Mike Benz: The Four-Letter Agencies Are Killing The Ability To Operate An Independent Website


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Aug 03, 2024 at 11:00 am EST

Col. Derek Harvey: No One Was Held Accountable


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Aug 03, 2024 at 11:00 am EST

Can Money Buy the Presidency?


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

Hillary_Clinton_has_raised_40_times_more_money_than_Donald_Trump_Vox

QUESTION: Do you think Trump can win when Kamala raises far more money?

FE

Podesta Hillary Refuses to Concede

ANSWER: The 2016 election proves that money will not buy the presidency anymore but will buy true love. Hillary raised far more money than Trump and still lost. That was why Hillary would not even address her audience – Podesta had to do that.

Hillary it was my turn
Socrates Beat the Polls
Trump v Hillary
Trump Wins

Harrington: DOJ, FBI, And USSS Can’t Be Anywhere Near Investigation Into Assassination Attempt


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Aug 02, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Hammer: Josh Shapiro Is The Pick That Will Lead To Mass Chaos At DNC


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Aug 02, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Posobiec: Ellen Greenberg A Skeleton In The Closet Of Harris Favorite VP Pick Josh Shapiro


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Aug 02, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Wold: Peter Strzok Million Dollar Settlement With DOJ Actually A Payoff


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Aug 02, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

New York Commercial Real Estate Plunges 97.5% at Great Depression Levels


Posted originally on Aug 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

23_Floor_Manhattan_Office_Building_Just_Sold_at_a_97.5 Discount

COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I had to write to say thank you so much for everything you do. When Trump was indicted, you said sell and get out of New York. Your advice has always been discussed with our board, and the decision was made to sell in light of your ECM also turning in 2024. We managed to sell our commercial real estate in New York City, and based on the auction that just took place, you saved our company and every employee in our company. With 135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan that was originally sold for $332 million in 2006 and now sold at auction for $8.5 million, reality has struck with a vengeance. Your forecast for New York City will be forever remembered among our ranks. We owe you more than a dinner and a drink.

Thank you ever so much, SC

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi
Real Estate

COMMENT #2: Yesterday, the New York Times ran a sobering real-estate story headlined, “This 23-Floor Manhattan Office Building Just Sold at a 97.5% Discount.” Apparently, inflation hit everything else but missed big-city commercial real estate. The building in the story, which used to headquarter Sports Illustrated, last sold in 2006 —admittedly at peak market— for $332 million dollars. On Wednesday, it sold at auction for only $8 million, a stunning 98% discount.MSREPLY:  On Sepetember 2nd, 2023, we warned on the private blog that the “real estate market, 2023 should produce the highest annual closing.” With the ECM turning down into 2028 and war on the horizon, what New York has done to Trump is a warning to get the hell out of New York. This decision was as bad as putting sanctions on Russia, which became a warning to everyone else: if you do not do as the American Neocons command, they will remove you from the SWIFT system.This event in New York City will send tremors throughout the nation. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) peaked on our models in 2020 in REAL TERMS with COVID. Ever since the need for office space has taken a nosedive, as I have said, if I were Trump, I would have handed them an office building for the fine and then bought it back at 10% when they auctioned it off. With its political vendetta against Trump, New York has only made New York City the leader in the decline, and we have NOT seen the bottom yet. This will send panic among the smart people, and this will cause further contagion to spread to residential property, which has been propped up because of jobs in New York City, which we still show are in crash mode into 2028/2029.

Banks’ CRE loan books’ primary concern is exposure to the office and retail sectors. Based on our sources, we would estimate that banks’ CRE lending financed 46% of office and retail loans which most likely comes in between $700-725 billion. Added to this concern is the concentration of CRE loans on the balance sheets of regional banks. It appears that CRE loans on the books of regional banks amount to about 65% of non-multifamily CRE loans. After this auction, many banks are going to be deeply concerned about the realistic valuation of CRE properties. The risk is that this will further undermine the belief in bank stability going forward.

