that may result in losing our best Congressional entertainment – AOC who has singled handily terminated jokes about dumb blonds providing hair color has no real significance.
COMMENT: I find it interesting how two people the general consensus has said were scoundrels, John Law and Julius Caesar, you have shown were actually people against the establishment. I read your Anatomy of a Debt Crisis and you have put together the contemporary historians where everyone else just seems to rely on the fake news of the day.
Thank you for digging up the facts.
HY
REPLY: When I was in high school, I had to read Galbraith’s “Great Crash.” Nowhere in his book did he ever mention defaults on national debts by any country. When I came across Herbert Hoover’s memoirs in an old book store in London, this was probably the second thing that changed my life, with the first being the movie “The Toast of New York” about the Panic of 1869 when gold hit $162.50, which I had to watch in history class. I learned not to trust the history books, and the best way to find out the truth was always to return to the contemporary reports of history and/or the newspapers of the time.
The coinage has been a major factor in identifying the history and accurately dating events. Here is an extremely rare coin of Julius Caesar. Note that there is no portrait of him. He is announcing his victory in Gaul. His Gallic campaign was initially a piecemeal affair, but within six years, he had expanded Roman rule over the whole of Gaul. Following years of relative success, mainly thanks to the disconnected nature of the tribes allowing him to take them on separately (divide and conquer), Caesar was faced with the chief of the Arverni tribe, Vercingetorix, who too late had built a confederation to stand against Caesar. In 52 BC, despite formidable resistance, Caesar finally defeated Vercingetorix at the Battle (or Siege) of Alesia. This illegal war which by Caesar’s own account had left a million dead, was instrumental in elevating him to a position of supreme power among the statesmen of the late Republic, making him incredibly wealthy through war booty and also making him dangerously popular with the plebs — the common people.
This coin was struck in the course of Caesar’s war against the Senatorial faction led by Pompey and later Metellus Scipio. Caesar’s triumphant coinage trumpets his military achievements and conquest in Gaul while reminding the bearer also of his claimed descent from Venus through Aeneas. Interestingly, behind the bust is how old he is IIL or 48 years old. The reverse figure tied below the trophy of arms is popularly believed to depict the defeated Vercingetorix. The figure is carefully rendered in detail of how the Gauls appeared unshaven often with tattoos in blue to frighten their opponents.
In order to consolidate his power when he returned, Caesar produced triumphant coinage to spread the news of his military capability. The reverse of this coin is popularly believed to depict Vercingetorix himself. In 48-47 BC, the defeated Gallic chieftain still languished in the Tullianum, the underground prison beneath the Comitium. He would be hauled out for Caesar’s triumph in 46 BC, then returned to his cell and strangled.
This example of Julius Caesar AR Denarius was struck by a military mint moving with Caesar to pay the troops on a regular basis between 48-47 BC.
This is a Roman silver denarius struck by Brutus announcing he killed Caesar on the Ides of March 15, 44 BC (EID MAR). As you can see, the coinage can actually be used to confirm history to the year and sometimes to even the very day.
Many people have asked, “Why is 2032 going to be such a major change in the world’s political economy and society as a whole?”
We are confronted by the end of the Sixth Wave come 2032, which will be a profound economic and political change. It appears these world leaders are pushing us toward fulfilling the vision of Kalus Schwab and his distorted view of how society functions. While the first wave marked the collapse of Rome, 794 marked the collapse of the Nara period in Japan as the capital then moved to Kyoto. That would last until 1185 AD when government was overthrown, marking the birth of the Shogun Period (military general authority). The Great Seljuk Turkish Empire had its origins, with its first capital in 1037. By 1092, the Seljuk Empire was at its greatest upon Malik Shah I’s death and had captured most of the Byzantine Empire, creating the Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 in Constantinople. Alexius I (1081-1118AD) of Byzantium saw his empire carved up.
