Tag Archives: March 14 2022

May 24 2024

My Forecast from 10 Years Ago


Posted originally on May 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Economic Confidence Model Public to Private Wave 1929 2032

In an interview on May 11, 2014, I explained on USAWatchdog that confidence always outweighs reality. “It’s basically what you believe. There have been all sorts of studies on fundamentals that say if interest rates go up, stocks go down.  It is simply not true.  The stock market has never peaked with interest rates twice in history.  If you think you are going to make 25% in the market, you’ll pay 10% interest; but if you really think the market is only going to go up 10%, you won’t pay 10%.  So, it’s always the difference between what you believe and reality.”

The people have lost all confidence in government. There were rumors of a “soft landing” from the Fed, but the situation can no longer be controlled by the central bank. Washington maintains that everything is stable as banks continue to fail and inflation rages on. There can be no price stability when war is at play. Government spending has reached a new high, as have taxes which are not counted in any major data report. I explained in 2014 that great empires all come crashing down after piling on massive debt. People believe hyperinflation would cause such a scenario, but debt is the major player. Once the government accumulates enormous debt, it targets its citizens aggressively. That is what we are seeing today.

So where should you put your money? I said in 2014: “One of the number one questions I get all the time is where do I put my money?  If the banks can just take whatever they want now, there will be bail-ins rather than bail-outs. People are afraid.  What do you do with the cash?  So, people are buying things like real estate and stocks, just trying to get money out of the banking system.” Smart money has been trying to escape the banks for years. There was no incentive until very recently to park money in the banks due to artificially low rates. The hunt for taxation is causing people to flee from the banks. The downturn in government trust has caused everyone to run from government debt for fear that it will not be repaid.

Sixth Wave Economic Confidence Model ECM 309.6

I also explained that the Fed would only bail out deposits and had been asking institutions to change their models. “Everybody knows I advise some of the big institutions around, and I can tell you that they have told me directly that the Fed went to them and told them they will not be bailed out for proprietary trading.  It will be only on deposits.  That’s it,” I stated. “The Fed has been going around telling them, ‘hey, you better change your models.’  They don’t think it will be a flight to quality as it was before.  You buy the long-term (Treasuries), and that saves you.  They don’t think that’s going to happen.  It’s quite interesting. . . . It looks like the long-term (Treasury bonds) is going to end up starting to rise.”

Sound familiar with the current situation? People have moved from the public sector into the private sector. We are well into a private wave, and the public will not go back to the public sector for many years to come. By that time, the government will have transformed into a new model that is far different from what we have today. My warning from 10 years ago was derived from the computer models, who never relies on mere opinion and are unable to factor in bias.

When I say that the computer is honing in on a new target or date, often, we must simply look at what unfolds on that target to understand the full forecast. We are waiting for the CONFIRMATION. The computer will give us that signal and we just have to go with the flow. It may be worse than trying to give a 5-year-old cough medicine. Yes, it tastes horrible, but it is necessary for the cure. The majority will not be able to make that transition thanks to their preconceived ideas and preconditioning. Many pilots who flew prop planes could never fly a jet because they could not make that transition to faster travel requiring quicker reaction times. This is the type of transition we face. We just have to abandon all prejudice and go with the markets. May 7 marked a major shift in the geopolitical landscape that ensures major conflicts with both Russia and China are on the horizon. I trust the trends in motion to forecast the future. As they say, the trend is your friend.

May 20 2024

Correlations Explained


Posted originally on May 20, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Everything Connected

It is crucial to understand correlations as EVERYTHING fluctuates! There is absolutely nothing that remains constant. You MUST understand that correlations are NOT one for one, and often show changes in advance of turns. It is a lot to keep track of but this is why I try to post a global view to help you see the world around you. It is a necessary way of thinking to survive the future of our own follies.

When I was trading going into the high in interest rates at the Fed in 1981, each time the Fed raised rates the markets reacted less and less. When the final rate hike came, the markets moved UP, not down, showing that the trend was over. Interest rates DO NOT peak and bottom with the markets. There are advances and lags.

