Real Estate – Alternative to Bonds


Armstrong Ecoomics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jun 16, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: It has become impossible to buy houses between $300-$500,000 in the Orlando area. From a realtor, he said that Blackrock is buying everything and they rely on a famous forecaster who said real estate is the only way to earn income. He said he heard it was someone in Florida. Is that you?

HP

QUESTION #2: Is Vanguard and Blackrock part of the great reset fraud?

SB

QUESTION #3: With the revelation of Blackrock buying up single family homes and making homeownership and rentals unaffordable, what is the average person to do? My son and his family and my husband and I were getting ready to purchase homes to settle down in but have now been priced out of most markets and rentals are also hard to come by that we can afford. We live in California but are wanting to get out of Dodge.
Sharon

ANSWER: I am not a liberty to say who is and who is not our client. What I can confirm is that Blackrock has bought more than 20,000 homes in Florida under $500K. They are buying for cash and this is the result of artificially low interest rates. Central banks have created a disincentive for buying government bonds. This is going to come to a head and we will see interest rates rise because big money is looking at the return on renting out homes rather than investing in bonds.

This is not part of the Great Reset in saying you will own nothing. This is the shift from Public to Private. You cannot artificially lower interest rates to absurd levels under real risk and then expect them to remain there indefinitely when these pension and investment funds need higher returns. The good news to this trend is that it is resulting in the institutionalizing of the real estate market which is far better than the last attempt by creating mortgage-backed securities.

Socrates covers real estate around the world which has been part of our Institutional services. We have made this available to all levels of subscribers. We do have this broken down per state in the USA. We will be adding that to the general system because of the impact of this shifting from Public to Private in capital investment.

Democrats Moving to Impose Wealth Tax – 5% of All Assets


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Jun 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

In Germany during December 1922, the last straw that broke the back of the German economy was a forced loan of 10% of all your assets. This destroyed the confidence that remained in the Weimar Republic and thereafter people withdrew the money from banks and started to convert to other currencies and to buy whatever tangible assets they could. Hyperinflation took off in 1923.

History repeats BECAUSE human nature remains the same. In an interview with The Hill, of course, it was a Democrat from New York Thomas Suozzi who said he’s in the early stages of looking at what he called a “patriot tax” which is really a WEALTH TAX that he is proposing to impose as a one-time surcharge of 2.5% on wealth between $50 million and $100 million and a 5% on wealth above $100 million.

This is NOT income – this is on assets. It will require full disclosure of all assets held globally with penalties of imprisonment and confiscation of assets if you lie. Note this is how they introduced the income tax in 1913. They always put the initial level above the average person. In 1913, the average annual wage was about $1,500. Making the income tax starting at $3,000 was to ensure the people would not worry about the rich.

They are doing this once again. True, I would not care if Bill Gates or George Soros had to pay 5% of their gross worth. But they throw that into their foundations which will not be taxed. My real concern is once they push this through, then it is one small step for the government to lower that to $1 million or $500,000. Even if you own a home that is $1 million and you have an $800,000 mortgage, you are taxed on the $1 million – not the net.

Still, many people will say anyone with $1 million can afford to pay 5%. But that includes all assets – the value of your home or business. He says they will give them 5 years to pay it. Why? Because this is on all gross assets that they will then appraise. They can say your home is now worth $1 million despite the fact you paid $250,000 so you have to pay 5% of that $1 million gross as well. We are talking about assets that not LIQUID meaning you then must sell things to pay the tax. This is how they destroy farmers. The inheritance tax forced the sale of land to pay the tax ultimately leading to big corporate farming.

So you wanted to know how to destroy an economy as fast as possible? All you have to do is impose a WEALTH TAX and watch what happens! You can double your money in the stock market, they want 5% to the total gross value. They could easily tax you on the maximum value of Bitcoin holdings during a given period. Do not count on any federal judge ruling in your favor. That will NEVER happen!

So this is just another nail in the coffin of the West and why China will emerge as the #1 world economy. The LEFT will destroy everything – it always ends up that way. That is neither my opinion nor a conspiracy theory. It is just history. The policies of the LEFT are prohibited by the Ten Commandments. Not only does this violate the freedom of religion, the same prohibition appears in other legal codes from ancient times proving that it was prohibited for good reason.

