BIDENomics – Weekly Jobless Claims “Unexpectedly” Higher With 744,000 New Claims


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 8, 2021 | Sundance | 151 Comments

All of JoeBama’s economic policies mirror the Obama-Biden economic issues. Underline it; emphasize it; note the pattern.  The policies that intentionally held down the U.S. economy during the Obama administration are once again being duplicated.  It’s Déjà vu all over again.

JoeBama’s energy policy is crushing jobs in key regions where energy jobs are being lost in dramatic fashion.  Simultaneously the costs of energy, including gas, are skyrocketing.

The longer-term costs have not yet hit the consumer, but they will soon as inflation will jump dramatically while employment will continue to struggle because consumer demand will drop… The issues create a cascading cycle.

The Biden administration is hiding their actual policy impact by blaming COVID, but that’s not the issue that will hurt blue-collar workers in the longest term.  We are going back into the intentional disconnect I have talked about where the stock market (multinationals) will gain, but the U.S. worker economy will suffer lost jobs and lower wages. This dichotomy is by design and the corporate media economists never discuss it.

This reality is a big part of the reason why Pelosi and JoeBama needed to quickly pump money into the working class in order to avoid the pitchforks.  However, that $2,000 injection will not last and will be eaten up quickly by the larger and longer term Biden economic policy.

The U.S. economy, which is 70% dependent on consumer spending, is going to contract.  This contraction will be “unexpected” by the professional pundit class who check their stock holdings and smile.  However, this contraction will not be unexpected by the blue-collar workers who watch their paychecks shrink and their costs to live (electricity, fuel, food prices) increase beyond their earnings.

If you are a blue-collar or white-collar worker in a BLUE region or state, you will feel the impact first.  It is going to get very ugly, as noted by the disparity in the unemployment claims this week.  Weekly unemployment claims [Dept of Labor pdf here] tell the story.

(CNBC) – […] First-time claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected last week despite other signs of healing in the jobs market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

First-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000. The four-week moving average edged higher to 723,750. (link)

The negative results are continuing on a ‘Red State’ -vs- ‘Blue State’ dynamic as noted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting: “In February, the highest unemployment rates among the divisions were in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA, 10.9 percent, and New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ, 10.8 percent.”

For the weekly jobless claims, here’s the breakdown by state:

(Source pdf)

Do not dismiss these results as just bad policy.  There is also a strong ideological component as the Chicago Crew is driving the granular issues on a day-to-day basis.  The Obama team intentionally work to diminish the economy of the United States because their “fundamental change” requires it.   Joe Biden is an idiot and has no clue about what is structurally behind all the moves…. That’s why Obama installed Kamala Harris.

The professional republican class are corporatists; do not expect them to oppose any of these policies that undermine the U.S. economy and expand globalism.  The GOP is paid by the corporations to act stupid and go along.

The road to serfdom is paved with fraudulent intentions….

Archegos Capital Management Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Apr 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Archegos Capital was founded by the former Tiger Management equity analyst, Bill Hwang. Archegos Capital, the “home office” hedge fund owned by Bill Hwang, lost an unbelievable $110 billion in just five days. The strategy was the classic leverage using SWAPS. They never purchased shares of stocks in companies like ViacomCBS. Archegos Capital was entering into equity swaps with numerous different banks and investment banks in a similar manner to what would be called money laundering where we borrow from one bank to pay off another.

By engaging SWAPS, Archegos Capital never actually owned shares of the underlying stock. What they did was effectively leveraged themselves by as much as 500%, which would prove to be their undoing. The problem with such hedge funds is that they really take a personal view of the performance of the market going forward. This is ALWAYS the undoing of these hedge funds going back to Long-Term Capital Management which took a fundamental view that they would make a guaranteed fortune on the high interest of Russian debt and that bribes were being paid in the IMF that they thought would keep the loans going to Russia without end.