Smaller regional banks will most likely pull back from CRE, which will undermine values going forward. Large banks or insurance companies are unlikely candidates to start lending into the CRE sector. The more likely lenders into CRE will probably be private credit investors, but that will also come at higher rates. The total CRE market is valued at over $10 trillion, with the office sector being the largest sector at around 24-25%.

Refinancing Challenges for CMBS

There there is the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market that accounts for 20% of the office and retail loans. That comes in around $300 billion+, of which about $22 billion in office loans maturing here in 2024. Typically, up to 50% of that would not be a problem to roll. However, after this sale at auction, many will have second thoughts. Our sources place about 95% of those loans are only backed by Class B and Class C offices. This auction will weaken the funding potential for the lower-quality buildings, and this will accelerate the risk of strategic default into especially 2026.

When we dig deeper, the 60-day-plus delinquency rate is only about 10%, but it is rising rapidly. This implies that we should expect more stress in the CMBS market between now and 2026. The vacancy rate in major cities nationwide is approaching 20%. In the case of New York City, this particular building had a vacancy rate of about two-thirds. The rents they collected from the remaining tenants were not even enough to cover the ground lease, no less the taxes and upkeep of the building. The losses were catastrophic, especially since they indicted Trump in New York City.

roundy_character_freaking_out_300_clr_22500

On top of all of that, then you have the flight from the Democratic Blue States to the Red Republican States post-COVID. We addressed the Commerical Real Estate on June 8th, 2023. Where vacancy rates in San Francisco were approaching 30%, in Miami they were the lowest nationally at just 15.8%. We wrote back then:

“During the first quarter of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20% nationally for the first time really since the Great Depression. Then there are cities that have embraced WOKE to their detriment and are witnessing the worst. In San Francisco, the vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2023 climbed to 29.4%, up from 27.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Manhattan has a vacancy rate of n the first quarter of 2023 at 22.2% according to Cushman & Wakefield.  Dallas has been absorbing the flight from California so its vacancy rate is 18.7% according to Cushman & Wakefield.  The commercial vacancy rate in Miami, Florida office market has an overall vacancy which has been declining counter-trend to the rest of the nation falling now to 15.8% according to Cushman & Wakefield. In Chicago, Class-A vacancy rate stands at 19.3% while Class-B vacancy jumped to 28.3% according to Cushman & Wakefield.”

–For anyone thinking about leaving major centers like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, it does not matter how low rates might go; there will be no buyers, and you will be stuck where you are until after 2032. You may have already missed the last train.

Protected: The National Security Advisor – Trump Staffing 2025


Posted originally on the CTH on August 2, 2024 | Sundance

The National Security Advisor to the President is another of the key roles within the White House that is critical to defend against the weaponized Intelligence Community.  In a second term as president, we anticipate Donald Trump will again face opposition from both parties in congress and from every created silo operation in the administrative deep state.

Accepting in advance that any appointees to the Executive Branch agencies in charge of the Intelligence System, are not going to be able to change the outcomes from within those agencies, then strategizing how to confront the rogue intelligence state becomes a more honest exercise.

The National Security Advisor is going to have to navigate an intelligence community that is fully weaponized and adverse to the interests of the White House.  Every element of the IC, the “six ways to Sunday” team, will work actively and behind the scenes to undermine the office of the President.  Any attack vectors will be fully exploited, by the IC and nothing should be considered out of bounds.

The leaders of the CIA, FBI, DIA, DHS and NSA will all lie to the President.   That’s what these institutions do now. They are part of the 4th branch of government, and they consider themselves omnipotent due to the structure of the legislative changes and oversight after 9-11.  Notice I left out the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, ODNI, I did that on purpose.

The NatSec Advisor to President Trump is going to have to work through an entirely weaponized fourth branch of government in order to survive it, let alone destroy it.  As a consequence, the Nat Sec Advisor needs to be a person with deep understanding of how the intelligence system inside Washington DC works, as well as carrying a profound distrust for them.

Any person who trusts any product created by the IC should be immediately disqualified from any position in our constitutional government.  Additionally, any person who intentionally maintains the system of pretending (Robert Mueller was honorable etc.), is automatically disqualified.