It is very frustrating to always try to sort out misconceptions created by analysts and the talking heads on TV. Just do a simple correction by comparing two charts. The DOW bottomed in March 1980. Gold peaked on January 21, 1980. The Fed kept pushing rates higher into May 1981. The Dow rallied with the last year of rising interest rates.

CBDUSA M 3 25 2018 Fed Discount Rate Fed Funds

I stated many years ago that real estate would RISE with the first uptick because people would ANTICIPATE rates rising so they better rush to lock it in now. The people with interest rates under 3% lucked out, but some simply understood the trend. They do not throw in the towel on the first uptick. They disregard the nonsense spouted out by the talking heads on TV that create false images of why markets are moving as they do.

I noted to pay attention to rates in Europe. Germany was able to sell short-term debt at NEGATIVE yields. Why? Because Europeans are moving money in preparation for the collapse in the debts of Southern Europe. Some think if the Euro cracks they will end up with Deutsche Marks or Swiss. This is the same driving force sending money to high end real estate and the Dow. It is the MOVEMENT of capital that causes these trends and each confirms the other. It cannot be one thing in isolation.

CALLMONY MA

Corrections DO NOT work one-for-one. Here, we see the call money rates from the NYSE. It would be nice if it were as stupid as the talking heads make it sound. We have tested every possible relationship. We have employed more computing power and capital to figure out what makes the world tick than anyone ever. That is why the NY banks & government want us to shut up. Just look at this chart. The stock market DOES NOT even peak with the same empirical level of interest rates with each crisis. It would be nice to say if rates hit 8% the market will peak. Sorry – that will NEVER happen. It is the spread between expectations of profit and the empirical level of interest rates.

It is not that I manipulate the world economy. We just spent a great deal of money to deconstruct it. Guess what – the world is not flat. There is a whole new way of economics and looking at how the world actually functions. Eureka! Try observing instead of dictating how the world should operate to support some hair-brain theory. Those who want me to shut up because what we discovered does not fit with their theory or belief that the government can control the economy by regulation are no different than those who killed Bruno or imprisoned Galileo for life.

Knowledge advances by observation. Stagnation emerges when people try to suppress advances because they want to remain in control. The Goldbug press refuses to quote me just like the NY establishment press that supports the bankers. They both have self-interests to support and hate anyone who says they are wrong. There is no difference from the Pravada of the old Communist Party that never acknowledged opposition.

May 17 2024

Revelations – Are We In The End Days? 1,000-Year Cycle


Posted originally on May 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

End Of World Aethelred2 1000AD English Silver Penny

Various cultures and religions have been concerned about the end of time looming throughout history. Aethelred II (978-1016 AD) was so convinced the world was about to end in 1000 AD that he removed his portrait from the coinage and placed the Christian symbol of the lamb on it. The world did not end, and he restored his portrait the year after. Why is there this need to constantly scream the end is near, which seems to plague Western society?

Turn the economy down, and you will find major upheavals in religion. To whatever extent our model may align with religion or even astrology, rest assured that neither are inputs into Socrates to make forecasts. So, I have found these prophecies of various religions interesting.

Marx Religion Opium of Masses

In our Western culture, we think everything is linear. I always found it interesting how Revelations 20, clearly lays out a cycle.

[7] And when the thousand years are expired, Satan shall be loosed out of his prison,

[8] And shall go out to deceive the nations which are in the four quarters of the earth, Gog and Magog, to gather them together to battle: the number of whom is as the sand of the sea.

The Bible describes a cycle. Some have interpreted this cycle as 6,000 years up, 1,000 down, and then it repeats. These are interesting times no doubt. Are they Biblical in proportion? No one knows the answer to that. But many always preach doom and gloom right down to Y2K and the Mayan calendar ending. They cling to the latest topic and go. It was the year 1,000 AD when the Last Judgment was to take place, according to popular conjecture. It did not. But it did start the pilgrimage movement from Europe to the Holy Land, and that led to the creation of the Knights Templar to protect the pilgrims. It ushered in a rebirth of trade that created merchant banking and then sovereign debt. This also sparked the Crusades. So, even wrong interpretations can have profound impacts.

