Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks
Re-Posted Jun 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The idea of some Universal Basic Income has been around for a long time. Here is Milton Friedman on his proposal of a Negative Income Tax. There will always be welfare for there are people who cannot work for some disability and others who prefer not to work and game the system. Even programs where the state directly pays for the food rather than food stamps or restricts the food stamps to certain products, the ingenuity of some people cannot be underestimated. They will sell the products they get for cash. There are signs on the streets buying needles and strips from people who are diabetic and get them for free from the state. There are instances where a woman has a child and tells the state she has no idea who the father is yet a night he shows up and leaves when a case worker is due to arrive. These are abuses of the system that no matter what we try to do, there will be people who figure out how to work the system. So there will NEVER be 100% compliance no matter what system we devise.
The Fed meeting this week has triggered a turn in the dollar as US rates dipped on the 10-year to their lowest since Trump took office. As a result, the greenback is the weakest among the majors for the week thus far as we should expect for a decline near-term. Although there has been an impressive rally in EUR/USD, that currency has significant overhead resistance. The euro has not gained nearly as much as its major counterparts such as the Swiss and the C$.
While everyone will focus on interest rates, at the end of the summer we will see a refocus back on the structural problems in the Euro. Trump will be jumping for joy with a lower dollar for that will help in trade issues. The lower interest rates will also help to reduce interest expenditures on the national debt. So once again, we are looking at the calm before the storm.
We are looking at having it Translated into several languages. We hope this English version will be available by October in hardbound. I really hope this will help change the debate for what lies at stake is the future for us, but more so our posterity.
манипулируя мировой экономикой
Manipulation der Weltwirtschaft
A lot of questions have been pouring in from how much to will there be a kindle version. I am not sure of the cost yet. That depends on the printer. It will be full color and extensively illustrated. It covers everything you wanted to know about what is going on with the central banks. There will be a documentary film next year on this subject matter.
The price will be for general circulation worldwide. As soon as it is available, we will let everyone know.
Draghi has come out and said that is inflation will not pick up, he will do even more Quantitative Easing. I has warned that the central banks, particularly the ECB, are trapped. They simply cannot return to any normal economic model without blowing up the entire Eurozone. This is becoming extremely serious. The only option for governments will be to adopt the Modern Monetary Theory for it has become impossible for central banks to use interest rates to stimulate the economy when governments themselves are the biggest borrowers.
I have put this all out in a book which is off at the printers and I hope will be available soon on Amazon. I have dealt with all the controversial issues and why the economic theories all still taught in universities today are no longer practical or relevant. This is why there is a turn to the Modern Monetary Theory for they have nothing else on the table to consider. Here it is. I have tried to deal with all the issues people have been writing in about in an authoritative manner. I have done this because it is extremely important and I have been told that funding for another documentary to cover this topic has not been granted.
We will let everyone know as soon as it goes up for sale.
I have finished an important book which is just going off to press now for printing. This is an important work on how the central banks are trapped and how the manipulations of the World Economy are collapsing in upon themselves. The major central banks are now shifting policy from protecting the people and the economy to protecting the government. Not all are following this policy. Those that are burden with socialist programs are imploding. The more than 10 years of Quantitative Easing has destroyed bond markets and managed to get government addicted to low-interest rates that the private sector has been turning its back on. There have even been German bond auctions with no bid from investors.
This addresses the Modern Monetary Theory, its origin, and where it would leave us at the end of the day. We are at a crossroads in economic theory because ALL of the old theories has completely collapsed. Everything from Keynesian back to Marxism has crumbled to dust. Hopefully, this work will encourage real research and open the eyes in a subject that puts at risk our entire way of life.
Those attending the WEC in Orlando will be entitled to a hardbound autographed edition.
QUESTION: I am confused. Is it true that only the Federal Reserve can create money and not the Treasury?
ANSWER: It all depends upon your definition of money. If you are asking about paper currency, then the answer is yes. If you are speaking of “elastic money,” which really is just book-entries, then that is also truly confined to the Federal Reserve. If you are including in your definition of money all government borrowings, then that is the prerogative of the Treasury. Now, if you are talking about leveraged book-entries where a bank is lending out money so two accounts will show an entry for the same money or close to it, then that is private banking lending. The definition is fluid. It depends greatly upon what you are calling money.
QUESTION: Central banks around the world are currently purchasing equities. If they continue to purchase equities, will we ever have a significant market downturn again? What happens when central banks acquire enough shares to control corporations?
ANSWER: Yes. The central banks have been buying equities to try to diversify their balance sheets as they also see what is coming down the road. Still, they are not the major buyers to influence the market in that manner. Corporate buybacks have been a much stronger factor in the marketplace.
The reason why we will not have a major crash is simply because this time it is different — the crash is in the debt markets.
The truth at any cost lowers all other costs
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