The Bank of England All but Admits Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of England (BoE) all but admitted the UK is officially in a recession. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey stated weeks ago that there was nothing the central bank could do to prevent a recession at this stage. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise rates by half a percentage point to 2.25%, marking the highest level since 2008. The markets were expecting a 75 bps hike, but the central bank is moving slowly and aiming to avoid panic.

The central bank foresees a 0.1% drop in GDP over the next three months after experiencing a 0.1% decline last quarter. The CPI report for August came in at 9.9%, which is only a slight drop from July’s 10.1% reading. Winter is coming, and that is when the full impact of the energy crisis will be felt. The BoE believes inflation will rise to 11% in October when energy caps are altered. Like the Federal Reserve, the BOE is a long way from its 2% inflation target and relied on QE for far too long.

The dollar’s strength continues to cause a devaluation in sterling as the USD is seen as the last safe haven.

Jared Kushner Under Fire for Not Supporting Ron DeSantis Political Use of Texas Alien Transfers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 23, 2022 | Sundance

The DeSantis Crew, formerly the 2016 Cruz Crew, is up in arms over a selectively edited soundbite from Jared Kusher, President Trump’s son-in-law. {Direct Rumble Link}

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis went shopping for South American aliens at an El Paso migrant processing facility in Texas.  The DeSantis people took the aliens to a hotel with plans to fly them to Delaware, Joe Biden’s home state.  However, facing backlash over the legality of spending Florida funds on a previous operation to move Texas migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, the DeSantis team abandoned the recruited Venezuelan aliens at the hotel, leaving them confused and stranded.

Jared Kushner noted in a Fox appearance that he did not like the approach of recruiting, manipulating and using arriving aliens as political pawns.  Immediately the DeSantis supporters pulled an 8-second soundbite from a one-hour Fox News appearance and proclaimed Kusher was criticizing Ron DeSantis, which in the world view of Team DeSantis makes Kushner an enemy.  However, the full statement with context is not controversial at all, and in my opinion Kusher is correct.  WATCH:

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The fact that Ron DeSantis sent people to Texas to recruit aliens from an El Paso processing facility with the promise of a flight to Delaware, then abandoned them when the political heat started, literally leaving them at the hotel confused and waiting for a bus that never arrived, shows the operation itself was using aliens as “political pawns,” and it is unseemly.

The DeSantis people can try to spin this against Kushner, but the outrage should really be toward the people working for DeSantis who pulled this stunt.

Massachusetts Energy Companies Announce 64% Increase in Electricity Rates Beginning November 1st


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 22, 2022 | Sundance 

National Grid and Eversource are the two major electricity providers for Massachusetts. Both companies have notified the Department of Public Utilities (DPU) that rates for electricity are about to skyrocket.

National Grid has announced a 64% increase in electricity rates effective November 1st. While Eversource is on a different schedule, they too have announced an increase in natural gas rates of 38% on November 1st and the January 1, 2023, electricity rate will be announced in the next few weeks. Eversource is anticipated to announce a similar rate increase to National Grid. WATCH:

Both major power companies rely on natural gas to create electricity.  Thanks to Joe Biden’s energy policies, which includes the massive export of natural gas in LNG form, domestic prices for natural gas have skyrocketed and will continue increasing as production is further shut down by regulation.

We are helping the EU survive their sanction driven energy crisis by sending them natural gas (LNG format), while simultaneously forcing Americans to pay more in order to maintain the EU export.   Everything about the process is FUBAR.

Massachusetts – […] National Grid said the monthly bill of a typical residential customer using 600 kilowatt-hours of electricity will increase from $179 last winter to about $293 this winter, an increase of about 64%. National Grid said the delivery portion of electric bills will basically remain flat.

“National Grid buys electricity on behalf of its customers from the wholesale power market through a regulatory approved process established 20 years ago. That process has served customers well over the years and provides flexibility for unforeseen events, like limited supplier response to solicitations. But things have fundamentally changed,” Helen Burt, the company’s chief customer officer, said in a statement. “Today, under a sustained, high market price environment, it is challenging to maintain affordable prices. Given that, we think it’s a good time to work with our regulators and other stakeholders to review the process and electricity supply dynamics in the region, with an eye toward reducing price volatility and maintaining a secure, reliable and resilient energy system for the future.”

