Turkey looking to Cut Taxes to Fight Inflation?

Since the beginning of the year, the Turkish currency has lost more than a third of its value against the dollar. As the currency declines, imports rise in cost since they are denominated in foreign currency.  This adds to the inflation problem domestically. Among other things, the sharp criticism of Erdoğan in the markets has cast doubt on the independence of the central bank. In September, it raised its key interest rate from 17.75 to 24 percent in the fight against inflation without success. This too adds to inflation.

There are people starting to look at tax cuts in selected areas to compensate for the crisis in hyperinflation. It is an interesting proposal but Erdoğan is worried about a real coup this time.

Real Estate – Taxes – Currency

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

I bought ‘The World Real Estate Report’ at the end of 2016. It stated that Australian real estate was going to fall after the first quarter (March) in 2016. The property prices in Melbourne (where I live) continued to rise in April 2016 so I sent an email to Socrates Support asking them when real estate should peak. I received the reply below, which stated that the peak was either in for global real estate or the latest by the end of the first quarter 2017.

Anyway, since I owned a tiny house in Melbourne, I was facing a difficult decision if I should sell or not since it would be impossible to buy back in if the prices continued to go up.

I have been reading your blog daily since 2012, and I have read all of your forecasts being correct (eg. the Dow continuing to go up, US Index going up, Brexit, Trump winning). I also bought your Gold report in 2014 and watched gold bottom (Dec 2015) correctly for the date and price on the first benchmark, truly an unbelievable forecast.

Based on your track record I decided to sell my property at the end of the first quarter (March 2017), for which I received a fantastic price.

I’m happy to inform you that prices have been falling since the 3rd quarter of 2017.

I just wanted to congratulate you on another correct forecast.

REPLY: We all need a place to live. Governments are attacking real estate thinking it is too high and they need to make it more affordable for others to buy. They fail to understand that when they do that, the wipe out the savings dor retirement for others. Raising taxes to support government pensions is morally wrong and economically a disaster. There really should be some qualification to be a politician who them plays with people’s lives

Poland to Break with EU by 2020?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; When you were here last giving lectures in Poland, you said that we should leave the EU, retain our currency, and focus of your ties to the United States and Asia. You said if we did that, Poland would be one of the most imp[ortant economies in Europe. Have you updated that forecast at all?

Thank you

It was a tremendous honor to shake your hand in Warsaw.


ANSWER: Poland is and will remain at the center of economic growth within Europe and it will still experience increasing political influence. Poland’s population won’t decline as much as those of the other major European economies and that is critical moving forward economically. Poland is also the most prosperous European state on Russia’s western border. That will mean that it will expand its position as a regional leader with political and economic prestige.

The Zloty has strengthened against the dollar and the Euro. The critical time where Poland may see this break with the EU could come in 2020.

Kennedy – Roosevelt & Corruption?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I had always heard that Kennedy made a fortune on Scotch. My question is, where they booze runners during the Prohibition?

Thank you


ANSWER: No. But they actually used Roosevelt to secure that lucrative import trade of Scotch – my favorite drink. Joe Kennedy traveled to London in 1934 on the steam-driven ocean liner, the SS Europa. While he brought his wife with him he also brought James Roosevelt (1907 – 1991), the American president’s oldest son. The trip was portrayed as a please vacation, but bringing the President’s son was the clear signal it was not a vacation.

Kennedy’s main prize would be to gain the British rights to send Scotch whiskey, gin, and other imported liquors. He knew based upon inside information that Prohibition would be ended. Joe brought the president’s 25-year-old son to help organize a private visit with Winston Churchill.  He used Roosevelt’s son to get that contract. The deal paid off and Joe got the private meeting with Churchill and visited him at Churchill’s Chartwell home.

So you see, political inside favors have been going on a very long time. James Roosevelt was closely linked with Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. Many of James Roosevelt’s controversial business ventures were indeed aided by Kennedy. Jame’s dealings were often clouded. In fact, Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau even threatened to resign unless FDR forced James to leave a questionable company which became known as the National Grain Yeast Corp. affair (1933–35), which was believed to be just a front for bootlegging. It was James Roosevelt who lobbied his father to make Kennedy the ambassador to the United Kingdom.

James was a shading type of character in the eyes of many. Later on, during July 1938, there were allegations that he had used his political position to steer lucrative business to his insurance firm. He was then forced to publish his income tax returns and denied these allegations in an NBC broadcast and an interview in Collier’s magazine. This became known as the Jimmy’s Got It affair after Alva Johnston’s reportage in the Saturday Evening Post. Roosevelt resigned from his White House position in November 1938. The press was often highlighting how rich Jimmy was becoming when his father was a Socialist

Bundesbank warns of Coming Pension Crisis

The Bundesbank has come out warning that there is a German pension crisis. They have proposed that states raise the pension tax and that they should gradually increase the retirement age because the life
expectancy in the future has risen. Central Bank President, Jens Weidmann, has stated that he is generally in favor of raising the statutory retirement age beyond 67 years.

