Apr 6 2025

Reagan Explains Socialism to a Child

Posted originally on Apr 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Jan 16 2025

Can Anything Be a Store of Value?

Posted originally on Jan 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I understand that you dispute that cryptocurrency is a store of wealth because it is outside the central banks. Is this your position? Could you explain?

Respectfully submitted

Josh

ANSWER: Whoever made up this BS is most likely from the Deep State trying to control capital flows and economically imprison everyone. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that is a store of wealth. Looking, Investopedia defines this term:

“What Is a Store Of Value?

A store of value is an asset, commodity, or currency that maintains its value without depreciating. “

It does not matter what money might be. There has been a boom and bust in every economy regardless of what they have used for money. This is an entirely Marxist Utopian idea. Why? Because to be some store of value means it CANNOT FLUCTUATE!!!!! This has stemmed from people who (1) do not understand that there are business cycles and (2) think, like Keynes and Marx, that the government can eliminate the business cycle and smooth out the economy. I had a conversation with Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Paul admitted that the business cycle always won and that the “new economics” (Keynesian Economists) failed back in the 1970s (see his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle).

Arthur Burns, Fed Chairman, came up with the same conclusion when Bretton Woods collapsed: that the business cycle always wins. Everything rises and falls based on supply and demand. Anyone telling you that Bitcoin is a “store of wealth” is either outright lying to you or they are ignorant of what they are talking about. Nothing ever is a store of wealth because everything rises and falls.

This is why the central banks cannot control inflation, no less money supply. I you sell an office building for $1 million to another person in your country, the money supply is not impacted. However, if you are in Britain as back in 1985, when the pound fell to $1,03, Americans were buying up everything like it was on sale at Harrods. The Brits thought the Yanks were crazy buying at the top of the property market and they were wrong for everything boomed thereafter. Why?

If I bought an office building in London at that time, I would have to bring in the cash from America, convert it to pounds, and buy the building. Thus, I increased the domestic money supply with important cash, and the central bank had nothing to do with that. NOTHING is a store of wealth EVER, no matter what it is, because everything will rise based on demand and crash when you can’t give it away.

Roman decline silver content monetary system Armstrong Waterfall effect

This is why empires rise and fall. Nothing has ever remained a flat line in terms of value.

Dec 30 2024

Gold Clause & CBDC

Posted originally on Dec 30, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Regarding CBDC, will they convert all the savings/cash in your bank account, will they convert everything in your brokerage accounts (all stocks etc.) will they go after gold and silver you have in storage (Brinks, for example)?

ANSWER: Everything will be converted to the new CBDC. The money in your bank account is already just an electronic book entry. This is why banks are closing branches everywhere in the USA as well as Europe. They are preparing for CBDCs, which means without physical paper money, bank branches are no longer needed. You can deposit a check on your phone. The only thing left for a branch is safe deposit boxes, and the government assumes you are hiding cash there anyway. So kiss your local branch goodbye. The local bank I used because it was the closest has closed, and it is now a 30-minute ride to the closest one still open.

The monetary system will still function as normal. The exchange will probably be one-for-one. The main purpose of this is to destroy the underground economy to be able to tax everything – even the 16-year-old girl next door you hire to babysit while you go out to dinner and that $100 bill you found in the parking lot that you cheated the government out of their 50% gift tax. We are all looked down upon as scum. They presume we are all guilty and the whole debt crisis is never their fault – it is you – we the people.

This is the natural progression of direct taxation – the complete loss of all liberty. This is why the Founding Fathers prohibited direct taxation. But the socialists seized the government and followed Marx to get the evil rich. It was introduced with the promise that only the rich would have to pay. They lied about that as well, for as soon as the income tax took place, simultaneously in the same bill, there was the payroll tax demanding employers withhold income from their workers.

The federal income tax of 1913 was accompanied by the fact that the law also attempted to withhold the brand-new income tax because the people were never to be trusted. Initial estimates were that the withholding provisions would yield two-thirds of income tax revenue, but in 1916, less than 5% came from withholding. Furthermore, employers’ simple lack of compliance led to a massive groundswell of opposition to the new withholding system.

The people realized that the government lied to get the 16th Amendment passed, and the state politicians voted for it because it allowed them to also allowed them to impose income taxes at the state level. Even cities joined the money grab, imposing city income taxes. Every layer of government now had the right to extort money from the people based on their income, requiring disclosure of their personal lives. You gave your children money, which was circumventing income tax, so they rolled out the gift tax. , which fueled the corruption on a massive scale. The Revenue Act of 1862 included an inheritance tax and gift tax, which applied to transfers of personal assets. In 1864, Congress amended the Revenue Act, added a tax on transfers of real estate, and increased the rates for inheritance taxes. They have always used war to justify raising taxes, but they always remain in place thereafter. The War Revenue Act of 1898 implemented an inheritance tax of .74 % to 15%, which was used to fund the Spanish-American War. This is why the government loves to wage wars.