It was 1075 when the Investiture Dispute began, where the Pope opposed kings appointing bishops to control. He had to threaten the ex-communication of kings, which only concluded in 1103. This was the start of the separation of church and state. In 1084, Emperor Henry IV deposed Pope Gregory VII and installed the first Anti-Pope Clement III who then crowned Henry Holy Roman Emperor. A revolution in 1094 resulted in Pope Urban II overthrowing the Anti-Pope and Henry lost power over Italy. But by 1111, Henry V captured the Pope, forced his settlement, and then crowned Henry V as Holy Roman Emperor. By 1112, the Church splits between Papal and Imperial supporters.
The Balkans had been overrun by the Patzinaks who were a nomadic people of the Turkic family. Their original home is unknown, but during the 8th and 9th centuries, they inhabited the region between the lower Volga and the Urals. They then laid siege to Constantinople itself in 1090 AD. They led Alexius to ask for help from Venice, which began the First Crusade (1096–1099) where they took Jerusalem. But the Venetians were more interested in plundering Constantinople. Thus, 1104 marked the peak in the Byzantine Empire and by the Latin rulers who seized Byzantium taking control 1204-1261 AD. It wasn’t until 1298 when the reign of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire, began.
The financial crisis in France led to the default on loans to Italian bankers and the seizure of the Papacy itself moving it to Avignon in France known as the Avignon Papacy, also known as the Babylonian Captivity, which was period from 1309 to 1376. The French Anti-Pope seized the Knights Templars on Friday, October 13, 1307, to confiscate all their wealth and that of their clients. The Knights Templars had become the first real international banking system as they evolved following their founding around 1117/1118 AD, lasting for 22 waves of 8.6 years. This next wave also saw the Black Plague (1347-1351) wipe out 50% of the population, which then changed the economy by shifting it from serfdom in Europe to capitalism as wages began to take place because of the shortage of labor.
The next peak in the cycle 1413.75 marked the start of the religious revolution. In England, the Oldcastle Revolt was a Lollard uprising against both the Catholic Church and the English King Henry V. Oldcastle was influenced by Lollard cleric William Swynderby, who preached in Almeley during his youth. Lollardy was a politico-religious movement initiated by prominent theologian John Wycliffe during the 1370s. The Lollard beliefs dealt with their opposition to capital punishment, rejection of religious celibacy, and belief that members of the Clergy should be held accountable to civil laws. In addition, it was the rise of the iconoclasty, which took place in the Byzantine Empire, where they rejected ornamentation of churches, religious images, and pilgrimages. They objected to war, violence, and abortion. John Oldcastle led the revolt, and it took place on the night of 9/10 January 1414. The rebellion was absolutely crushed at the battle on St. Giles’s Fields. There was rising discontent in religion that manifested on October 31, 1517, when Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to the door of the Wittenberg Castle church in Germany.
This next wave peaked in 1723.35, not merely saw the Protestant Reformation impact region, but with the fall of Constantinople in 1453, scholars fled to Europe and Russia, taking the wealth of knowledge with them. By 1492, Christopher Columbus convinced others that the world was round and not flat based upon maps that came from Constantinople. While it would slowly expand the knowledge in Europe, the Age of Enlightenment is formally classified as being between 1715-1789, which really became the foundation for the next wave into 2032.
But this wave was the beginning of the crisis with a monarchy. Columbus was backed by Spain, which then became the new financial capital of Europe. But the mismanagement by the monarchy led to Spain becoming a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647, ending in a third world status by the end of this wave. King Philip V of Spain abdicated the throne in 1724 to go to a monastery.
In England, on October 17, 1722, the Habeas Corpus Act was suspended because of a Jacobite plot to take the thrown by a Catholic James III they called the Old Pretender, and Parliament prohibited journalists from reporting on political debates. From here on out, the tone for the next wave was set in motion. The rise against the monarchy. This was the wave of human rights and it moves into its culmination come 2032 with the rise against human rights and the attempt once more to suppress the people with the rise of authoritarianism. This is once more a major turning point, and we will face a dramatic change both economically and politically on a global scale.