Crusades

One indeed begins to wonder what will happen to the human race. Technology keeps on advancing with greater and greater power, either for good or for destruction, as the government desires to eliminate all rights, privileges, and immunities. But this is part of a constantly repeating cycle.

Government is the enemy of the people. Historically, it has always been. They seek only one thing—power over others. They will do anything to retain that power. They cannot sleep at night worrying that someone has something they want or is doing something they do not approve of. This is part of a long cyclical process where government is always the great evil empire, for it ultimately always seeks to dominate the people regardless of what form it has taken.

If we take this 1000 years to be literal, this is by no means the end of the world. Yes, it may be a Great Reset, but our computer shows they will NOT win, and we are headed into the rising tide of civil unrest around the globe, which is revolutions and the prospects of international war.

Marx ten commandments socialism

Then there is the passage from Peter about a day being like 1,000 years. All I can say is the computer is non-biased and non-religious, and it simply looks at all the patterns throughout history. People will act the same way no matter what century they live in because human nature has never changed since Cain murdered Abel out of jealousy. We have advanced technologically but not emotionally.

Peter 3:8–9 reads:

“But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day. The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. He is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance.”

Moses_with_the_Ten_Commandments

Even when we look at the Old Testament, we find cycles abound. Following the Ten Plagues to hit Egypt, Moses led the Exodus of the Israelites out across the Red Sea. However, After 40 years of wandering in the desert, Moses died within sight of the Promised Land on Mount Nebo. Moses did not make it to the promised land, so they wondered for about half the duration of an ECM wave. The fact that the prophets understood a year as 360 days is well established and can be seen in the prophecies of Daniel and Revelation as seen in the use of “time, times and half a time” (i.e. 1+2+0.5=3.5), “1,260 days” and “42 months.”

There is an agreement among Christianity and Islam that the end days will be similar. In Jewish eschatology, they are concerned with events that will happen at the end of the day. This includes the ingathering of the exiled diaspora, the coming of a Jewish Messiah, the afterlife, and the revival of the dead Tzadikim. Interestingly, on the slopes of the Mount of Olives, which I visited in the early ’80s, east of Jerusalem, and within sight of both the Temple Mount and the al-Aqsa Mosque, there lie about 150,000 Jewish graves dating from ancient times through today. Many of the bodies are buried with their feet toward the city, because ancient prophets declared that the resurrection would begin there, and the faithful would rise and follow the Messiah into the Holy City.

So, there is agreement among the main religions that the end of days or time awaits us. I do not know if this is the second coming. All I can do is provide the non-biased, non-religious forecasts of what is unfolding for the signs in the data. I do not dismiss that we will end up in World War III, but I also see that we should expect rising civil unrest and revolutions that will overthrow these pretend elected officials.

The computer agrees there is a great confrontation being thrust upon us as this Great Reset. Our computer shows that this is NOT the end of the world, but indeed a Great Reset where nations will fall but this is more like the final battle against communism. I am not a religious scholar and I am only trying to look at this and rationalize it with our computer forecasts which I do trust.

May 17 2024

The Dow Hits First Target 40,000 – What’s Next?


Posted originally on May 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: It is baffling why you are not on the front page of the WSJ, Barons, London FT, NY Times, and every financial newspaper claiming to be interested in markets. In the ’80s, when the Dow was 1,000, you forecast it would reach 6,000 by 1996. On the day of the 1987 low, you said the market would make new highs by 1989. You forecast the Nikkei high at 40,000 for 1980. Even after the 2007-2009 crash, you said the low would hold, and we would see new highs. In at least 2013, you said the Dow would test 40,000. You have correctly forecasted every crash and every high, yet the pretend main financial press will never report the truth.