Been There, Done That


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts RE-Posted Jun 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Are you familiar with that studies of pundits have shown that their forecasts are no better than chance. You seem to be in the category of what those studies at Penn University by Philip Tetlock called “superforecasters”. Would you care to comment on how you are right so often when others never are?

UT

ANSWER: I am not familiar with those studies on forecasting but it makes sense. The vast majority of forecasting is nothing more than opinion. That is why they are rarely correct. Even Barron’s took a shot at me because in 2010, the forecast was that we were entering a bull market with new highs on the horizon following the crash of 2007-2009. Of course, Barron’s never wrote another piece to say the forecast was correct. Barron’s acknowledged I had forecast the 1987 Crash. But they never reviewed everything.

The press likes pundits to talk opinion. They are not really interested in forecasting. If they were, they would do a serious article on all our forecasts concerning the methodology that has been correct for a single reason — history repeats. Socrates puts the entire world together and maps out the capital flows. Just follow the money — that will mean you will be far more correct than sticking your finger in the air to judge the direction of the wind.

Stone Age Grave

History repeats because human nature never changes throughout the millennium. We are a species that will never change because human nature remains the same since the dawn of time. There are Stone Age graves with people buried with dignity. The most amazing find so far of a Stone Age grave was of a female and two children hugging each other. They were carefully arranged in this position. This strongly indicated they had spiritual beliefs and cared for their dead, but most of all, it showed love.

Throughout millennia, people before recorded history showed how that they cared for one another. They also showed a consistent belief in the hereafter. There are even dozens of burials in the southwestern Siberian village of Staryi Tartas, where human remains were positioned in pairs facing each other. The rare couple burials are among 600 graves dating to between the 17th and 14th centuries BC from the Bronze Age Andronovo culture. Even in the Stone Age, there was respect for the dead shows love existed then as it does today among our species.

This respect has been a tradition in human communities that appears from the very beginning. But Socrates cannot answer that question. It can show the correlations with religions and demonstrate the similarities of cultures around a central belief system. It cannot confirm or deny the existence of an afterlife. That becomes opinion.

Human nature endures. We travel through time, and technology progresses with our knowledge. However, emotionally we remain very much the same. Society MUST move through these crash and burn periods. It is how we progress through history. We learn only through our mistakes — never our victories.

Therefore, the correct forecasts are not because of my personal opinion or some guess. Everything is based upon history and what that reveals is straightforward. Given the same circumstance, human nature will ALWAYS respond in the same manner, like an animal cornered will stand and fight even if it is a possum that normally plays dead. The future becomes understandable ONLY when you understand the past.

Moonbat Parseltongue, Secretary Janet Yellen Blames COVID for Inflation Today Because Everything Was Cheaper Last Year


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 6, 2021 | Sundance | 109 Comments

Boy I’m glad she decided to take one last question at the end of her G7 Finance Minister press conference, because that one question was the one that mattered…. and it didn’t come from a U.S. journalist (go figure).

In this Q&A with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen she is asked about massive ongoing inflation and why she is not worried about it from a U.S. monetary policy perspective.  Her reply is jaw dropping.  [Video at 25:10 prompted]

First, note the words used “my personal opinion is“, that’s a key *tell* that she is now shifting from economic discussion into the manipulated words of a U.S. political appointee who is in place to support the absolutely insane policies of the JoeBama administration.   However, what she follows with is beyond absurd… it’s professionally false and filled with gaslighting.

Yellen says the COVID pandemic caused “DEFLATION” in 2020 and we are now circling back to year-over-year comparisons in pricing, and that is creating the illusion of inflation where no inflation exists.  She claims pricing is returning to where it was at pre-pandemic levels.  This is an absolutely absurd statement that every single reader of this site can see, feel and absorb in their own lives.

Her example of Airline prices returning to pre-pandemic levels is devoid of reality.  Airline prices are dramatically escalating because fuel and energy prices have risen 40% or more over the past five months.  When the airline industry was hit by COVID impact, to manage costs they shut down operations – reduced flights, put planes out of commission, eliminated on flight services (food beverages), and downsized their entire industry.  They did not significantly lower prices.

Secondly, Housing prices did not drop…. rents did not lower… mortgage rates did not decrease…  grocery store food prices did not drop (they went up)… “Away from home” food prices did not drop (they stopped or stayed the same),…. the cost of cars, hard goods, durable products, did not drop.  Nothing dropped in price.  Instead the sellers of products and services modified their businesses (or shut down) to adjust to the drop in customers.  Barbers and hair stylists did not lower prices…. nothing dropped.

