IMF: “U.S. Removing Tariffs on China Will Improve Global Economy”…


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a statement out today that underlines why so many global forces are against President Trump: “there are trillions at stake”.

(Reuters) – An interim U.S.-China trade deal that rolls back some tariffs has the potential to improve the International Monetary Fund’s baseline economic forecasts, which show the two countries’ trade war slowing global growth significantly this year, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. (read more)

The baseline for the position of the IMF is the open secret amid global economic that few will ever discuss openly.  The U.S. economy generates approximately $21 trillion in total activity; roughly 20 percent of total global economic activity.

When the U.S. maintains a $500 billion per year trade deficit with China, essentially we are sending China trade dollars Beijing then uses to purchase industrial products from the EU an other nations.  Any reduction in the U.S-China deficit means China has less dollars to distribute; as an outcome the global economies have access to less U.S. wealth.

The process to retain U.S. dollars inside our own economy, President Trump’s “America First” economic agenda, is the heart of what most call the global economic slowdown.  As a result the position of the IMF is better when the U.S. maintains a deficit, and the position of the IMF is weakened by any process that stops that exfiltration of wealth.

This is why so many countries are pouring money into Washington DC, and into any political activity within the United States, with the intention to derail President Trump’s policy.   By using U.S. proxies, essentially lobbyists, the multinationals are trying to stop President Trump.  There are trillions at stake.

An example would be China -and others- funding the Brookings institute.  The Brookings Institute then funds the activity of the Lawfare group.  Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler hiring Lawfare members as contractors for their impeachment effort then boils down to China subsidizing the impeachment process.  This is one example; however, there are many more.

Stopping or stalling ratification of the USMCA is another example.  The USMCA supports more U.S. wealth and weakens U.S. investment in China. It’s all connected.

Simultaneously, from coast to coast those same multinational interests are funneling massive amounts of cash into any election that is part of the domestic “resistance”.

The U.S. Wall Street multinationals, globalists and multinational banks all hold a vested financial interest in stopping President Trump.   The alignment of these interests is what gives rise to candidates like Michael Bloomberg.  It is all connected.

Hundreds of millions from multinational corporations are pouring into the coffers of K-Street lobbyists who are in turn purchasing politicians to maintain the adverse position against President Trump.  [Lobbyist Spending Here]

Once you see the strings on the marionettes you can never go back to the time when you did not see them….

So far, in 2019 (three quarters)SOURCE LINK

U.S. Chamber of Commerce = U.S. Multinationals on Wall Street.  Tom Donohue.

Open Society Policy Center = George Soros.

Amazon = Jeff Bezos, Washington Post, CIA.

Business Roundtable = U.S. Multinationals on Wall Street.

Northrop Grumman = Syria war policy influence.

Boeing Co = Where did DOJ-NSD FISA Lawyer, Tash Guahar, go to work?  {Go Deep}

…”there are trillions at stake”… “it’s all connected”…

Jim Jordan Joins House Intelligence Committee – Interim Replacement for Rep. Rick Crawford…


House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has announced the move of Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) to the HPSCI for impeachment proceedings.  Jordan will replace Rick Crawford for open committee hearings during the House Intelligence push toward impeachment.

Jim Jordan is an articulate and eloquent politician who is very quick thinking on his feet during hearings.  The democrats constructing the fraudulent impeachment proceedings do not like Jordan; and this move comes as political network operatives used Fusion-GPS to dispatch a media hit against Jordan in an attempt to block his security clearance.

President Trump Impromptu Remarks Departing White House – Video….


Chopper pressers are the best pressers. Early this morning President Trump stopped to answer questions from the assembled press pool as he departed the White House for Atlanta, Georgia. High Energy. [Video Below, Transcript Will Follow]

Is Pending IG Report on FISA Abuse Being Held-Up To Facilitate NSA Bulk Data Re-authorization That Expires December 15th?…


With impeachment headlines absorbing most attention, there is a quiet background story happening in DC where re-authorization of the USA Freedom Act is needed prior to expiration on December 15th. Techno Fog points out the bulk NSA data collection and FISA(702) surveillance programs are part of this reauthorization.

