Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada
Re-Posted Apr 4, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
In Canada, the left is urging lawsuits against oil companies to force them to pay for all the damage to the climate. Honestly, the oil companies should announce that they will layoff all Canadians and shut down all operations in Canada. Perhaps then these extremists will get what it means to go without oil: no more heating your home, no more driving to work, and no more food production for there will be no way to get the food to market. If you wanted to flee Canada, you would have to do so only with what you could carry in a backpack.
We are in Global Cooling!! not warming !!
Published on Mar 8, 2017
The following is a comment I have added.
I agree with the basic premise of Murray; but I have one correction we are in a pause not a mini ice age. The long cycle is likely not to go down, easing all the previous increase for another ~100 years we are only ~900 years into the ~1000 year primary cycle. The base we are measuring from is 14.0 Degrees Celsius (an arbitrary number) and the 2.0 Degrees Celsius limit that is the point of no return according to AOC is from that point. We are now just under 15.0 Degrees Celsius so there is only 1.0 Degrees Celsius of their buffer left. The following charge shows a simple statistical projection based on current NOAA and NASA data. The chart is in percentages but it shows us that the amount of heat in the atmosphere is not likely to exceed 160 Degrees Celsius until after 2050 so all the projects are going to be 100% wrong!
The 8.6-Year Cycle in the Sun & Solar
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Apr 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Solar storms are important events yet they come in different sizes and different types. They are caused by disturbances on the Sun, and are most often coronal clouds associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are produced by solar flares emanating from active sunspot regions. They can also erupt from rarer coronal holes. Solar filaments (solar prominences) may in fact also trigger CMEs. What is interesting is that putting the data into our computer produced an 8.6-year cycle that operated in intensity peaking every 224 years. Here is the list of the major solar storms:
2225 BC
1485 BC
≈660 BC
95 AD
265 AD
774–775 carbon-14 spike (“Red Crucifix” aurora event over British Isles)
993-994 carbon-14 spike (Intense auroras that migrated south during the 990s)
1460 AD
1505 AD
1707 AD
1709 AD
1719 AD
There was a very major storm in 660 BC as well as the Red Crucifix event of 774/775 AD. The event of 774 is the strongest spike over the last 11,000 years in the record of cosmogenic isotopes, but it is not unique by far. Nevertheless, the event of 774/775 AD appears to have been global, with the same carbon-14 signal found in tree rings from Japan, Germany, Russia, the United States, and New Zealand. A similar event occurred in 993 or 994, but it was only 0.6 times as strong and also in 660 BC.
The intensity follows a cycle of 224 years in duration which comports to the same time frame that revealed the Economic Confidence Model. The period of 224 years divided by 26 financial waves of panic revealed the frequency of 8.6-years which was a derivative of Pi – 3,145 days. There are events which take place on the half and quarter cycle events as well, but of course, they differ in intensity. It appears to have also signaled the shift in the sun would have taken place about 2006. Indeed, Sunspot 905 during 2006 showed up warning that the field was reversing the magnetic polarity. With the aura once again moving south, it appears that we are headed into a phase where solar storms will increase. The sunspots have declined sharply 8.6 years later and this warns we may have strange weather into 2024.
Climate Change & Democrats Refuse to Vote
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Mar 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Despite all the outrageous rhetoric from AOC and her New Green Deal, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell brought the Green New Deal resolution up for a vote without any hearings after a brief floor debate. He wanted the world to see that shutting down all air transportation and ending anything with fossil fuels would not go well with the American people. So McConnell gave the Democrats in the Senate their chance to show the world just how extreme they have become.
Yes, McConnell wanted to allow the Democrats to show everyone their agenda as environmental radicals. The Democrats blinked and voted “present,” so they refused to go on record for this New Green Deal that would have no doubt been used in 2020 against them. However, with this stunt, they are claiming that they can be for it or against it since they refused to vote. How will a voter even know what they stand for? Do you vote for a person who then wants to end all air travel? One would think that is a fairly radical proposal that warrants a clear response.
A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, February 2019
From the attached report on climate change for February 2019 we have the two charts showing how much has the global temperature actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up about 30.0% from 1958 to February of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.
The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or twenty years.
The full 37 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data are used with out change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to compliment that plan will be a world wide disaster.
Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.
Greenland Glacier has been Growing for the past 2 years & it will Probably end up 3 for 3 when this season ends
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Mar 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is clear that your computer is really amazing. I was just ready how the Greenland Glacier is expanding, not melting. What you have accomplished by seeking to eliminate yourself is really a major contribution to society.