Dec 30 2024

Who Creates Money?

Posted originally on Dec 30, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

To a large extent, there is still much confusion regarding the creation of MONEY. Some people still think the government actually creates money as if it were in ancient times. When I say MONEY is no longer TANGIBLE, but it is VIRTUAL, many seem to fail to grasp just how much the world has changed. In ancient times, the state minted the coins AFTER 600 BC attempting to certify the weight to facilitate commerce. However, the government quickly learned that there was profit to be made, which is known as the “seigniorage,” referring to the difference between the intrinsic value of the metal and the declared value. In such a world, the state predominantly created money supply, discounting leverage from banking and counterfeiting.

Today that is about as far removed from how the economy functions as the next inhabitable planet. In the example I used that if a foreign investor buys domestic real estate, he is increasing the domestic money supply. The conversion of his local currency to the domestic currency is NOT dictated by some FIXED quantity created by the central bank. It is just electronic. Nobody actually prints anything , and the central bank does NOT even create electronic currency. It is just a book entry. Because the foreign investor is bringing in cash and buys a TANGIBLE object (real estate), the net amount of cash in the domestic supply of money increases the same when the Fed bought US bonds under QE2. Banking also LEVERAGES the economy by creating MONEY. If you have $1,000 on deposit and I borrow $1,000, we both now have accounts reflecting $1,000 each. Again, the state did NOT create that money.

It is once more a book entry. This is how a BANK PANIC will take place. You go to the bank trying to get your $1,000, but the bank actually lent it to me. As long as you do not try to take out that $1,000, everything is fine and dandy. Therefore, MONEY is not TANGIBLE, and it is purely VIRTUAL! The idea that MONEY is supposed to be some TANGIBLE object actually ended in 600 BC once government got involved and began to manufacture a profit from creating money. As long as the economy is free, then you are free to keep your wealth in whatever object you desire, be it gold or real estate. MONEY is NOT a store of value, for it has always fluctuated, rising in purchasing power in recessions (NOW) and declining in booms.

Dec 16 2024

Institutions Can Have Their Entire Portfolio on Socrates

Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

The Global Market Watch (GMW) was created for one of the top 10 banks in the world. It allowed them to look at their entire portfolio without reading a thousand reports. This allowed them to hone in on what might need their attention. As they commented, this is like having 1,000 trading assistants. We really are too busy advertising or engaging in marketing campaigns. You can die from having too much business. As is the case with offices worldwide, someone is always awake. This was designed for large institutions to save time and provide an important tool for investing.

The comments are a work in progress since the model still identifies new patterns. Socrates is proving that all the theories from the nonsense of Random Walks, etc., are just excuses for people incapable of comprehending how the world functions. The GMW records a pattern REGARDLESS of the market and assigns a number you see under the comment. That same pattern shows up in every market because the instrument is irrelevant – it is how human nature interacts with that market.

We can create a GMW for your entire portfolio to give you a fast glance at your portfolio. We are currently working on providing the same tools that I have used so you can ask question and it will respond. We are considering creating a terminal so it will access our systems and provide you with an impressive assistant.

Dec 16 2024

We can Add Any Stock Worldwide to Socrates

Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Mr. Armstrong, you used to provide your reports rebranded to an institution’s name in Tokyo. Would you consider that for other countries?

ANSWER #1: Yes. We would articulate the turning points rather than include the arrays. That would make it too identifiable, tracing back to us. But certainly, we can do that and attack an institution’s name, such as a reputable bank or brokerage house. We can replace the majority of the cost of research. We have a database of virtually every stock in the world.

QUESTION #2: Can I request that a particular stock be added to Socrates?

ANSWER #2: Certainly.

Dec 10 2024

IMF Wants El Salvador to Repeal Bitcoin’s Legal Tender Status

Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

The International Monetary Fund is willing to provide El Salvador with a $1.3 billion loan, but the nation must meet two demands. First, El Salvador must commit to reducing its budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP over the next three years. The second requirement is for El Salvador to begin backing away from bitcoin.

El Salvador declared bitcoin legal tender in 2021. The nation holds a bitcoin Treasury worth over $600 million as of lately with bitcoin’s recent price spike and has been purchasing about 1 btc per day. President Nayib Bukele recently took to social media to declare the success of his bitcoin adaptation, claiming gains of over 127%. Yet, the public has not largely adopted the new currency. In fact, the Central American University conducted a study in January that revealed 88% of citizens have not used bitcoin in transactions over the previous year.