Just yesterday, November 6th, the Senate Judiciary Committee held hearings on the reauthorization.  “Senators expressed their displeasure Wednesday with the Trump administration’s inability to answer questions about the National Security Agency’s collection of data records” (link). Which begs the question:

Is the current Inspector General report on FISA abuse being delayed due to the need for congress to reauthorize the very same programs the IG is about to criticize?

For context to this question, and considering the potential for some surprising revelations within the IG report on FISA, it is worth noting the Office of the Director of National Intelligence held back the the findings of FISA Judge James Boasberg that strongly criticized the FISA-702 process for a year.

The Judge Boasberg report was written in September of 2018 but not released (redacted) until last month.

There is a serious problem here…

FISA Court judges Rosemary Collyer (declassified 2017) and James Boasberg (declassified 2019) both identified issues with the NSA database being exploited for unauthorized reasons. We have a large amount of supplemental research to see through most of Collyer’s report and we are now starting the same process for Boasberg. However, an alarming possibility makes it important to outline a rough draft of what appears present.

Initially when Collyer’s report was declassified in April 2017 we were able to start assembling additional circumstantial and direct evidence. Two years of releases allowed us to see a more detailed picture.

Additional documents, direct testimony from NSA Director Mike Rogers, and later connected material from court filings, classified releases and ODNI statements made the understanding much clearer. What became visible was a process of using the NSA database for political surveillance. [SEE HERE]

With the Boasberg report we do not yet have enough supportive material to identify specific purposes. However, directly from the report itself there is a lot of information that shows a continuum of database activity that did not stop after Collyer’s warnings, and the NSA promises. It seems, the political exploitation continues; and with that in mind some recent events are much more troubling.

Boasberg notes the “about” query option that NSA Director Mike Rogers halted, technically didn’t stop. Instead operators used the “to and from” option almost identically as the “about” queries for downstream data review and extraction. The FISA Appellate Court appointed amici curiae to review Boasberg’s opinion and reconcile counter claims by the FBI. Boasberg was never satisfied despite the FISC-R amicus assurances. His opinion reflects valid judicial cynicism within his reluctant re-authorization.

One of the weird aspects to both Collyer and Boasberg is that both FISC judges did not ever seek to ask the “why” question: why are all these unauthorized database searches taking place? Instead, both judges focus on process issues and technical procedural questions, seemingly from a position that all unauthorized searches were done without malicious intent.

Accepting that neither judge had the purpose of benefit to overlay any other information upon their FISA review, their lack of curiosity is not necessarily a flaw but rather a feature of a very compartmentalized problem.

Boasberg and Collyer are only looking at one set of data-points all centered around FISA(702) search queries. Additionally, the scale of overall annual database searches outlined by Boasberg extends well over three million queries by the FBI and thousands of anonymous users; and the oversight only covers a sub-set of around ten percent.

As a result of the number of users with database access; and as Boasberg notes in his declassified opinion there is no consistent application of audit-trails or audit-logs; and worse yet, users don’t have to explain “why”, so there’s no FISC digging into “why”; the process is a bureaucratic FUBAR from a compliance standpoint; perhaps that’s by design.

All of that said, and accepting the FISC review is not engaged in the ‘why’, here’s the part where seemingly disparate dots start to connect and things are concerning.

REMINDER from the Mueller Report:

My strong hunch is that behind this process we would find the reason why the ‘Steele Dossier” was so relevant to Mueller. You see, investigating the dossier made the 2017 Mueller investigation an extension of a 2016 counterintelligence investigation and not a criminal investigation (later, those were spun off).

By maintaining the counterintelligence process for Mueller, the FBI was able to continue exploiting the NSA database as a FISA(702) tool for their investigation. The foreign actors played a key role in this process. So long as the Mueller investigation was targeting foreign actors they could collect downstream evidence on the “702” (American persons) returns.