We must understand that the ECB policy of “stimulating” the economy with negative interest rates has bankrupted state pension plans. This theory that lowering interest rates to get people to borrow and thus manipulate demand higher has NEVER been proven to have ever worked. The consequence of what we now face is a major pension crisis that is undermining the future of Western economies

Gold & Bitcoin


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I really encountered an insane goldbug who claimed you were paid off by the gold cartel to keep the price down. These people cannot open their eyes and see anything but gold or bitcoin. Then they argue the age of knowledge and bitcoin will become the new reserve currency. You really have to wonder if these people are on drugs. Will you be doing a gold report soon? Is it still a viable option for some portion of wealth in the future. Bitcoin seems to depend entirely upon a power grid. I was traveling back to the States and was actually asked if I had cryptocurrency. I said no. What is all that about?


ANSWER: Yes we will be doing a gold report soon. Yes, these people are insane. Why would the gold cartel want to suppress gold prices? They claim to force people to sell their gold at cheap prices. But the annual production of new gold is about 3150 tons as of 2017. There are 32,150.75 troy ounces per metric ton. That means the annual production during 2017 was 101,274,862.5 troy ounces. That is a lot of new gold coming to the market every year. That is far more than small investors would be dumping. You really think they would suppress the gold price to force small investors to sell say even 10 million ounces when they mine more than 100 million annually? That is really just sophistry and it is a shame people would even believe such nonsense.

I really cannot imagine that any government would surrender power to Bitcoin. Come on. Spain is criminally prosecuting Catalonia politicians for simply advocating a democratic vote to separate from Spain. But governments will surrender their power to Bitcoin? The dollar is not even the RESERVE CURRENCY by choice. The USA has been trying to encourage competition and advocated the creation of the Euro back at the Plaza Accord in 1985. The USA always wants a cheaper dollar to sell more goods overseas to create in theory domestic jobs. Even Trump advocates that position of a cheaper dollar. Only a fool would believe that governments will lay down their power simply because you ask them to. Open any history book. Power shifts NEVER come involving government without major uprisings. Sorry, they will NEVER sit on their hand and watch their power evaporate. They will only surrender power during revolutions for they will kick and scream every step of the way.

As far as cryptocurrency declarations, they are beginning to look at anything that they can confiscate that is more than $10,000 when traveling calling it all cash. Italy confiscated bonds a man had in a briefcase on his way to Switzerland. It was not “cash” but they are calling anything that can be converted or sold as “cash” because they are desperate. I wrote about those proposed regulations last year.

During August, gold fell to 1162.70 intraday. The channel support rests at 1144.03. Gold open interest is about 488,000 contracts which amount to almost $600 million. That compares to the production in 2017 valued at $121.5 billion. The total market capitalization of the US share market alone is about $30 trillion. The US National Debt is about $20 trillion. Total world sovereign debt is closer to $250 trillion. Gold is simply not a big enough market to displace everything of value out there. It is one component that will rise in value. But gold will NEVER replace the dollar and governments will NEVER return to any commodity standard.

The true wealth of every nation is its people and their productive capacity. China, Japan, and Germany, all rose to be major economies with no gold reserves. Russia, which had all the resources, moved from communism to an oligarchy and that prevented its economy from exploding as was the case in China. All the gold, diamonds, and oil, did not propel Russia to #2 economy. It is the people that create wealth – not merely resources. Forget returning to any commodity based currency. It does not work any more than austerity works in Europe.

How Politicians Are Creating the Worst Economic Crash in History

Politicians have totally and completely misunderstood the trends within the global economy and as a result, they are actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in history. I have explained several times that the bulk of investment capital is tied up in two primary sectors – (1) government bonds and (2) real estate. Because of income taxes, real estate has offered a way to make money in capital gains without having to pay income taxes. Money has looked to park in real estate around the world for many various different reasons as in Italy was the escape from inheritance taxes as well as banks or in Vancouver to gain a foothold for residency fleeing Hong Kong. In Australia, there was the Super Annuation Fund which allowed people to use retirement funds for real estate. In New Zealand, the new government wanted to declare foreign investment just illegal and in Australia, they made it a criminal act for a foreigner to own property and not inform the government they were foreigners. Over in London, they imposed taxes on property which created a crash.

People spend more when they believe that they have big profits in their home. The recession of 2007-2010 was so bad recording the worst of all declines since the Great Depression all BECAUSE it undermined the real estate values. People then spent less because they viewed their home declined in value. As taxes have been rising and the average home value collapsed, the velocity of money kept declining. Especially as real estate values declined and interest on savings accounts vanished hurting the elderly who saved money for retirement and discovered their savings were producing less income, the velocity of money just plummeted. The velocity of money began to turn up finally in the USA ONLY when interest rates began to rise. The retired could suddenly begin to make something on the savings for one in a very long time. This is something the ECB still has not figured out in Europe as it has wiped out both the elderly savings along with pension funds.