The forthcoming “The Discovery of the Business Cycle” goes into the details of these waves throughout history with not merely political facts but also the rise and fall of the world’s monetary system.
QUESTION: First I want to thank you for your guidance. You have helped me understand markets where I can see I was clueless before. You seem to be a contrarian. I take it that is why you say the majority must always be wrong. Have you learned this to be the best way to look at the world?
Thank you for shining a light in these dark times.
GR
ANSWER: The greatest traders of all time have always been contrarians. They can see the patterns within patterns and how history repeats right before their eyes. Jesse Livermore (1877 – 1940) turned bullish in 1923. He could see the bull market coming. The Wall Street Journal accused him of turning bullish to influence the presidential elections. When they were proven wrong, they simply refused ever to quote Jesse ever again. Many have pointed out that Barrons had reported that our model was calling for new highs back in 2010 more as a joke. They have never reported ever again how it was correct. It appears that the media does not like it when they are wrong and will retaliate.
Hetty Green (1834-1916) was a woman in a man’s world. She became not just one of the wealthiest and most astute investors in American history, but she became the richest woman perhaps in the world. Hetty’ was known for her extreme frugality, which was exploited by her adversaries and made for good copy in the press. They dubbed her the “Witch of Wall Street” because she was such a good trader her wealth could outdo even the top ten Wall Street bankers in her day. She was in reality a woman in a man’s world, during the era of robber barons when deals were done in dark oak wooden rooms filled with cigar smoke clouds that you would think it was going to rain.
Her reputation as the “Witch of Wall Street” was undeserved and today they would call it sexist. Hetty was the first female billionaire in modern terms who would be worth $10 billion+ in 2021. When she died in 1916, she was worth between $100-$125 million when a dollar was really worth something. She actually despised many of the titans of industry and finance of the day for their predatory ways and profligate spending. She actually sympathized more with the average hardworking citizen, yet she followed in her father’s Quaker footsteps.
Hetty Green was the woman of the Gilded Age. Few men could compete with her mentally. Hetty was abandoned at birth by her mother and she was viewed as a female by her father. Against this backdrop, Hetty set out as a child to prove she was of substance and had value. She followed the simple rules of her wealthy Quaker father, and always was extremely frugal. She would accompany him to the counting houses, storehouses, commodity, and stockbrokers. She observed trading from an early age and clearly saw the patterns within patterns.
While she inherited money, she understood trading. Perhaps her greatest trade was buying greenback bonds during the Civil War and into the panic of 1869. Some painted it as she never lost faith in America’s potential, but from a practical standpoint, she could see that the North was the industrial hub against the South which was agricultural. Others claim she just ignored the herd mentality and took advantage of financial panics and crises.
Indeed, during the civil war, Hatty bought federal bonds when the greenback would collapse against gold. In 1862, the greenback declined against gold until the end of the year when gold was trading at a 29% premium to the paper greenbacks. The following year, by spring of 1863, the greenback collapsed to $152 against $100 in gold. After the Gettysburg victory, the greenback bounced back to $131 to $100 in gold. Then came 1864 when General Grant was making very little headway against General Lee. When it looked bleak in 1864, that is when the Greenback collapsed to its lowest point reaching during July 1864 briefly to $258 greenbacks to $100 in gold.
The Greenback began to recover, dropping back to the $1509 level. Congress limited the total issue of greenbacks to $450 million, which helped to support their value. Then the Panic of 1869 hit, and Greenbacks fell again to $162.50. Hetty made a fortune buying the Greenbacks at the lows. Then in December 1878, Congress made the Greenbacks on par with gold. What bonds in Greenbacks she was buying, she gained not just the interest but also about doubled her money on this trade alone.