In essence, the “small group” could stretch the NSA database rules to conduct electronic warrantless searches and massive electronic surveillance on targets direct (“to/from”) and indirect (downstream).

The violations that Boasberg is identifying (March 2017 through March 2018) must also include FISA database searches conducted by Mueller’s FBI team. It is all within the same system of electronic surveillance. The pattern, frequency and specifics of the Boasberg report are identical to the 2017 Rosemary Collyer report. Same violations. Same processes.

Against what we see more visible every day; and thinking about how corrupt we already know the Mueller investigation to be; now consider that without going to federal courts to gain legal authority, warrants, taps etc…. using their database access Mueller’s team could continue to exploit the FISA(702) process.

They could gather material for their criminal cases through the NSA database and then transfer those results to their spun off prosecutions.

That’s why the Steele Dossier would be so important. The Dossier formed the basis to continue making the Mueller investigation a counterintelligence operation, Title-I authority. Without the Dossier creating the foreign construct, Mueller’s team would have had to follow Title-III.

There is a better than strong possibility the Mueller team monitored all of their targets, extracted the evidence they needed, transferred it to prosecutors and proceeded to construct cases. They didn’t need too much actual investigation because: (a) they knew the Russian-collusion/conspiracy was false; and (2) they could just access the NSA database and pull all the material they needed.

My hunch is all of this exploitation is why ODNI Dan Coats sat on this Boasberg ruling for a year. Boasberg presented this opinion in October 2018, it wasn’t released until October 2019. That could also be a motive why Dan Coats left right before Boasberg’s opinion was released. Perhaps IC interests did not want anyone putting 2+2 together if this judicial review was released during the ongoing Mueller probe.

Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein authorized Mueller to investigate the Steele Dossier in the second scope memo (August 2017). If these suspicions are accurate, the reason Mueller wanted the dossier included would be to maintain Mueller’s investigation as a counterintelligence operation. [An extension of Crossfire Hurricane] As a result, all previous FBI exploits using FISA(702) database searches would be authorized.

To get the Dossier moved from “political opposition research” into valid “investigative evidence” the FBI needed to find a way to get it into the investigation…. Hence, Carter Page and the FISA warrant became the unwitting target and vehicle to carry it.

That explanation also reconciles why Rosenstein signed-off on the 3rd renewal of the Carter Page FISA. Rosenstein authorized a counterintelligence operation (2nd scope) and simultaneously re-authorized the cover story, the Carter Page FISA renewal.

The ramifications here are actually bigger than the original FISA database abuse. It means the Mueller group had secret ongoing background surveillance on all of their targets; and they did not need court authority (Title-III warrants) to get evidence. Maybe, just maybe, this is part of the reason why John Durham has expanded the time-frame for his review.

Now, bear with me…. Again, just to be prudent, we don’t have the supportive material yet to see through the Boasberg ruling, so there is some conjecture here. However, if we stand back and think about the bigger picture described; and we also think about current headlines continuing to surface; a whole bunch of sketchy new things start to reconcile.

Example: Listen to the video here for a minute as Chris Ferrell explains how people were being monitored by a State Department “war room”.

TrumpSoldier@DaveNYviii

Seb Gorka – Marie Yovanovitch Ran Anti Trump Pro Biden “War Room”
Disgraced Pro Biden/Obama Ambassador Yovanavitch directed elements within the State Dept to conduct a monitoring mission that targeted U.S. Citizens. @JudicialWatch pursuing documents via FOIA

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Remember all of the State Department “unmaskings” that were taking place? Hundreds of unmaskings assigned to U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power, and yet no-one could identify who was doing them?

One of the significant changes between the Collyer report (covering 2016) and the Boasberg report (covering 2017) was an institutional inability to track who was doing the actual database searches. Some internal process was modified to create IC anonymity.