The company also announced that its natural gas rates are expected to rise on Nov. 1. They said they have a pending proposal with the state Department of Public Utilities that would result in the monthly bill for an average Boston Gas residential heating customer using 115 therms per month of $278, an increase of $50, or 22%, compared to last winter’s rates.

Eversource, the state’s other major electric provider, said in an email that it is on a different schedule than National Grid for setting its electric rates so no increases are currently planned.

“We file electric base service rates twice per year with the DPU,” company spokesman Chris McKinnon said. “Our last change was on July 1, 2022 and our next change will be January 1, 2023, which we will be filing for in the coming months.”

Over the border in New Hampshire, Eversource announced in July that electric rates would be doubling for many residents due to higher natural gas prices fueled in part by the war in Ukraine.

Eversource did announce Wednesday that it has submitted a proposal to the Department of Public Utilities seeking to raise its natural gas rates. They said their average residential customer using 126 therms of gas a month would see an increase of about 38%, or $86 on their natural gas bill over last winter. Those rate increases would take effect Nov. 1.  (read m0re)

A Technical Study of Relationships in Solar Flux, Water and other Gasses in the upper Atmosphere, Using the August, 2022 NASA & NOAA Data


From the attached report on climate change for August 2022 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958? To show this graphically Chart 8a was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about 32.0% from 1958 to August of 2022. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is almost un-measurable at only .4%.

As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for another Chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2 Shown in the next Chart using a different scale.

This is Chart 8 which is the same as Chart 8a except for the scales. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 50 % on the left and 5% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .40%; while CO2 has increased by 32.0% which is 80 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem?

Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be a bit over 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius.

The NOAA and NASA numbers tell us the True story of the

Changes in the planets Atmosphere

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed .

Operation Rolling Blackout: A California story


Habibi Bros. Published originally on Rumble on September 16, 2022 1,627 Views

The Habibi Bros discuss the Rolling Blackouts in California and the energy crisis around the world. Buckle up and grab your drink cause you are going to need it.

On The Radar, Wave 3 of Food Price Inflation Soon to Arrive


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

You know that moment just before the tsunami hits, when the water is pulled out to sea?  Yeah, that.

Media are starting to realize what a destabilizing force ‘food insecurity’ can become as the pre-existing high prices are about to go even higher.

(WASHINGTON, Via The Hill) – […] the five items that have seen the largest year-over-year price increase based on the latest report from the Labor Department, and how much the price has changed: Eggs 39.8%, Margarine: 38.3%, Butter: 24.6%, Flour/prepared flour mixes: 23.3%, Olives, pickles, relish: 19.4%

Many of the items listed in the Consumer Price Index have seen prices rise by more than 15% compared to August 2021. That includes chicken (16.6%), soups (18.5%), cereals (17.4%), and milk (17%).

[…] Worsening food inflation is a particular strain on lower-income families, more of whom have had to turn to food banks and other aid as inflation has worsened. Mary Jane Crouch, executive director of America’s Second Harvest of Coastal Georgia, which works with a network of food banks, told the Associated Press 38% more food was distributed in August compared with July.

Sales at grocery stores rose 0.5% in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Overall spending has slowed and shifted increasingly toward necessities like food, while spending on electronics, furniture, new clothes and other non-necessities has faded. (read more)

The energy driven inflation in seed, fertilizer, diesel fuel, solvents and industrial surfactants is about to travel from the field into the food supply chain with the fall harvest commencing.  Wave 3 food price increases are likely to be higher than the prior two waves combined.

Overlay that pricing issue with global shortages and what do you get?….

Fortunately, I am optimistic that most readers here are well prepared.

