Climate Change & Commodities


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.

WP

ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.

The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.

When will Niagara Falls Completely Freeze?


It has been a bitterly cold season. Niagara Falls became a winter wonderland as frigid temperatures cause the falls to turn to ice. This is not so rare as people claim. In this 1911 photo of the Great Freeze, you can still see water flowing, but minimal and nowhere near the normal volume flow (hundreds of thousands of gallons per second) that we see in summer. Niagara Falls was a famous tourist spot. I remember as a child my parents traveling there to see the splendor. It use to be a big honeymooners’ destination before air travel. Historically, Niagara Falls does “freeze” but it is extremely rare to “completely” freeze.

The Falls have a lot of ice on them today during this bitterly cold winter. But they have not reach the historic cold period at the beginning of the 20th century. Still, cyclically speaking, it is right on time. The cold we have witnessed so far is ideally going to peak probably around 2023. Perhaps at that point in time we will see the falls also almost freeze completely. The only recorded incident of the Niagara Falls completely freezing so NO WATER flowed appeared to be 1848. That was the only documented incident on record when Niagara Falls was frozen completely during March of 1848. It was the Buffalo Express Newspaper that reported the shocking complete freeze was caused by ice damming at the mouth of Lake Erie. Our model indicates that if we see colder temperature BEYOND2023, then cyclically the peak will unfold in 2037.

 

The Clash Between Normal People & The Global Warming Crowd – Green Extremist Overlords


There is an undertone lurking behind the rise of Donald Trump in the US, the Brexiteers in the UK, Marine Le Pen in France, political re-alignments in Denmark, and the election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Additionally, there is the change in governments in Mexico, Malaysia, and the civil unrest in Romania. They are all joined by the sudden rise of the “Yellow Vests” in Paris, who are spreading internationally. The combination of these events show that an increasing number of people are fed up with who many call the “Green Overlords.” They have been out to reduce population and the living standard of the average person. There is a general rise in civil unrest, which is driven by decades of raising taxes on the tax payers and destroying the retirement of people who worked their entire lives. The middle class has been battered by the Green movements who are sheltered, enjoying the air conditioned and heated offices of the UN and Greenpeace.

These Green elites have become known as the “Green Overlords” and have been supported by people like Al Gore, the Clintons, Obamas, corporate media pretending to be the free press, and of course Hollywood. In Europe, they have imposed taxes per head on cows and a 2020 deadline to move to electric cars. Their European champions have been Merkel in Germany; Prince Charles, former PM David Cameron, the BBC in Britain, and Macron in France. In Canada, Trudeau imposed a $1,000 global warming tax per home/apartment. Many have seen being Green as a justification for more tax revenue.

This group of Green Overlords has created a powerful global network to wage an endless war on the on the combustion engine as well as coal and nuclear power. They are reversing the basic, cheap, reliable electricity that the entire world has relied upon. They have attacked farmers and fishermen in a real effort to reduce the food supply in hopes of reducing population growth. They take their theory from mice who are known to have fewer offspring when the food supply declines. They have waged a war to tax the diesel vehicles. All of this has reduced jobs, and then politicians believe that allowing the importation of “refugees” will increase the tax rolls. They have waged a war and conquered schools and universities to instill their propaganda in the minds of the younger generation. They even created environmental degrees for jobs that do not exist. Their global warming dogma has taken over the government, the media, and education to push their agenda. The rise of the Yellow Vests is clearly a direct confrontation against this Green agenda.

Life Threatening Winter Storms


Parts of Canada could become the coldest spot on the planet with a winter storm coming with crazy frigid temperatures with wind chill factors in the -40oC level for some. This going to be really dangerous. Quite frankly, the human body was NOT designed to handle conditions like that. This is really very dangerous cold and not hype. Your eyes can actually freeze. Anyone who has ever been in real cold will notice that in cold weather notes your eyes will tear up, which is your body’s natural defense trying to reduce the freezing point. You better start regularly blinking your eyes to prevent them from freezing and going blind.

While your eyes can’t freeze solid, your extremities can. That includes feet, fingers, and toes. They can actually freeze to the point that the can even fall off your body, or else needing to be amputated. The human body is designed to maintain a core temperature of 98.6oF (37oC) exactly! Any deviation from that causes serious problems. When the body temperature begins to drop, that’s when hypothermia sets in. The statistics in Canada show that more than 80 people die from extreme cold, according to Environment Canada. 