Under the new IMF requirement, El Salvador must prohibit the legal requirement that states businesses must accept bitcoin as payment. Under this premise, bitcoin could not truly be considered legal tender.

As I have said, global organizations will not permit crypto to operate freely outside their control. I must agree with the IMF that Bitcoin’s volatile pricing presents financial instability and exposes government revenue to greater foreign exchange rate risks. Bitcoin is merely a trading vehicle and not a proper currency. However, the IMF also states that it is concerned about anti-money laundering practices. which simply means they are concerned that they cannot tax it.

Taxation goes hand in hand with lowering the budget deficit, as the nation has been steadily increasing tax revenue. Tax revenues reached 17.64% of GDP in 2017, later advancing to 19.75% in 2022. The government has several measures in place for tax evasion and has improved its digital taxpayer registry to see who has underpaid. There is hope that the recent discovery of gold will offset the hunt for taxation, and the president does seem to be a reasonable man. Perhaps El Salvador will not require a loan if it has truly found trillions worth of gold. It appears that Nayib Bukele will not back away from his stance on bitcoin either way.

Nov 12 2024

Why Bitcoin Will NOT Replace the Dollar

Posted originally on Nov 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

People continue to ask if Bitcoin will replace the dollar. They believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin indicates that it will topple the USD as the world’s reserve currency, but that is merely propaganda. You must understand that Bitcoin is simply a trading vehicle, not a currency. I cannot stress that point enough. My opinion has been unpopular, and clients have walked away due to my stance on crypto. That’s fine, as I am not in this for the money. I can only adequately inform my clients of the unbiased truth and hope that those willing to listen will heed the computer’s warnings.

To begin with, there is much speculation about the founder(s) — Satoshi Nakamoto – who created Bitcoin (BTC) on June 3, 2009. The mystery person or group (or government agency) has been MIA since 2011. Yet 1 million Bitcoins remain in their original account, untouched. His wallet is estimated to be worth over $81 billion at the time of this writing, and if this is indeed an individual, he or she is one of the top 15 richest people in the world. They have never moved a fraction of a BTC from their account. So, one wallet contains 5% of all mined bitcoin. Will this person or entity perpetually hold?

They expect us to believe some mysterious Japanese man created the blockchain technology and simply evaded all world governments. They claim Bitcoin is an anti-government vehicle, but it is a bureaucrat’s dream because it allows them to track where funds are coming from and going. In 1996, the US government released a white paper entitled, “How to make a mint: the cryptography of anonymous electronic cash.” Released by the National Security Agency Office of Information Security Research and Technology, this document explains how a government agency could create something like Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. They had been attempting to create one for years and then magically Bitcoin came on the scene.

I encourage anyone interested in crypto to read my article regarding this study. Blockchain was created with surveillance at the top of mind.

Bitcoin’s price is akin to the problem that existed when the bubble burst in 1966 with mutual funds because they were listed back then. The value can change at a volatility rate of 10x that of the dollar, making it a highly dangerous instrument as a store of wealth. It is solely a trading vehicle until they weigh it and the value is changed.

In 1966, investors bid the mutual funds up beyond net asset value, so during the crash, people lost everything when they thought it was a secure investment. The net underlying assets may have dropped 20%, but they paid 20% over the net asset value and then sold at 50% of the net asset value. Many mutual funds crashed 70-90%, whereas the Dow drop was 26.5%. Ever since mutual funds have no longer been allowed to be listed. You go in and out at net asset value. Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.

I have not been bullish on digital currency, as it’s a trading vehicle no different than any other commodity or stock. Sure, a profit could be made, and many have had great success. We do include Bitcoin in our models, and those subscribed to Socrates will see that our arrays are picking up on Bitcoin next year.

Bitcoin is a trading vehicle that is no different from wheat or cattle. It is NOT a store of wealth, as it fluctuates like everything else. It rises and falls no different than any other trading instrument. It is not a “store” of value maintaining some constant value to park your money. We need to get realistic here. The concept of Bitcoin replacing the dollar fails to comprehend what makes something the world’s reserve currency. I will write a piece explaining that aspect since it is crucial to understand.

Oct 11 2024

President Trump Delivers Remarks at Detroit Economic Club – 2:00pm EDT Livestream

Posted originally on the CTH on October 10, 2024 | Sundance

Today, President Donald Trump heads back to Michigan for a speech at the Detroit Economic Club. The keynote address is scheduled to start at 2:00pm EDT, with RSBN providing coverage starting around noon. Livestream Links Below:

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED