Kroger CFO Notes More and Faster Food Inflation Coming in Next Several Months


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 12, 2021 | Sundance | 78 Comments

This is not a surprise data-point for readers here.  However, it is good to see honest statements from corporate executives on what to expect with food inflation.

As noted by Kroger Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip in a call with financial media, we can expect to see even more rapid inflation in food prices overall in the next several months:

MSM – Cincinnati-based Kroger Co., which had $132 billion in sales last year, says inflation is running hotter than management previously anticipated and that expectations are now for prices to rise 2% to 3% over the second half of this year.

Kroger is “passing along higher cost to the customer where it makes sense to do so,” said CFO Gary Millerchip on the company’s second-quarter earnings call on Friday. (read more)

The reason for more inflation is not too difficult to understand.  Fresh foods show fast price increases immediately because they have almost no pre-existing inventory.  Fresh foods go from field to fork the fastest, and price increases show up immediately.  The same applies to restaurants.

However, processed foods and shelf stable foods have a deeper inventory, the turns on that inventory take longer, and as a consequence, it takes longer for the price increases to show up.  Millerchip is simply saying the total supply chain price increases are going to hit, and they are going to hit even harder than the last few months, as the new processed inventory carries a higher cost.

The skyrocketing prices at the grocery store are predictable based almost entirely on Joe Biden’s pro-Wall Street and Multinational Corporation policies.  Main Street is getting hammered, and the working class is suffering as a direct result.

Their specific accountability for these outcomes is why the Biden administration is trying to distract and blame COVID-19 for supply chain issues.  However, it is not COVID driving the prices, it’s Joe Biden policies that benefit multinationals.  {Go Deep}

Food products are fast-turn consumable goods, and the inflation in the food sector is jaw-dropping already.  However, fresh and processed foods turn at different inventory levels.

Obviously fresh foods spoil fastest (think produce, fish, meats and dairy), so they are replenished more quickly, and the thin supply chain (field to fork) passes along increased costs fast. Processed foods have a longer shelf life (boxed, canned, frozen, etc), and as a consequence, have a much larger inventory level in manufacturing, warehousing and retail storerooms/shelves.  Within processed foods, there is a lag between cost increase at origination and that cost hitting the stores.

The problem identified within the current ‘producer price index’, is that price increases in the raw material and intermediate material are building into the supply chain.  Keep in mind, the entire supply chain is dependent on energy costs and the fuel prices that impact transportation.

The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality.  There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products (2020 data).  The previously processed food price increases are currently reflected on store shelves (already hurting).  However, the coming processed processed food price increases will be much, much higher.  We will see even higher prices on processed foods in the supermarket.

The same price increases happen for restaurants, albeit faster as they follow the similar supply chain to fresh foods.

Pro Tip – Buy your Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday shelf-stable items now (spices, condiments, flour, sugars, dried foods etc.) before the prices go up in the next few months.

Two Generations Agreeing in Song


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Sep 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Here we have the opposite generations of artists singing songs (click on image) about the same problem. I think this is fantastic for what you are listening to is showing that the Resistance is rising. I think we are all tired of the COVID nonsense. Debating if it will kill people in 2 to 3 years or it will track people with chips and nano-technology. I believe it will impact fertility for I have been informed already that girls in their 20s have been experiencing side effects impacting their menstrual cycle changes by staff with direct experience. With both Gates & the Rockefeller Foundations trying hard to reduce population, I do not find a single world of Gates as being trustworthy nor his puppets at the World Health Organization and our most dear Saint Anthony Fauci.

These two songs are a glimmer of hope that there are two distant generations singing about the same problem. I long the Monalisa Twins and how they point out that Gates, a college dropout, has elevated himself to our global health czar with absolutely no expertise in climate or health. Yet the press he has indeed bought, run to him for his guidance on these subjects.

Then there is even resistance showing up in Rap songs such as Tom MacDonald’s Brainwashed.

This is the real agenda – not COVID. That is just the tool to scare the hell out of people to surrender all their liberty to prepare for the Great Reset. We need more singers to come out for we now have one year to defeat these people.

Australia’s Finest Politician Setting New Standards for the World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Sep 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

This compiled video (click on image above) sums up Australia’s FINEST Politician and how absolutely insane she has become in the face of this manipulated pandemic for political purposes. I think she must have watched too many Naxi films when growing up and was deeply inspired. This is who the Australian police are protecting. Well, when Australia falls, they can always plead they were just following orders as they did at Nuremberg. Australia – really going down under this time!

Categories:Tyranny

I Bought a Politician – Cheaper by the Dozen


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Sep 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Consumer Spending Unexpectedly Collapses in July as Essential Purchases Become Primary Focus of Working Class, Inflation is The Underlying Problem and It Will Get Worse


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 17, 2021 | Sundance | 228 Comments

The U.S. Census Department releases retail sales data today showing a strong contraction in consumer spending for July [MSM LINK].  The out-of-touch financial pundits were looking for a 0.3% decline; however, the drop was four times greater with a contraction of 1.1% in spending.

“The slide in retail sales comes after Friday’s preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan showed one of the largest drops on record, leading some strategists and economists to warn of downside risk to the sales data.” (link)

This should not be unexpected for those who read here.  Massive price inflation on essential goods is eating up wages.  Food, fuel and energy price increases are changing consumer spending habits.  Non-essential purchases have stopped….. they haven’t slowed, they have stopped. ←Emphasize this because it is not showing up yet in the data lag.

The data reflects that auto sales were the primary contributor to the decline in spending (-4.3%).  This should make sense to people because auto purchases are the largest general consumer purchase outside of home purchasing.

When purchase decisions are made by families; and food and fuel prices are skyrocketing; replacing a vehicle is not essential.  Auto sales are a key indicator of consumer confidence and income.

Overall inflation is the primary driver.  Real wages are declining (wages – inflation), and disposable income is dropping quickly.  Americans need to start talking very deliberately about what is about to happen.  CTH predicted this and has been walking through the visible outcomes as each set of new data surfaces {SEARCH BOX}.  Nothing happening right now is unforeseen or not easily understandable.

There is a cascading effect that happens within the economy.  Income shrinks, then spending shrinks, then employment shrinks and work hours reduce.  It is an unavoidable outcome inside the middle-class economy.

Two-thirds of our national economy (GDP) is dependent on middle-class consumer spending.  Any impact to that spending cornerstone triggers downstream consequences. Large ticket items (like cars) are the first to drop. [Car sales have declined 10.4% from their peak in April.]  Luxury goods in general come next.

Wage-earners, families around the table, husbands and wives, start making decisions on finances based on income outlays.  The roof over your head is the priority; then comes food, and the prices are rising;  then gasoline, and again rising prices; finally facilitating expenses for work and school.

I said in June, at a macro level home prices had reached their peak (last two weeks of May, first two weeks of June was apex).  Obviously, there are some geographic home value increases still happening as COVID related regional issues and work opportunities are shifting populations.  There is also a lag and ripple effect that takes time to work through the economy.  The macro-apex will not be visible until next year.

People go where the work is, and the work is in the freedom zones (red states/regions).  Population shifts keep some area home prices increasing.  However, on a national macro-level the apex has been reached.  People cannot afford higher mortgage payments and simultaneously deal with massive inflation on essential purchases.

Economic pressure works to the benefit of the command and control authority who wish to force vaccinations upon people.  The fear of losing a job becomes more of an issue for people when income security is threatened and they see food prices rising so quickly.  It is unnerving, unsettling and for paycheck-to-paycheck families extremely stressful.  This creates leverage for corporations to require vaccinations for employment.  I wish I had the answers; alas, I do not.

Bottom line is…  Depending on your personal situation,  prepare yourself now for prices to continue rising on both consumable and durable goods.  In the longer term, specifically due to a lack of purchasing, durable good prices will level and eventually drop.  Less people buying stuff makes prices drop as competition triggers and businesses selling durable goods look to survive.  Unfortunately at that point we are usually headed to a recession.

The downside for a drop in durable good purchasing is the workforce behind the manufacturing, distribution and sale of those goods are at risk of losing employment.  Again, a natural outcome.  For the auto-industry, and heavy industrial manufacturing, this is the time of year when retooling is taking place and some manufacturing and production lines are closed.  However, when they return to production those companies might be shocked to find fewer purchase orders for the goods they produce.

Employment is currently stable (especially in the freedom zones); but we should watch for continued signs of consumer spending contraction.  Any employment contraction will be made worse by the millions of illegal aliens now purposefully permitted to enter our nation.

Keep in mind, the Federal Government is pumping money into their command and control economy.  This short-sighted (I would say purposeful and ideological) monetary and economic policy is contributing to massive inflation.

Inflation puts pressure on incomes and savings…. which puts demands on government to support income losses…. which leads to govt pumping more money.  This is the dependency and welfare cycle that seems intentionally being deployed by Biden and the socialists behind him.