I cannot stress enough that ANY fund which is dominated by fundamental expectations that override quantitative models, should be AVOIDED like the plague. We are into a whole new world of finance which is moving in a counter-reaction to the Great Reset. There is NO QUESTION that the March 2020 crash was not only UNIQUE in history, it was clearly an assault that attempted to create another 2007-2009 economic contraction which would have made facilitated the Great Reset by the intentional destruction of the economy. They have had to rely upon the virus scare to accomplished what they had hoped would have be a far easier road.

What Gives Value to a Currency?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Martin, can you explain to me how a currency would sustain value for international trade if a country, like Canada (where I live), did what you suggested and stopped issuing debt and just printed money to level that was 5% – 10% of national GDP? would it depend on the attractiveness of what a country exports eg: Canada exports oil, lumber, crops like wheat/soy/canola, minerals – both precious and functional? What would happen to a country that didn’t have exports as a significant portion of it’s GDP? I am curious about how currencies would react to your restructuring plan that eliminated the need for a country to issue debt. Thanks for all your insights and theories. Very helpful.

Trapped in Canada with an egoistic misguided Prime Minister who doesn’t appear to like Canada (he keeps telling us how awful we are) or Canadians, he prefers spending time with global elites and is following their plan even though it damages Canada pretty significantly.
MB

ANSWER: Right now, every country spends more than it takes in. The deficits are funded by selling debt, which then competes against the private sector. The interest rates rise and fall on sovereign debt based upon the confidence from one week to the next. If they stopped borrowing, then the capital investment would turn to the private sector, creating more economic growth. If income taxes were eliminated, the economy would grow based upon innovation which is what it should be driven by.

The confidence in the currency would simply depend upon the strength of the economy, as was the case for Athens and Rome in ancient times. Their coinage was imitated because they were the dominant economies of their time. The value of a currency is the strength of its economy. It has NEVER been about its backing, which is purely a theory that arrived with paper money. Rome had no national debt. The value of the currency was more than its metal content. Here we have a gold aureus of Septimus Severus (193-211 AD) and the imitation in gold made in India. The imitation weighed more than the original. Imitations were made in the same quality of metal, so it proves that it was not a counterfeit but that a coin from the core economy possessed a greater value than the raw metal.

Just compare Russia, which has tremendous resources, against China, Japan, and Germany that had really no gold reserves. Russia did not expand its economy while the others boomed because of its people. The value of a currency is the TOTAL productive capacity of its economy — the work ethic of its people. Russia has not been able to rise substantially because it never fully embraced the idea of capitalism. They moved from communism to an oligarchy.

Understanding the Persecution of John Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Apr 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Mr. Armstrong…..this is a surprising (to me) summary, on John Law. Every piece I ever read about him, cast him as a complete scoundrel, yet you obviously write with admiration. Just another example of history depending on someone’s perspective. You never cease to surprise. And that’s good.

HS

REPLY: John Law was actually a brilliant man. His legacy is not so different from John Maynard Keynes. He advocated deficit spending ONLY in times of recession, but governments have spent relentlessly with deficits that never end. We call this “Keynesian economics” when in fact he never advocated such a system. Likewise, John Law never advocated what the French government did in creating the Mississippi Bubble.

It is true that John Law fled to Amsterdam, but this is when he studied real banking operations and saw that money was actually virtual. Because coins were counterfeited or their edges shaved, bank money was more valuable than coins. Once the coins were deposited, each had to be inspected. So the bank became a sort of guarantor of the validity of the coins. Here is an ancient coin from Lydia with numerous banking marks applied, verifying that the coin had been inspected by them before for the same reasons.

It was this first-hand observation that led John Law to see that money was actually virtual, whereby people preferred bank money to actual coins. John then returned to Scotland, where he published in 1705 his Money and Trade Considered, with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money. Law would later publish a second edition in 1720. He attempted to use his writing to convince the Scottish Parliament to adopt his ideas about money, but they declined, giving rise to the adage that a genius is never acknowledged in his native land (i.e. Columbus, Einstein to just mention two). Law had captured a glimpse of the virtual money supply as he was fascinated with the development of “bank money” that was displacing bullion in circulation.