You have shown the world that forecasting from a quantitative view rather than opinion is possible. My hat is off to you. You get standing ovations at conferences. You are a world teacher.

See you in London.

LS

REPLY: Thank you. I think the bias stems from what I experienced in school. The physics professor said nothing is random, and in economics class, they said it is random, like a drunk walking in the park staggering back and forth. So, we can follow Marx and Keynes and manipulate society to produce the perfect world.

Barrons
Djow New High Barrons

Even in 2013, the first projection was 40,000. In 2018, I again warned that 40,000 was not the extreme target but the medium range. You have to comprehend that everything is connected. You cannot have the Dow going to 40,000 and nothing else happens. The question now is that with the Neocons pushing for World War III before the economy and Europe also in desperate straight needing war, we have a clash of trends converging where there is nearly $11 trillion in US debt maturing this year, which I warned about on Feb 18, 2024.

ECM Eonomic Confidence Model Public Private MA

Do we get the knee-jerk reaction when people realize we have a DEBT CRISIS about to smack us in the face BEFORE the election? Or do we need war to get the foreigners to buy the debt that China will not? How long will it take people to figure out you need to hide in private assets – not public? That will dictate the length of a knee-jerk correction. This is why it takes a computer to make such projections – not personal opinions.

Time Magazine 2009

History dictates that they will only look at what I have done after Scotty has beamed me up – rarely ever before without a major crisis. That is just the way the prejudices and biases exist in human society. You will never extinguish them. Good and bad, that’s what makes us all human. Still, from time to time, there have been some who reported the forecasts.

Asia Kabushiki Shinbun – February 6 1995
May 17 2024

Dow Passes Record-Breaking 40,000 Midday – Jan 2020 Forecast Comes to Fruition


Posted originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

https://youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo%3Ffeature%3Doembed

The Dow surpassed 40,000 during midday trading for the very first time this Thursday. In a January 2020 interview with Andrew McCreath from BNN Bloomberg I explained that the Dow was heading up. The video was posted with the headline “DOW 40,000” and everyone dismissed my forecast as if it were my own personal opinion. I made similar statements in other interviews, such as my interview with Financial Sense five years ago in August 2019. I reiterated this forecast in a 2021 interview and continued to stick by the computer without relying on personal opinion.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=KxVl-HGYn5o%3Ffeature%3Doembed

I was asked how I knew then that we’d be where we were at now. My answer is the same — I just follow the models.

The Dow was 29240 on the day of the interview with BNN Bloomberg, and while many feared a correction was coming, I explained any dip was likely short-term in nature and that it would need to drop below 19000 to be truly considered a bear market – BUT that fell on deaf ears. Even with the notable COVID dip that soon followed this interview, the market bounced right back to new highs thereafter and the models stayed on track over the long term. We experienced one of the most HATED bull markets in history. Despite all of the turmoil over the years, The Dow consistently went up for over a decade but all the talking heads insisted it would go down.

DOW JONES dollars

So what’s next, as indicated by Socrates? The computer sees the Dow rising to 65,000 by 2032 when we are likely to see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US.

Watch the Dow for it will show you where the international money is flowing. The big players are not interested in small tech or companies that could go under. The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index. The NASDAQ typically reflects retail, often tech-heavy, and usually does not peak at the same time. Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the big money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital based on currency. You will also notice the Dow tends to top out first because the big money tends to pull out first also due to currency.

Capital is flowing like never before, and the smart money is on the move. Socrates users have access to our capital flow heat map that shows where money is moving in real time. The USD remains the last safe haven, and money is pouring into the US.