FORBES – “Consumers spent less last month than economists had expected, buying fewer things online and holding off on car purchases, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday morning, following Friday’s report of “a stunning loss of confidence

[…]Consumers spent 1.1% less in July than June, more than the 0.3% decline economists cited by MarketWatch had been expecting, after increasing 0.7% the previous month. The decline was driven by the lack of motor vehicle sales, which fell 4.3%.  Nonstore retailers, which includes online shopping, fell 3.1%” (link)

The Real Agenda – Part III


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Aug 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Mr Armstrong,
In regards to your comments on “The-Real-Agenda-Reply”, I’d like to make a remark to where you said that Russia and China will defend their people;
I wish that your statement were true but unfortunately, looking at their vaccine policies, either country seems to have the least interest taking up defence for their people. I have many close contacts in China and it is hell bent on vaccinating everyone right down the adolescent, with regionally mandating vaccinations or else…
Regarding China and Russia not wanting to join the UN is just charades, for if they officially would, there would be no common enemy for the west or the Middle East for that matter.
All governments work together, for I do not believe that China would be so “clumsy” to let Gates, Fauci or whoever leak a virus on their turf without knowing it and, if they truly care, would let this “deliberate slip up” pass…
This is my 2 cents on the subject. Thank you for your terrific blog and all you do. God bless you.
SR

REPLY: Don’t misunderstand me. I am not talking about nation-states that will put their people first. They will NOT surrender their power to this United Nations/WEF Cabal. My statement of thanking God for China and Russia is only in the context that they will stand up against other equally dangerous forces. Here we have Fauci saying he is not concerned about our LIBERTY and then he appears in a video of the World Economic Forum claiming that “inequality” is our #1 problem – not COVID.

BOARD MEMBERS OF WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

Leyen resigned to take charge of EU so it didn’t look so conspiratorial

The World Economic Forum has all the key players in its pocket. This BUILD-BACK-BETTER slogan was created by the WEF and it was rolled out at the Davos meeting in January 2019. John Kerry said at DAVOS – ‘Normal wasn’t working.’ Even Gates bought BioNTech in September 2019 two months before the global assault with COVID which is like the Flu and there is NO VACCINE that will ever eradicate COVID. If you ever paid attention in health class, you would have learned that Smallpox could be eradicated BECAUSE it was not from animals. Any virus that is in animals provides the reservoir needed for it to always return. COVID has been found in 40% of the deer population so there will NEVER be an end to COVID. Because politicians have used this for political change, it means they will NEVER admit this was a scam so what is the end game? Do we remain with masks and social distancing forever to prevent civil protests and revolutions?

This nonsense that getting vaccinate will eliminate COVID shows that not everyone is plain stupid. The CDC recommendations have been inconsistent. The CDC then tells vaccinated people to wear masks and social distance and the White House tried to explain why this did not cover up a lie to start with. The CDC claimed if you were vaccinated there was a small risk of getting COVID. First, the Military says all personnel must be vaccinated,  then when they realize there is huge resistance that changes the policy and says they can apply for an exception. Then because the vaccines are not working, the FDA approves now the third shot.

What happens to the financial markets when they wake up and realize that REAL SCIENCE says there will never come a day to eradicate COVID and as such, there will NEVER be a return to normal.

So in this context, Russia and China will stand in the way of this dream of creating a one-world government. For that, I am thankful. But this is NOT going to end nicely and we will most likely end up in war against Russia and Chins because, in truth, they stand in the way of this cabal.

Shortages & Unemployment


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Aug 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Reserve’s take on the coin shortage says that there are ample coins in the economy, but the banks have also been closed so there was a shortage also created by the fact that businesses could not get coins from a local bank that was operating only in a virtual mode. This also contributed to the problem. So banks, mints, transportation, and mines were all shut down which has created the problem you see in coin shortages, but this similar problem has infected all of the economies. So we have shortages in just about everything.

What COVID has done is tapped into those who prefer welfare and have no problem not working as long as everything is free. Organizations have been formed to keep living for free with no consideration of what that really means to the economy as a whole. They are out in full force to prevent evictions and they only look at this from their perspective. If the landlords are not paid, then they cannot pay their mortgages, and then the banks foreclose. Living free is not a long-term solution but we can easily see how many would love Guaranteed Basic Income with no responsibilities. Without rents, landlords can’t pay mortgages but also repairs. So they will demand landlords repair their place but refuse to pay for anything. What will happen is simple. They will convert private property into state housing and then you will have converted New York City to one giant ghetto.

Everywhere you look there is help wanted signs yet unemployment will not decline. I get a lot of emails from small businesses that cannot go back to normal because there is not enough staff. We even have Judges who have totally lost their mind ordering Maryland must continue to pay the extra unemployment benefits. This is raising unemployment costs in taxes upon those who are working.