Therefore, Hetty bought railroads, real estate, and bonds. She could smell blood in the streets, as they say in financial markets, and she was there to buy it up. Men mocked her, and women scoffed at her frugal ways. Nevertheless, she had thick skin, and because she would buy in the panics and win, they called her the “Witch of Wall Street.” Yet, she even supplied the loans that kept the city of New York itself from going bankrupt. Even when the markets panicked, Hetty looked at the trend and had a nose for seeing the market. She would be there lending money at 25%.
Hetty is said to have relished a challenge. When her aunt died and did not leave Hetty the fortune she expected, she filed a groundbreaking lawsuit that still resonates in law schools and courts. When her husband defied her and sank her money on his own risky interests, she threw him out and, marching down to Wall Street, quickly making up the loss. Her independence, outspokenness, and disdain for the upper crust earned her a reputation for harshness that endured for decades. Yet, those who knew her admired her warmth, her wisdom, and her wit.
When Hetty died, she did leave a fortune.
Her son, Edward Howland Robinson Green (1868-1936), was not so frugal. He was an avid collector and bought the famous sheet of 100 inverted air mail stamps in 1918, paying $20,000. The last example sold after a few years and brought in $1.3 million. He also had bought all five of the known 1913 Liberty Head nickels and as many as seven of the rare 1838-O half dollars. He also held dozens of high-grade 1796 quarters.
COMMENT: Marty, Happy Pi Day. This was your destiny since you grew up in a house numbered 314.
Cheers
HB
REPLY: Perhaps you are right. I never thought about Pi until I was trying to figure out how the model would work precisely at times to the very day as it did in 1987. I was dumbfounded. I had thought the 8.6 was just an average. I had no idea that it was a derivative of Pi – 8.615384615. But that is the way research should be conducted. I never began with a theory I was trying to prove and thus only looked for supporting data. I think all the great discoveries in human history are by accident.
I am working right now on The Geometry of Time. I am covering all the various people who have pondered even what is TIME from Aristotle to Richard Feynman and his proposition that antimatter is matter moving backward in TIME. I am trying to cover all the various methods over the centuries that many have looked at exploring TIME. I believe that cyclical analysis is the best way to ascertain a glimpse of TIME and the state of the future.
I am working hard to get this next book The Geometry of Time out and its companion the Discovery of the Business Cycle – The Economic Confidence Model.
In Tuscany, Italy, a major discovery has been made of the only amphitheater to have been discovered that was never excavated before. This is being called the “Archaeological Discovery of the Century,” for everything else has been cleared over by people for centuries. The location is the ancient Italian city of Volterra, which was once part of the Etruscan culture dating back to the 8th century BC that was eventually conquered by Rome. The coinage of Volterra was cast bronze clearly showing that the monetary system dated back to the Bronze Age when the Minoan culture was the great empire prior to 1650 BC and the eruption of Thera known today as Santorini.
The archaeological discovery is very important. It will be most interesting to see what comes out of this site, but then again, they are using COVID to crush society for the real end goal of climate change.
QUESTION: Hi Martin, Thank you so much for sharing the connections Socrates is making between seemingly unrelated ideas. I’m a high school/collegiate science teacher and am wondering if Socrates has identified any correlations between coming astronomical phenomenon (like lunar phases or planetary alignment) to war or the economy. The information you’ve provided on the Sun has been amazing! BTW, my students and I use the information you blog about as the foundation for the conversations in our Socratic seminars. Thanks for all you do! MC
ANSWER: I have never input the planetary information into Socrates. The Moon is capable of picking up the ocean and moving it creating a high and low tide. I would think it can have some influence on people but probably highly differential because we are all perhaps sensitive to various things on an unequal basis. The terms “lunatic” and stories of werewolves are all about people who were sensitive to the moon.
The attempt to correlate the heavens and events on earth as omens of the future date back to the Babylonians. I have been asked this question many times because some of our dates may align with some astronomical phenomena. I would look at it as a separate model. Our Arrays have some 72 different models. They are not a single cycle. There are many. Even take volatility. How do you define it? We have overnight volatility from today’s close to tomorrow’s open. Then there is internal volatility which is the percentage movement between high and low for the day. Then there can be closing volatility measured from yesterday’s close to today and likewise between openings. There are many aspects that the computer is looking at and then it correlates between markets, countries, etc. There are far too many calculations for any individual to do every day.