 

Apr 27 2024

Interview: Are We On the Brink of Economic Collapse


Posted originally on Apr 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Mar 11 2024

The Collapse of a Nation Takes 13 years


Posted originally on Mar 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Legal Persecution

In law, it has been a maxim that bad facts make bad law. Every lawyer knows that. That is why the government will seek the worst case to expand the law and apply it to others. This legal maxim is certainly not new. All of those who go to law school are never taught that this maxim was, according to my research, first stated by Julius Caesar in 63BC during the trial of the Cataline Conspiracy, which was the alleged scheme to over through the government no so different from the allegations against Trump in the January 6th event they have called an “INSURRECTION” to desperately try to apply the 14th Amendment that was written concerning the American Civil War.

In 63 BC, Julius Caesar delivered a speech to the Roman Senate where they had to protect him from corrupt senators like Cicero. This alleged conspiracy was led by the patrician Catiline, whom Cicero set out to prosecute because he was of the opposition. The allegation was that he intended to overthrow the Roman government. Cicero did his best to deny Catline every right a Roman would have in a legal constitutional sense. Cicero whipped up the mob, demanding their execution against the law. When the Roman Senate convened, Cicero stood up and asked what should be done to them, and his co-conspirators shouted out death.

The historian Sallust recorded the incident and tells us that Gaius Julius Caesar stood up and explained that Roman law forbids the execution of Roman citizens even for heinous crimes. He argued that executing the conspirators would thus require the creation of a radical and dangerous precedent in and of itself that would really overthrow the legal foundation of the government. Caesar argued:

“Whatever befalls these prisoners will be well deserved; but you, Fathers of the Senate, are called upon to consider how your action will affect other criminals. All bad precedents have originated in cases which were good; but when the control of the government falls into the hands of men who are incompetent or bad, your new precedent is transferred from those who well deserve and merit such punishment to the undeserving and blameless.”

I have explained that we have entered very dangerous times. Most historians have concluded that the entire conspiracy was invented by Cicero for his own political advantage. The fact did not add up to any true plot that would have even been remotely successful. They were summarily executed after a fierce senate debate without any constitutional rights on December 5th merely on the fake evidence of Cicero.

Mill John Stuart Legal Persecution

What they have unleashed against Trump is EXTREMELY dangerous. The allegations and summary execution of the fake Cataline Conspiracy by Cicero was a turning point that ultimately led to the Civil War and the collapse of the Roman Republic 13 years later. When we reach 2032, it will be also about 13 years from the entire conspiracy that began in 2019 to overthrow the United States as we have known it.

These prosecutions of Trump have done the same damage as the Catline Conspiracy – bad facts make bad precedent. They subjected Trump to two impeachments, and naturally that only provides an incentive to the Republicans to do the same to Biden. We now have confirmation that Fani Willis met with Kamala Harris BEFORE Trump was indicted. In New York, the courts are so corrupt that they are desperately trying to use legal persecution to bankrupt Trump. Even a $91 million award to this politically motivated E Jean Carroll or anyone else with such an absurd judgment would be dismissed by a real judge. There is no relation to any economic loss; she would never have earned that kind of money in her entire lifetime.

New York City should be kicked out of the United States because, like California, it opposes Due Process and everything that the Founding Fathers ever intended. The Rule of Law has collapsed, and with it, our nation, just as the Catline Conspiracy tore the soul out of the rights of Roman citizens. This was just one reason why Caesar crossed the Rubicon. It was the Senate that fled because the people never saw them as worthwhile—just corrupt political to rig the game.

History Repeats because Human Nature Never Changes

Mar 11 2024

A Look Back At Socrates’ Forecasts from January 2020


Posted originally on Mar 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2020 MA on Bloomberg

My January 2020 interview with Andrew McCreath from BNN Bloomberg came up in recent conversation, and I was asked how I knew then that we’d be where we were at now. My answer is the same — I just follow the models. Some unfamiliar with my work merely looked at the headline “DOW 40,000” and dismissed my forecast as if it were my personal opinion. The Dow was 29240 on the day of the interview and while many feared a correction was coming I explained any dip was likely short-term in nature that that it would need to drop below 19000 to be truly considered a bear market and – BUT that fell on deaf ears. Even with the notable COVID dip that soon followed this interview, the market bounced right back to new highs thereafter and the models stayed on track over the long term. We experienced one of the most HATED bull markets in history. Despite all of the turmoil over the years, The Dow consistently went up for over a decade but all the talking heads insisted it would go down.

