FEDERAL RESERVE THANKSGIVING!


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The stock market melt-up continues. Oh sure, it may be going down today, but that would indicate another buying opportunity. Buy the dip! That has worked for the past 10 years. Recessions are a thing of the past. Unemployment is low. The economy is doing great! Buy stocks! BUY BUY BUY! The stock market will not go down through 2020. Trump has ordered the Fed to make it so. We should be glad our president has such influence, but it’s more complicated than that.

I support Trump, but he’s wrong about the stock market has an indicator of economic health. The stock market is in a ridiculous bubble. That’s what the Federal Reserve does—it creates bubbles. The valuations of stocks are way out of whack with what the companies earn.

Too many Americans can’t afford to buy such sky-high stocks anyway. Most Americans are in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. For the first time, the 1 percent now has more money than the entire middle class combined. Not by means of capitalism, but by fascism. They’ve rigged the game in their favor. They have hijacked our government to make sure they will get more. Always more. The middle class is in decline. Real wages are not rising, but they’re paying more in terms of taxes and the hidden tax known as inflation. The millennials can’t pay off their college debt, let alone buy a house and start a family. The corrupt, millionaire politicians made sure those with college debt can’t declare bankruptcy. Housing prices are prohibitively expensive. That means rent goes up, too. One third of the millennials are forced to move back in with their parents. Meanwhile, 84 percent of the stock market is owned by the wealthiest top 10 percent of Americans. The 1 percent owns 38 percent of the stock market.

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The ‘too big to fail’ banks have no worries. While most Americans fret about paying bills, the banks get free money from their Federal Reserve, which is there to bail them out to the tune of $150 billion per day if needed. Quantitative easing never ended. The Plunge Protection Team that is the Fed always ensures the market is propped up. It’s a perma-Thanksgiving feast for the central banks. These banker turkeys love to gobble up money. They are stuffed with money. A lot of that money goes into ‘their’ stock market. Martin Armstrong predicted the Dow will hit 40,000 in a few years. Why? Because all that free money has nowhere else to go, so they use it to make the stocks they already own go up even more. The banks aren’t going to give it to us, that’s for sure. We do get stuck with the bill, however. We pay for it via inflation and taxes and the national debt has now exceeded $24 trillion.

The Illuminati won’t spend that money on rebuilding infrastructure such as roads and bridges, but they will use it to buy up utilities and then make sure the electricity gets turned off to make their serfs suffer even more as they usher in their climate change-based ‘globalism.’

Conniving, evil men were allowed to inflict the vile Federal Reserve debt money system upon We The People. Congress unconstitutionally abandoned their mandate to handle our currency. They illegally turned over that power to international bankers. The Illuminati have always been about globalism and control and they’re achieving their goal by controlling our money supply. By this means they buy out everything—the mass media, the politicians, the courts—everything.

It’s time to wake up and END THE FED!

—Ben Garrison

The Solution


QUESTION:

Hi Marty:

Congratulations on a fantastic WEC 2019.

I have reviewed your Solution video. Could the government ease into such a solution in stages? For example, the government could place a moratorium on issuing debt and pay the year’s budget which included a reduction in principle on outstanding bond debt, and meeting current interest expense, by printing actual currency.

Dan

ANSWER: Yes. I believe we would have to do this in three stages. The point of the exercise is that markets trade on ANTICIPATION. Once it is realized that we are actually making a fundamental change, the markets will begin to move to reflect the long-term expectations.

China Moving to Create a Digital Currency


China’s National People’s Congress has passed a new law to create a digital yuan. Back on December 5, 2013, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took its first step in regulating Bitcoin by prohibiting financial institutions from handling Bitcoin transactions. They were using Bitcoin to get money out of China in a modern money laundering scheme. Cryptocurrency exchanges or trading platforms were banned by regulation back in September 2017. They closed 173 platforms by July 2018. As I have warned, governments will NEVER allow Bitcoin to replace a national currency. They have used it for study, but it only takes a pen to kill Bitcoin.

Therefore, cryptocurrencies will not be allowed to compete in China against the government. This will be the same worldwide. Countries will move toward digital currency to enforce laws and taxation.