Businesses did not, DID NOT, lower prices.   If anything, they added surcharges for modifications to their business.

Inflation rates this year have absolutely nothing to do with lower prices last year and “return to normal” prices this year.   She is selling nonsense.

THAT is professional gaslighting from the Treasury Secretary of the United States.  Quite remarkable.

April Jobs Report Shows JoeBama Creating Successful Socialist Utopia – Jobs Gains Stunningly Below Expectations, With Downward Revisions for Feb, March


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 7, 2021 | Sundance | 134 Comments

Economic forecasters had predicted one million job gains in April.  The actual results are “stunningly” and “unexpectedly” far below the expectations.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics [SEE HERE] reveals only 266,000 jobs gained in April and downward revisions of March by -146,000.  There are almost 7.4 million jobs available; however, despite the available jobs, no-one is going back to work.

Yes, JoeBama’s “free government money” has created the socialist utopia.

The politically correct economic analysts are shocked that minorities (blacks and latinos) are not going back to work; while ignoring the disincentive that government handouts have created in the JoeBama economy.  The entire dynamic is ridiculous when you consider we should be entering a phase of the jobs economy where vaccination and COVID mitigation should be leading to massive reopenings of the economy overall.

Inside the numbers, the economic sectors showing the worst jobs recovery are directly related to the blue state shut-downs.  Worse yet, there is an underlying scenario showing the economy is not growing despite the ability of businesses to re-open overall.  That spells even more trouble.

(CNBC) – “Today’s report was an enormous surprise and shows the labor market hit a hidden pothole in April,” Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao tells CNBC Make It. “Clearly, the labor market has decelerated quite a bit.”

The 6.1% unemployment rate and 9.8 million people unemployed remained steady in April compared with the months prior. (more)

There is no level of spin that can change the reality of this situation.  JoeBama’s economic policies are exactly the wrong thing to be doing.  Everything, and I do mean every single policy objective, delivered by this administration is AMERICA LAST!

Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%. CNBC’s Jim Cramer discusses what he thinks led to the surprising report.

Beijing Beats New York City


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted May 6, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A number of people often send nasty emails because they do not like the forecast that China will become the next financial capital of the world. The forecasts we put out are NOT based upon my OPINION. I simply report what the computer projects. This Great Reset is playing right into our forecast, for they are deliberately destroying the economy so they can “BUILD BACK BETTER,” as they like to say.

The problem is that they are ignorant of world history. The victor in war is NOT simply the person who has the largest army. There must be some advantage and that boils down to economics. The one with the strongest economy is the victor because they have the capacity to fund the war.

This is why barbarians could never invade Rome until the Roman Empire’s monetary system began to collapse following the capital of Emperor VBalerian I in 260AD. Even Alexander the Great was able to take the Persians because they lost their greatest and were unable to defend against a well-supported army. The South lost against the North in the American Civil War because the North was industrial whereas the South was primarily agrarian.

Deliberately destroying our economy so they can “Build Back Better” while creating food shortages and trying to end raising cattle because of CO2, has set the West on the course to economic decline. This has made the West vulnerable just as was the case with the Roman Empire.

Now everyone is starting to notice and even CNBC says that China will surpass the United States by 2028. Granted, the analytical field seems to notice trends of this nature only when it smacks them in their face. We published the report “China on the Rise” back in 2018.

Now New York City, thanks to Socialists who think they can keep taxing the rich without end,   lost its title as the home of more billionaires than anywhere else. Beijing has now taken that title. Some people think my reliance on history is foolish. History repeats because human nature is always the same.

Mainz

New York is dying. It is, in trading terms, a major SHORT! NYC is following the same path as Mainz. It was the city of Mainz where the Gutenberg printing press was invented. This created an economic boom and everyone wanted to be in Mainz. The politicians saw the boom and presumed the potential tax revenue was linear and would be endless – judging tomorrow by today’s trend. They began to borrow against what they anticipated would be there forever. As they needed the interest to pay for borrowing and became addicted to debt, they raised taxes.