Therefore, John Law has been hated by hard money people because they fail to understand that coins became second-best to actual paper money, for it relieved the problem of having to test every coin in a large transaction. Where Scotland refused to listen to John Law, France took him up on his observations. In 1716, John Law was invited by France to give it a shot. King Louis XIV (1643-1715) had squandered France’s resources on numerous wars and the construction of the Palace at Versailles. The idea of borrowing to fund wars and expansion had ruined the governments of men. Louis XIV had also adopted the theory that it was a divine right of kings to act as a dictator. This idea has persisted behind the curtain for centuries and dominates even American politics where you cannot sue the government without its permission.

For 54 years, Louis XIV worked daily for 8 hours, where he concerned himself with the very smallest of all details of state. He controlled everything from troop movements, infrastructure construction, court etiquette, and even theological disputes. He subordinated the nobles who had often instigated civil wars. Over the previous 40 years, there had been about 11 such civil wars.

The cost of this construction of his Palace at Versailles was far beyond the imagination. He effectively ran the country from Versailles and distanced himself from the people and Paris. Yet for all his extravagance, through the assistance of Jean-Baptiste Colbert (1619-1683), he was responsible more than anyone else for forging France into a more modern country.

John Law has been blamed for the Mississippi Bubble when, in fact, France was on the brink of its third bankruptcy when it contacted him. The government entered a partial default by consolidating its debt and changing its terms. Its new issue of billets d’etat was still required for more funding. The shortage of gold and silver coinage was plunging the economy into a depression. Law’s first proposal for a national bank issuing bank money was rejected. The second proposal to create a private bank was accepted and thus Banque Generale was established in May 1716.

The bank began to lend on its own shares, and the government intervened to support the price of its share by decree. Like the US government ordering the Federal Reserve to provide a floor to US bonds during World War II, likewise, the French government tried to maintain the value of the shares at 9,000 liver. Law begged the government to reduce the floor to 5,000, but they refused. They ended up blaming Law and arresting him no so unlike how the Democrats charged owners of S&Ls which failed when it was Congress who was changing the laws and creating a one-way market where everyone tried to sell.

Food Crisis of 2021 in Europe


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Apr 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

We are staring in the face of a serious food crisis in Europe as food prices rise continuously, and with further draconian COVID measures within the EU, they are bringing the food supply chains to a standstill. Our models have been warned that this 8.6-year cyclical wave into 2024 will be one of commodity inflation due to SHORTAGES rather than speculative demand. All the indications that the world is heading for a serious food price crisis are in play. The Food Price Index (FFPI) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) averaged 107.5 points in December 2020, an increase of 2.3 points (2.2%) compared to November 2020, which represents an increase for the seventh consecutive month.

With the exception of sugar, all sub-indices of the FFPI recorded slight gains in December, with the sub-index for vegetable oil again rising the most, followed by that for dairy products, meat, and cereals. For 2020 as a whole, the FFPI averaged 97.9 points, a three-year high, 2.9 points (3.1%) higher than in 2019, but still well below its 2011 high of 131.9 points. It is also interesting that the FFPI in 2002 was still 53.1 points. It only increased significantly from the financial crisis of 2007/08, only to then level off in the 90-point range. Since May 2020 it has increased by 18%.

Our models project that the upward trend in the FFPI will intensify going into 2024. With the coronavirus mutating, as we warned ALL viruses do, as such, we have these various strains from Africa, Brazil, UK, and even California, are inspiring politicians to use this as an opportunity to restrict the population even further. These corona measures have extended to the food supply chains, disrupting them just as we see in electronics. For example, the German Fruit Trade Association sees the supply of fruit and vegetables from abroad is at a substantial risk whereby imports are suspended. The reason is the tightening of the corona entry regulation by the federal government. The tightening of the lockdown in Europe is beginning to restrict the supply chains reducing the food supply

Collectibles Going Crazy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Collectibles Re-Posted Apr 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

This June, Sotheby’s will be auctioning off three of the greatest rarities in the stamp and coin field. The 1933 Double Eagle $20 gold coin, the unique British Guiana One-Cent Black on Magenta, and the unique Inverted Jenny 1918 Plate Block. This is truly an incredible offering from a single collector to have captured three of the rarest and most unique collectibles in history.