Well, against the backdrop of Ambassador Yovanovitch in 2017 and 2018 “monitoring” American persons in/around her Ukraine interests; and considering all of these database search queries identified by Boasberg in 2017 and 2018 “incidentally” captured Americans; perhaps this explains how the Yovanovitch “monitoring” was taking place.

Burisma Leadership Meeting With Ambassador Yovanovitch in October 2018 – Link

We know what the FBI and “contractors” were doing in 2016; and given how invested the intelligence community is within the current stop-trump operations (writ large); and given the political stakes for the intelligence community, well, would there be a reason they would just stop electronic surveillance in January 2017 when President Trump was inaugurated?

I suspect this NSA database is being continually data-mined by ongoing institutional operatives and contractors who are working against the Trump administration. I suspect the surveillance of their political opposition is ongoing….

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Jeff Sessions Confirms Senate Bid During Tucker Carlson Interview…


Jeff Sessions made it official tonight during an interview with Tucker Carlson.  The former U.S. Attorney General is running for a senate seat from Alabama.  WATCH:

Impeachment in The Courts – HJC vs DOJ Appellate Arguments Scheduled for November 12th…


There is an important granular aspect to the validity of the House impeachment process that few are paying attention to.  If the HJC loses this case in the DC Appellate Court, it means there is no constitutional foundation recognized to the “impeachment inquiry.”

Without the constitutional recognition of the judicial branch then: (a) Pelosi/Lawfare have to restart the process with a genuine House vote; or (b) the ongoing impeachment process will have no recognized constitutional standing; and (c) the Senate could ignore any House impeachment vote, cast without recognized constitutional standing.

BACKSTORY: On October 25th DC Judge Beryl Howell granted the House Judiciary Committee (HJC) request for legal authority to receive 6e grand jury material underlying the Mueller report.

Additionally, and most importantly, within the Howell decision she officially recognized the HJC effort was predicated on a constitutional impeachment process.  In essence Howell’s opinion granted the HJC with “judicial enforcement authority.”

The DOJ moved to appeal the decision and requested a “stay” pending appeal.  Judge Howell rejected the DOJ “stay” motion.

The DOJ then appealed to the DC Court of Appeals.  A panel of three judges issued an “administrative stay”, blocking enforcement of the Howell ruling while the appeal was reviewed.  The DC Appellate Court has now scheduled the arguments within the appeal.

Right now; and considering the House voted on a ‘resolution’ to support Nancy Pelosi’s unilaterally decreed “impeachment inquiry”; and due to the lack of structural specifics within the constitution surrounding the impeachment process; I would put the odds at 50/50 the House Judiciary Committee could win this case.

It is critical that AG Bill Barr sends his best constitutional lawyers to defend the interests of the executive branch in this appeal.  The DOJ has a solid constitutional argument to make; and if they end up losing the decision the verbal arguments will be a key factor in whether the Supreme Court would take up the issue (after en banc appeal exhausted).

The HJC objective is simple.  They seek judicial enforcement authority for their subpoenas so their targets cannot legally refuse to give testimony; and by extension the constitutional premise of the House process is affirmed.

The premise for both fronts: (1) document subpoena 6e material, and (2) testimony from White House Counsel Don McGahn, is predicated on penetrating a constitutional firewall that exists within the separation of powers.

Under existing SCOTUS precedent, the White House can be compelled to deliver Executive Branch documents and testimony so long as an official legislative branch impeachment process is underway.

Judge Beryl Howell was the first person in the judicial branch to recognize and accept the HJC position that such an official impeachment process was ongoing.  At the heart of this appeal is that recognition.

If the DOJ can successfully argue the House has not followed the traditional and constitutional process that authorizes impeachment investigation; and allows the HJC to penetrate the separation of power firewall; it will be a major blow to the Lawfare scheme.

A ruling in favor of the DOJ would invalidate the narrative of the House.

A ruling in favor of the DOJ would also allow the Senate to dismiss any results from Schiff and Nadler’s investigation, because their process would not be predicated on constitutional provisions for impeachment.