The taxes kept rising so they killed the economic boom and people began to leave. Mainz followed the typical path as we are doing today. They were no longer paying off debt. They entered the Ponzi scheme – issued new debt to pay off the old in a revolving bond auction. Taxes kept rising and people migrated. The printing press was no longer unique to Mainz. The rich left town, taking their capital and entrepreneurship with them. When Mainz lost the confidence of the bond buyers and could no longer sell new debt to pay for the old, the collapse unfolded. Mainz, like Detroit, defaulted. The creditors sacked the city and it was burned to the ground.

The same precise pattern unfolds every time – WITHOUT EXCEPTION. Why? Human nature never changes. Create career politicians and they will always seek to expand government for that is their power base. All that is left is a nice monument commemorating Guttenberg. Of course, they never tell the full story of Mainz.

New York City is making all the same mistakes like clockwork. They think people can be exploited without end. There comes a point where it no longer is beneficial to work as a slave. Why invest in anything if those in power simply want to take whatever you invent.

I pray for 2032 to end corruption and drive a stake through the heart of republican forms of government. We need a new path and anyone who calls for exploiting one class to benefit another should be subject to life imprisonment where they can enjoy carefree and tax-free living in a world of equality.

Shortage of Chickens


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The orchestrated COVID pandemic to change the economy for the BUILD BACK BETTER Great Reset has set in motion food shortages that are now emerging. Farmers have had to plow their crops under, and one had to kill over 30,000 chickens because they simply could not get them to market. Sales of produced collapsed as much as 75% in 2020 compared to 2019 in some areas. Even in Europe, the cold weather has destroyed crops. As I have said, these morons look at the world only in a single dimension. They had no idea that locking people down to lower CO2 meant that they were also cutting off the supply chain in technology to food.

There is a shortage now of chickens, and don’t worry, it will move to beef as well. Add their scheme for a cyber attack, and the future looks really crazy because nobody will lock these people up, no less dare to investigate them. So be warned. This will get far worse post-2024. We should all send a thank you note to Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates for starters.

Fake News Knows What It is Doing


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I wrote to the ________ news and pointed out that you had a computer model that beat all the models that Gates-funded to use to create these lockdowns. They never responded.

HJ

ANSWER: Oh it is worse than that. One of the top five newspapers in the world wanted to write a story about Socrates and its forecasts with respect to COVID. We spoke, and then two weeks later, the powers from above said NO!

It is not a question of them not being aware. They know precisely about Socrates, yet the powers that be give directions not to cover Socrates, for it goes against the narrative. Perhaps if enough people wrote to Fox or the Hill, they might report something. But they too are afraid of stepping into this mess, for they might drown in a swamp filled with quicksand.

Supply v Demand – Does It Always Work?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You say that wheat fell during the Great Depression during the Dust Bowl when supply would have declined. This makes no sense. Would you address that question?

KL

ANSWER: Your problem is typical in analysis. It appears that 99% of the people always try to reduce some event to a single cause and effect. Everything is connected like a line of dominoes. You are not just pushing over a single one. The action has a ripple effect that moves through the entire world economy and is not even restricted to a single nation.

I do not make stuff up to try to prove a point. I have been curious to discover how things really work. When I say we have the largest database in the world, I am not joking. Just as I have been a collector of various things, that includes data. It is easy to find a yearly chart of wheat, but not daily or weekly during that period. Here is how wheat responded during the Great Depression on a weekly basis. Note that it peaked about 4 weeks before the stock market. Then you see a huge gap down in 1931.

This was caused by the wholesale defaults of just about every nation. Some went into a moratorium and suspended payments on their debt like Britain. But most outright defaulted and you can buy their bonds usually on eBay.

Here is the impact of the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis. The dollar soared on our index from roughly the 112 level to nearly 160. That was high which exceeded even World War I levels. That illustrates just how high the dollar rallied. Because wheat was priced in dollars, it fell in terms of dollars while rising in terms of other currencies because of their defaults.

The Federal Reserve raised rates in 1931 during the Depression because they feared that the dollar would collapse because confidence in government globally collapsed.

Now, look at the unemployment. It soared as well. Because people lost their jobs, demand declined with supply. So you see, this is a far more complex issue than meets the eye. It is also why I say governments should NEVER be allowed to manipulate the economy. They always focus on a single cause and effect and never look at the whole.

Consequently, while supply contracts, your assumption that price should rise is predicated upon demand remaining the same or rising. Therein lies your answer. That is simply a false assumption.