It is a bit unusual that a unique stamp from a less than the mainstream region has emerged as the rarest and sole-surviving example of the British Guiana One-Cent Magenta from 1856. It was last sold in 2014 at Sotheby’s for $9.48 million. While it was rediscovered by a 12-year-old schoolboy living in South America in 1873, perhaps due to fantastic marketing, it has emerged as one of the most important stamps in famous collections that have ever assembled. In 1873 L. Vernon Vaughan, a 12-year-old schoolboy living with his family in British Guiana found the stamp among a group of family papers bearing many British Guiana issues. The young philatelist would later sell the stamp for several shillings to another local collector. The British Guiana then entered the UK in 1878, and shortly after, it was purchased in Paris by Count Philippe la Renotière von Ferrary who many considered to be perhaps the greatest stamp collector in history. Then following the war, France seized Ferrary’s collection, which had been donated to the Postmuseum in Berlin, as part of war reparations due from Germany following World War I. The stamp was then sold in 1922 at auction when it was purchased by Arthur Hind, a textile magnate from New York, for its first auction-record price of $35,000. The stamp changed hands moving from the collections of the Australian engineer Frederick T. Small; then a consortium headed by Irwin Weinberg; then by John du Pont of the famous chemical company. Du Pont paid $935,000 for the stamp in a 1980 auction, before it was last sold at auction to Weitzman for the record-setting price of $9.48 million.

Interestingly, a tradition emerged where previous owners of the British Guiana signed the back of the stamp. Weitzman added his own personal mark to the reverse of the stamp inscribing his initials “SW” along with a line drawing of a stiletto shoe as a nod to his legacy in fashion.

This 1933 Double Eagle ($20 gold coin) is the only example that may be legally owned by an individual. It was the coin acquired by King Farouk of Egypt. Stuart Weitzman purchased the coin at a Sotheby’s/Stack’s auction in 2002 for a world record price of US$7.59 million, nearly doubling the previous record. The Director of the United States Mint signed a Certificate of Monetization that, in return for twenty dollars, authorized the issuance of this single example.

In August 2005, the US Mint announced the recovery of ten additional stolen 1933 double eagle gold coins from the family of Philadelphia jeweler/coin dealer Israel Switt, who was the illicit coin dealer identified by the Secret Service as a party to the theft who admitted selling the first nine double eagles that were recovered. Israel Switt had many contacts and friends within the Philadelphia Mint. As the story goes, the Secret Service found that only one man, George McCann, had access to the coins at the time and served prison time for similar embezzlement in 1940. Israel Switt somehow obtained the stolen 1933 double eagles. One theory is that McCann swapped the previous year’s Double Eagles for the 1933 specimens prior to melting, thereby making sure the count was correct. The US mint began striking Double Eagles on March 15, 1933. Roosevelt’s executive order to ban gold was not finalized until April 5. Therefore, on March 6, 1933, the Secretary of the Treasury ordered the Director of the Mint to pay gold only under a license issued by the Secretary, and the United States Mint cashier’s daily statements do not reflect that any 1933 Double Eagles were paid out.

In September 2004, the claimed owner, Joan Switt Langbord, heir to Israel Swift, tried to sell the 10 coins and they had to be surrendered to the Secret Service. In July 2005, the coins were authenticated by the United States Mint after working with the Smithsonian Institution, as being genuine 1933 double eagles. Joan Switt Langbord claimed to have found them in a box and she went to court to have them returned. On October 28, 2010, US court ruled and the issue went to trial in July 2011. On July 20, 2011, after a ten-day trial, a jury ruled unanimously in favor of the United States government and Lanford appealed. At first, the Court of Appeals overruled the jury, but then it went En Banc and the Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the government. The Langbords appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which on April 17th, 2017 denied certiorari.

Hetty Green’s son, Edward Howland Robinson Green (1868-1936), was not so frugal and spent $3  million on coins and stamps. He was an avid collector and bought the famous sheet of 100 inverted airmail stamps in 1918, paying $20,000. The last time this Plate Block appeared on the market was 16 years ago when it sold at auction for $2.97 million.