In short, this is a pretty important ruling.

President Trump Presents Presidential Citizens Medal – 6:00pm ET Livestream…


After meeting with victims of communism earlier today in the White House, at 6:00pm ET President Trump will participate in a posthumous presentation ceremony for the Presidential Citizens medal.

President Trump will be presenting the Presidential Citizens Medal posthumously to veteran Rick Rescorla. Rescorla, who was head of security at Morgan Stanley, is credited with saving thousands of lives when he implemented emergency evacuation procedures during the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center.

UPDATE: Video Added

WH Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link

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Chinese Commerce Ministry Requires Phased Tariff Roll-back to Advance any Trade Deal….


There is a lot of banter amid the punditry class of trade and finance watchers surrounding a statement from Chinese Commerce spokesman Gao Feng claiming that U.S. and China negotiators were discussing a ‘phased’ roll-back of U.S. tariffs as part of a trade deal. However, a note of very strong caution should be applied.

On its face the Beijing-central claim is essentially an accurate portrayal of a dynamic long discussed.  The tariffs were initially imposed to reset the outlook of China.  In any negotiation with China a concession of current status is a non-starter.  By natural disposition Beijing refuses to cede already won ground. This is their historic approach.

Therefore when engaging in any negotiations with China it is necessary to reset the baseline.  China has to naturally feel losses; the economic landscape must be changed around them without their participation; in order for for them to consider negotiation.

The punishing U.S. tariffs accomplished this objective; the Beijing baseline status has been changed.  The bamboo forest is significantly less than it was two years ago, and now China wants to recapture lost position. Their current status indicates exactly that dynamic.

Beijing is proposing acceptance of U.S. demands, but only if that acceptance also delivers a removal of the tariffs that created their diminished status.

USTR Lighthizer isn’t stupid, he’s not going to give back two-years of hard won position.

While they hate it, Beijing internally also understands the U.S. position, this is why they consider Trump such a formidable adversary.

So the latest position from Beijing is to say “a phased reduction in tariffs”, in exchange for a “phased acceptance” of terms.  From the Chinese position, they view this as their version of how they project the Western mindset of win-win into the negotiations.

None of the principals can say this directly; to make such an admission would be akin to losing face amid a history of thousands of years of specific Chinese strategy.  So they send out spokespersons to promote such a proposal.

Anyone who has an understanding of the Chinese outlook should take all of the media reporting on this with a grain-of-salt.  Beijing uses spokespersons as panda masks, and Team Trump know the distance between the Chinese principal and a Chinese spokesperson is part of their strategy.  The unspoken space between words is more important than the words themselves.  Inside this space is where cunning exists.

Regardless of the proposal, if it doesn’t come directly from a principal it doesn’t exist…. it is a false promise, or more panda mask.

This is what happened when the May 2019 talks collapsed.

Special trade envoy of Chairman Xi, Vice-Premier Liu He, quickly turned from a principal to a panda mask as soon as Beijing weighed in -and rebuked- Liu He’s negotiated terms.

Vice-Premier Liu He was stripped of his “special envoy” designation; and Beijing used the distance they just created with He as the justification for dismissing the May ’19 terms of agreement.  That example was very typically Chinese.

The point is, Beijing does not want to accept any new terms that diminishes their prior one-sided benefit.  China is communist, they don’t have a direct constituent group they are accountable to…. they are willing to incur suffering so long as they don’t lose position.

Losing less is not considered a position of benefit.  China cannot even contemplate such a position; it just isn’t done.  So any and all reporting on the discussions should be viewed through the prism that any deal is almost impossible to assemble unless, somehow, Beijing can view a deal as a win.   That is a deal President Trump is not going to accept.

(Via Reuters) […] The interim trade pact is widely expected to include a U.S. pledge to scrap tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15 on about $156 billion worth of Chinese imports, including cell phones, laptop computers and toys.

Tariff cancellation was an important condition for any agreement, Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said, adding that both must simultaneously cancel some tariffs on each other’s goods to reach the phase one pact.