Obamanomics vs MAGAnomics – Biden Tax Plan is Part of Intentional Effort to Force The U.S. into a Service Driven Economy, Again


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 23, 2021 | Sundance | 137 Comments

Let’s start by being intentionally direct with each other. The JoeBama tax proposals are not accidental or misguided; far from it.  The intent of Obama’s third term economic policy is to return to forced globalism and diminished U.S. middle-class prosperity…. the often mentioned “service driven economy.”

There is nothing of value behind the obtuse term “service driven economy.” The multinationals are paying for this administration, just like they paid the Obama administration; paying for economic policy that advances their interests.

Congress goes along with the K-Street demands because Wall Street is now the primary benefactor of legislative intent. Nothing about their effort is done with American interests in mind.

Let me also be clear… Ever since I put forth the explanations of “A New Dimension in American Economics” I have been contacted by several prominent people within the financial institutions and academic sphere who agree with the principle. However, every single person states there is too much risk in explaining the intent and motive behind the curtain.

What JoeBama is proposing in his tax plan is specifically intended to rapidly advance the interests of Wall Street and corporate multinationals. Before getting to the baseline of how, let’s first look at his proposals as purposefully leaked:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -President Joe Biden will roll out a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest-ever increase in levies on investment gains, to fund about $1 trillion in childcare, universal pre-kindergarten education and paid leave for workers, sources familiar with the proposal said.

The plan is part of the White House’s push for a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax system to make rich people and big companies pay more and help foot the bill for Biden’s ambitious economic agenda. The proposal calls for increasing the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 37%, the sources said this week. It would also nearly double taxes on capital gains to 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million.

That would be the highest tax rate on investment gains, which are mostly paid by the wealthiest Americans, since the 1920s. The rate has not exceeded 33.8% in the post-World War Two era. […] Sources said details would be released next week before Biden’s address to Congress on Wednesday. Details of the plan may change in coming days. (read more)

We do not need to guess what the impacts would be; we have already seen exactly what results they generate.  We have specific examples from both state domestic (see the Connecticut example), and national outcomes.  The “rust belt” was created by these policies that incentivize off-shoring and outsourcing that benefits multinationals and hurts U.S. based national companies.

Do not get caught up in the leftist narrative about ‘spreading the wealth‘ between the rich and poor.  That is a distractive misnomer created by K-Street as an advanced -albeit false- talking point to deflect political consequences.  The JoeBama goal has nothing to do with supporting poor Americans; the goal is to make everyone in the United States less wealthy, including the “poor”.   The goal is to assist the multinationals; they are paying for this economic policy.

To understand the baseline, let me repost the explanation from four years ago when candidate Donald Trump outlined his “America First” economic policies.  The Trump-era policy was intended to remove the tentacles of the multinationals and support the U.S. middle class.  Again, we don’t have to guess whether Trump was right, because we saw the incredible economic growth his policies (regulatory and treasury) generated.

FIRST, THE PROBLEM:

Anyone thinking Donald Trump was not intensely serious about America-First economics received a massive dose of reality when they realized Donald Trump put reinstatement of Glass-Steagall into the 2016 Republican Platform:

We support reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prohibits commercial banks from engaging in high-risk investment,” said the platform released by the Republican National Committee. (link)

Trump thumbs up

CONTEXT – Beyond the larger context of Globalists VS Nationalists (Americanism), the internal opposition to Common Sense economic conservatism (Americanism) can be broken down into two categories:

Never trump crowd

♦ The first group are those who are fundamentally naive about large and historic economic issues; and how the economy was changed, forced to change through the past forty years, by financial interests who created a second, “false“, paper economy.

This first group is generally young, pseudo-intellectual, and their only reference is while formally educated within the last thirty years (they’re under 50). Most of the oppositional (conservative) punditry falls into this category. [Important to note, this group is also joined by the majority of politicians who are approximately the same age.]

♦ The second group are those who truly know better. They are older and wiser, they know the truth because they saw it unfold. However, they are also financially dependent on retention of a global narrative that sold the change in the past 40 years. These are the willfully blind who have sold-out to the benefit of, and enrichment from, the false economy.

This second group is intent on retaining a historic set of false assumptions by fraud and deception.  There motives can be debated, but most conservatives as well as almost all democrats in media punditry fit into this second grouping. Their false economic framework is then echo-chambered through think-tanks, and passed down to the younger group #1.

ben shapiro
rich lowry

Exhibit “A” would be conservatives standing at CPAC to applaud Speaker Paul Ryan who passed a $2+ trillion Omnibus spending bill to ensure 8 straight years without a budget. See the disconnect?