The USA targeted only New York and Miami requiring that title companies pierce corporate veils to discover who was really behind what. They did not impose taxes only on foreigners nor did they outlaw foreign ownership of property. This is also why the high-end market recovered, just not the average home on the street. Nonetheless, polit6icians have gone nuts imposing all sorts of regulations to outright making it a criminal act for a foreigner to buy property. What they are clueless about is this undermining of the real estate market viewing foreign buyers as evil, is undermining real estate as a whole and that is what creates the worst economic decline in history. This undermines the banking system that has used real estate as collateral for mortgages and it undermines consumer spending because people save more when their property declines.

The politicians are actually creating the worse possible scenario for the economy going forward. Welcome to the new face of stupidity. They are so out there that it is like they are sitting on a branch of a tree and cutting the branch expecting the tree to fall. This is what they have done to real estate which makes even what Goldman Sachs did in 2007 child’s play.

Now add government borrowing which completes against the private sector and it only gets even more stupid.  Then we have brain-dead investors who actually think government debt is “quality” when they have ZERO intentions of ever paying off their debt at any point in the future. Governments borrow year after year with no understanding what they are doing to the entire economy and how they are causing unemployment to rise with ever more taxes and more borrowing completing with the private sector on every level.

Then society elects people with absolutely ZERO business experience who in turn appoint academics who have wonderful theories that have never proven to have worked even once! And people wonder hy I say they will never listen to prevent a crisis so we have no coince but wait for the Crash & Burn.


Merkel Has been the Face of Europe – So Get Ready!!!!


Merkel has been the face of Europe – good, bad, or indifferent. Germany has been the major economy in Europe with France a distant second. We must understand that the fate of the Euro hinges on this position of Merkel. She has been a staunch supporter of austerity and the Green and AfD are rising BECAUSE of Merkel’s immigration policy. Instead of recognizing she may a major mistake and address it instantly, she has done the typical politician maneuver – blame everyone else and deny it was her policy at fault.



I cannot stress enough that the political instability within Europe, is a critical factor behind the capital flows that can push the dollar to unbelievable highs. Our unique capital flows analysis which we invented is backed by raw data which is contributed from proprietary sources worldwide which allow us to really see the trends without opinions or myopic domestic analysis. All of these people who keep talking about how the dollar has to crash are so caught up in old world theories that have NEVER been correct and have not just failed their analysis of things such as gold, but they have failed the central bankers on an even grander scale. This is why even central bankers attend the WEC. There is a much higher plane of financial analysis that we must respect and come to grips with BECAUSE we are all in this together. NO politician can even pretend to be in charge of the economy and make promises that are far beyond their control because NOBODY can go against the global trend. PLAIN & SIMPLE!!!!!!!

A special report is going out this week for the attendees of the WEC. This is on the Economic Confidence Model and the major November 2018 Convergence that is on our doorstep. The consolidation is about to end. So buckle up – we will be on our way to something really extraordinary that no domestic analysis will ever see coming.

In that respect, it will be like the 1987 Crash that was caused by external factors that never appeared in domestic numbers or analysis. It was so significant, that is when the Presidential Commission was compelled to request all our international research to understand how external factors overpower domestic.

So welcome of 2018. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Better than any movie, TV show that’s for sure!

Is it the Elections or Interest Rates?

QUESTION: Dear Marty,
Thanks for the continuous enlightening blogs about increasing interest rates and its effects on EM’s and others.
Today on Bloomberg , they were discussing that the earlier 60:40 Equity bond correlation is breaking down and now it’s 100:0 i.e. both go up and down together.
If I understand your view correctly , the increasing interest rates is a death knell for the Bond trade/Sovereign Debt but totally opposite for the Equity mkt which might surge as capital flees to Private assets i.e Equity.
Would you care to comment please ?
Thanks again for all that you do and the fresh perspective you provide.
Best Regards,
ANSWER: They are misreading the impact of interest rates. It is really a political impact at this time and as we head into the week of 11/05, there is a rising concern because the Gallup Poll shows that the Democrats may take back the House and them everyone assumed they will do everything in their power to overturn everything Trump has done. So international capital is deeply concerned about the Democrats right now.

We are still in this consolidation transition period. Capital is trying to figure out the future and it is very confusing. This analysis you refer to is myopic at best. They ignore worldwide concerns and focus only on domestic issues. Interest rates have been rising since the 4th quarter of 2015. The decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates. They just have to blame something.

Pension Crisis hits Russia

Vladimir Putin tried to reform Russia’s pensions system which is crumbling as is the case in the West. This giant Ponzi Scheme is collapsing and it has been the heart of Socialism. Putin’s approval rating plummeted this year in the aftermath dropping from 82% in April 2018, dropping to 66% here in October 2018. His decision to reform Russia’s pensions was met with tens of thousands of Russians taking to the streets to protest. This is what we are to expect over the course of the next two years. It is also why the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to gradually raise interest rates in hopes of stabilizing the Pension Crisis.

There is simply NO system that will survive this Pension Crisis because the design was faulty from the outset. The traditional way people took care of their future was to build a family structure. The children took care of the parents. The promises of socialism have relieved the children of such obligations for the government was there. As we begin to witness this crisis unfold, the world financial system will be turned on its head.