Trying to Overthrow the Dollar


QUESTION: Marty, you said at the conference the efforts to overthrow the dollar as the reserve currency have failed and it will take the Monetary Crisis Cycle to accomplish that. Now that Lagarde is in the ECB, will she aid that overthrow to be replaced by the IMF’s SDR?

It was a fantastic conference this year.

FG

ANSWER: The US has abused the role of the dollar in world commerce by imposing sanctions on places like Iran. These sanctions are supported by enforcement using the dollar. The US has weaponized the dollar in this respect. About 90% of international debt is denominated in dollars. Foreign countries issue their debt in dollars to eliminate FOREX risk in order to sell it globally. Both Putin and Xi want to find an alternative to the dollar. It has been the role of the dollar that drives Putin to dethrone the dollar.

There is NO ALTERNATIVE to the dollar — PERIOD!!!!! The stupid Negative Interest Rates on the euro undermined the euro as a possible reserve currency. It has been dumped internationally, which nobody wants to talk about. In discussions with major central banks and key international banks, nobody wants the euro. Negative Interest Rateshave killed the euro as a viable currency for exchange purposes. The EU President Juncker has said that it is “absurd” that Europe has to pay for its energy imports in dollars. He has failed to understand that it is their own fault, for the structurally defective euro lacks a central national debt and forces everyone to look at each member state independently in the same manner that applies to state debt in the USA. That lack of a national debt where capital can park has been the fatal flaw behind the euro. Then add the stupidity of Negative Interest Rates and you get a currency that dressed up for Halloween, but is by no means a real reserve currency.

China has given up on trying to fight the dollar. They realize that all the yelling and screaming is pointless. The yuan accounts for only 4% of international transactions. The key for China is to use the yuan in loans to build its road of trade globally. Their greatest hope will be for the Monetary Crisis Cycle to undermine the dollar in the year ahead. That combined with the neo-cons trying to weaponize the dollar will be the ultimate means to dethrone the dollar

Manipulating the World Economy


COMMENT: I just finished “Manipulating the World Economy.” What a wonderful book and actually a gift to those of us who attended the October conference. I hope you will soon publish this book for all the public to read.

JL

REPLY: It is going off to the printers within the next week. We hope to have it ready for Christmas. I really did try to make it the most comprehensive book on the subject matter. I was asked to write it because there was nothing out there to combat the Modern Monetary Theory, and those such a Thomas Piketty who advocate seizing the wealth of anyone who has more than he does.

 

US Economy Soft – But Holding


COMMENT: I find it interesting how the rest of the world is declining and Socrates forecast that the US economy would be only slightly weak going into January 2020. It is interesting how it picks up the major differences. They are blind to the trend. You bring together the world. Thank you for that and there will always be idiots who cannot comprehend the trend and think Warren Buffet is a great investor when he was just a buy and hold no different than Trump. They both made money simply because of the inflationary asset trend since 1985.

Great forecast

KL

REPLY: The US economy was not poised for a major recession that everyone was forecasting because of the China trade dispute. It is softer, yes, but it is really holding up the entire world economy. The third quarter GDP was still up 0.8% whereas the prior quarter was up 1.1%. So yes, it was a slight decline. But we do not show a major economic decline in the USA.

As long as stocks have been in a bull market since 1985, then buy and hold works. But they lose in downtrends. Everyone forgets that. The year 2008 was the worse year Buffett had in 44 years. Most people cannot hold through such declines. This is why institutions have used us for decades. They cannot buy and sell like short-term investors. They need to know when to flip a major portfolio. Truly smart value investors hedge. That eliminates the risk of having to declare bankruptcy during the declines.

Norway – the Confusion in Trend


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong.
Does Socrates have an explanation of what is happening to the Norwegian Kroner? All the financial newspapers and banks here in Norway are scratching their heads and don’t have an explanation of why it’s devaluating against the Euro and Dollar. The central bank of Norway has an interest rate of 1.50%, while Euro has an interest rate of -0.5%.
BT

ANSWER: Norway’s currency has been declining recently over concerns with regard to the US-China trade dispute given the fact that it is highly exposed to the US-China trade situation. Additionally, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has also impacted the currency given the oil and gas industry accounts for more than 1/20th of Norway’s gross domestic product and about 2/3rds of its exports. Therefore, Norway’s economy has been highly correlated with oil prices.