The National Security Advisor does not need to be confirmed.  The NSA person is unilaterally picked by President Trump and the entire executive branch was just reminded by SCOTUS that POTUS is in charge of everything.  This should be a big arrow in the quiver of the NatSecAdvisor.

The National Security Advisor is also the chair of the National Security Counsel (NSC).  The NSC is the working group in the White House specifically tasked with formulating analysis on events from their skills on specific issues.  The National Security Advisor does the NSC hiring and firing.  Trump needs a lot of firing assistance.

When the IC was weaponized by George W Bush and Barack Obama, the DNI fulcrum point was never used much as part of the process.  The DNI sits at the center of all intelligence information and maintains the pivot on the National Security Radar that now sweeps a full circle.

Prior to the Patriot Act the national security radar swept outward from the border looking at national security threats overseas.  Back and forth, back and forth, the radar swept looking for foreign adversaries who might target the USA.  The Patriot Act put a ball joint on the radar that now conducts surveillance sweeps in a circle, including over all Americans.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was created to be the depository for all intelligence products.   Intelligence assembled on foreign threats (CIA) can be reviewed by domestic handlers (FBI and DHS).   When Bush created the office and later when Obama weaponized the office, they installed people who would just go along with whatever the FBI side and CIA side told them to do.  The ODNI was created to be the stupid pivot man.

However, looking at the system in totality, it is my belief that if a really smart person was in the ODNI position, they could control a great deal and even impede the activity happening both domestically (FBI/DOJ) and abroad (DoS/CIA).   I believe the DNI can crush the system, if the person really looked carefully at their power in the pivot location.

The DNI can control information.  The DNI can starve the beast.

Just like the State Dept and CIA work hand in glove to make a mess of the world, so too can the Nat Sec Advisor and DNI work together to deconstruct the domestic intelligence system.  In this process, information is the key.  The DNI can control the information, making it harder for the IC Silos to lie to the National Security Advisor.

[NOTE: control of information is also why the Director of the National Security Agency is also important.  The Director of the NSA is essentially the librarian for all data.  The librarian can control who enters the library if the right people in the Executive Branch (POTUS, Nat Sec Advisor and ODNI) give the Director of the NSA that power (executive action). More on that later.]

The National Security Advisor (hereafter *NSA) needs to be a person who has a comprehensive understanding of the Silos, and a willingness/desire to take them apart.

The *NSA needs to be exceptionally smart, profoundly insightful, intensely strategic, and with a comprehensive knowledge of the DC system.  The *NSA also needs to be stable from attack by the IC defense system.  The ideal *NSA will have an income from outside government that cannot be impacted by the schemes of the IC. The *NSA also needs to be very stable, grounded, logical and thoughtful.

This set of character traits, in combination with the knowledge needed, disqualifies almost everyone in DC.   Steve Bannon is a chatterbox who doesn’t know when to keep his mouth shut, and he has a massive ego.  Kash Patel is not strategic enough and maintains the pretending game in order to present himself as a man of value.  Peter Navarro is loyal but has some of those key judgement issues that can be exploited by the IC, and he’s not very smart.

Former Nat Sec Advisor Michael Flynn disqualified himself from further consideration by poor judgement.  Don’t forget, Flynn was an agent for a foreign government (Turkey 2016) and never told candidate Trump, thereby setting the Trump administration up for compromise.  Flynn then claims he didn’t see the risk of an FBI interview in his office and never told the White House Counsel of his intent to be interviewed by the FBI.  You cannot claim Flynn is smart and reconcile that with his stupidity.

All of the previous names might be good additions to the National Security Council, but no way should any of those names get close to a position where their failure to deliver can cause damage to the larger goal.

As a result, there is a very small field of candidates, very small, who might be able to pull off the role of National Security Advisor.  At the top of that list is probably Devin Nunes.   I qualify with a “probably” because Nunes has one massive Achilles heel in my opinion.

Devin Nunes believes in the system.  He believes in the FISC and FISA (702).  Nunes believes in large aspects of the surveillance state, and he believes in the roles and responsibilities within government as it pertains to the Intelligence Community.

Nunes believes the system is good, and that its just being operated by bad people. This is where Mr Nunes and I diverge.  However, I am willing to undermine my position and say that perhaps we need a person who believes in government.  Maybe that’s the type of character trait that can be a good benefit.  I don’t know.  Maybe I’m too jaded and just want it all stripped down to nothing.

What I do know, is that Devin Nunes would never intentionally screw stuff up, and he’d never intentionally undermine President Trump.  Nunes is super loyal, and he loves our country.

I don’t know if he would take the job of National Security Advisor (he would probably want CIA director). However, with a strategic partner in the DNI office, Devin Nunes could give us a solid chance.

RESOURCES: 

Understand The Fourth Branch

Understand The Trump Doctrine

Introduction to the 2025 Series

The Emissary – First Position.

[Next up, White House Counsel.  The gatekeeper to the office of the presidency]

Guidelines for Comments


Posted originally on the CTH on August 2, 2024 | Sundance 

“Seek first to understand, then to be understood”

1.) First, please READ THIS ENTIRELY – and the full text of any discussion you wish to participate in.

2.) PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC – do not post something unrelated to the specific matter and content of the thread subject. There is ALWAYS a daily open thread available for any subject you feel should get attention. Never place unrelated, “O/T”, or “Off Topic” comments on a thread unrelated to the topic. It is not ok to say: “sorry, O/T but”… or any iteration therein, it is quite rude.

The Treehouse operates on the ‘old school’ standards and practices of civil discourse amid the original blogging community, long before social media took over.

3.) PLEASE NARROW YOUR THOUGHTS – Quality beats quantity. Please construct your comments to target specific areas and not broad generalizations about the discussion topic at hand. If you have four or five disconnected points, break them up into individual comments; that allows people to respond to the specifics.

4.) PLEASE AVOID GENERALIZATIONS – Do NOT speak in riddles. Words like “he, she, they, it, them” should rarely be used. Spell out “who” using the name, spell out who “they” are at the beginning of every sentence in your paragraph; so that there is clarity as to who you are talking about. Please avoid using acronyms.

5.) BLOCK PARAGRAPHS – Do not post huge blocks of text. Think of the reader, and modify your presentation for understanding, not for exclaiming. Do not write to yourself, you are writing to others, so please structure your thoughts so other people can grasp and enjoy. NEVER post massive blocks of text without paragraph breaks.

Do not post huge blocks of text

6.) PARAGRAPHS – Should NEVER be longer than two or three sentences taking up three to five standard lines of text. Again, you are writing to be understood, the emphasis should be on the reader comprehending what you are sharing.

Do not post huge blocks of text

7.) SPELLING AND PUNCTUATION – This is not school, and we do not demerit for poor spelling, nor do we allow anyone to call others out for the same. However, if your construct is too poorly written the context is lost and important details can be missed. Read the comment carefully before you send it. Proofread it again. Does it make sense?

8.) TIME – Everyone ‘s time is valuable. Many of our discussion threads are 500 to 1,000+ comments long. We try to limit the comments to 500 and then post another related thread, but with some research threads it is challenging because we do not want to break a continuity.

9) CITATIONS – There’s a big difference between an opinion and an assertion of fact.  Obviously, most comments are providing opinions, the discussion expands when we hear them.  However, if you are making an assertion of fact, you must attach a citation for review. If you do not have a citation – don’t post; this avoids spreading rumors, gossip and unfounded claims. Also related, do not post random links without an explanation of the reason, purpose and content that is behind the link.

10.) THOUSANDS ARE WATCHING – For every person writing a comment, there are easily hundreds of thousands of reading lurkers on every discussion thread.  Do not disparage our conversation with vulgarity, profanity, or any expressions of any “ism”.

In the modern era of the internet, there are many voices who try to shut down conversation and information sharing.  We put a lot of effort, more than anyone could imagine, into keeping this little corner of the internet open for you to research, share and discuss some pretty important stuff.  Please do not provide ammunition to those who seek information control through deplatforming.

11.) MODERATION / FILTERING THE HATE – Because of our honest approach at seeking facts and truth, and openly discussing various analytical theories along the way, we are bombarded by those with ulterior motives which include:

  • Intentional efforts to distract.
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  • Intentional expressions of rabid hate, vulgarity, and threats.
  • Trolling and professional obfuscation.
  • Concern Trolling as a tool of distraction and derailing conversation.
  • Psy-ops and intentional efforts to diminish fact-finding.

We do our earnest best to stop the agenda-horde at the moderation gates, however sometimes they get through.

If you see something untoward say something. When a new comment surfaces that we view is likely presented only to argue, we watch carefully – but we also are not perfect. You can help. There is a flag feature that helps identify trouble.  Also, feel free to alert us via email.

12.) MANNERS MATTER – Simple kindnesses and courtesy should always be present in tone and content. When writing, ask yourself before you hit send: does this add value?

13.) NO PERSONAL ATTACKS – Ever. The fastest way to lose commenting privileges is to ridicule, bully or personally attack another person’s opinion or comment. Unfortunately, people, often good people, let their passion interfere with good manners and personal judgement. If you cannot be polite or respectful, pause – and – do not comment.

14.) TONE and HONESTY – Often the information and research CTH provides are about challenges we face and/or events that are hidden from larger review. It can be frustrating to see the scale of corruption; however, only you control how that information is absorbed by you. The truth doesn’t care about our feelings. Try to keep an even keel and optimistic disposition.

15.) DEVICES – It is a reality that many people use their phones to browse information and/or comment. Cellular phones and iPads are okay for reading, but also present challenges in commenting. Please make every effort to avoid the run-on issue of text from these devices. Put extra spaces in your paragraphs. Also remember your service provider (ISP) may have filters to limit the websites they permit you to view. It’s not CTH, nine out of ten issues are related to your service provider.

This control issue is worse in 2024 for obvious reasons.

SUMMARY: The Tree House community has historically accomplished a lot. Through exhaustive research and analysis our accuracy and reputation for truthful fact-finding, regardless of discomfort, is well regarded. Retain that distinction of intellectual armament.

We are The Conservative Tree House, not because of any political affiliation, but rather because the word “conservative” expresses our outlook. We would rather be deep, than wide; we would rather be honest, than popular; we avoid semantics in favor of accurately presenting both intention and meaning.

We are bold in our willingness to go into conversational places where others do not, and we are brave enough to stand firm for principles which are time tested.

We would rather advertise our outlook, so the viewer can understand our perspective on a particular subject, than deceptively claim we are something else and deliver an inherently biased view. The entire spectrum of the MSM is based on the latter.

Every reader knows where we stand on almost any issue, and our opinions -while they may be unpopular- are based on solid research and analytical insight into the subject matter at hand. This is why our predictive analysis is routinely more accurate than others.

Lastly, and most importantly, this Treehouse is a conversation.  A place to connect and realize you are not alone.  There really are more intellectually honest, kind and pragmatic problem solvers, than people who choose to be angry and comfortable with perpetual conflict.

Hopefully, a visit to this little corner of the internet is just like sitting on a porch with friends.  And because the “conversation” is the reason we are here, this means YOU are important; do not diminish yourself.

[Remember] …” However, each of us got here, it’s probably a fact that we have the turmoil of those storms in common, perhaps some unease that we could share and always, we also find fresh ground to cover from day to day.

We’re developing valuable relationships as we trust one another in our community in the woods. The chatting in the branches encourages, strengthens and equips for some serious walking.

We think the Treehouse is a good intellectual armory for those who doing long distance walking for the sake of our nation. We hope you’ll think so, too. Find yourself a good branch….or just pull up a rock to the campfire”.

Wolverines faithfully patrol the perimeter.

Humor is also a good way to avoid fear. A laugh in a foxhole is priceless.

Be kind and please be respectful… Manners really do matter… after all, this is a fellowship.

Love to all,