The world-view of the first group (younger voices, CPAC seal-clappers) is fundamentally seeded on social issues.

They are in no position to speak accurately about economic matters because they don’t have a reference point underpinning their expressed outlook. Their Gen-X and Millennial economic arguments are esoteric opinions . They never experienced the era of industrial giants; they have no form of reference.

♦ In most of the modern post-war industrial era (1950-1980) banking was a boring job and only slide rule bean-counters and actuarial accountants moved into that sector of the workforce. Most people don’t like math – these were not exciting jobs. Inside the most boring division of a boring banking industry were the bond departments within the larger bank and finance companies.

The excitement was in the actual economy of Main Street business. The giants of industry created businesses, built things, manufactured products, created innovation and originated internal domestic wealth in a fast-paced real economy. Natural peaks and economic valleys, as the GDP expanded and contracted, based on internal economic factors of labor, energy, monetary policy and regulation.

Main Street generated the pool of political candidates – because the legislative conduct of politicians had more impact on Main Street. Simply, the business agents had a vested interest in political determinations. Political candidates courted industrialists, business owners, and capitalist giants to support them. As a consequence Main Street USA was in control of DC outcomes.

Despite the liberal talking points to the contrary, this relationship was a natural synergy of business interests and political influence. It just made sense that way, and the grown-ups were generally in charge of it.

government-money

♦ Commercial banks courted businesses because bankers needed deposits. Without deposits banks could not generate loans; without loans banks could not generate profits…. and so it was. By rule only 10 percent of a commercial bank’s income could stem from securities.

One exception to this 10% rule was that commercial banks could underwrite government-issued bonds. Investment banks (the bond division) were entirely separate entities. The Glass-Steagall banking laws of 1932 kept it that way.

However, mid 1970’s bank regulators began issuing Glass–Steagall interpretations -that were upheld by courts- and permitted banks and their affiliates to engage in an increasing variety and amount of securities activities. After years of continual erosion of the Glass-Steagall firewall, eventually it disappeared.

This became the origin of the slow-motion explosion of investment banking. If you look back historically from today toward 1980 (ish) what you will find is this is also the ultimate fork where economic globalism began overtaking economic nationalism.

Banks could now make money, much more money, from investment divisions issuing paper financial transactions, not necessarily dependent on actual physical assets; or actual profits and loss. The transactions grew exponentially.

The bond market portion ultimately led to the ’07/’08 housing collapse, and derivative trading (collateralized debt obligations or CDO’s) generated trillions of paper dollars. Long before the ’08 collapse, business schools in 1980 began calling this the second economy (a false economy, or the invisible economy).

The second economy, which ultimately became the global economy, is also the Wall Street investment economy. Two divergent economies: Wall Street (paper), and Main Street (real).

There is no real property, real capital, real tangible assets in the Wall Street economy. The false economy is based on trades and financial transactions, essentially opinions. Paper shifts, and buys and sells based on predictions and bets (derivatives).  Insurance products create an even larger subdivision within the false economy as hedgers wagered on negative outcomes. The money wagered is exponential – some say more than a quadrillion currently floats.

♦ Now you realize, in hindsight, there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street). Investments, and the bets therein, needed to expand outside of the USA. hence, globalist investing.

However, a second more consequential aspect happened simultaneously.

a17b2-hip-replacement-recall-bribery

The politicians became more valuable to the Wall Street team than the Main Street team; and Wall Street had deeper pockets because their economy was now larger.

As a consequence Wall Street started funding political candidates and asking for legislation that benefited their interests.

When Main Street was purchasing the legislative influence the outcomes were beneficial to Main Street, and by direct attachment those outcomes also benefited the average American inside the real economy.

When Wall Street began purchasing the legislative influence, the outcomes became beneficial to Wall Street. Those benefits are detached from improving the livelihoods of main street Americans because the benefits are “global” needs. Global financial interests, investment interests, are now the primary filter through which the DC legislative outcomes are considered.

There is a natural disconnect.

♦ When former House Speaker Paul Ryan said: “Donald Trump and I come from two different wings of the party”, he is specifically pointing out this disconnect, yet few drew attention to it.  Yes, it is true – Trump represented the Main Street wing, Ryan represented the Wall Street wing.