People who have died from hypothermia seem to lose brain function and become completely confused. They begin taking off their clothes in their final death throes apparently assuming they are hot rather than cold.

If the migration of the North Pole is contributing to this extremely cold weather nobody really knows. We are definitely moving into Solar Minimum. Our greatest risk at this stage in the game is major volcanic eruptions that throw such much debris into the atmosphere we end up with a volcanic winter

Global Warming is All About PRESSURE


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Isn’t Venus much hotter because its atmosphere is almost 100% CO2?

GH

ANSWER: No. The atmosphere of Venus is extremely dense. At the surface it is over 800 degrees, this is true. However, the pressure at the surface is the same as if you were 3000 feet under water. It is the density of the atmosphere that creates the heat, not even the fact that it is closer to the sun. Additionally, the nights are about the same temperature as the days because there is almost no tilt to the planet as we have, which creates the seasons. Venus is actually hotter than Mercury which is the closest planet to the sun. Mercury varies between  -279 Fahrenheit (-173 Celsius) at night to 801 Fahrenheit during the day. Mercury lacks the atmosphere that helps to cloak a planet, keeping heat from leaking into space. Without an atmosphere, Mercury loses a great deal of heat into space, rather than sharing with its night side. This is why its temperature varies more than any other planet in our system.

A simple example of pressure is the difference between a diesel and a gas engine. The diesel engine functions by compressing the gas so it ignites without the need for a spark plug that is necessary for a gasoline engine. It is PRESSURE that creates the heat. That is basic physics. Take plastic bubble wrap. To burst a bubble you apply PRESSURE. The bubble wrap will pop regardless of the gas inside be it oxygen or CO2. The greater the pressure, the hotter it will be at the surface.

Magnetic Poles Are Moving Rapidly as Never Before – Precursor to a Pole Shift?


The magnetic poles on the Sun flip about every 11 years. Since nobody lives there, we really have no idea what the effects would be. On Earth, the major pole shifts that are permanent tend to be in the 720,000 years range. So once again, there was nobody around to record what really happens. I have previously warned that the North Magnetic Pole was moving away from Canada and headed in the opposite direction toward Europe.

For most of the 1900s, the physical North Pole was moving westwards around 10 cm each year towards Canada’s Hudson Bay. Then all of a sudden, in 2000, it changed direction moving 75 degrees eastwards and began moving east at a rate of around 17 cm annually. Nobody has ever witnessed such a change. This is completely unprecedented! Now the North Magnetic Pole is moving rapidly and erratically. Today it is now moving at a pace of 55km PER YEAR!!!!! This is creating a real crisis because the entire world GPS system was based upon a fairly stationary locate for the North Pole.

The North Pole was previously in Hudson Bay about 54,000 until 48,000 years ago at 60 N and 83 W. Perhaps it is like lightning and just never strikes twice in the same spot. Now it is instead moving toward the British Isles according to NASA. Magnetic poles are defined in different ways but are commonly understood as positions on the Earth’s surface where the geomagnetic field is vertical. These north and south positions, called dip poles, do not need to be opposite of each other. In 1831, James Clark Ross located the north dip pole position in northern Canada. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) tracked the North Magnetic Pole, which is slowly drifting across the Canadian Arctic, by periodically carrying out magnetic surveys to reestablish the Pole’s location from 1948 to 1994. An international collaboration, led by a French fundraising association, Poly-Arctique, and involving NRCan, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, and Bureau de Recherche Geologique et Miniere, added two locations of the North Magnetic Pole in 2001 and 2007. The most recent survey determined that the Pole is moving approximately north-northwest at 55 km per year.

First of all, there are two types of pole shifts. While the MAJOR pole shifts appear to be 720,000-year cycles, there are also what are known as excursions. The last “excursion” took place around 41,000 years ago and it was also associated with an Ice Age. This excursion was, in fact, a Global Event from all the data and these tend to be just short-term flips that are not permanent. Factoring in that data with the broader more permanent reversals warns that we are potentially in line for such a major event and it may, in fact, line up with the Economic Confidence Model come 2032. This could be an explanation for the extremely cold winters since 2015.

A pole shift can be far more rapid than previously anticipated. I believe that people prefer to assume uniformity rather than a catastrophe. A stalagmite-based paleomagnetic record of the post-Blake excursion reveals details of repeated polarity drifts have occurred during periods of low geomagnetic field intensity at 100 thousand years before present. One surprisingly abrupt centennial reversal transition occurred in 144,000 provides unprecedented evidence that raises fundamental questions about the speed of geomagnetic field shifts. Such rapid polarity changes could severely affect satellites and human society in the future if the current geomagnetic field intensity continues to decrease. This sudden rapid movement of 55km a year may be a warning of such a pending shift becoming imminent.