Meanwhile, the classic Ferraris from the 1980s have nearly doubled in price over the past year.

The End of Paper Money – the Digital Revolution


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Mar 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The assumption in governments has always been that WE ARE THE PROBLEM – not them! They have really believed that if they could tax the underground economy they would have balanced budgets. We all know that in reality, no matter how much money they collect, they will always spend more. This idea that digital currency will wipe out crime is rather absurd. I was talking to a young person who buys their weed, like so many these days. They make a phone call, it is dropped off in their mailbox, and they pay by some cash transfer application. So they never even see the person anymore. So the move toward digital transactions has not eliminated the underground economy, it has actually improved it making it more efficient.

Meanwhile, the criminals have to learn now how to code in order to hack into systems. It seems that this trend is forcing criminals to become much more professional in their endeavors.

Dorsey Moves into Banking as Promised to Overthrow Trump


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 3, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I thought you were wrong on Bitcoin and that it was a store of value. I can see now that it is only a trading vehicle as you have said. But what made me write to you is I just read that Dorsey is opening up an online bank. You got that right too. It is interesting when I read you and compare to others, you are the one who comes out correct in the end.

My humble apology for being a doubting, Thomas.

GP

REPLY: I know for a fact they have allowed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to exist in order to condition people into accepting the end of paper money. I cannot understand people who think I am wrong and somehow cryptocurrencies will overthrow the dollar and governments. Really? Does anyone really believe that governments will just relinquish power willingly?

We are headed into a wave of inflation, but one that is constructed on shortages. One need only look at the systemic problems behind the shortages created by a planned economy during the communist era. A goods shortage was the norm. Those under communism were confronted with chronically empty store shelves. When the shelves were replenished on rare occasions, there were long lines that would form outside the stores for blocks. I had a Russian girl who worked for me as a programmer. She said the number one problem coming to America was having to make decisions in the store. She said they had only one type of toilet paper. There are so many here. She didn’t know how to buy anything for each purchase involved a choice and decision.

Even in China, there were ration coupons that became the norm. Just about everything was rationed. This is what takes place when the government is in control of production be it directly, or through what we are beginning to see, outrageous regulations – lockdowns which are hailed by Schwab’s World Economic Forum.

This is NOT really a question of I TOLD YOU SO. This is not a contest of my opinion v someone else. I really have to wonder if some of those mouthing these absurd forecasts are not being made as deliberate misinformation to move people toward a digital currency on behalf of the powers behind the curtain. They defy all reason and show either sublime stupidity or cunning devious misinformation to manipulate society to pull off this Great Reset.

I warned back on January 21, 2021, that BigTech sees the power to overthrow the banks. These powers have declared that they want everyone in the banking system worldwide to end paper money, which is over 1 billion people (just read the IMF). This is why Dorsey, Facebook, YouTube, and Google along with Microsoft were blocking Trump and funneling money to the Democrats who bribed them with the dream of controlling international banking. If governments take Schwab’s solution and default on all its debt, then they NO LONGER NEED THE BANKERS to sell their bonds. Branch banking will come to an end and these people think they will move to a controlled economy with no private debt. They are out of their minds!

I know what I am talking about. I have shaken the hand of Schwab. Have any of these people claiming Bitcoin will overthrow the dollar ever talked to anyone in authority?  I have met with board members of the IMF. There are those who are so desperate to convince people not to listen to me because they are part of the entire scam against We the People. I have been approached many times to join these globalists. They preach the Fourth Industrial Revolution is coming, but post comments on YouTube to try to prevent people from looking at Socrates because it forecasts their demise. Sorry Schwab, but Socrates says you fail!

Schwab and his cohorts think locking us all down and destroying the economy and production is a good thing. I cannot see how ANYONE takes a position against me who is not really working against our freedom and human rights. They are so desperate to stop people looking at Socrates or the media to ever cover what Socrates is doing, all in their quest to conquer the world.

So it is not I TOLD YOU SO, this is not a matter of opinion. This is a serious global effort to redesign the world economy and Socrates stands in their way.