You really can’t make up this nonsense. Nobody in their right mind would have created such a system – even a socialist, which would just argue to confiscate property to prevent evictions. Those of us who are working will pay more in taxes to support those who want a free lunch and everything else.

COVID-19, The Color Revolution, The Intelligence Branch and Over a Decade of Test Nudges


Posted originally on the conservative house on August 12, 2021 | Sundance | 178 Comments

It has been almost ten years since CTH first outlined the 1984 interview between Yuri Bezmenov and G. Edward Griffin titled “Deception was My Job”.  [2013 CTH Article Here] However, it is worth revisiting the interview as we find ourselves increasingly influenced by a deliberate effort to control U.S. society.

Mr. Yuri Bezmenov was a Soviet informant and KGB operative who defected to the United States in the early 70s.  Within the interview [full video here], Bezmenov lays out the four stages of “ideological subversion” created by radical Marxists to indoctrinate and weaken nations from within.

It is my contention the Chicago Marxists aligned with Barack Obama (revolutionary communists) were/are following this ‘four stage’ roadmap.  The U.S. State Department is filled with like-minded travelers who align with this approach.

Some researchers have identified the objective as connected to the Fabian Socialist goal, others have called it “The Color Revolution”, but the names do not matter much; what matters is the map they follow, the four stages:

♦Stage One: Demoralization – Elimination of American Exceptionalism, fundamental change of national identity, structural deconstruction of foundational principles, elimination of religion. Embedding a new societal design upon the psyche of generations through ideological academia. Peer pressure by elites upon academics and society to convince that prior values were inherently flawed, racist, prejudiced etc. National identity is diluted with aspersions toward historical references. National history is re-written, re-defined, and molded to fit the new intended behavioral model and create the new values.

♦Stage Two: Crisis – Creation of economic, financial, and national security crisis. Also includes social crisis and breakdown of previous self-evident restrictions on moral behavior. Cloward Piven approach to overloading the system, ie more takers than producers. The crisis produces benevolent leaders who will promise to deliver “things” (Hope and Change) to meet people’s needs through Social and Economic Justice. False illusions that the situation is under control if certain strategic directions are followed (Bailouts, Stimulus, Jobs Bills, Regulations of industry, Unconstitutional Power Grabs, Dismissal of Historical Laws, Changes in legislative processes, Changes in checks and balances of power etc).

♦Stage Three: Normalization – The uncomfortable feelings of change including losses of freedom are absorbed and accepted. Lost national identity becomes accepted as the norm within the new societal model. A period of national rebranding transition where people are so overwhelmed by the change they become numb and begin to accept a ‘new normal’. This period of normalization lasts indefinitely as the progression is continually advanced and acceptance takes place in small controlled doses. (New limits on behavior, Regulations, TSA Patdowns, Intrusions into privacy, Controls into daily life) These things begin to be accepted as “just the way it is now”..

♦Stage Four: Destabilization – Unlike the period of “Crisis” the people who helped orchestrate the change are now no longer needed. The new overarching centralized governmental model begins to take control. Leftist usurpers who initially thought they were going to be part of the new power structure begin to realize they were used and manipulated and they themselves become the new enemy. Because they have first hand knowledge of the agenda they are the primary target for elimination. They may simply be disregarded, obfuscated, thrown out, or they may be collected, imprisoned, or worse killed. There is no longer room for dissention. Dissent is only possible within the free system that has now been deconstructed. Therefore the leftist purpose is served once the destabilization is complete. Totalitarian Government takes control.

Perhaps a reasonable person would argue that elimination of economic capacity (to live freely) is just as restrictive as living inside a walled camp. If you cannot live freely, earn a living freely, move about without restrictions, and determine for yourself your choices, then what really is the difference between being thrown in an internment camp and having the invisible chain link fence of diminished freedom built around your home?

If government can control your income through taxation, employment and redistribution; tell you what to eat by deciding your choices for you; tell you how much energy you are allowed to consume through rules and regulation; tell you what kind of car you can be allowed to drive; tell you what type of toilet you can buy; tell you what kind of detergent you may wash with; determine what information you have access to through the TV media and internet access; and then control your capacity to receive the healthcare of your choice; then really what is the difference between living in a collective camp under such rules and living where you are now but following the same rules ?

I would argue that we are solidly in the middle of stage #3 (normalization), while all around us Stage Four (destabilization) is beginning, perhaps as planned. We talk about the new “isms” all the time. Heck, most of what we discuss is our reluctance to engage in acceptance of the “normalization”, and our seeming frustration to be able to influence “it” to stop presenting us with new acceptance challenges.