We know that 120,000 years ago the North Pole was in the territory of Yukon in Canada at 63 N and 135 W; then it went to the Greenland Sea at 72 N and 10 E about 84,000 years ago, moved from 54,000 until 48,000 years ago and settle in the middle of Hudson Bay at 60 N and 83 W; it rested there for 30,000 years, then wandered once again from about 18,000 to about 12,000 years ago when it came to its present location. However, there are actually four poles, which most people are never taught in school. Former NASA engineer Maurice Chatelain (1988) argued that during the Hudson Bay period (48,000 to 18,000 years ago) the equator was in fact 30 degrees further south in South America. It most likely passed through central Chile and Argentina. Antarctica was most likely free of all ice. That could explain the existence of the map of Antartica without ice that has been found.

This rapid movement is striking alarm bells everywhere from a navigational perspective. During the past 150 years, the pole shift has been in the same direction. The most astonishing fact is that since 2000, the magnetic North Pole has shifted nearly half of the total distance of the past 50 years! In other words, the pole shift has apparently picked up speed so much so that they have had to re-calibrate airports and their GPS signals so planes can still find them. This rapid movement of 55km a year can really alter transportation.

But the directional change is even more alarming for Europe. The summer in Europe barely saw many real scorching hot days but the winters are getting colder. In 2012, even the waterways in Venice were icing over. Germany relies upon its canal system to move goods and agriculture. In 2012, the canals froze. The canals in the Netherlands were not freezing during the winter during the global warming period. That changed in 2009. Hamburg was frozen to the bone in 2010.

They are calling 2017 the Year without an Arctic Summer.  The Greenland Ice Sheet gained near-record amounts of ice. Very little melting has occurred this summer. The Canadian Coast Guard reported that the Atlantic Ice in Canada was increasing in the winter of 2018. The extreme cold temperatures and the high winds have been combining to expand the Arctic ice this season. There is a natural cycle to this and they have reported that the seasonal “freeze up” is occurring three to four weeks ahead of normal and above the 30-year average. This winter is once again extremely cold. It has only been in the 60/70s here in Tampa and the same is true in Abu Dhabi. If next year 2019/2020 is colder still, this will be the fourth year and at then we would decline at a bare minimum very steeply into 2021/2022, where our models on markets are predicting a shocking event.

The migration of the magnetic poles could be a major factor in creating these cold winters. If the former NASA engineer Maurice Chatelain is correct that the equator was in fact 30 degrees further south in South America between 48,000 and 13,000 years ago passing through central Chile and Argentina with Antarctica being ice-free, then I guess I was wrong and did not move far enough south.

We do know that the Sahara Desert was once lush, tropical, and full of animals 6,000 years ago. There is debated over the true origin of the Sphinx in Egypt. Many consider that it pre-dates the Egyptian culture dating as far back as 10,000BC when a Lion would have faced the constellation, Leo. If Chatelain is correct, then perhaps the movement in the pole also altered the climate dramatically sending the equator 30 degrees lower. It is not likely that we will all just die because of such a pole shift. There are no mass distinctions that have been discovered less than 50,000 years ago. Perhaps the dinosaurs were the victims of a pole shift that caused a volcanic winter or there was an asteroid that hit the Earth according to abundant geological evidence that was about 10 km (6 miles) in diameter and struck the Earth about 65 million years ago. This probably killed roughly 3/4 of all the species that existed at that time. So barring a strike by an asteroid, a pole shift does not appear to create a mass extinction.

Prof Don Easterbrook Crashes the Global Warming Party


Published on Nov 19, 2017

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Professor Emeritus Don Easterbrook’s eye-opening talk to the Washington State Senate committee on Climate Change 26/3/2013. This is a classic! Don J. Easterbrook Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University crashes the party of the Global Warmists! Patreon https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly Category Science & Technology License Creative Commons Attribution license

Europe Inundated by Snow Down to Greece & Harvard Study Shows Oceans Are Getting Colder


This winter is once again extremely brutal in Europe. Extremely heavy snow has fallen as far south as Greece in the range of even 3 to 5 feet in various places. This is the third year of extreme cold in Europe which has been fueling more resentment about global warming taxes. Once again, Europe has been thrown into economic chaos for much of the region is not able to cope with snow lacking the historical experience.