Going back to the opening paragraphs. The news and opinion punditry never take the time to explain the root cause of the disassociation, because: A) Group one doesn’t understand it; and B) Group two is compensated to remain willfully blind, and to ignore it.

Yes, there was a fundamental ideological conflict within the 2016 election, and Wall Street fought Donald Trump hard.  However, for the first time in decades the American middle-class assembled and MAGA Main Street finally beat Wall Street.   Every single attack on Trump from that moment forth was created by this shockwave.  There were trillions at stake.

So that takes us to the next phase of the dynamic…. What did Trump see that politicians were intent on hiding?

WHAT WAS THE PROBLEM?

Traditional economic principles have revolved around the Macro and Micro with interventionist influences driven by GDP (Gross Domestic Product, or total economic output), interest rates, inflation rates and federally controlled monetary policy designed to steer the broad economic outcomes.

Additionally, in large measure, the various data points which underline macro principles are two dimensional. As the X-Axis goes thus, the Y-Axis responds accordingly… and so it goes…. and so it has historically gone.

trump convention 2

Traditional monetary policy centered upon a belief of cause and effect: (ex.1) If inflation grows, it can be reduced by rising interest rates. Or, (ex.2) as GDP shrinks, it too can be affected by decreases in interest rates to stimulate investment/production etc.  However, against the backdrop of economic Globalism -vs- economic Americanism, CTH is noting the two dimensional economic approach is no longer a relevant model. There is another economic dimension, a third dimension. An undiscovered depth or distance between the “X” and the “Y”.

I believe it is critical to understand this new dimension in order to understand Trump’s MAGAnomic principles, and the subsequent “America-First” economy he was building.

As the distance between the X and Y increases over time, the affect detaches – slowly and almost invisibly. I believe understanding this hidden distance perspective will reconcile many of the current economic contractions. I also predict this third dimension will eventually be discovered/admitted, and will be extremely consequential in the coming decade.

To understand the basic theory, allow me to introduce a visual image to assist comprehension. Think about the two economies, Wall Street (paper or false economy) and Main Street (real or traditional economy) as two parallel roads or tracks. Think of Wall Street as one train engine and Main Street as another.

The Metaphor – Several decades ago, 1980-ish, our two economic engines started out in South Florida with the Wall Street economy on I-95 the East Coast, and the Main Street economy on I-75 the West Coast. The distance between them less than 100 miles.

As each economy heads North, over time the distance between them grows. As they cross the Florida State line Wall Street’s engine (I-95) is now 200 miles from Main Street’s engine (traveling I-75).

As we have discussed – the legislative outcomes, along with the monetary policy therein, follows the economic engine carrying the greatest political influence. Our historic result is monetary policy followed the Wall Street engine.  THIS PART IS CRITICAL:

[…] there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).  [This important acceptance is just common sense.  The U.S. GDP is currently around $20 trillion, but the total valuation of the Wall Street stock market is much larger than our GDP.  Wall Street is more valuable than Main Street.  It is a simple albeit important reality to accept.] 

Investments, and the bets therein, needed to expand outside of the USA. Hence, globalist investing.

However, a second more consequential aspect happened simultaneously. The politicians became more valuable to the Wall Street team than the Main Street team; and Wall Street had deeper pockets because their economy was now larger.

As a consequence Wall Street started funding political candidates and asking for legislation that benefited their interests.

When Main Street was purchasing the legislative influence the outcomes were beneficial to Main Street, and by direct attachment those outcomes also benefited the average American inside the real economy.

When Wall Street began purchasing the legislative influence, the outcomes therein became beneficial to Wall Street. Those benefits are detached from improving the livelihoods of main street Americans because the benefits are “global” needs. Global financial interests, investment interests, are now the primary filter through which the DC legislative outcomes are considered.

There is a natural disconnect. (more)

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Here is an example of the resulting impact as felt by consumers:

♦ TWO ECONOMIES – Time continues to pass as each economy heads North.

Economic Globalism expands. Wall Street’s false (paper) economy becomes the far greater economy. Federal fiscal policy follows and fuels the larger economy. In turn the Wall Street benefactors pay back the politicians.

Economic Nationalism shrinks. Main Street’s real (traditional) economy shrinks. Domestic manufacturing drops. Jobs are off-shored. Main Street companies try to offset the shrinking economy with increased productivity (the fuel). Wages stagnate.