♦Everything you just read above was written in 2013.  If we consider the constant nudges, probes and pushes from the leftists in government and society (BLM, Antifa, Occupy Wall Street, etc.), we can consider them as different approaches, tests or probes per se’, toward the same totalitarian outcome.  Then if we overlay the weaponization of COVID-19 fear as the biggest effort so far, well, from that perspective SARS-CoV-2 takes on a new strategic dimension.

FOLLOW THE DOTS […] Through the Dept of State (DoS) the intelligence apparatus began working on their first steps to align Big Tech with a larger domestic institutional objective. Those of you who remember the “Arab Spring”, some say “Islamist Spring”, will remember it was triggered by Barack Obama’s speech in Cairo – his first foreign trip. The State Department worked with grassroots organizers (mostly Muslim Brotherhood) in Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar and Libya. Obama leaned heavily on the organizational network of Turkish President Recep Erdogan for contacts and support.

Why does this aspect matter to us? Well, you might remember how much effort the Obama administration put into recruiting Facebook and Twitter as resources for the various mid-east rebellions the White House and DoS supported. This was the point of modern merge between the U.S. intelligence community and Big Tech social media.

In many ways the coordinated political outcomes in Libya and Egypt were the beta test for the coordinated domestic political outcomes we saw in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The U.S. intelligence community working with social media platforms and political operatives.  (continue reading)

Overlay climate change as a tool, a sociological tool.  How many easily manipulated minds really believe in climate change?  How many people around the world genuinely believe, as their very core essence and worldview,  that man-made climate change is a threat to our species?

Putting aside the fact the behavior of global elites does not reflect their belief in the very Climate Change agenda they sell, what would a weaponized Climate Change agenda really look like?   And…. if humans really were the extinction level threat that many now accept as true, what would the sheeple masses be willing to accept in order to stop it?

Through those multi-dimensional prisms of manipulation – the four stage processes that Yuri Bezmenov describes in the interview could be viewed as steps toward fulfillment of the actual agenda.

What stands in their way?

Us…

Using Global Capital Flow Heat Map


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow Re-Posted Aug 10, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: My question is how do I interpret an increase of 5% or more in the capital flows heat map to any country? Does this mean the stock market is projected to go up? the currency? how I am supposed to interpret it?  How I am supposed to interpret it. Can you give me please some examples?

I have been trying to figure it out for a long time now

ANSWER: Our Global Capital Flow Heat Map tracing the money flows in and out of nations. It is collective and includes moving cash, buying bonds, real estate, and equities. It is the overview you will get nowhere else.  It is not forecasting anything specific. What it is doing is showing the major trend. You then look at the various individual reports in that region.

You will find all the major sectors in Socrates from bonds and stock to real estate. Just comparing our US and German real estate indexes, you can see the difference in capital flows which are reflected in the heat map. The Map clearly shows that capital is pouring out of Europe and it is even moving back to China and Russia. Europe is squarely in the hands of the World Economic Forum and the intention to crush the economy to BUILD BACK BETTER is in full swing. Europe will be the first to fall in the world.

An Honest Explanation About Joe Biden Inflation, and It Has Nothing to do With COVID


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 4, 2021 | Sundance | 43 Comments

Repost from June by Request – Several people have written to CTH for an economic review of our current status. Below this post are two primary precursor articles [Primary One and Primary Two] which outline the economic dynamic in play, and how we can look forward with accuracy to what is likely to happen. Despite the deflective talking points by the professional financial pundits, this massive spike in inflation is entirely predictable due to Biden economic policy and Biden monetary policy.

Keep in mind, the FED already said in April they would “support inflation”, that’s because – while they will not say it openly, they know there’s no way to stop it. The massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration; it’s a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. Also keep in mind the first group to admit what is to come are banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the cause.

There’s no way around this. Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash and unemployment will go up. I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear. CTH was the first place that said months ago that new home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now. There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.

You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.

Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years. With Trump’s policies we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling.  The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.

Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.

China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.

When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods. Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.

In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S. importers was the same as the outcome for U.S-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.

In the middle of this there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.

From 2017 through early 2020 U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy. For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada.

However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.

Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.

♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation. The Joebama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.

With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets. At the same time,  JoeBama dropped tariff enforcement to please the Wall Street multinational corporations and banks that funded his campaign. Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.

Simultaneously, a lower dollar means cheaper exports for the multinationals (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. raw materials at a lower price. That means less raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers. It is a perfect storm.  Higher costs for imported goods and higher costs for domestic goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.

Annualized inflation is now estimated to be around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means housing prices drop because people cannot afford higher mortgage payments.

Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.

This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending. If the spending continues, the dollar continues to be weak, as a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.

Hope that makes sense, and love to all.

~ Sundance