Meanwhile, scientists have revealed that the oceans are still getting colder at deeper levels in a slow-moving trend that was set in motion by the last Little Ice Age. The idea that the oceans have been retaining the heat so that is why the planet has not warmed up as forecast 30 years ago flies in the face of those ideas as well.

Climate Change & the Blame Game has been going on Since the 1890s


COMMENT: I really get annoyed by people who say well it has been warm here so what happens elsewhere is irrelevant. They are idiots and cannot see the whole and just want to blame humans for everything. I can see how our situation is hopeless when it comes to climate change.

All the best

JS

ANSWER: Very true. I got one email saying even though the death toll in Wales is double that of the previous year from extreme cold, it was warmer here in Canada so you are just wrong about everything. Such people are unable to divorce themselves from their bias. We have a serious climate change unfolding that cyclically is on time. Ever since 1895, the media has alternated reporting between global cooling and warming scares and many times they have even been overlapping. Here are accounts from the press reporting both global cooling and warming between 1955 and 1961. From 1895 until the 1930s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950s until the 1970s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.

Then we have the diehard Global Warming crowd who refuse to ever consider that just maybe they may be wrong and are doing exactly the same thing I encountered when doing research on the Great Depression. Back then, the claimed that the DUST BOWL permanently destroyed the “Middle West” and that all the soil blew away so there would NEVER AGAIN be farming in America. ALL the government “expert advice” blamed the catastrophe on mechanized agriculture because tractors had been in use for only a couple of decades. They theorized how the tractors caused the Dust Bowl and this became very popular. The government even put out films calling it the Plow that Broke the Plains. But the old-time farmers remembered the droughts of the 1890s. There had been 10 years of rain in the Midwest and the forecasts at that time saw no change in sight.

The mechanism of plowing increased the yield dramatically and this contributed to the decline in employment in the Agricultural industry from 70% of the Civil Workforce in 1850 to 40% by 1900 and then 3% by 1980. The price of what declined dramatically from World War I into 1932. Severe drought hits the midwestern and southern plains. As the crops die, the ‘black blizzards” began which is more commonly known to history as the Dust Bowl. It lasted for 8.6 years until the rains returned in 1939.

By December 1935, there was a meeting in Pueblo, Colorado, where experts then estimate that 850,000,000 tons of topsoil had blown off the Southern Plains during the course of one year. They forecast that should the drought continue, the total area affected would increase from 4,350,000 acres to 5,350,000 acres in the spring of 1936. They warned that the damage was permanent. To try to intervene, the C.H. Wilson of the Resettlement Administration proposed buying up 2,250,000 acres and retiring it from cultivation.

In February 1936, the mass migration out of the Midwest created what were called hobos without money or a job. The Los Angeles Police Chief James E. Davis sent 125 policemen to patrol the borders of Arizona and Oregon to keep “undesirables” out of California. As a result, the American Civil Liberties Union sued the city. Even the Democrats forcible deported Mexicans during the Dust Bowl. The Mexican Repatriation was a mass deportation of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans from the United States which went into 1936. The estimates of how many were forcibly deported range from 400,000 to 2,000,000. Yet, it was a sort of ethnic cleansing for an estimated 60% of those deported were actually born in the United States.

Climate Change is a natural event because everything has a cycle even weather. It was the 8.6-year drought that created the Dust Bowl, not tractors. Here we are once again blaming soccer moms driving their kids to school for climate change once again.

As always – facts mean nothing. The majority of people lack the ability to be unbiased. They simply believe what they want to believe and will never change.

 

Jet Stream Exaggerations


 

We have to understand that the Jetstream itself is extremely dynamic. It has been dipping very low and as I reported last winter, it even snowed in Tallahassee in northern Florida for the first time since the Blizzard of 1899. This is causing some very diverse outcomes. In Sweden that had one of the hottest summers on record. I was in Bavaria in August and likewise, it was extremely hot. The buildings generally did not have air conditioning because they never needed it.

On the other hand, in Ukraine where it is usually very hot at that time of year, it remained very cool. In North America, it all depends where you are. Some parts of Canada is warm, and others are unusually cold. The Jet Stream is becoming very exaggerated in its dips. This is why last year the crops froze in Spain creating a shortage of vegetables in Europe. Of course, we have the diehard people who claim just because where they live it is warm so it must be global warming and anyone who disagrees with that are just wrong. They refuse to even look around the world that exists beyond their front doo