Job well done, sir.
PH
REPLY: Thank you. A number of people have read the same article and have been sending it in. I would like to also thank all the people who have dome sone and your comments. It is so important to eliminate bias. I moved to Florida trying to find Global Warming. To me, it is just stunning how people do not understand that everything has a cycle from weather to why we must eventually die. The Greenland glacier 2012 was retreating about 1.8 miles back in 2012 annually. However, as the climate has been getting colder nor for the third year, interestingly enough, the Greenland Glacier has begun to grow in mass once again.
This is NOT a forecast I want to see happen. I hate cold. So I do not enjoy even having to say see I told you so. Wish I was wrong on this one.
World In Midst of Carbon Drought (w/ Prof. William Happer, Princeton University)
Published on Jun 22, 2015
Princeton physicist: There’s a ‘cult’ building around climate scientists
Climate Change, Midwest Floods & Food Shortages
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Mar 25, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The Great Flood of 1927, flooded the lower Mississippi River valley in April 1927. It was one of the worst natural disasters in American history. More than 23,000 square miles of land was submerged, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced, and around 250 people died. The flooding impacted areas in Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Following that Great Flood of 1927, we then see the climate swing dramatically in the opposite direction into the extreme drought that led to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The Dust Bowl was a period of severe dust storms that greatly damaged agriculture in the Midwest prairies during the 1930s. The Dust Bowl was a severe drought that came in three primary waves, 1934, 1936, and 1939–1940. The entire event actually complied with our Economic Confidence Model when many regions of the high plains experienced drought conditions for eight years.
Unfortunately, the global warming people are already out in force and blaming this on moms driving the kids to soccer matches. They always pretend these are catastrophic events never before seen. Cars were not really in wide use until post-1940s. They could care less about history or truth. The cycle is very clear. This major flooding which may destroy at least 6 billion bushels of wheat is a prelude to what is coming.
Long before there was the Global Warming crowd, there were the record-setting heat waves and drought of the 1930s that contributed to the Great Depression and wiping out agriculture that was employing 40% of the civil workforce at the start of the century. There were runs of extreme temperatures which broke all records. There was a stretch of 11 days straight in July with temperatures over 100. The two worst years were 1930 and 1936.
Today, they would be demanding action and 11 days over 100 degrees Al Gore would be yelling this proves he is right. Of course, back then, there were no fleets of cars to blame no less soccer moms.
This is all part of the cycle. We have extreme floods now, then swings of heat during the summer to create droughts, then the climate turns down and progressively moves into a colder pattern.
Aurora Borealis Warning the Climate May Turn Sharply Colder into 2032
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Mar 23, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
There may actually be a confirmation that we are heading into a much colder climate. The Aurora Borealis, also known as the Northern Lights, can now be seen in the UK. Normally, the Northern Lights can be seen only extremely north as in Alaska. Sir Edmund Halley (1656 – 1742), the man who discovered Halley’s Comet, was a friend of Isaac Newton. He was asked to speak about the unusual events that were taking place in the sky. He addressed the British Royal Society, stating:
The Royal Society, having received accounts from very many parts of Great Britain, of the unusual lights which have of late appeared in the heavens ; were pleased to signify their desires to me, that I should draw up a general resation (sic) of the fact, and explain more at large some conceptions of mine I had proposed to them about it, as seeming to some of them to render a tollerable [sic] solution of the very strange and surprizing [sic] phænomena thereof.
During the period of Halley’s investigation, the Little Ice Age dominated the decades and it bottomed around 1680. The Aurora Borealis actually expands and moves further south during periods of a colder climate. The Northern Lights being visible in the UK is not a good sign for climate change. This may be warning that we are headed back to a prolonged colder climate. Solar cycle 14 had the record high for sunspots during February in 1906. The annual peak took place in 1957 with 190 sunspots taking place that year. Based upon our models, the ideal low was most likely 1686/1687. From the 1957 high, the collapse to just 10 sunspots per year took place in 1964 — 7 years later.
Just before the Mini Ice Age, sunspot activity peaked during 1787 at 132 (mean) and crashed for 11 years into 1798, dropping to just 4 sunspots. If we continue to witness this declining trend from the 2000 high where there are virtually no sunspots, we appear to be vulnerable to a significant decline at least into 2032.