After my experience with cycles, they go through inversion processes where the same targets remain fixed, but instead of a low, it becomes a high. I would suspect that attempts to use astronomical phenomena will result in the same outcome. The same event will not always produce a high or low. This simply takes place because every market is influenced by everything else around it. It really takes a supercomputer to work out the countless possibilities.
That is why I say my opinion is just personal. Anytime I have thought something would happen which Socrates has disagreed with, I am the one who is wrong. So I have learned. My job is to provide some clarity, but it is not to forecast the future from a personal opinion perspective. Forecasting Civil Unrest was not something that came to me in the middle of the night. It is not even something I personally would have preferred to see.
And BTW, I have been a programmer all my life. I do not see how it is possible for a program to EVER become aware of itself and then dominate humanity. I can mimic human emotion, but I cannot create it for real. And to set the record straight, I have been the ONLY coder on the AI systems behind Socrates. This has been my life’s work. We have a whole team of programmers who manage the delivery systems. But as for the AI, in all honesty, I had the skill to program, I also had the skill to trade, but I also had the clients to show me with a front-row seat how they all look at the world economy from their own perspective. That is why there is no competition for Socrates. It has taken over 50 years to create what you see.
It is also why nobody wants to address Socrates because it changes the entire forecasting game where people advise they are the guy who forecasts some event so see what he is saying next. Personal forecasting is not consistent.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong,
If this “Great Reset” movement pushes gold underground, what kind of a future do we really have?
HR
ANSWER: On election night, Trump should win. However, the real question will be the mail-in ballots, and are they legitimate. As I have said, it really does not matter who wins from the perspective of the model warning that we will see a rise in civil unrest. NEITHER side will accept a loss. As I have said before, if the guy you voted for lost, it was no big deal, you went on with your life. Obama may have said all kinds of nonsense against Bush from Quantanamo was illegal to his authorization of tapping into US phones. But at the end of the day, Quantanomo was still there when Obama left and the surveillance only increased under Obama. The DEEP STATE runs the show and the trend never really changed.
If you look to France, they imposed a 10% tax on gold. I have friends there you buy their gold but post it to Belgium. We have to understand that is far beyond simply Republican v Democrat. Those are the old days. These people are really trying to seize control of the world to push their agenda of POPULATION CONTROL and CLIMATE CHANGE.
There is no way they will achieve their goal. This is wildly naive and it requires an academic to come up with this nonsense. There are two things that they have completely gotten wrong and it seems willing. (1) Climate Change and (2) the Business Cycle. Civilization expands with warming periods and contracts during cold periods. To listen to these people who argue that climate change is caused by humans cannot be supported by the data. We certainly do not want to live in pollution. We need clean air and clear water. But pollution does not change the climate. There are far bigger cycles at work.
Insofar as the business cycle is concerned, this is driven also by weather as well as innovation. The idea that we can create an economy that is the perfect utopia where there is never a recession or depression is absolute nonsense. Just look at any market from stocks and bonds to commodities. Everything fluctuates.
These two assertions that they can manipulate the climate and smooth the business cycle to create the perfect world is the dreams of madmen who are not satisfied with the way things actually work in this universe.
The BOTTOM LINE will be capital flows. What we must be concerned about is that there will be capital restraints imposed in different countries. Cutting off international travel is highly dangerous. The USA is no exception. All my staff outside the country cannot visit for everyone’s visa has been canceled. In Europe, Americans will be prohibited from traveling there without preapproval BEFORE you can even buy a ticket starting in 2021 and that was before COVID. We are staring at a deliberate move to reduce air travel as part of this Climate Change agenda without formally stating so.
This is no longer about Republic/Conservative v Democrat/Labour. There is a much bigger agenda taking place which will dictate the direction of the world economy ahead of us.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 