Now, those same analysts are mad that they missed the entire bull market. The short-term forecast called for a dip in 2020 and a chance to get in on the action (and COVID provided that dip in spades), but I explained that there would not be a change in the long-term trend as my computer indicated we would enter a private wave that would peak in 2024 and go off into a half-8.6-year cycle into 2028. This was all indicated by the computer system as no individual could have foreseen the events that have unfolded over the past four years.

All of the models were heating up for 2024. This is why we focus primarily on the long-term, and closely monitor capital concentration – follow the money. There was trouble in Europe and Asia, so the capital needed to flee, and that safe haven happened to be the US. It is America’s final years as the leading financial capital of the world as historically it always changes. America dethroned Britain after World War II and China is on it’s way to dethrone America after 2032.

I also pointed out that inflation would be the focal point for 2024, leading to interest rates changing and becoming a key factor for central banks globally. Volatility paired with the private wave, where capital must escape the public sector, would also lead to an uptick in the commodity cycle.

The business cycle cannot be manipulated, but it can be analyzed. However, that’s not how most market analysts work.  Long-term, macro  requires looking at every market throughout the globe, studying past behavior through historical patterns in price and time. The models do a tremendous job doing this.

Now, everyone is praising the rising Dow that will touch the 40,000 level. Of course, it is easier to say that now that we are almost there. Again, few believed me back in 2020, but here we are. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US. This is another reason why I watch the Dow a bit more closely than the S&P 500, as it provides a more accurate indicator of the big foreign money piling in from throughout the world.

For those who wrote in asking if I still stand by my claims – yes, the computer is still indicating that we are looking at a Dow that could rise to 65,000 by 2032, when we are likely to  see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide. I wish I could tell you something different.

Feb 27 2024

Forecasting the Future Based on the Past


Posted originally on Feb 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Socrates Monitory Globe

COMMENT #1: I was there at your 2011 WEC. I was dragged along by a friend. I remember well your forecast for war starting in 2014 and your forecast that the Dow would go to 40,000. I thought you were crazy. I bet my friend $100 you would be wrong. I had to pay up. Here we are at 40,000 and the Ukraine war started in 2014. I have to admit, I now see why institutions line up at your door and the government wanted your model.

You are a gift to mankind when we need clarity more than ever.

Thank you. It was the best bet I ever lost.

EP

COMMENT #2: everyone thought you were crazy years ago when you said dow 40000–here we are. it all came true.

ok see you soon

Brent

COMMENT #3: You are the only analyst who is consistent. I appreciate it is not your personal opinion like everyone else. That forecast the Dow would reach 40,000 is here and so is the war.

Stay safe. My whole family now listens to you.

HW

Debasement Gallienus

REPLY: Because my father was a lawyer who always hoped he would put “and son” on the door, I disappointed him in that regard. For whatever reason, I was always fascinated by what made the rise and fall of markets as well as empires, nations, and city-states.  He did teach me about law from probably 7 years old. He handed me Aristotle to read for one summer. I handed that to my son in the family tradition when he became a teenager. Yet he also instilled an interest in history. I bought my first Roman coin for $10, probably when I was 10 to 12 years old. I could hold history in the palm of my hand. I saw the US take silver out of the coins in 1965, and I saw the parallel to Rome and how the same pattern emerged.

Family Trip 1964

I also have to thank him for seeing the future of computers and pushing me into computer engineering, where in the ’60s, we had to study hardware design as well as software. I learned to code in machine language and connected the dots between programming and trading in the ’70s. Taking the family to Europe for the summer of 1964 opened my eyes to the world of currencies since we traveled all over from Sweden to Italy and everything in between.