Now it’s 1990 – The Wall Street economic engine (traveling I-95) reaches Northern North Carolina. However, it’s now 500 miles away from Main Street’s engine (traveling I-75). The Appalachian range is the geographic wedge creating the natural divide (a metaphor for ‘trickle down’).

By the time the decade of 2000 arrives – Wall Street’s well fueled engine, and the accompanying DC legislative attention, influence and monetary policy, has reached Philadelphia.

However, Main Street’s engine is in Ohio (they’re now 700 miles apart) and almost out of fuel; there simply is no more productivity to squeeze.

From that moment in time, and from that geographic location, all forward travel is now only going to push the two economies further apart. I-95 now heads North East, and I-75 heads due North through Michigan. The distance between these engines is going to grow much more significantly now with each passing mile/month….

However, and this is a key reference point, if you are judging their advancing progress from a globalist vessel (filled with traditional academic economists) in the mid-Atlantic, both economies (both engines) would seem to be essentially in the same place based on their latitude.

From a two-dimensional linear perspective you cannot tell the distance between them.

It is within this distance between the two economies, which grew over time, where a new economic dimension has been created and is not getting attention. It is critical to understand the detachment.

Within this three dimensional detachment you understand why Near-Zero interest rates no longer drive an expansion of the GDP. The Main Street economic engine is just too far away to gain any substantive benefit.

Despite their domestic origin in NY/DC, traditional fiscal policies (over time) have focused exclusively on the Wall Street, Globalist economy. The Wall Street Economic engine was simply seen as the only economy that would survive. The Main Street engine was viewed by DC, and those who assemble the legislative priorities therein, as a dying engine, lacking fuel, and destined to be service driven only….

Within the new 3rd economic dimension, the distance between Wall Street and Main Street economic engines, you will find the data to reconcile years of odd economic detachment.

Here’s where it gets really interesting. Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of the economic inflation lag during the Trump administration.  Which, rather remarkably I would add, was a very interesting dynamic.

Trump was in charge… Now think about these engines doing a turn about and beginning a rapid reverse. GDP could, and as we saw did, expand quickly. However, any interest rate hikes (monetary policy) intended to cool down that expansion -fearful of inflation- would take a long time to traverse the divide.  That is exactly what happened.

Jerome Powell attempted to block the America First program with interest hikes; however, his efforts were futile because of the distance between the two economic engines.  President Trump was focused on assisting Main Street, and Powell’s attempts at impacting Main Street growth couldn’t impact Trump’s program.

During the Trump era we actually imported deflation because China and other nations were attempting to avoid tariff cost increases; so they devalued their currency.  The problem for them was that devaluation of their currency not only made their tariffed goods cheaper, it made the non tariff goods cost less.   As a result we were importing deflation from around the world.

Inflation on durable goods could not be significant until those nations stopped devaluing their currency.  Simultaneously, as international trade agreements were  renegotiated the originating nations of those products were forced into the same type of economic detachment described above.

The global manufacturing economies first responded to increases in export costs (tariffs etc.), by devaluing their currency; then they began driving their own productivity higher as an offset, in the same manner American workers went through in the past three decades. The manufacturing enterprise and the financial sector (connected to the consumer) remained focused on the pricing.

♦ Inflation on imported durable goods sold in America, while necessary, was -as we expected- ultimately minimal during this initial period of Trump policy.  Predictably, if we stuck with the program inflation would have expanded significantly as time progressed and off-shored manufacturing found less and less ways to be productive. Over time, imported durable good prices would increase – but it was going to come much later; and by that time our own industrial base would be re-established.

♦ Inflation on domestic consumable goods ‘would’ likely rise at a faster pace. However, as we saw U.S. wage rates were respond faster, naturally faster, than any monetary policy because inflation on fast-turn consumable goods became re-coupled to the ability of wage rates to afford them…. and the labor market was on fire.  Wages were factually growing faster than inflation during Trump’s term in office.

The monetary policy impact lag, caused by the distance between federal monetary action and the domestic Main Street economy, was -under the Trump policy- now working in our favor. That is, in favor of the middle-class.  Within the aforementioned distance between “X” and “Y”, a result of three decades traveled by two divergent economic engines, that was our new economic dimension …

What JoeBama 3.0 is proposing now is a return to the prior economic model where Wall Street multinationals benefit and the U.S. middle-class is pushed into their intentionally created “service driven economy”.

Hope that helps.