“The trade war started with tariffs, and should end with the cancellation of tariffs,” Gao told a regular news briefing.

[…]  “There is no specific agreement for a phased rollback of the tariffs,” said Michael Pillsbury, an outside adviser to Trump. “The American side has been ambiguous when and which tariffs will be lifted. The Chinese have some wishful thinking and are trying to soothe their domestic hardliners that the tariffs will someday come off.”

Trump last month outlined the first phase of a deal to end the trade war with China and suspended a threatened tariff hike, but officials on both sides said then that much work needed to be done before the pact would be finalized.  (more)

TheLastRefuge@TheLastRefuge2

China trying to gain sway for ongoing U.S. trade discussions,…. Beijing obviously promoting bust of fentanyl production. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1192517070967181313 

Reuters

@Reuters

What started with a tip-off to Homeland Security in 2017 ultimately led to a Chinese court sentencing nine people on charges of smuggling the highly-addictive opioid fentanyl https://reut.rs/2JY1714 

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MAGAnomics – Weekly Jobless Claims Drop 8,000 – Main Street Employment Remains Very Strong…


Unemployment claims dropped by 8,000 last week showcasing a very strong job market for all sectors of employment.  The U.S. Dept of Labor Report shows continued strong jobs growth surprising most economic pundits.

(DOL Report – pdf page 4)

(Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with strong labor market conditions and continued job growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended Nov. 2, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would fall to 215,000 in the latest week.  (read more)

Additionally, in a related Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report unit labor costs increased to 3.6% with a 3.3% increase attributed to increased wage costs.  This is a key metric.

The U.S. economy has started the process of re-coupling economic activity to the labor market.  This is going to be a key to watch moving forward. Watch closely…. Within this process the wage and benefit aspect to the production cost will now start to influence the output costs of the finished product, natural inflation.

Aggregate U.S. inflation has been heavily influenced by import prices dropping, a result of EU and Asian internal activity to offset tariffs, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.  In essence we have been importing deflation.  This process has been ongoing for more than two years.  [CTH predicted this outcome back in 2015.]

However, U.S. imports are now slowing…. and U.S. consumers are purchasing more products, finished goods, from within the U.S internal economic system [(manufacturing and production (which includes restaurants)].   As the percentage of total economic growth upticks from internal U.S. activity, and a higher percentage of overall GDP is internal to the U.S. economy, natural wage growth will begin generate inflation.

Do not be surprised to see this current quarter (Q4) when measured in late January 2020, showing the first significant increases in inflation.  Bookmark my prediction of 0.5% added to inflation in this current quarter we are in (Oct-Dec 2019).

Right now year-over-year wages are growing between 3.0 and 3.6%.  Output costs are now (re-coupling phase) starting to increase slightly more than wage growth, 3.3% just reported.   Natural inflation will now start to kick-in, domestic prices reconnected to wages.

Inflation has been running around 1.5% with slight ups and down relating to externaldynamics (EU/China devaluation, subsidies etc.).  The international community has fired their main cannons, they have nothing left to defend against tariffs and policies that bring the production economy back to the U.S.

We should now start to see inflation growth due to internal dynamics.   Watch now as the Main Street engine is re-coupled and we’ll start to see inflation at two percent and more.

This is the beginning, the very beginning, of a return to natural economic cycles.

There are going to be many connected smaller economic elements yet to be settled. However, in the big picture the apex has been reached.  We are in the period of pause, where U.S. multinationals have to make a decision.  Either they remain overseas and face higher overall costs to bring their products to the U.S. market; or they return to an economic system that has now been reset to be competitive and more predictable.

We will watch it unfold together.

Pam Bondi Says She Might Be Joining White House…


Oh noes… Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi appeared on Fox News to discuss the likelihood of her joining the White House team in some capacity.

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A mechanic is changing the car oil; you walk up to him and hand him a pair of snorkeling fins to complete the job; that look on his face is the same as mine.