That all set the stage for this journey I have been on, which I never set out to accomplish. Nevertheless, because of that worldview instilled in me by my father, I saw the world of finance, and that 1964 trip taught me, moving from one current to the next, that my home currency was really a mental language of value. I would have to listen to the price in whatever currency and then convert that in my head back to dollars. Only then could I rationalize if it was a fair price or not.

MA Socrates Prison

Visiting jail cell of Athens

Thus, I designed Socrates to look at the world and determine who will do what, for everyone will make a judgment call based upon their home currency, which is a language of value in their head. Here, you can see how the same market appears differently depending on your currency. I chose the name Socrates because he was really accused of knowing too much. They put him on trial for influencing the youth and executed him for sharing that knowledge.

Martin Armstrong Margaret Thatcher

All of that set me on the path to where I am today, but it also taught me a lesson that opinions are not the way to forecast. I probably have more experience than most. I have been to White House dinners, been on a board of a bank, met with board members of IMF and heads of state, addressed boards of the largest banks internationally, been an international hedge fund manager, and been called in by so many central banks as well as testified before Congress and been called in for just about every financial crisis around the world. That’s just the shortlist.

Because I specialized in currency, that has put me in the middle of almost everything since the 1970s.  Currency was the mover and shakers behind the politics of the world. It was far more than simply trading buy here and sell there. It is why the CFTC had even subpoenaed me, demanding a list of all my clients worldwide so they could prove I manipulated the world because I was too influential in their view. I defended in court and won. They were always seeking to shut down the forecasting.

History repeats because humanity never learns. These people who push for war have no end game. Nobody ever seems to ask – what comes next. They took down Saddam Hussein and never once asked: What would happen if you overthrew a government?

They are doing that again with Russia. Victoria Nuland is highly dangerous. She personally hates Russians, and nobody has a view of what would happen if you overthrew the Russian government. Would you then have nukes for sale on the black market?

I have been behind the curtain. I have never witnessed such evil and incompetent people in charge. I suppose this is necessary as we head into 2032. I want to stress that these forecasts are NOT my opinion. They are not based on anything other than the raw economics and capital flows. They are not based on religious philosophy, nor did I introduce astrology. They are the objective view of the computer, the ONLY fully functioning AI system in the world monitoring the global economy with a track record of nearly 50 years.

Yes, people are saying I should float it now. It would be worth hundreds of billions. I don’t have the time or the energy to take that on now, and I have more than enough to support me until Scotty beams me up. Nobody respectful has been beating down my door who would maintain my dream to ensure it helps the world – not a small WEF billionaire click.

Jan 31 2024

Interview: Martin Armstrong’s Socrates 2024 Election and Economic Forecasts — Part 1


Posted originally on Jan 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=NVkCXDyu8DA%3Ffeature%3Doembed 
Join Kerry Lutz and renowned economist Martin Armstrong for a captivating discussion centered around the Socrates computer model’s uncanny accuracy in predicting political and market trends since 1985. Discover the model’s compelling projection of a 61% chance for a Republican victory in the upcoming 2024 election and its implications for the political landscape.

Delve into the erosion of confidence in government, potential election irregularities, and the profound impact of deviations from historical election norms. Gain insights into the influence of various political agendas, including discussions about veiled threats and the involvement of influential figures like Klaus Schwab and George Soros in funding Democratic elections.

Transitioning to market forecasts, Martin Armstrong reaffirms his earlier prediction regarding the crucial turning point in January. Explore the far-reaching effects of global capital trends on stock markets, with a focus on how geopolitical events shape investment decisions and influence various stock market indexes.

The conversation also tackles pressing economic issues, such as the potential consequences of increased taxes and selective debt default, the dollar’s reserve currency status, and the challenges faced by farmers and migration trends within the United States. Despite technical challenges, Kerry Lutz and Martin Armstrong exhibit adaptability and resilience, making this discussion a must-watch for those seeking insights into the ever-evolving world of politics and finance.