Nevertheless, in Korona, the price of oil is rising given the decline in the currency (click on the image). The analysis never looks at everything from an international perspective. Your currency is retesting the 2000 high in the dollar.

Mortgage Backed Securities Still Defaulting – Bad Omen for Real Estate?


During the last Mortgaged Backed Security scandal which undermined the entire world economy, they created mortgage modifications which enabled millions of delinquent homeowners to avoid having their home foreclosed. Since 2007, it has been estimated that some 8.7 million permanent mortgage modifications were created. There are still over $800 billion of these bubble-era loans outstanding. How were they allowed to survive? For at least the past five years, between 75% and 95% of all mortgage modifications have taken the past interest due that was in default, included it in a capitalization of interest arrears, which means the resolution was never for the benefit of the homebuyer.

By adding the past-due interest, they have been paying interest on the interest. This failure to address the issue by some partial debt forgiveness with respect to prior interest means that the mortgage crisis has been simply postponed. If a new financial crisis hits, the old one will simply be sent off into foreclosure and real estate values can still plummet even more in the low-end of the market.

Barrons did a good review of the problem. They came to the conclusion that re-defaults will be more likely as home values fail to get back to par and these people will just walk away. Indeed, the resolution should have been the forgiveness of past-due interest. Then the value of the homes would have been less impacted. But the bankers refused to accept the loss and as a result, real estate has been unable to recover on the low end of the market which is why the economy has not been robust as it should be boosted more by capital inflows than true economic recovery.

 

When we look at our broad real estate index, it has been making new highs in 2019. However, when we plot this in Euro, we can see why there have been foreign capital inflows. But the foreign capital has been buying the high-end, not the class where the mortgage bubble of 2007 impacted. From a foreign perspective, the high investment end of the markets has been above the 2007 high for the past 4 years. This is why the new highs have tended to be concentrated in the major centers like New York City and Miami – not local main streets.

Barrons reported that if we look at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) which holds the second-largest residential mortgage portfolio in the nation, we see in its second quarter of 2019 report, that almost $10 billion of modified loans (known as troubled debt restructuring)remained outstanding. Of this restructured debt, 43% were listed as having re-defaulted. Bank of America (BAC) has stated that 41% of its modified loans had re-defaulted.

 

Howie Baetjer explains what Communism is!


How is Communism described in theory, and how does it play out in the real world? Join us for our question and answer series with Prof. Howard Baetjer

Using Other People’s Money


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You had said you retired from market-making in the precious metals when in the early ’80s people were claiming to sell Krugerrands for spot with delayed delivery. I think they went bust and went to jail if I recall you said back in 1985. Is this the same thing happening in online brokerage with this no commission scheme? How are they making money?

SY

ANSWER: No, it’s not the same. If I remember correctly, it was a firm delaying the delivery of the gold coins by 90 days. They were playing the bear market, assuming gold prices would always be lower based on the fact that the Fed raised interest rates to 14% in 1981. Back then, I was making more money on the float in my account than I was on the gold. The cost on the Krugerrands was spot +4%, so they were making +15% using the money in overnight markets, plus delaying delivery, and they would not buy the coins until the price declined from where they sold them to you. That was pure speculation and I decided I would retire rather than play that game. If I had to speculate to pay salaries it made no sense. They went bust in 1985 and ended up in jail, if I recall, when gold rallied out of the 1985 low and they could not cover all the promises they had made on the coins.

Here we have a similar issue with making money indirectly. Stockbrokers get kickbacks or rebates from the market-makers for steering the business and they make money on the spread between bid and ask. So the retail brokers are still making money that way. But then they also get to use your funds to earn interest. In place of commissions, they make money from charging traders who buy stocks on margin.

Therefore, you have:

  • Interest they earn on your money
  • Rebates from market-makers
  • Interest they charge on margin

This is more legitimate than the gold brokers who were speculating with other people’s money back in the ’80s