Legislation Within the Biden Green New Deal, Inflation Reduction Act, Has Created a Domestic Carbon Trading Platform


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 15, 2022 | Sundance

Deep inside the legislative language of the falsely titled “inflation reduction act”, aka The Green New Deal legislative vehicle constructed by lobbyists and passed by congress, people are now starting to realize a carbon-trading system was created.

Ultimately, a carbon trading system has always been the holy grail of the people who run the western financial system and want to create mechanisms to control wealth by using the ‘climate change’ agenda.

A carbon trading system is a very lucrative financial transfer mechanism with a potential scale to dwarf the derivative, Wall Street betting, market.  Secondarily, such a market would cement the climate change energy policy making it very difficult to reverse.  The new creation as explained by the Wall Street Journal, holds similarities to the EPA ethanol program.

BACKGROUND – The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a government mandate, passed in 2005 and expanded in 2007, that requires growing volumes of biofuels to be blended into U.S. transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel every year.  Approximately 40 percent of corn grown in the U.S. is used for ethanol.  Raising the amount of ethanol required in gasoline will result in the need for more biofuel (corn).

The EPA enforces the biofuel standard by requiring refineries to submit purchase credits (known as Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proving the purchases.  This enforcement requirement sets up a system where the RIN credits are bought and sold by small refineries who do not have the infrastructure to do the blending process.  They purchase second-hand RIN credits from parties that blended or imported biofuels directly. This sets up a secondary income stream, a trading market for the larger oil companies, refineries and importers.

Understanding how that system operates, back in June I said, ‘the RIN credit trading platform is similar to what we might expect to see if the ‘Carbon Trading’ scheme was ever put into place’.  Well, based on the legislation within the Green New Deal/Inflation Reduction Act, that’s exactly what is happening.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – WASHINGTON—A brand-new market for green tax credits is taking shape as bankers and advisers figure out how to funnel tax breaks from energy companies that generate them to profitable corporations eager for smaller tax bills.

The market is forming because Congress last month expanded renewable-energy tax credits and made them transferable in the law known as the Inflation Reduction Act.

[…] The tax-credit sales mark a shift in the U.S. strategy for attracting public and private capital to renewable-energy projects, and they will happen alongside existing climate-finance markets such as carbon offset purchases. The deals won’t start in earnest until 2023, but lawyers and financiers are already structuring transactions. They are discussing arrangements in which credits would be sold at discounts from face value, and they are determining how to cushion tax-credit buyers against potential risks.

“The conversations are happening. The market making is happening right now,” said Nicholas Knapp, senior managing director at CohnReznick Capital in New York.

Within a year or two, it could be easy for a corporation with no direct renewable-energy investment — a profitable retailer, pharmaceutical maker or high-tech company — to purchase tax credits. Because of the expected discounts, companies could earn an instant profit, paying $90 or $95 for a $100 coupon off their income-tax liability.

These transferable credits, however, expose a potential dilemma for Democrats. The party aimed to raise corporate tax bills and prevent large, profitable companies from paying too little. But the tax-credit transfers open a new avenue for many of those same companies to pay less.

“They can basically purchase the tax credits, advance their ESG goals and get certain economics from the credits without taking any construction or operational risk of the project,” said Hagai Zaifman, a partner at Sidley Austin LLP in New York who helps structure renewable-energy deals. (read more)

We know exactly who we have to thank for this, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

Now watch what Senator Joe Manchin’s family starts doing.

De-Energization Plans in California – Lights Out


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Sep 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

California sent out an emergency public notification to warn residents that the power grid was under a strain. Since people are likely unwilling to turn off their power during the summer heat, California is concocting “de-energization” plans. Simply put, California plans to temporarily turn off the power grid in the name of public safety.

This is the same state that plans to eliminate gas-powered cars yet does not have the capability to maintain the current electrical grid. Companies are already creating advice for residents to “get ready for a PSPS” (Public Safety Power Shutoff). PG&E warned that some residents may be without power for “several days.” Their advice seems quite dystopian. Those who will DIE without power due to medical conditions may receive an exemption to power their medical devices.

Several days without electricity will cripple small businesses, and large businesses will also suffer. Those who may need but do not qualify for an exemption could die. They are recommending that people use camping stoves and outdoor charcoal grills to cook, but that is not an option for many. The elderly are especially vulnerable without power. Those without power banks will be unable to charge their phones and will be isolated from the world. Kids will be unable to attend school. They are asking people to power their EVs, but you can only go so far on one charge. It will come as no surprise if they shut off electricity for the poorest areas first.

Perhaps we could have funded this project instead of sending over $120 billion to Ukraine. California is still pushing to end the use of fossil fuels but look at the situation they are in currently.

Massive Increases in U.S Natural Gas Exports are Driving Up U.S. Energy Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022

It is good to see at least one energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, speaking commonsense.  In an article by Clark Williams-Derry for Barron Magazine [SEE HERE], the author accurately outlines how significant U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports are driving up prices for American consumers.

The author accurately refutes the notion that exports do not drive-up domestic prices, by walking through the example of how natural gas prices dropped for U.S. consumers when the liquefied natural gas plant in Quintana, Texas [Freeport LNG] was temporarily shut down, blocking a portion of the export capacity.  However, that facility is about to come back on-line and with increased exports from other facilities domestic U.S. prices have already doubled.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Association (IEA), U.S. storage of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 12% below the five-year average (LINK).  Additionally, the IEA is expecting the U.S. to export 11.7 billion cubic feet of LNG per day during the fourth quarter of 2022 — up 17% from the third quarter. The destination of that export is Europe.

Consider that 43% of U.S. households use LNG for home heating, and power suppliers use LNG to create electricity.  With the massive 2022 exports of LNG to Europe (+17% in fourth quarter alone), that means lower domestic supplies and increased prices here in the United States for electricity and home heating.  We are seeing and feeling these massive price increases right now.

Barrons – […]  If you need more evidence of the impact of natural gas exports on prices, just compare supply and demand fundamentals for the year leading up to February 2020 (the last pre-pandemic month) versus the year leading up to this May (the most recent month with full federal data). Annualized production rose over the period, while domestic consumption remained roughly flat. Yet LNG exports almost doubled—a surge that tightened U.S. gas markets and doubled the price that U.S. consumers pay for the fuel. 

The growth of global demand for U.S. LNG can be tied to many market forces, including the shortfalls in Europe due to Russia’s manipulation of European Union gas markets. Sustained high demand in wealthy Asian nations has contributed to export growth as well. And so has the U.S. gas industry’s dogged determination to ship its wares to the highest bidder, foreign or domestic. 

Russia’s role has been particularly critical in the rise of global LNG demand. As Russia choked off gas shipments to Europe, EU buyers have turned to global LNG markets to make up the shortfall. Global LNG prices rose in response, and U.S. LNG companies ramped up output, shipping more cargoes to Europe. But Russia responded by further clamping down on gas supplies to the EU—a vicious circle that has hurt Europe’s economy even more severely than it has harmed America’s.

There’s little sign that U.S. gas prices will ease in the coming years. Freeport’s demand will be back online soon enough, and there are three other massive LNG export projects under construction, with more than a dozen of others waiting for financing.

[…] Curiously, federal regulators have consistently found that the gas export projects are in the public interest—meaning they were in the economic interest of LNG companies and gas drillers. But now, exports are creating sky-high costs for U.S. consumers, and drillers are reluctant to boost gas output lest prices fall back to earth. So, it’s high time to consider whether soaring U.S. LNG exports are actually in America’s interest—or if, instead, runaway LNG exports are fueling energy inflation and undermining the nation’s economic competitiveness. (read more)

Not only are U.S. taxpayers directly paying for the majority of costs in Ukraine, but we are also subsidizing the European Union by exporting LNG and driving up the price for energy here at home.

We the taxpayers are directly paying Ukraine, and indirectly paying Europe to maintain gas sanctions against Russia.  As a result, we the taxpayers are also paying higher prices here at home.  This is the reality of the current exfiltration of wealth as created by the Biden administration.

FUBAR